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blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 11:15 AM
Two outs, runners on 1st & 3rd. If the runner on 1st attempts a steal, who should the catcher throw to?:

A) The pitcher
B) The 2B
C) Fake throw to 2B and throw to 3B if runner at 3rd has big lead.

BulldogBear
05-19-2014, 11:17 AM
I like C. If the other team falls for it, great. If not, get the guy at the plate with K or hope for nice grounder.

tcdog70
05-19-2014, 11:20 AM
with 2 out throw his ass out at second and trot to the dugout

ClancyDawg
05-19-2014, 11:21 AM
Is the runner on first Wes Rea or Billy Hamilton

BulldogBear
05-19-2014, 11:23 AM
Is the runner on first Wes Rea or Billy Hamilton

That's a factor as well.

So are:

who's batting
who's pitching

shoeless joe
05-19-2014, 11:24 AM
A whole lot depends on the situation...runner, score, inning, batter, pitcher, etc.
and to give an accurate answer all those need to be known.

Bubb Rubb
05-19-2014, 11:24 AM
Two outs, runners on 1st & 3rd. If the runner on 1st attempts a steal, who should the catcher throw to?:

A) The pitcher
B) The 2B
C) Fake throw to 2B and throw to 3B if runner at 3rd has big lead.


Lots of variables dictate the right thing to do. How many outs? How fast are the runners on each base? What is the score in the game? How good/accurate is your catcher's arm? Same for the SS. Also, what age group are we talking about?

The short answer is that it's situational.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 11:27 AM
Gonna wait for a bit before I give my answer and reason.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 11:50 AM
The best catchers of all time in CS are under .500 career with the exception of Roy Campanella, who was off-the-charts good at 57%. The real odds of getting the out from a CS are less than 50%. Even against the best hitters, the odds of getting the batter out are around 70%, and on average are more like 75%.

Throwing to 2B is wrong because you have less than 50% chance to get the out, expose yourself to the runner coming home to score, even on a good throw, and risk a bad throw, or the runner at 2B making it impossible to get a throw to home in time to catch the runner at home.

An immediate throw to 3rd isn't better, as a bad throw, or a ball that hits the runner probably scores the run.

Certainly, there are circumstances that could tweak the percentages a little, such as speed of runners, arm & accuracy of catcher, strength of hitter, etc. But even in the best-case scenario, the odds favor not attempting the CS, and just getting the batter for the 3rd out. Remember, the other team needs a hit, error/passed ball/wild pitch in order to score otherwise.

Disagree?

HereComesTheSpiral
05-19-2014, 12:02 PM
We used to run a SS read on that play. The SS would cut the ball off and throw home if the runner tried to steal from 3rd. If the runner stayed, they would let it go through to 2nd.

tcdog70
05-19-2014, 12:22 PM
We used to run a SS read on that play. The SS would cut the ball off and throw home if the runner tried to steal from 3rd. If the runner stayed, they would let it go through to 2nd.

exactly--you don't just give up the base. Unless you think your catcher sux or you have a lot of confidence that your pitcher will get the batter out.. you throw it down and if the runner breaks from third cut it and throw Him out.

shoeless joe
05-19-2014, 12:35 PM
The best catchers of all time in CS are under .500 career with the exception of Roy Campanella, who was off-the-charts good at 57%. The real odds of getting the out from a CS are less than 50%. Even against the best hitters, the odds of getting the batter out are around 70%, and on average are more like 75%.

Throwing to 2B is wrong because you have less than 50% chance to get the out, expose yourself to the runner coming home to score, even on a good throw, and risk a bad throw, or the runner at 2B making it impossible to get a throw to home in time to catch the runner at home.

An immediate throw to 3rd isn't better, as a bad throw, or a ball that hits the runner probably scores the run.

Certainly, there are circumstances that could tweak the percentages a little, such as speed of runners, arm & accuracy of catcher, strength of hitter, etc. But even in the best-case scenario, the odds favor not attempting the CS, and just getting the batter for the 3rd out. Remember, the other team needs a hit, error/passed ball/wild pitch in order to score otherwise.

Disagree?

