Let's Play the "What if..." Game

[TheRef]

So this one will concern our possibilities if we make it out of the Group Stage and into the knockout stage.

Group G is matched up with Group H for the knockout round. Now let's assume that Germany gets #1 in G and we get #2. Our likely opponent is either Belgium or Russia. We will have a better idea of that after today. But irregardless, we might have gotten the easiest draw for the first Knockout game. We could easily makes the Quarterfinals at this stage. Just nice playing the what if game.

Thoughts? Predictions? Analysis?

[jumbo]

that is pretty favorable. I posted in the game thread, but I think a draw against Portugal is really all we need assuming Germany beats Ghana.

[messageboardsuperhero]

that is pretty favorable. I posted in the game thread, but I think a draw against Portugal is really all we need assuming Germany beats Ghana.

Yep. A draw against Portugal would be enough, as long as they don't blow out Ghana and/or we don't get blown out by Germany.

We have a five goal advantage over Portugal in the goal differential at the moment, and that's huge if a tiebreaker is needed.

[dickiedawg]

I just looked at the groups and, based on FIFA rankings, I'm not sure we could have gotten a better draw. I realize FIFA rankings are not the best indicator, but that group doesn't have a team in the top 10. Belgium is 11 and the others are 19, 22, 57.
ELO has Belgium at 15 and Russia at 16.

ETA: This should be obvious but I meant our knockout round pairing, not our group draw. That was pretty awful, though there are other groups that are very tough.

[TheRef]

I just looked at the groups and, based on FIFA rankings, I'm not sure we could have gotten a better draw. I realize FIFA rankings are not the best indicator, but that group doesn't have a team in the top 10. Belgium is 11 and the others are 19, 22, 57.
ELO has Belgium at 15 and Russia at 16.

ETA: This should be obvious but I meant our knockout round pairing, not our group draw. That was pretty awful, though there are other groups that are very tough.

Makes sense. Group of Death paired with possibly the easiest group. The draw couldn't have been better.

[RiverCityDawg]

It would be great if Russia manages to win that group. To me, Belgium is a wild card who could beat anyone if they play as a cohesive unit. They have a lot of talent. Of course, talent alone doesn't always get it done (hence the reason they are only 11).

[dickiedawg]

On SportsCenter this morning an anchor called Belgium a team 'a lot of folks think of as a dark horse'. That's obviously vague and doesn't mean much.

[BulldogBear]

that is pretty favorable. I posted in the game thread, but I think a draw against Portugal is really all we need assuming Germany beats Ghana.

Correct.
1) If Germany beats Ghana, we finish no worse than second with a tie against Portugal if Ghana then beats Portugal.
2) If Germany beats Ghana, we LIKELY finish no worse than second with a tie against Portugal if Portugal beats Ghana. But in this case the goal difference if we lose to the Germans and their win over Ghana cannot exceed a swing of 5 total

3) If Ghana manages to beat Germany and Portugal that opens up new scenarios.

[Charlie_Sheen420]

If the U.S. is able to advance, I would very much prefer Russia over Belgium. Russia looked more beatable to me, but I will admit that was watching them in the Euro Cup back in 2012. I think the U.S. may have had a friendly with Russia that year as well. Everyone is high on Belgium at the moment, but they may fold under the pressure, so they may actually end up being the more beatable team. South Korea could end up surprising as well, they do have a history of being able to advance.

[DawgHouseUnited]

My poorly-educated guess was that we'd squeak through the group stage and face Belgium in the round of 16.

[gtowndawg]

So this one will concern our possibilities if we make it out of the Group Stage and into the knockout stage.

Group G is matched up with Group H for the knockout round. Now let's assume that Germany gets #1 in G and we get #2. Our likely opponent is either Belgium or Russia. We will have a better idea of that after today. But irregardless, we might have gotten the easiest draw for the first Knockout game. We could easily makes the Quarterfinals at this stage. Just nice playing the what if game.

Thoughts? Predictions? Analysis?

and beat them in the knockout stage, Putin would execute those poor SOB's.

[DudyDawg]

My analysis, purely based on the second round. Obviously, we would likely be the two seed. Now, we need to hope that Belgium wins that group, because, regardless of rankings, they are one of the top 7 teams in the world. They are young, but uber talented.

The being said, I see us facing Russia in the second round if we go through. They will likely play a similar style as us, in that they will sit back and put all of their eggs in solid, hearty defending and use the counter to score goals. They don't have a premier creator, so they will struggle to score against the better defenses. To beat them, basically we need to simply play solid, no risk defense that makes the challenges we need to and be able to win the midfield battle. our midfield is quite a bit better than theirs, so that should happen, and frankly, if we get to Russia, we SHOULD win that game and advance again

ETA: we need to hope that Belgium doesn't win that group.

