High Drama

[curmudgeon]

Locks for national seeds
Virginia
Florida
Florida State
Oregon State
Indiana
Miami

Playing for national seed/locks to host
Louisiana-Lafayette
South Carolina
Louisville
LSU

Locks to host
Cal Poly
Rice
Oklahoma State

Playing for last three host spots
Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
Houston
Texas Tech
TCU
Washington
Oregon
Liberty

I have never seen so many teams in the hunt this late. Usually its four or five schools for two spots. Legitimately eight teams are playing for three host spots right now. I highly doubt the SEC will get five host spots. Is the Vandy/Ole Miss game tomorrow for the last spot from the SEC? Is everyone mistaken in thinking LSU has played themselves into the "lock" category?

Here's how I break down the last three spots

Group 1: Vanderbilt or Ole Miss. They play tomorrow for the first time all season. Ole Miss has the better SEC finish, Vandy has the better RPI.
Wildcard #1: History is disregarded and both Vandy and Ole Miss get a host spot, giving the SEC five.
Group 2: TCU, Texas, Texas Tech. No more than one of these schools will get a host. Rice and Oklahoma State are locks from that part of the country. They are 12-13-14 in the RPI. TCU has the better record, Texas has the toughest schedule, Texas Tech has the highest RPI
Group 3: If the SEC doesn't get five hosts, I expect either Washington or Oregon to grab a host spot, giving the Pac 12 a second host.
Wildcard #2: Liberty. Its a long shot, but their name keeps popping up as a non-traditional host. The NCAA loves them, so they are worth keeping an eye on. They probably need Washington and Oregon to both lose their series to UCLA/Cal respectively this weekend.

[Coach34]

excellent work as usual 615

[AlSwearengen]

is olemiss not a lock to host? I thought they were playing for a national seed.

[ghostofjackie]

I see Ole Miss and Vandy as a lock to host and the remaining 6 he mentioned are fighting for the last host spot. Both of them got beat today but I doubt it matters. They have the resume to host.

I think we can play our way into that bubble list if we win the tournament. That will be the only way.
If we beat South Carolina, Florida twice and LSU or Ole Miss to win the thing, our RPI will have to be under 20. That will be 4 more top 20 RPI wins. We will also have won 12 of our last 14. I honestly don't see how that would not put us on top of the bubble.

[jalakin]

is olemiss not a lock to host? I thought they were playing for a national seed.

Considering that according to all the projections had Vandy, UM, and USC fighting for the last National Seed spot how could they not be locks to host?

[blacklistedbully]

Yeah, it is kinda hard to imagine OM not being a lock to host. They are West Champs, finished 19-11 and the #2 seed. No way the selection committee shafts them, and it would be a shaft.

[curmudgeon]

In a normal year, yes they would be a lock to host and today hurt their chances at a national seed. But I don't put them in the same category as the 13 locks I have above.

RPI: Ole Miss sits at #15
S Curve: Ole Miss sits at #11, ahead of Cal Poly and Oklahoma State, who are locks for other reasons.

Florida, South Carolina and LSU are all hosting. The SEC will get at least one more. Its between Ole Miss and Vandy. Right now, I think its Ole Miss, but if they were to lose to Vandy tomorrow, I'm not sure.

Personally, I would go with Ole Miss, Vandy and TCU as the last three hosts. I'm not on the committee though. I think the SEC only gets four in a year where they deserve five. Ole Miss or Vandy is the likely team to get screwed. I'd give the last host right now to Washington. Something tells me to watch out for Liberty though. Perfect Game had them hosting as of last week's projections, so they are hearing the same things I am.

Those of you that are holding out hope for MSU to make a run and host - stop. Its not happening. If I were going to add MSU, I'd have to add Nebraska and MSU would be the 10th team for three spots without enough room for the teams to drop. Its just not possible without Sochi-type corruption.

[messageboardsuperhero]

I think the SEC gets five hosts(Fla and USCe as nattys, and LSU, Vandy, and UM hosting). The ACC got five last year, so there is precedent for it.

And to me, Vandy should be ahead of UM in the pecking order. Sure, UM finished 2nd in the SEC and Vandy only finished 6th, but there was only a two game difference between their records- so that conference finish is pretty deceiving. It's just hard for me to see the committee denying the #6 RPI team in favor of the #15 RPI team in the same league because they finished a couple of games better in conference against an easier schedule. At the end of the day though, both those teams seem deserving of a host to me.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Wow, I just realized something. Us and UM have identical records against top 100 opponents (23-15)- so against good competition, we have performed pretty much identically. The only real difference between our year and theirs is our early season performance against sub-par teams.

It's really frustrating knowing how much better our RPI/resume would be had we just taken care of our shit against terrible teams...

[drunkernhelldawg]

Wow, I just realized something. Us and UM have identical records against top 100 opponents (23-15)- so against good competition, we have performed pretty much identically. The only real difference between our year and theirs is our early season performance against sub-par teams.

It's really frustrating knowing how much better our RPI/resume would be had we just taken care of our shit against terrible teams...

Showed your post to Ron Polk. He said , "You know, that's ba . . ." I couldn't catch that last word. He was gone in a puff of maroon-colored smoke. SOB. There then gone. Then there. Then gone again. Worse than my wife's affections . . . And I'm left to clean up and wonder what the hell he was saying, and what it meant. Which is really frustrating because I deep-down know that it doesn't make a damn. Yet still I wonder, pissed off that he's making me waste my damn energy.

[Todd4State]

Wow, I just realized something. Us and UM have identical records against top 100 opponents (23-15)- so against good competition, we have performed pretty much identically. The only real difference between our year and theirs is our early season performance against sub-par teams.

It's really frustrating knowing how much better our RPI/resume would be had we just taken care of our shit against terrible teams...

I've been saying this for awhile. Not to mention the fact that we are 2-2 against them on the year. And they played as probably the best possible time to play us if you are going to beat us.

[Todd4State]

I think the SEC gets five hosts(Fla and USCe as nattys, and LSU, Vandy, and UM hosting). The ACC got five last year, so there is precedent for it.

And to me, Vandy should be ahead of UM in the pecking order. Sure, UM finished 2nd in the SEC and Vandy only finished 6th, but there was only a two game difference between their records- so that conference finish is pretty deceiving. It's just hard for me to see the committee denying the #6 RPI team in favor of the #15 RPI team in the same league because they finished a couple of games better in conference against an easier schedule. At the end of the day though, both those teams seem deserving of a host to me.

As you know, they hate the SEC. I still think we only get four.

[Todd4State]

is olemiss not a lock to host? I thought they were playing for a national seed.

You can be playing for a National Seed and play your way out of hosting with a bad performance in a tournament.

It just all comes down to what the committee places emphasis on that year.

[Martianlander]

The selection committee won't give the SEC a break. As Todd said, I think only 4.

[sbcmortgageman]

OM is definitely a lock to host.