Hunter Renfore

[MaxedOutMaroon]

Sorry to add to the many of these, but I haven't seen it mentioned. Renfroe will be promoted to AA after All-Star break for minors

[TheRef]

Here's the official announcement from the Padres website.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140617&content_id=80205736&notebook_id=80212226&vkey=notebook_sd&c_id=sd

[Dawg61]

Awesome!! One step closer. Teams do sometimes promote from AA straight to the majors too. It isn't unheard of. Puig got brought up straight from AA for example.

[TheRef]

Awesome!! One step closer. Teams do sometimes promote from AA straight to the majors too. It isn't unheard of. Puig got brought up straight from AA for example.

Braves do it all the time for their positional players.

[War Machine Dawg]

Braves do it all the time for their positional players.

That was before they moved AAA from Richmond to Gwinnett. They'd also use Pearl to stash guys like Chipper for their final rehab before bringing them up. Now everyone goes to Gwinnett.

[smootness]

That was before they moved AAA from Richmond to Gwinnett. They'd also use Pearl to stash guys like Chipper for their final rehab before bringing them up. Now everyone goes to Gwinnett.

They still do it. Simmons never played in Gwinnett, Heyward and Gattis both technically played there but only for a few games each.

[Todd4State]

Awesome!! One step closer. Teams do sometimes promote from AA straight to the majors too. It isn't unheard of. Puig got brought up straight from AA for example.

Pump the brakes a little bit. What you are saying is true about teams promoting from AA- but it's also not the norm either.

His play will dictate where he goes. More than likely he will have to go to AAA for most of next year assuming he does well in AA.

Could Hunter get called up to MLB in September? Possibly. But I would say that the odds are he will go to the Arizona Fall League and if he does well there, maybe get invited to MLB camp in spring training before ultimately going to AAA.

Now that I have been Debbie Downer- I do think that Hunter will make it up by 2015 at some point. Probably around the All-Star break if I had to make a guess.

[shoeless joe]

The way the MLBs collective bargaining works it is economically smarter to bring a top prospect up later in the yr versus having them start the yr with the big club. I believe if they begin their first year in the bigs they become arbitration eligible a year early which could cost the team some big money later on. Someone else can probably shed more light with better details...but because of this I would say best case scenario is he get a shot with padres mid-late next year. That's contingent on him continuing to do well of course.

[smootness]

He's 1-3 so far in his first game in San Antonio. So does this count as him hitting better than .250 at AA or higher?

[Homedawg]

He's 1-3 so far in his first game in San Antonio. So does this count as him hitting better than .250 at AA or higher?

It does if your will James. Unless it works against him, then the sample size is too small. Amazing how Daniel garner bs quit after his babe Ruth start. Could t get him to shut up. Now crickets......sorry not trying to hi jack a good thread.

[Homedawg]

The way the MLBs collective bargaining works it is economically smarter to bring a top prospect up later in the yr versus having them start the yr with the big club. I believe if they begin their first year in the bigs they become arbitration eligible a year early which could cost the team some big money later on. Someone else can probably shed more light with better details...but because of this I would say best case scenario is he get a shot with padres mid-late next year. That's contingent on him continuing to do well of course.

Arbitration and free agency are based on days service. So, yea starting them later definitely gives the club an extra year

[Pioneer Dawg]

It does if your will James. Unless it works against him, then the sample size is too small. Amazing how Daniel garner bs quit after his babe Ruth start. Could t get him to shut up. Now crickets......sorry not trying to hi jack a good thread.

You still have this sign posted in your head

http://thisistwitchy.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/free-rent.jpg

[Pioneer Dawg]

Garner still leads his league in HR.. Only 5 K's in 33 plate appearances (15% K rate.. **slightly** off Rea's pace)

Small sample but Garner has just a .150 BABIP so far this summer which will obviously greatly rise.

5 of Garner's 6 hits have been for extra bases. While only hitting .214 thru 7 games (because of BABIP, not K's) he is STILL second in their league in slugging.