If they do: we will be in for a fight. They are one of the most dynamic teams in the WC as far as size and speed up front. Hazard is simply one of the best wingers on earth, and our right mid would have to help a ton on him with Fabian Johnson to shut him down. Lukaku is a mammoth up front with great pace, but he is raw and could be flustered if shut down early. If we press offensively too much and get stretched, they are deadly on the counter. As for our offense, our best bet would be to get the ball wide on their weaker outside backs and whip crosses in to Dempsey, Johansson, Jozy (if he's back), and our midfield trailers coming in late.

My thoughts on those two teams

[DudyDawg]

Good start form an American view. Algeria gets a penalty and converts and takes a 1-0 lead over Belgium

[smootness]

My analysis, purely based on the second round. Obviously, we would likely be the two seed. Now, we need to hope that Belgium wins that group, because, regardless of rankings, they are one of the top 7 teams in the world. They are young, but uber talented.

The being said, I see us facing Russia in the second round if we go through. They will likely play a similar style as us, in that they will sit back and put all of their eggs in solid, hearty defending and use the counter to score goals. They don't have a premier creator, so they will struggle to score against the better defenses. To beat them, basically we need to simply play solid, no risk defense that makes the challenges we need to and be able to win the midfield battle. our midfield is quite a bit better than theirs, so that should happen, and frankly, if we get to Russia, we SHOULD win that game and advance again

ETA: we need to hope that Belgium doesn't win that group.

If they do: we will be in for a fight. They are one of the most dynamic teams in the WC as far as size and speed up front. Hazard is simply one of the best wingers on earth, and our right mid would have to help a ton on him with Fabian Johnson to shut him down. Lukaku is a mammoth up front with great pace, but he is raw and could be flustered if shut down early. If we press offensively too much and get stretched, they are deadly on the counter. As for our offense, our best bet would be to get the ball wide on their weaker outside backs and whip crosses in to Dempsey, Johansson, Jozy (if he's back), and our midfield trailers coming in late.

My thoughts on those two teams

I'll be honest, this post confused the heck out of me. Did you mean to initially say that we need to hope Belgium doesn't win the group? And are you saying you expect them not to with us facing Russia?

I don't think that's the easiest group, btw. I think the easiest overall group is Colombia's. I'd rather face Colombia than Belgium, and I'd rather face Greece or Ivory Coast than Russia.

[DudyDawg]

I'll be honest, this post confused the heck out of me. Did you mean to initially say that we need to hope Belgium doesn't win the group? And are you saying you expect them not to with us facing Russia?

I don't think that's the easiest group, btw. I think the easiest overall group is Colombia's. I'd rather face Colombia than Belgium, and I'd rather face Greece or Ivory Coast than Russia.

yes, I meant to say that i want Russia to win the group but expect Belgium to. Then when I confused it i tried to fix it

And the big paragraphs were just me scouting those two teams

[DudyDawg]

So, to answer your question, i expect Belgium to win the group and for us to face them, but I want Russia to win it.

[smootness]

We need to hope for a point against Portugal and for Germany to just beat Ghana, regardless of score. If that happens, Ghana isn't making it through no matter what, so their GD won't matter. And that would mean Germany could potentially be less aggressive against us, though if we entered that game with 4 points, they would want to make sure we didn't beat them and win the group.

Best-case scenario is obviously that we beat Portugal and essentially are through. But as long as we tie, it will be very tough not to make it out. That would keep Portugal at -4 and keep us at +1. Then we would just have to make sure Germany didn't destroy us and we should be fine. I don't see Portugal beating Ghana by more than 2 goals even in an absolute best-case scenario for them. They're good but they're not great, and Ghana's attack will give them problems.

[smootness]

So, to answer your question, i expect Belgium to win the group and for us to face them, but I want Russia to win it.

Gotcha. Definitely agree with you.

[DudyDawg]

We need to hope for a point against Portugal and for Germany to just beat Ghana, regardless of score. If that happens, Ghana isn't making it through no matter what, so their GD won't matter. And that would mean Germany could potentially be less aggressive against us, though if we entered that game with 4 points, they would want to make sure we didn't beat them and win the group.

Best-case scenario is obviously that we beat Portugal and essentially are through. But as long as we tie, it will be very tough not to make it out. That would keep Portugal at -4 and keep us at +1. Then we would just have to make sure Germany didn't destroy us and we should be fine. I don't see Portugal beating Ghana by more than 2 goals even in an absolute best-case scenario for them. They're good but they're not great, and Ghana's attack will give them problems.

Pretty much spot on. It's all on us to get a point from Portugal at the very least. If that doesn't happen, we have no one to blame but ourselves

[rabbitthedawg]

I can't believe all this soccer bs. What in hell is going on here? Friggin commie sport!!

[TheRef]

I can't believe all this soccer bs. What in hell is going on here? Friggin commie sport!!

Come on dude...really?

[jumbo]

I can't believe all this soccer bs. What in hell is going on here? Friggin commie sport!!



http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/253080/ari-gold-gtfo-o.gif

[hacker]

here we go again

[DudyDawg]

Yeahhhhhhh you can just go ahead and leave