Alright, let's talk next year...

[smootness]

I know people have discussed it in other threads, but I wanted one thread where we could talk about what we'll have, make predictions, etc. If we're where we think we are as a program right now, those kinds of programs generally don't have two 'down' years in a row, so you would hope we can come out and play better and more consistently next year, even though this ended up being a pretty good year.

There is a lot that is up in the air going into next year, but I like the possibilities we have. I think the only positions that are completely settled are catcher with Collins, Cody Brown in the OF, and Heck at either SS or 2B. Obviously if Rea comes back, he mans 1B again. After that, there will be a lot of guys battling.

I like Vickerson's chances to nail down another OF spot, I think Britton likely keeps 3B, and Humphreys will be starting somewhere, probably 1B if Rea leaves or DH/OF/3B if he returns. Swinarski will play a good bit, but I'm not sure he wins a starting job; he'll still be essentially a true freshman. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say he eventually wins the RF job. My guess on the defensive alignment:

C - Collins
1B - Rea
2B - Holland
SS - Heck
3B - Britton
RF - Swinarski
CF - Cody Brown
LF - Vickerson
DH - Humphreys

I think the guys who are the best bets to challenge these spots are Robson in the OF, Burdick somewhere in the IF if he passes on the draft, and Garner, Rooker or Ingram at 1B or DH if Rea leaves. Obviously if Vallot shows up, the whole thing is blown up. He would likely start as DH consistently, and we would have to find somewhere to play Humphreys, possibly in the OF.

In terms of the rotation, I agree with those who would like to see one or two guys step up and become a true starter who can go 6-8 innings regularly, especially since our bullpen will likely not be quite as good. I honestly don't think any SP spots will be settled going into next year. I expect Mitchell to move back to the bullpen, and I think Shelly (if healthy), Gentry, Irby, Mintz, Billingsley, and Cox (if healthy) are all strictly bullpen arms. I also figure Dominguez, McCord, and Mahoney will be in the pen as well.

So that leaves Fitts, Laster, Woodruff (if he comes back), Hudson, Tatum, Sexton, Paul Young (if healthy), Preston Brown (if healthy), and possibly Zac Houston as the candidates for the rotation. That's a lot of talented arms, and I like the chances of a couple of really good SP emerging from that group.

I'll go ahead and predict that our rotation ends up being the following:
Friday - Woodruff
Saturday - Laster
Sunday - Hudson

That would move Fitts to the bullpen and actually give us a really strong pen again now that I look at it. I just don't think Young or Brown will be fully healthy going into next year.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I think the team is certainly capable of contending for the SEC crown and a national seed. It's also capable of disappointing because we have so many unknowns and so many talented players that need to step up. Let me know if I forgot anything or if you have different predictions.

[HancockCountyDog]

I know people have discussed it in other threads, but I wanted one thread where we could talk about what we'll have, make predictions, etc. If we're where we think we are as a program right now, those kinds of programs generally don't have two 'down' years in a row, so you would hope we can come out and play better and more consistently next year, even though this ended up being a pretty good year.

There is a lot that is up in the air going into next year, but I like the possibilities we have. I think the only positions that are completely settled are catcher with Collins, Cody Brown in the OF, and Heck at either SS or 2B. Obviously if Rea comes back, he mans 1B again. After that, there will be a lot of guys battling.

I like Vickerson's chances to nail down another OF spot, I think Britton likely keeps 3B, and Humphreys will be starting somewhere, probably 1B if Rea leaves or DH/OF/3B if he returns. Swinarski will play a good bit, but I'm not sure he wins a starting job; he'll still be essentially a true freshman. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say he eventually wins the RF job. My guess on the defensive alignment:

C - Collins
1B - Rea
2B - Holland
SS - Heck
3B - Britton
RF - Swinarski
CF - Cody Brown
LF - Vickerson
DH - Humphreys

I think the guys who are the best bets to challenge these spots are Robson in the OF, Burdick somewhere in the IF if he passes on the draft, and Garner, Rooker or Ingram at 1B or DH if Rea leaves. Obviously if Vallot shows up, the whole thing is blown up. He would likely start as DH consistently, and we would have to find somewhere to play Humphreys, possibly in the OF.

In terms of the rotation, I agree with those who would like to see one or two guys step up and become a true starter who can go 6-8 innings regularly, especially since our bullpen will likely not be quite as good. I honestly don't think any SP spots will be settled going into next year. I expect Mitchell to move back to the bullpen, and I think Shelly (if healthy), Gentry, Irby, Mintz, Billingsley, and Cox (if healthy) are all strictly bullpen arms. I also figure Dominguez, McCord, and Mahoney will be in the pen as well.

