World Cup knockout draw

[dickiedawg]

We discussed in a thread during the group stage that we got a fairly favorable pairing with Group F, and the numbers bear that out.
I'm basing this on fivethirtyeight data that gives the US odds against every team left if they were to meet in the knockout stage.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-u-s-s-odds-of-beating-belgium-and-every-other-world-cup-opponent/

Of the 8 group winners, our odds to beat Belgium (41%) are the second best. Only Costa Rica would have been a better matchup for us, we would actually be favored at 53%.
As for the rankings, the FIFA world rankings have Belgium at 11 and USA at 13. On its face, you'd call that about a toss up, but ESPN's Soccer Power Index has Belgium at 9 and USA at 18.
So while odds are decent to make the Quarterfinals, making the Semis will be tough. Argentina, our likely opponent if we make it past Belgium, is the second worst matchup for us, as we would have a 20.2% chance of advancing. Still, we've accomplished a lot thus far and have a realistic chance at doing even more.



I did some more nerdy spreadsheet stuff that's probably not really that interesting. I wanted to see what the field would look like if the teams were seeded 1-16, averaging the FIFA and SPI rankings to seed them. Somewhat interestingly, USA would be the 11 seed, meeting the 6th seed Belgium. Plus, our winner would also likely face Argentina.

Just for discussion's sake, here is what that looked like:

1 Brazil 1A FIFA 3 SPI 1 2
16 Nigeria 2F FIFA 44 SPI 26 35

8 Chile 2B FIFA 14 SPI 7 10.5
9 Switz. 2E FIFA 6 SPI 15 10.5

4 Colombia 1C FIFA 8 SPI 4 6
12 Mexico* 2A FIFA 20 SPI 14 17

5 Uruguay 2D FIFA 7 SPI 10 8.5
13 Greece* 2C FIFA 12 SPI 29 20.5



2 Germany 1G FIFA 2 SPI 3 2.5
15 Algeria 2F FIFA 22 SPI 30 26

7 Neth'lands 1B FIFA 15 SPI 6 10.5
10 France 1E FIFA 17 SPI 5 11

3 Argentina 1F FIFA 5 SPI 2 3.5
14 Costa Rica 1D FIFA 28 SPI 21 24.5

6 Belgium 1F FIFA 11 SPI 9 10
11 USA 2G FIFA 13 SPI 18 15.5

*I swapped Mexico and Greece to avoid a rematch from group play.

This obviously benefits the higher seeds and provides some quality matchups in the round of 16, but the random draw is fun.

[curmudgeon]

A+ for nerdiness
F for soccer

[TheRef]

dickie, I like it. I like it a lot.

[DudyDawg]

Really intriguing stuff thanks for posting. I like our matchup, with Belgium and even with Argentina should we advance.

[ShotgunDawg]

I've watched most minutes of this tournament and have few thoughts.

1. If we can't beat Belgium then we deserve to be gone.

2. Argentina is dangerous but they don't scare me like Germany, Brazil, or The Netherlands. Argentina is a lot like Texas A&M. They have one really bad ass player, but if you can contain him, their defense sucks and the rest of the team is rather average. We can beat them, no matter what the odds say. Argentina has been a one trick pony thus far. Contain Messi, and I think we win.

3. I think today's game against Germany was great for the United States. Yes we lost, but we got better under adverse circumstances. First off, Germany is probably the most organized, diverse, and efficient team in this competition, and they force you to be organized on defense. One thing people forget is that World Cup team's players don't play together all that often, so playing a team like Germany, that forces complete defensive organization and communication, can be very very helpful going forward. Throw in the fact that we had 1 less day rest after playing in the "hot house of Manous", we were coming off a heartbreaking loss, and that fact that it was flooding, and you realize that the this team that wasn't supposed to make it out of the group stage, must feel like they have everything to gain and nothing to lose going forward. I foresee them playing free, efficient, and without pressure against Belgium. I think our best soccer is ahead of us in this tournament.

[AlmostPositive]

I've been watching, and now I'm through watching. I'll start back if and when

1. They can keep faked injuries to under 40 per half.
2. They figure out when the game is actually over and let us know in real time. No more stoppage time, or whatever.

[Dawg61]

Throwing world rankings out the window I'm going to seed who I think are playing like 1-16 right now.

1. Holland
2. Germany
3. France
4. Brazil
5. Mexico
6. Argentina
7. Chile
8. Costa Rica
9. Swiss
10. USA
11. Belgium
12. Colombia
13. Uruguay
14. Greece
15. Algeria
16. Nigeria

Feel free to disagree I know you will

[ShotgunDawg]

Throwing world rankings out the window I'm going to seed who I think are playing like 1-16 right now.