[Todd4State]

Garner still leads his league in HR.. Only 5 K's in 33 plate appearances (15% K rate.. **slightly** off Rea's pace)

Small sample but Garner has just a .150 BABIP so far this summer which will obviously greatly rise.

5 of Garner's 6 hits have been for extra bases. While only hitting .214 thru 7 games (because of BABIP, not K's) he is STILL second in their league in slugging.

The fact that he is making contact is improvement to me. That was his main problem last year.

[ShotgunDawg]

The way the MLBs collective bargaining works it is economically smarter to bring a top prospect up later in the yr versus having them start the yr with the big club. I believe if they begin their first year in the bigs they become arbitration eligible a year early which could cost the team some big money later on. Someone else can probably shed more light with better details...but because of this I would say best case scenario is he get a shot with padres mid-late next year. That's contingent on him continuing to do well of course.

Correct

Once you are promoted the big leagues, a team controls you for 6 years before you are eligible to become a free agent. During the first 3 years of those 6 years, the team is only required to play you the league minimum salary of $500,000 for the full amount of service days. MLB plays 162 games, but, due off days and the all-star break, players are paid by the number of days they are on the major roster. There are 183 or so days in Major League year, and if you are called up after the start of the season, you get paid a "pro-rated" amount of the $500,000 due to how many days you are on the Major League roster.

After year number 3, you are arbitration eligible, where, instead of making the league minimum, your stats will be taken into account and you will receive a salary offer in the ballpark of what your stats say you are worth.

Therefore, there are two reasons you don't allow a first year player to make the big league roster out of Spring Training:

1. If brought up before a certain date, this season it was April 11th, the team only controls the player for 6 years. However, if brought up after April 11th, the team gets an additional 7th year of control over the player before he is eligible for free agency. A full Major League season in service days is 172 days, but by waiting two weeks to bring up a prospect, they can only reach 166 service days thus making that year not count towards free agency. So basically, by not allowing a prospect to make the opening day roster, the team controls the player for an additional year.

2. Players become arbitration eligible after 3 years of service time, but some players, known as "Super Twos" become arbitration earlier if they qualify according to the following criteria:
1. They have less than three years of service time, but more than two.
2. If they rank within the top 22% of all two year players in service time.

So basically, to preserve arbitration till after the 3rd year, teams hold back prospects till a date that changes every year, but usually falls in late May and June.

So that teams can save money and control the rights to the player for an additional year, this is why teams usually bring up top prospects this time of year and not out of spring training, even when they were the best player at their position in spring training.

[Todd4State]

Correct

Once you are promoted the big leagues, a team controls you for 6 years before you are eligible to become a free agent. During the first 3 years of those 6 years, the team is only required to play you the league minimum salary of $500,000 for the full amount of service days. MLB plays 162 games, but, due off days and the all-star break, players are paid by the number of days they are on the major roster. There are 183 or so days in Major League year, and if you are called up after the start of the season, you get paid a "pro-rated" amount of the $500,000 due to how many days you are on the Major League roster.

After year number 3, you are arbitration eligible, where, instead of making the league minimum, your stats will be taken into account and you will receive a salary offer in the ballpark of what your stats say you are worth.

Therefore, there are two reasons you don't allow a first year player to make the big league roster out of Spring Training:

1. If brought up before a certain date, this season it was April 11th, the team only controls the player for 6 years. However, if brought up after April 11th, the team gets an additional 7th year of control over the player before he is eligible for free agency. A full Major League season in service days is 172 days, but by waiting two weeks to bring up a prospect, they can only reach 166 service days thus making that year not count towards free agency. So basically, by not allowing a prospect to make the opening day roster, the team controls the player for an additional year.

2. Players become arbitration eligible after 3 years of service time, but some players become arbitration earlier if they qualify according to the following criteria:
1. They have less than three years of service time, but more than two.
2. If they rank within the top 22% of all two year players in service time.

So basically, to preserve arbitration till after the 3rd year, teams hold back prospects till a date that changes every year, but usually falls in late May and June.