So that leaves Fitts, Laster, Woodruff (if he comes back), Hudson, Tatum, Sexton, Paul Young (if healthy), Preston Brown (if healthy), and possibly Zac Houston as the candidates for the rotation. That's a lot of talented arms, and I like the chances of a couple of really good SP emerging from that group.

I'll go ahead and predict that our rotation ends up being the following:
Friday - Woodruff
Saturday - Laster
Sunday - Hudson

That would move Fitts to the bullpen and actually give us a really strong pen again now that I look at it. I just don't think Young or Brown will be fully healthy going into next year.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I think the team is certainly capable of contending for the SEC crown and a national seed. It's also capable of disappointing because we have so many unknowns and so many talented players that need to step up. Let me know if I forgot anything or if you have different predictions.

Thanks for posting this, Im not sure I can handle another woe is me post or ULL is gonna whip the bears ass post.

Here is my concern about next year - losing Holder and Lindgren. Those guys threw 107 innings this year in relief and sported a .81 and 2.22 ERA respectively. That is like us losing Frazier and Renfroe from the offense last year. How many games did Holder come into this year when we were either up a run or tied and the other team had runners on and he got us out of that spot. He was dominant. He has been that way for the last 3 years. We have kind of taken it for granted. He will be extremely difficult to replace because the only other pitcher on the staff that has his type of stuff is Lindgren and he will be gone too.

Now, I like Preston Brown but how guys come back from injury will really determine where we are. I think you are completely right about moving Mitchell to the pen, he was worn down by the end of the season and against teams that can hit, he simply isn't good for more than a few innings.

I will be interested to see what Woodruff does. He will have zero leverage next year if he comes back, meaning he won't get shit as far as a signing bonus, unless he elevates his game to a top 75 pick. Personally I hope he goes - I think it will be best for everyone.

Offensively there should only be two guys that have a spot in the lineup - Heck and Collins. Cody Brown had that one decent stretch, but was horrible the rest of the year. I think that could be due to not getting consistent reps. Problem that I see is that Pirtle and Bradford were two of our .300 hitters. We only had 4 guys that hit over .299. They were two of them, with Pirtle hitting .363 and Bradford hitting .310. Also, Pirtle led the team in OBS with .437, and he played some of the best defense I have ever seen at 2B at MSU.

We will need to have massive improvements in the lineup next year. Collins and Heck should be more than solid. Problem is that we will need a few more bats to improve dramatically.

I don't see next year's team as a top 10 team, or even a regional host team to be honest. Luckily, I thought this year's team should have been in contention for a national seed and I was wrong, so maybe I'll be wrong again. We probably won't know much about this team until the draft comes and goes and we see who makes it to campus and who comes back. Will make a huge difference.

[smootness]

That's some good stuff. Obviously we lose some of our best players, but that's going to happen often in college baseball. The best programs reload and develop, and that's what we have to do. I agree that losing Lindgren and Holder (I'm not sold that he's gone) is going to hurt, but Lindgren was a struggling starter last year. We have some guys with really good stuff, and I trust Thompson to develop a few of them into really dangerous pitchers.

In regard to the offense, I'm somewhat excited and somewhat nervous to see what we'll have. Collins could be a guy who takes a big step forward and becomes a big-time college hitter next year. And I think Heck could definitely replicate those numbers from Pirtle. He walks a lot, and his OBP should be high.

We'll just need some talented players to step up and hit, period. If Rea comes back, we need him to take a step forward from his 2013 year and give us double-digit HR. We need Humphreys to be a legitimate SEC hitter next year, and he's certainly capable of doing it. We need Holland to step in and at least be pretty good. Britton started coming on as a hitter late.

It's crazy what a year can do in college baseball. Look at Ole Miss' lineup this year compared to last; several of them suddenly became entirely different players. We need that to happen with a few guys, and we have the talent to do it.

[MsStateBaseball]

First off, getting the injured back to healthy. Paul Young being the biggest. I still believe in Hann and Robson being solid players. Second, we will learn who will be back after the exit interviews. I don't have any inside info, but usually there are one or two that will leave. I do think, just by looking at my roster, that we need a JC catcher and a JC OF. I didn't know about Heck until August, so you never know who will come in. One major positive is we will have at least 8 left handed pitchers. First time in Cohen era we have that many. Those guys make a difference.

[Goat Holder]

Fitts should start out as our Friday night starter next year. Hopefully we learned our lesson about projecting with Woodruff. Fitts/Laster/P. Brown should be the weekend starters until somebody takes it from them. Certainly we have guys that can do that. And I'm not counting on Woodruff and Holder being back. There are whispers that both could, especially if they aren't taken in the Top 10.