1. Holland
2. Germany
3. France
4. Brazil
5. Mexico
6. Argentina
7. Chile
8. Costa Rica
9. Swiss
10. USA
11. Belgium
12. Colombia
13. Uruguay
14. Greece
15. Algeria
16. Nigeria

Feel free to disagree I know you will

Top Group

1. Germany
2. Holland
3. Brazil

Second Group
4. France
5. Argentina
6. Chile
7. USA - CONCACAF champions and came out of toughest group.
8. Belgium
9. Swiss
10. Mexico - I can't rank Mexico ahead of the USA after what happened in qualifying. We are better them and have been better for some time now.

Third Group

11. Costa Rica
12. Uruguay without Suarez
13. Rest of them. Irrelevant.

[mstatefan91]

I've been watching, and now I'm through watching. I'll start back if and when

1. They can keep faked injuries to under 40 per half.
Agreed. This needs to be addressed.
2. They figure out when the game is actually over and let us know in real time. No more stoppage time, or whatever.
Guess we won't see you back. This will never happen. Stoppage time is a part of the game and will always be a part of the game.

Bolded

[smootness]

Throwing world rankings out the window I'm going to seed who I think are playing like 1-16 right now.

1. Holland
2. Germany
3. France
4. Brazil
5. Mexico
6. Argentina
7. Chile
8. Costa Rica
9. Swiss
10. USA
11. Belgium
12. Colombia
13. Uruguay
14. Greece
15. Algeria
16. Nigeria

Feel free to disagree I know you will

I would rank them this way for the purposes of this tournament, considering the location:

1. Brazil
2. Germany
3. Argentina
4. France
5. Netherlands
6. Chile
7. Colombia
8. Belgium
9. United States
10. Costa Rica
11. Mexico
12. Switzerland
13. Uruguay
14. Algeria
15. Greece
16. Nigeria

I think Brazil, Argentina, and Chile will all begin to look better and better as teams open it up more going for the win as opposed to things like we saw with Iran just playing for the 0-0 draw in group play. And I also think they'll continue to look better relative to some of these European teams given the conditions; I think there will be some attrition, and the South American teams are better equipped to handle it.

I also think Netherlands' legs will begin to get a little tired as their better players are older than most.

The issue is, most of the top teams are on one half of the bracket, so the results won't end up completely aligned with this no matter what.

My picks for the results from here are:

Quarters - Brazil vs. Colombia; France vs. Germany; Netherlands vs. Costa Rica; Argentina vs. USA
Semis - Brazil vs. Germany; Netherlands vs. Argentina
Final - Brazil vs. Argentina
Champs - Brazil (though part of me hopes Messi finally cashes in)

[Intramural All-American]

Y'all must not have watched a bit of Colombia if you rank them 12 and "Irrelevant". They have been a top 5 team in this tournament. Brazil has not been impressive other than Neymar. Same with Argentina. Also, Argentina lost Sergio Aguero for the rest of the tournament.

My rankings based on what I've seen:

1: Holland (Scary good- 10 goals so far)
2: Colombia (Scary good without Falcao, even- 9 goals so far)
3: Germany (Scary good, how did they not beat Ghana?)
4: France (Looked beatable in the third game, but juggernauts in the first two)
5: Brazil (Haven't clicked, yet, but looked to start gelling 2nd half of Cameroon who was the worst team in the tournament)
6: Costa Rica (Surprisingly, beat Uruguay and Italy, drew England)
7: Mexico (Have been fabulous defensively)
8: Chile (Just a solid team)
9: Argentina (Conceded twice to Nigeria, almost shutout by Iran)
10: Swiss (looked really good other than France)
11: Belgium (Lackluster, but have found a way to get 9 points)
12: Uruguay (but will fall without Suarez)
13: USA (Outplayed in 2 of our 3 games, and our best player Bradley has looked very poor)
14: Algeria (Surprise of the tournament. Won't surprise teams in the knockouts, though)
15: Nigeria (Bosnia and Herzegovina got screwed and should be here)
16: Greece (Just awful to watch, why did Ivory Coast have to foul Jesus?)

[smootness]

Y'all must not have watched a bit of Colombia if you rank them 12 and "Irrelevant". They have been a top 5 team in this tournament. Brazil has not been impressive other than Neymar. Same with Argentina. Also, Argentina lost Sergio Aguero for the rest of the tournament.