So that teams can save money and control the rights to the player for an additional year, this is why teams usually bring up top prospects this time of year and not out of spring training, even when they were the best player at their position in spring training.

AKA the super two rule.

[ShotgunDawg]

AKA the super two rule.

Exactly, because of these rules, if Renfroe continues to play well, don't expect to see him before June of next season in the big leagues. Many teams like to skip their top prospects going to AAA because AAA is a negative place. Most teams use AAA as "holding tank" of 4A type players in order to provide depth on the 40 man roster. However, due to this, many AAA players are bitter because they aren't in the big league when they think they should be and, in many cases, would be if they played for another organization.

Furthermore, if a prospect is clearly the best player at his position in the organization, AAA can be a place where he is bored, lacks motivation, and is just waiting for his call to the big leagues. AA is BY FAR the best league to watch in minor league baseball. That is where the big time prospects usually play.

[Dawg61]

I'd agree with you if it wasn't the Padres but the Padres suck balls and need something to show their fans this September to sell season tickets and keep excitement up for improvement. Renfroe is their first round draft pick and he's mashing. If the Cubs call up Kris Bryant I could see Renfroe getting a chance in September. Just me but I think he's better than some of their starting OF right now. The Padres are bad.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'd agree with you if it wasn't the Padres but the Padres suck balls and need something to show their fans this September to sell season tickets and keep excitement up for improvement. Renfroe is their first round draft pick and he's mashing. If the Cubs call up Kris Bryant I could see Renfroe getting a chance in September. Just me but I think he's better than some of their starting OF right now. The Padres are bad.

That would be a brutal baseball decision, and a trend of brutal decisions is how GMs get fired. Winning games draws fans, and good players win games. Thus the more years you control good players, the better chance you have to win. No chance he gets called up this year.

I also doubt the Cubs will call up Bryant. They are no where close to winning and it's not worth starting his service time clock now, just to win a few more games and actually hurt themselves by lowering their pick in the 2015 draft.

The Cubs will likely call up Bryant, Baez, and Alcantara in June of the 2015 season. Theo Epstein is a very smart guy, and wouldn't make such an amateur mistake.

[Todd4State]

Exactly, because of these rules, if Renfroe continues to play well, don't expect to see him before June of next season in the big leagues. Many teams like to skip their top prospects going to AAA because AAA is a negative place. Most teams use AAA as "holding tank" of 4A type players in order to provide depth on the 40 man roster. However, due to this, many AAA players are bitter because they aren't in the big league when they think they should be and, in many cases, would be if they played for another organization.

Furthermore, if a prospect is clearly the best player at his position in the organization, AAA can be a place where he is bored, lacks motivation, and is just waiting for his call to the big leagues. AA is BY FAR the best league to watch in minor league baseball. That is where the big time prospects usually play.

As a fan, I enjoy a AAA game every now and then. But I do agree- if you like prospects then AA is the place to watch.

The best part about AAA is seeing a guy like Manny Ramirez and then going "oh THAT'S where he is now."

[Todd4State]

I'd agree with you if it wasn't the Padres but the Padres suck balls and need something to show their fans this September to sell season tickets and keep excitement up for improvement. Renfroe is their first round draft pick and he's mashing. If the Cubs call up Kris Bryant I could see Renfroe getting a chance in September. Just me but I think he's better than some of their starting OF right now. The Padres are bad.

The Padres are bad. And their fans will roast them even more if they bring up Renfroe and end up having to pay more during his arbitration years.

And I love Renfroe, but no way is he ready right now for MLB or better than what the Padres have right now. Now in 3-4 years he will be, but right now he would probably be overwhelmed like he was when he was a freshman for us.

Kris Bryant is legit though. I think he will be the best third baseman in baseball three-four years from now. He'll be up next year.

[Pioneer Dawg]

The fact that he is making contact is improvement to me. That was his main problem last year.

Maybe with consistent playing time he is actually around the 18% K rate guy I said he was, which is what I've been saying the whole damn time..