Losing Lindgren isn't going to be a big deal. Real Deal goes back to the pen, and Tatum appears ready to be another great middle reliever (or a starter, I'm not trying to limit him).

Who knows about the field, it never turns out like you think. I just hope Swinarski takes RF sooner rather than later.

[HancockCountyDog]

That's some good stuff. Obviously we lose some of our best players, but that's going to happen often in college baseball. The best programs reload and develop, and that's what we have to do. I agree that losing Lindgren and Holder (I'm not sold that he's gone) is going to hurt, but Lindgren was a struggling starter last year. We have some guys with really good stuff, and I trust Thompson to develop a few of them into really dangerous pitchers.

In regard to the offense, I'm somewhat excited and somewhat nervous to see what we'll have. Collins could be a guy who takes a big step forward and becomes a big-time college hitter next year. And I think Heck could definitely replicate those numbers from Pirtle. He walks a lot, and his OBP should be high.

We'll just need some talented players to step up and hit, period. If Rea comes back, we need him to take a step forward from his 2013 year and give us double-digit HR. We need Humphreys to be a legitimate SEC hitter next year, and he's certainly capable of doing it. We need Holland to step in and at least be pretty good. Britton started coming on as a hitter late.

It's crazy what a year can do in college baseball. Look at Ole Miss' lineup this year compared to last; several of them suddenly became entirely different players. We need that to happen with a few guys, and we have the talent to do it.

Personally Im going to miss Henderson. He had a .400 OBP but for some reason didn't get consistent playing time. Same goes for Armstrong, but I think both are replaceable.

Im not concerned about Reid Humphrey's struggles, he will progress - there is simply too much talent there not to. The issue is getting the opportunity to improve. You don't improve in the cage, you improve by getting reps against top flight SEC pitching. He only had 27 at bats in SEC games this year. That just ain't gonna cut it. He needs more.

If Holder comes back, we are a top 20 team for sure. He makes that big of a difference for our team.

[sandwolf]

Is it normal for a team to have so many pitchers get injured?

[ScottH]

[QUOTE=smootness;190861]
I think the guys who are the best bets to challenge these spots are Robson in the OF, Burdick somewhere in the IF if he passes on the draft, and Garner, Rooker or Ingram at 1B or DH if Rea leaves.


Good stuff.

On a couple of occasions I've had veterans tell me Ingram is going to be good.

[MsStateBaseball]

There have been a rash of Tommy John surgeries everywhere, HS, college and MLB. From what I read is a longevity of pitching without rest. Too much travel ball for one. Paul Young really didn't pitch, then all of a sudden starting pitching alot with complete games, that took a toll.

[DudyDawg]

Fitts should start out as our Friday night starter next year. Hopefully we learned our lesson about projecting with Woodruff. Fitts/Laster/P. Brown should be the weekend starters until somebody takes it from them. Certainly we have guys that can do that. And I'm not counting on Woodruff and Holder being back. There are whispers that both could, especially if they aren't taken in the Top 10.

Losing Lindgren isn't going to be a big deal. Real Deal goes back to the pen, and Tatum appears ready to be another great middle reliever (or a starter, I'm not trying to limit him).

Who knows about the field, it never turns out like you think. I just hope Swinarski takes RF sooner rather than later.

Yaeh, I'm very hopeful in Swinarski as well. I think he's a tremendous talent, and like I said before, will eventually win that role after some growing pains. I just hope the coaches and fans are patient with him.

As of now, I have about a 1% hope lingo will come back, and about 40% in Holder. Those are big losses, but we had so many injuries this year that I think we will be fine in the pen.

Its clear we need another big time starter that can eat innings in SEC play. I hope Hudson can be that guy, mostly because of his stuff. I think he has the clear talent to do that for us.

As far as Woodruff and Robson, I'll believe it when I see it. Woodruff probably goes, but I don't think thats a big loss for us. Robson, hell I just don't see him playing for us until he actually does it. So I'm not spending any of my hope on him doing anything for us.

As far as our lineup goes, I think Collins, Heck, Rea, and Britton are secure barring injury or implosion. Rea for power that he CAN (don't know if he will) provide. Britton: glove. Nuff said. Heck could move to second, but I really don't think it matters where he plays, he will be a good defender and hit for average. I would like to see him hit in the two hole next season kind of like detz a year ago, handling the bat well with lots of walks/singles.