My rankings based on what I've seen:

1: Holland (Scary good- 10 goals so far)
2: Colombia (Scary good without Falcao, even- 9 goals so far)
3: Germany (Scary good, how did they not beat Ghana?)
4: France (Looked beatable in the third game, but juggernauts in the first two)
5: Brazil (Haven't clicked, yet, but looked to start gelling 2nd half of Cameroon who was the worst team in the tournament)
6: Costa Rica (Surprisingly, beat Uruguay and Italy, drew England)
7: Mexico (Have been fabulous defensively)
8: Chile (Just a solid team)
9: Argentina (Conceded twice to Nigeria, almost shutout by Iran)
10: Swiss (looked really good other than France)
11: Belgium (Lackluster, but have found a way to get 9 points)
12: Uruguay (but will fall without Suarez)
13: USA (Outplayed in 2 of our 3 games, and our best player Bradley has looked very poor)
14: Algeria (Surprise of the tournament. Won't surprise teams in the knockouts, though)
15: Nigeria (Bosnia and Herzegovina got screwed and should be here)
16: Greece (Just awful to watch, why did Ivory Coast have to foul Jesus?)

Just my opinion, but I think you're putting way too much emphasis on how things have looked so far.

You're crazy if you think Brazil has the 5th best chance of winning this tournament. I agree that they haven't looked great, but this is the same team that made a mockery of the Confederation's Cup and looked amazing in the process. They do need to think long and hard about benching at least one of Fred and Hulk, but they're ridiculously talented, and they're at home, where they haven't lost a competitive match since 1975.

Colombia has looked very good, but they also were in a group with nobody to seriously challenge them.

Teams always look good or bad at certain points but generally the results will end up being mostly what you would expect given the reputation and history of the country. Argentina looked unbelievable in the group stage in 2010 before getting completely smoked by Germany in the quarters. Spain looked shaky at best, with a loss against the Swiss and unconvincing wins over Chile and Honduras before looking completely in control the rest of the tournament and winning the thing.

Costa Rica won't look as good once we get into the knockout stage, Brazil and Argentina will pick it up.

Argentina's defense definitely has serious issues, you're right to question that. I just think they're going to suddenly look great once the games open up more and they go all-out on the attack looking for goals. As Klinsmann said, the knockout stage is a different deal.

[Intramural All-American]

Just my opinion, but I think you're putting way too much emphasis on how things have looked so far.

You're crazy if you think Brazil has the 5th best chance of winning this tournament. I agree that they haven't looked great, but this is the same team that made a mockery of the Confederation's Cup and looked amazing in the process. They do need to think long and hard about benching at least one of Fred and Hulk, but they're ridiculously talented, and they're at home, where they haven't lost a competitive match since 1975.

Colombia has looked very good, but they also were in a group with nobody to seriously challenge them.

Teams always look good or bad at certain points but generally the results will end up being mostly what you would expect given the reputation and history of the country. Argentina looked unbelievable in the group stage in 2010 before getting completely smoked by Germany in the quarters. Spain looked shaky at best, with a loss against the Swiss and unconvincing wins over Chile and Honduras before looking completely in control the rest of the tournament and winning the thing.

Costa Rica won't look as good once we get into the knockout stage, Brazil and Argentina will pick it up.

Argentina's defense definitely has serious issues, you're right to question that. I just think they're going to suddenly look great once the games open up more and they go all-out on the attack looking for goals. As Klinsmann said, the knockout stage is a different deal.

Oh I agree with you, and I probably should have specified better than I did. My rankings were based on the teams performances to date, rather than who I think has the best chance going forward. It was in response to Dawg61 saying he was ranking 1-16 as they were playing right now.

I think Brazil, Argentina, and Germany are the best bets to win it with the Dutch and France on tier B. However, I wouldn't sleep on Colombia, they have looked fantastic even for the teams they played. Costa Rica have looked great, but I definitely don't think they are the 6th favorite by any means.

[smootness]

Oh I agree with you, and I probably should have specified better than I did. My rankings were based on the teams performances to date, rather than who I think has the best chance going forward. It was in response to Dawg61 saying he was ranking 1-16 as they were playing right now.

I think Brazil, Argentina, and Germany are the best bets to win it with the Dutch and France on tier B. However, I wouldn't sleep on Colombia, they have looked fantastic even for the teams they played. Costa Rica have looked great, but I definitely don't think they are the 6th favorite by any means.

Ok, gotcha. The thing that makes me think Colombia could make some noise is having James Rodriguez, he's been fantastic. But based on the draw, I don't see any way possible they make it past the quarters.

[DownwardDawg]

It looked like Germany could have beaten us 5-0 if they wanted to. I've grown to love the World Cup and I really look forward to it, but it's the only time I watch soccer. (so far) But to my very untrained eye, it looked to me like Germany was toying with us. Just going through the motions.

[dickiedawg]

I wouldn't say they were "toying" with us, but it was very evident they were the superior team. There was never a time where it really felt like we had a chance.
For my money, Germany and Brazil are the two best teams in the tournament without question, and it's a shame they're on the same side of the bracket. Then again, a potential Argentina-Brazil final would be epic, too. Also, if Brazil wins it all it will have earned it, having faced the Nos. 7, 4/10, and 3 teams in SPI just to get to the final.