His main problem was not getting regular AB's.. That's it. The people saying he would keep K'ing at that rate and more than Rea are dead wrong.

[smootness]

Maybe with consistent playing time he is actually around the 18% K rate guy I said he was, which is what I've been saying the whole damn time..

His main problem was not getting regular AB's.. That's it. The people saying he would keep K'ing at that rate and more than Rea are dead wrong.

Using fall and summer stats to predict what would happen in the SEC is absurd. No on is saying he would have continued to K at a 75% rate. But suggesting that he would have quickly dropped back down to 18% after beginning at 75% because he K'd at 18% in the fall is ridiculous.

[Todd4State]

Maybe with consistent playing time he is actually around the 18% K rate guy I said he was, which is what I've been saying the whole damn time..

His main problem was not getting regular AB's.. That's it. The people saying he would keep K'ing at that rate and more than Rea are dead wrong.

In 150 more AB's, Rea stuck out only 35 more times than Garner.

The odds that Garner would have not only eclipsed but would have absolutely blown away Rea in strike outs are let's just say- better than average even if his K rate decreased in 150 AB's. Now- I KNOW in your twisted little head you are going to assume that Garner would have somehow dropped down to 18% with "consistent playing time"- but the odds of that happening are slim.

But you know how you earn consistent playing time? Don't strike out every AB.

Edit to say- I know you are about to say something about PA's vs AB's- but again, if you want to haggle over Garner's 4-5 more PA's knock yourself out.

[Todd4State]

Using fall and summer stats to predict what would happen in the SEC is absurd. No on is saying he would have continued to K at a 75% rate. But suggesting that he would have quickly dropped back down to 18% after beginning at 75% because he K'd at 18% in the fall is ridiculous.

Exactly. I don't think he would have continued to K at 75% in all likelihood, but for him to drop down to 18% would mean that he would have to not strike out almost the rest of the season over 150-175 plate appearances. You would think a stats person would understand that.

But somehow, we're dead wrong.

Hell, I bet if Pythagoras ghost posted on this board and agreed with us, he would STILL tell us that we are wrong. Even though probability is obviously on our side.

[Pioneer Dawg]

How hard is it to understand... His CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME K PERCENTAGE is 18%... NOT SAYING he would have gotten it down to 18% because OBVIOUSLY he wasn't consistently playing... Some comprehension/logic skills on here are insanely low.

Using many fall/spring numbers isn't worthwhile... K% doesn't apply. This can be determined in limited plate appearances, LIKE THE FALL. That will always be a great predictor for that one specific category. Would you take batting average of a fall for a predictor? No. But K%? Yes.

[Todd4State]

How hard is it to understand... His CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME K PERCENTAGE is 18%... NOT SAYING he would have gotten it down to 18% because OBVIOUSLY he wasn't consistently playing... Some comprehension/logic skills on here are insanely low.

Using many fall/spring numbers isn't worthwhile... K% doesn't apply. This can be determined in limited plate appearances, LIKE THE FALL. That will always be a great predictor for that one specific category. Would you take batting average of a fall for a predictor? No. But K%? Yes.

Honestly, I wouldn't use ANY stat from the fall.

There's a reason why no baseball person anywhere uses spring training stats or scrimmage stats. Fall ball is the college baseball version of MLB spring training and scrimmages. It doesn't mean a lot because you are facing walk-ons, regular starters who are sometimes being told to work on specific things like a change-up or are starting with different counts like a 3-1 count.

Brayden Jones led us in home runs one year. Luke Laster almost got left off the 35 man roster- and now he's in the Cape Cod League after stabilizing our rotation. And sure, some guys do well and then go on to do well for us in the spring too- but you have to take it with a grain of salt.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Honestly, I wouldn't use ANY stat from the fall.

There's a reason why no baseball person anywhere uses spring training stats or scrimmage stats. Fall ball is the college baseball version of MLB spring training and scrimmages. It doesn't mean a lot because you are facing walk-ons, regular starters who are sometimes being told to work on specific things like a change-up or are starting with different counts like a 3-1 count.