As far as the rest of the lineup, I see it down the stretch playing out like this

C-Collins
1B- Rea
2B- Heck/Hann
SS- Heck/ Holland
3B- Britton
LF- Vick
CF- Brown
RF- Swinarski
DH- Hump/Garner
Like I said, this is down the stretch, not of the bat. Like usual, I think a lot of guys will get a chance to win a spot, but this is who I see winning them.

The middle infield has one spot for a view guys, so I think it will platoon a lot before SEC play to see who gets it.

I think its clear by this year that Cohen won't give a ton of reps to young power guys at DH, i.e. incoming guys, so I think Hump/Garner get those reps.

[smootness]

When I put Woodruff as the Friday starter, I'm just predicting. Obviously he could leave, and there's definitely a chance he just never puts it together.

But I think about Stratton and Girodo as seniors who everyone had written off, and Woodruff has the stuff to get it done. I'm hoping this year was him not being fully rehabbed and ready to go off sitting out a full year and that he realizes the opportunity he has, comes back, and establishes more command. Because if he can command his pitches better, he'll be one of the best pitchers in college baseball. His stuff is electric.

[HancockCountyDog]

When I put Woodruff as the Friday starter, I'm just predicting. Obviously he could leave, and there's definitely a chance he just never puts it together.

But I think about Stratton and Girodo as seniors who everyone had written off, and Woodruff has the stuff to get it done. I'm hoping this year was him not being fully rehabbed and ready to go off sitting out a full year and that he realizes the opportunity he has, comes back, and establishes more command. Because if he can command his pitches better, he'll be one of the best pitchers in college baseball. His stuff is electric.

Baseball America has Woody as the 200th best player in the draft. It has Holder around 286. I pulled up the MS players and its an odd year. We don't have a single player from MS committed in the BA top 500. USM has 2, the bears have 2 (Forbes will never make it), and LSU has 1. Just an interesting year.

They have Vallot around 45 - which would be a problem for us most likely. We need him to slip to the 3rd round. The money simply isn't big in those rounds.

[tcdog70]

Vickerson is JC's boy. But he doesn't use His biggest talent ---SPEED. Just how many Cans of Corn can you hit? he should have 1 bunt Hit every game. He should go back and watch film of Scotty Mitchell and Mike Kelly (if there is any). A Baltimore Chop should be part of his arsenal. he could be a great leadoff Man.

[DudyDawg]

Baseball America has Woody as the 200th best player in the draft. It has Holder around 286. I pulled up the MS players and its an odd year. We don't have a single player from MS committed in the BA top 500. USM has 2, the bears have 2 (Forbes will never make it), and LSU has 1. Just an interesting year.

They have Vallot around 45 - which would be a problem for us most likely. We need him to slip to the 3rd round. The money simply isn't big in those rounds.

To that point, the reason I didn't include Vallot is a) I don't know a great deal about him besides his draft stock and b) his draft stock makes me doubt he ever plays for us

[DudyDawg]

Vickerson is JC's boy. But he doesn't use His biggest talent ---SPEED. Just how many Cans of Corn can you hit? he should have 1 bunt Hit every game. He should go back and watch film of Scotty Mitchell and Mike Kelly (if there is any). A Baltimore Chop should be part of his arsenal. he could be a great leadoff Man.

You know, I get the feeling, and maybe it's just wishful thinking, that Vick is going to be a good player next season. Obviously his stats improved in the regional, bust most of my optimism is because he started to compete more. He had one slide where he was out, but the whole slide he was yelling safe and argued a bit. We need some fire. He also stopped lolly gagging balls in left and I think started to get it a little more mentally. One year older, I think he puts it together, although i was rough on him this year, he shut me up late

[dickiedawg]

I don't know that a JC catcher is a "need." We have Collins who will lock down the every day job, but then Randolph and Walker as well. My gut tells me Garner is gone.

[Goat Holder]

We didn't really recruit them.

[HancockCountyDog]

We didn't really recruit them.

That is just odd - Cohen has done really well recruiting MS kids - Renfroe, Holder, Gentry, Humphries, Lingo, and Woody. Must be a down year.

[smootness]

That is just odd - Cohen has done really well recruiting MS kids - Renfroe, Holder, Gentry, Humphries, Lingo, and Woody. Must be a down year.

It was. There are a couple of likely draft picks, the rest are borderline. We are cleaning house in a much better class for 2015.

[The Croom Diaries]

I just don't see any way Woody comes back. He'll be a top 10 round draft pick. You lose all your leverage when you come back to school. The college experiment didn't work, he needs a change of scenery.

[Todd4State]

Well, I'll put mine here.

I think we're going to have a lot of competition for the weekend spots between Fitts, Ross, Laster, Preston, Hudson, Sexton, Woodruff, McCord, and Tatum. I think it will most likely end up:

Fri- Fitts. He needs to be able to go deeper into games.
Sat.- Ross. He needs to get a little bit stronger because he gave out at the end of the year.
Sun.- Woodruff. It's time. He needs to step up. His numbers weren't good, but it seemed like the defense let him down at times. He showed me enough to be optmistic. He's hitting 94 on the gun. He could either be Chris Stratton or Devin Jones.

Midweek- Luke Laster. He made a lot of progress. If Woodruff does what he has done the past three years, we know who to turn to.

Bullpen- I think Holder comes back and ends up setting some more save records. He can be a 2-3 inning guy. I think Pau Young will kind of have a rehab year, and the bullpen is a good place for him. Gentry finished the season pretty strong IMO. He's very close to being another Caleb Reed type guy. If the freshmen aren't starting because of the same old MSU type things that seem to happen to us every year- I think they will see an increased role with the loss of Lindgren. Hudson, Sexton, Tatum, and Zac Houston will all go off this summer and get ready for next year. We also have some JUCO guys coming in like Daniel Brown, Cole Barlow- another submarine guy and may redshirt simply because he is basically like Gentry and they are in the same class, and Trent Waddell will compete for spots in the bullpen as well and could help out.

Catcher- Gavin Collins needs to improve his defense, and he will. We need to find a good number two catcher. Ideally that's Vallot, but... So, we have Cody Walker, Zach Randolph, and if it were me, I'd move Ben Hudspeth from pitcher to catcher.

1B- Rea probably will be back. Hopefully this past season motivates him and he can hit 10 home runs.
2B- Heck is a really good player. He can handle either spot and he and Holland will compete and we will put whoever fits best where they need to be. I'm hoping we can get .320 and steal 10 bases for us.
3B- Britton made a lot of improvement even though he hit .230. He started out below the Mendoza Line. The glove is there. I want to see him hit 5 home runs, hit .300 and steal 5-10 bases.
SS- Holland can play either middle infield spot. For now, I'll keep my expectations modest just because I haven't seen him play a lot- .300 with 1-2 home runs and 10 stolen bases.

LF- Vickerson- I hope he improves similarly to his brother. He won't hit with Nick's power, but I don't think expecting .300 and 10 stolen bases is out of line.
CF- Cody Brown- Solid player who is a gamer. It's hard to not like how he plays. I hope he gets up to .300 and steals 10.
RF- Reid Humphreys- We have to find a spot for him to play. He's more atheltic than Vickerson, so don't be surprised if he ends up in LF. He can hit 5 home runs hit .300 and steal 10.

Robson is a wild card as far as the OF. He's more talented than our fans give him credit for. The Padres don't draft you if you suck. It's a question of whether he is healthy or not. We'll see where he is in the fall and go from there.

DH- Garner can hit midweek pitching right now. SEC pitching- not so much. I think he's Jon Knott 2.0. I'm thinking that if he starts- and more than likely he won't IF Vallot comes or IF Robson is healthy, because if that happens, I think that Humprheys will DH- Garner will probably hit between .230-.250, but I think he will hit about 5 home runs.

[Todd4State]

I just don't see any way Woody comes back. He'll be a top 10 round draft pick. You lose all your leverage when you come back to school. The college experiment didn't work, he needs a change of scenery.

If he does well next year, I think it's very conceivable that he could get drafted higher and make more money even without leverage.

[Homedawg]

I don't see holder or woodruff being back. Neither do our coaches.

[Todd4State]

That is just odd - Cohen has done really well recruiting MS kids - Renfroe, Holder, Gentry, Humphries, Lingo, and Woody. Must be a down year.

We offered Clay Casey, but he grew up an Ole Miss fan. Forbes is likely going pro, and there are rumors that Casey will as well.

We offered Kirk McCarty as well- but he grew up a USM fan. Steele is good and I think he emerged late sort of.

Bobby Bradley has been committed to LSU for awhile now.

[HancockCountyDog]

We offered Clay Casey, but he grew up an Ole Miss fan. Forbes is likely going pro, and there are rumors that Casey will as well.

We offered Kirk McCarty as well- but he grew up a USM fan. Steele is good and I think he emerged late sort of.

Bobby Bradley has been committed to LSU for awhile now.

Forbes is 100% going pro. He will get drafted somewhere between the comp rounds and 3rd round and he won't turn the money down.

USM has done a great job keeping a lot of the South MS kids in-state. The Robbins kid a few years ago, and now Steele. Im not sure why they had a down year, but they have been doing a solid job.

[HancockCountyDog]

If he does well next year, I think it's very conceivable that he could get drafted higher and make more money even without leverage.