Brayden Jones led us in home runs one year. Luke Laster almost got left off the 35 man roster- and now he's in the Cape Cod League after stabilizing our rotation. And sure, some guys do well and then go on to do well for us in the spring too- but you have to take it with a grain of salt.

Yeah you have to actually watch the fall too. Which is what I do. Combining the numbers and the visual I called for Heck to be our SS this year and was calling for Detz to be in the lineup the year before. I could see Lindgren having a huge year this year. I predicted a Robson big series vs Bama last year. I called a Texas A&M sweep a month before it happened when we were struggling. I've got a pretty good idea when I say these things and I'm saying Garner should have hit way more and we need him this next year.

[Todd4State]

Yeah you have to actually watch the fall too. Which is what I do. Combining the numbers and the visual I called for Heck to be our SS this year and was calling for Detz to be in the lineup the year before. I could see Lindgren having a huge year this year. I predicted a Robson big series vs Bama last year. I called a Texas A&M sweep a month before it happened when we were struggling. I've got a pretty good idea when I say these things and I'm saying Garner should have hit way more and we need him this next year.

To be fair, you also said that we shouldn't have pitched Ross as much last year when he had an All-American year prediction because of his SIERA and that never came to fruition.

We also weren't struggling when we played Texas A&M- we had just won a series from Florida the week before and then won the Governor's Cup on Tuesday before heading out to College Station.

And I'm sure you will try to rub it in my face as Garner improves as he goes along- which he will- because I know how this Internet message boarding thing works. But that doesn't change the fact that he simply wasn't ready for the SEC as a freshman and his play dictated that. Reid Humphreys didn't get consistent playing time and has somehow managed to not strike out every at bat. Actually, most people that aren't getting consistent playing time still manage to make contact a fair amount of the time- and that seems to be getting lost here. You have to earn your playing time and Garner didn't do that.

That said, I'm pulling for him to improve because it's good for him and good for us to do so. But as of now, he still has a ways to go and he's not helping himself being a DH only guy. IF Robson comes back, which I think he will but certainly remains to be seen how healthy he is, Reid Humphreys will be the DH in all likelihood next year, which means Garner probably won't start again. Now, if Robson is out, Garner will probably be the DH because Humphreys will probably end up in LF.

And I don't think you can rule out Dylan Ingram, Rooker, or Swinarski as DH candidates either.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Didn't say we shouldn't pitch Ross as much. Just that he would show regression.. Which happened.

[smootness]

Yeah you have to actually watch the fall too. Which is what I do. Combining the numbers and the visual I called for Heck to be our SS this year and was calling for Detz to be in the lineup the year before. I could see Lindgren having a huge year this year. I predicted a Robson big series vs Bama last year. I called a Texas A&M sweep a month before it happened when we were struggling. I've got a pretty good idea when I say these things and I'm saying Garner should have hit way more and we need him this next year.

There's someone else who watches them daily as well...Cohen. Obviously he saw the same things you did, which is why he put those players in those positions. Yet he didn't play Garner much, when it was obvious Garner gave us one thing we lacked, which was power. Now why would that be? Was Cohen purposely trying to make our lineup weaker? Or was Garner striking out too much and showing limited plate discipline and pitch recognition when he finally got into the SEC?

It's hilarious to me that you say you can use K% from the fall and predict that a player will strike out at the same rate in the SEC, but BA? Of course not, that would be ridiculous.

Can you also take someone's K% from batting practice and extrapolate that?

Jason Heyward's K rate was never close to 20% in the minors over a full year. Once he hit the bigs? Over 20% his first two years. Why? Because he saw tougher pitching. Period.

[Pioneer Dawg]

It's hilarious to me that you say you can use K% from the fall and predict that a player will strike out at the same rate in the SEC, but BA? Of course not, that would be ridiculous..

It's a proven fact that it takes many many more plate appearances for avg to align than K%. That is not debatable. Has to do with the ball in play/luck factor.

A thinking person should understand this.