I just don't think that is how it works.

Im looking at a lot of seniors drafted in the 8th round last year signing for peanuts. Graveman signed for 5K. Another SR from Central Ark signed for 10K. A senior for UC Riverside signed for 10K. While Juniors are signing for 150K the very next pick. Hell Mason Katz was drafted in the 4th round and only got 95K while a guy two spots earlier that was a junior signed for 400K.

With new bonus structure - MLB teams are going to squeeze seniors, because they can which allows them to sign HS kids for big money.

In fact, in going through the draft, the only senior I see drafted in the first 3 rounds - is Mark Appel. The next senior was Mason Katz - who signed for 95K in the 4th round while everyone else around him is signing for 400K.

So yeah, if Woodruff comes back, he won't be getting more money unless he is a top 10 pick.

[msstate7]

I just don't think that is how it works.

Im looking at a lot of seniors drafted in the 8th round last year signing for peanuts. Graveman signed for 5K. Another SR from Central Ark signed for 10K. A senior for UC Riverside signed for 10K. While Juniors are signing for 150K the very next pick. Hell Mason Katz was drafted in the 4th round and only got 95K while a guy two spots earlier that was a junior signed for 400K.

With new bonus structure - MLB teams are going to squeeze seniors, because they can which allows them to sign HS kids for big money.

In fact, in going through the draft, the only senior I see drafted in the first 3 rounds - is Mark Appel. The next senior was Mason Katz - who signed for 95K in the 4th round while everyone else around him is signing for 400K.

So yeah, if Woodruff comes back, he won't be getting more money unless he is a top 10 pick.

How much were juniors in 15-30 round signing for? Woodruff won't be top 10, so what top 10 round guys get is irrelevant

[HancockCountyDog]

How much were juniors in 15-30 round signing for? Woodruff won't be top 10, so what top 10 round guys get is irrelevant

Baseball America has him as the 200 ranked prospect. Now, that isn't gospel, but a decent indicator of where he may get drafted. If so you are looking before the 10th round ends. 9th and 10th round juniors were getting around 100-150K. A 13th round junior got 100K, while Girodo got 5K in the 9th round.

Its simple, you either sign after your junior year for a decent amount, or you sign when you are a senior for enough money to buy a plane ticket to whatever minor league team you have been assigned to.

[The Croom Diaries]

Baseball America has him as the 200 ranked prospect. Now, that isn't gospel, but a decent indicator of where he may get drafted. If so you are looking before the 10th round ends. 9th and 10th round juniors were getting around 100-150K. A 13th round junior got 100K, while Girodo got 5K in the 9th round.

Its simple, you either sign after your junior year for a decent amount, or you sign when you are a senior for enough money to buy a plane ticket to whatever minor league team you have been assigned to.

Yeah that's basically what it amounts to. Unless you're drafted in the 15+ rounds and would only get $5K anyways you might as well go pro.

Worst case scenario for Woodruff, he gets drafted in the 12th round or something like Mitchell was, get $100K signing bonus, stick $20K of it in a savings account to finish school if baseball doesn't work out, then have about $30-40K (after taxes) to supplement your minor league salary and you focus 100% on baseball learning from pro coaches.

I'm tired of the Woodruff. I wish him the best, but three years is long enough to wait. Girodo cases are few and far between...and he had mechanical things that helped him out.

I'm not sure what Butch and Cohen have to offer Woody is going to work out for him. He's better off just moving on and trying his hand in a major league organization. Plus he's already had major arm surgery - another one could end all hopes of a professional career.

[smootness]

Baseball America has him as the 200 ranked prospect. Now, that isn't gospel, but a decent indicator of where he may get drafted. If so you are looking before the 10th round ends. 9th and 10th round juniors were getting around 100-150K. A 13th round junior got 100K, while Girodo got 5K in the 9th round.

Its simple, you either sign after your junior year for a decent amount, or you sign when you are a senior for enough money to buy a plane ticket to whatever minor league team you have been assigned to.

Well, obviously if he comes back he's banking on improving enough to be a 1st-2nd round pick, which he's capable of doing.

A 2nd round pick senior will get more than a 9th round junior.

I would hope he doesn't come back planning on only marginally improving his draft stock.

[HancockCountyDog]

Yeah that's basically what it amounts to. Unless you're drafted in the 15+ rounds and would only get $5K anyways you might as well go pro.

Worst case scenario for Woodruff, he gets drafted in the 12th round or something like Mitchell was, get $100K signing bonus, stick $20K of it in a savings account to finish school if baseball doesn't work out, then have about $30-40K (after taxes) to supplement your minor league salary and you focus 100% on baseball learning from pro coaches.

I'm tired of the Woodruff. I wish him the best, but three years is long enough to wait. Girodo cases are few and far between...and he had mechanical things that helped him out.

I'm not sure what Butch and Cohen have to offer Woody is going to work out for him. He's better off just moving on and trying his hand in a major league organization. Plus he's already had major arm surgery - another one could end all hopes of a professional career.

This is 100% right.

I bet the tall kid from the bears Buchanan gets drafted, though he has been terrible for the bears. Same with the Laxer kid. Same reason Mitchell won't get drafted.

For me and MSU, I hope like hell Holder comes back, but if he gets an offer of 100K, he really should take it.

[HancockCountyDog]

Well, obviously if he comes back he's banking on improving enough to be a 1st-2nd round pick, which he's capable of doing.

A 2nd round pick senior will get more than a 9th round junior.

I would hope he doesn't come back planning on only marginally improving his draft stock.

Problem is that most teams won't waste a 2nd round pick on a senior, as evidenced last year when Appel went first overall, and Mason Katz was the next senior drafted in the 4th round and signed for 10th round money.

MLB teams are given a pool of money to spend on draft picks. They know they can squeeze seniors, and they do. If Woody gets drafted in the 2nd round - maybe he gets 100-150K; Katz got 95K in the 4th round.

To jump into the first round, you are talking about a massive jump, that isn't realistic. Im just seeing 5th and 6th round seniors signing for 75K which is less than a lot of junior received past the 10th round. Shit, two seniors in the 6th round got 30K each, right after juniors were signing for 300K a few picks prior.

[MarketingBully01]

Baseball America has him as the 200 ranked prospect. Now, that isn't gospel, but a decent indicator of where he may get drafted. If so you are looking before the 10th round ends. 9th and 10th round juniors were getting around 100-150K. A 13th round junior got 100K, while Girodo got 5K in the 9th round.

Its simple, you either sign after your junior year for a decent amount, or you sign when you are a senior for enough money to buy a plane ticket to whatever minor league team you have been assigned to.

I guess it depends on the situation but I think you are looking at it very narrow mindedly and short sighted. If you are coming back from an injury and you haven't put your best foot forward to show your best stuff, I think you do come back. Woodruff was drafted in the fifth round out of high school. I think if he can put together a year like Chris Stratton or Chad Girodo did you come back and get drafted in the first round. We know he can do that. He has that type of stuff. If he goes now, he gives all the power to the MLB because they can draft him much lower because he hasn't shown anything in college. You want the quick buck? Sure you take it. But if you know you can do tremendously night and day better for a 1-3 rounds performance of a senior year, you come back. In the grand scheme of things 100k is shit compared to the millions he could get as a first round pick.

[smootness]

Problem is that most teams won't waste a 2nd round pick on a senior, as evidenced last year when Appel went first overall, and Mason Katz was the next senior drafted in the 4th round and signed for 10th round money.

MLB teams are given a pool of money to spend on draft picks. They know they can squeeze seniors, and they do. If Woody gets drafted in the 2nd round - maybe he gets 100-150K; Katz got 95K in the 4th round.

To jump into the first round, you are talking about a massive jump, that isn't realistic. Im just seeing 5th and 6th round seniors signing for 75K which is less than a lot of junior received past the 10th round. Shit, two seniors in the 6th round got 30K each, right after juniors were signing for 300K a few picks prior.

They'll absolutely take a senior high in the draft if they're good enough. Class has nothing to do with where they get drafted, it's just that most juniors that are talented enough to be taken that high don't come back for their senior years. They know they can squeeze seniors, but they're not going to pass on a senior and take him later because there are 29 other teams who might take them.

And I don't think jumping up into the 1st is that unrealistic for a guy with Woodruff's talent. He just needs to command his pitches and prove he can use his stuff to pitch effectively. It worked for Stratton.

[MarketingBully01]

Problem is that most teams won't waste a 2nd round pick on a senior, as evidenced last year when Appel went first overall, and Mason Katz was the next senior drafted in the 4th round and signed for 10th round money.

MLB teams are given a pool of money to spend on draft picks. They know they can squeeze seniors, and they do. If Woody gets drafted in the 2nd round - maybe he gets 100-150K; Katz got 95K in the 4th round.

To jump into the first round, you are talking about a massive jump, that isn't realistic. Im just seeing 5th and 6th round seniors signing for 75K which is less than a lot of junior received past the 10th round. Shit, two seniors in the 6th round got 30K each, right after juniors were signing for 300K a few picks prior.

Signing bonuses don't mean shit either. Can you develop better in one year in the SEC or one year in the minors. It's really all about how fast you can get to the big show. If Katz makes the big show in 2-3 years he will be making his millions then and it won't mean shit about what signing bonus he received.

[msstate7]

Baseball America has him as the 200 ranked prospect. Now, that isn't gospel, but a decent indicator of where he may get drafted. If so you are looking before the 10th round ends. 9th and 10th round juniors were getting around 100-150K. A 13th round junior got 100K, while Girodo got 5K in the 9th round.

Its simple, you either sign after your junior year for a decent amount, or you sign when you are a senior for enough money to buy a plane ticket to whatever minor league team you have been assigned to.

No idea he was projected that high. I wish the best to woodruff, but there's zero chance I'd pick him top 10 rounds

[HancockCountyDog]

I guess it depends on the situation but I think you are looking at it very narrow mindedly and short sighted. If you are coming back from an injury and you haven't put your best foot forward to show your best stuff, I think you do come back. Woodruff was drafted in the fifth round out of high school. I think if he can put together a year like Chris Stratton or Chad Girodo did you come back and get drafted in the first round. We know he can do that. He has that type of stuff. If he goes now, he gives all the power to the MLB because they can draft him much lower because he hasn't shown anything in college. You want the quick buck? Sure you take it. But if you know you can do tremendously night and day better for a 1-3 rounds performance of a senior year, you come back. In the grand scheme of things 100k is shit compared to the millions he could get as a first round pick.

Here is where we are having a disconnect:

Stratton - Junior year - Dominant season - results in million dollar payday.

Girodo - Senior year - Dominant season - results in 5K

If he comes back for his senior year he has zero negotiating leverage. NONE. Lets say he gets drafted in 3rd round and they offer him 75K. He says, hell no. What are his options? Go play for an independent league? Pump gas with Matt Harrington?

Mason Katz was an All American, First team ALL SEC and he got 95K, 50K less than several juniors drafted in the 8th-10th round. He had to take whatever he was offered.

When you say, Im looking at this narrow mindedly, I don't think you understand - Im just going off what MLB teams are doing with this new slotting system and the pool money. They are only alotted a certain amount for their entire draft class. If they can sign a college senior for 50K in the 4th round so they can sign a HS senior for twice his slot price in the 5th round - they will do it. Its a good business move based on the pool money. Its a shitty deal for college seniors - but it is what it is, it's not my opinion that college seniors are getting screwed - its a fact.

If you don't believe me, call Kendall Graveman or Chad Girodo. Just don't call collect.

[HancockCountyDog]

Signing bonuses don't mean shit either. Can you develop better in one year in the SEC or one year in the minors. It's really all about how fast you can get to the big show. If Katz makes the big show in 2-3 years he will be making his millions then and it won't mean shit about what signing bonus he received.

Actually - what matters is how a franchise views you as a commodity. MLB franchises don't put a lot of time or effort into players that they don't view as commodity. They don't value college seniors. In turn, those players sometimes don't get a fair shake when it comes to playing time.

There are only so many inning and so many at bats to go around in a minor league system. A 3rd round pick that got paid 500K is going to get every opportunity to show that he can produce. A 8th round pick that only cost 5K, will not get this opportunity. Anyone that has been around the minor leagues know that bonus babies get treated differently. Guys that should get opportunities - don't. It sucks, but that is how the minor league systems work.

For 90% of the players that get drafted (Im guessing, but I think that is right) this will be their only real shot at a payday in the major leagues. This is it. This may be their only opportunity to hold a 150K check. You can't **** that up.

[smootness]

For some reason, I was thinking Stratton was drafted after his senior year. Well, that throws part of my argument out. Still, though, the reason Stratton was drafted in the 1st and Girodo in the 8th was not because one was a senior and the other a junior. It was because Stratton was a SP they projected to be an ace; Girodo was a RP they projected to be a middle-inning guy, possibly set-up. Girodo would not have been drafted higher had he broken out as a junior instead of as a senior.

And if Woodruff comes back as a senior and proves he's a 1st-round talent, he'll be drafted in the 1st round. They will pay him less than they would a junior taken in the same spot because of the leverage you talk about, but it's not going to change their draft position.

A team is going to draft a guy where his talent warrants it. The leverage is simply about the money. Again, no team is going to pass on a senior because they know they don't have to pay him as much...in fact, the draft position itself could improve because they don't have to pay him as much as a younger player at that spot. But if they pass solely due to class, another team is going to draft them, so there's no incentive for the MLB team to pass them over just because they're a senior.

Katz was a 4th round pick because his talent is 4th-round worthy, not because he was a senior.