The problem with these percentages, as with the bunting argument, is that they're situational. A good catcher and a slow runner gives you a better than 50/50 chance to get the out. Where as a fast runner and weak catcher would be less. So if it's late in the game, I'm up 6+ runs and the other team wants to give me an out I take it. If I've got a studd on the mound early in a tight game I fake a throw. Both plays are correct for that situation.

This would be the reason good teams have multiple first and third plays to run depending on, this humongously key word in the game of baseball, the SITUATION.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 12:40 PM
exactly--you don't just give up the base. Unless you think your catcher sux or you have a lot of confidence that your pitcher will get the batter out.. you throw it down and if the runner breaks from third cut it and throw Him out.

Best catcher at CS in the history of baseball was 57%. Many of the all-time best were successful less than 40% of the time. The average is under 1 in 3 success-rate. Your odds of getting the out on the throw are much, much smaller than the odds you will get the batter out. In the example given, the runner from 3rd did not break, rather took a big lead.

When I coached, I had my catcher fake the throw to second, look to the runner at third, and if she did break, run toward the runner to get her heading back toward 3rd before attempting a throw to get her out in a rundown. The way you are suggesting needs everything to go right, every throw to be good, and even then you have a smaller chance of getting the out than you do just by letting the runner take 2nd and focus on the batter.

Jacksondevildog
05-19-2014, 12:42 PM
The situation also depends on what the score is and the speed of the runner at first base. Are you wanting to get the guy second base because you believe you can throw him out?

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 12:59 PM
Also, a catcher who can get the CS 25% of the time is considered to be adequate. That is the baseline. Those are not good percentages to gamble with when you have 2 outs and a batter most likely hitting .350 or under.

To me, it's tempting to try and get that last out, but with 2 outs already, I probably don't make the throw. Less than 2, then hell yes. But 2 outs, I'm gonna rely on my pitcher and defense to get the out. Less chance of the batter doing damage than the throw.

smootness
05-19-2014, 03:07 PM
Two outs, runners on 1st & 3rd. If the runner on 1st attempts a steal, who should the catcher throw to?:

A) The pitcher
B) The 2B
C) Fake throw to 2B and throw to 3B if runner at 3rd has big lead.

As others have said, it just depends. This is why they call baseball the thinking man's game, because you have to assess the situation and decide ahead of time how you're going to handle any number of scenarios based on what you're facing.

If my catcher is really good and I've got a guy who doesn't run well and never breaks for home on 3rd, I'm going to let my catcher loose.

If I don't fully trust my catcher, or if the guy at 3rd can run, especially if there are fewer than 2 outs, I'm telling my catcher not to ever throw to 2nd. Even then, what he does depends. I may tell him to fake the throw to 2nd and throw to 3rd, or I may have the catcher throw hard back to the pitcher depending on runner tendencies.

If the guy at 3rd is a gambler and has a history of going as soon as the catcher makes a move to 2nd, I may fake it. If he waits on the ball to leave the catcher's hand, I may have the catcher throw to the P. And I may bait him into it by having the catcher not look down to 3rd on any pitch where the runner at 2nd doesn't go.

So, to sum it up, it just depends. But if you don't ever throw to 2nd in that scenario, as you seem to be suggesting, teams are going to know this and will steal on you constantly, and it will burn you when you don't get the batter out. You have to do it at least occasionally to keep the threat alive.

In the same way, I would never ever tell a runner at 3rd to attempt to steal home under any circumstances...unless the catcher has a history of not looking runners back, he is lazily throwing the ball back to the pitcher, the pitcher also isn't looking to 3rd, and I think my guy at 3rd can make it.

engie
05-19-2014, 03:13 PM
Two outs, runners on 1st & 3rd. If the runner on 1st attempts a steal, who should the catcher throw to?:

A) The pitcher
B) The 2B
C) Fake throw to 2B and throw to 3B if runner at 3rd has big lead.

Can be any of the 3 -- plus other options -- depending on circumstance. Catcher gets that from the dugout and calls it in.

engie
05-19-2014, 03:32 PM
The best catchers of all time in CS are under .500 career with the exception of Roy Campanella, who was off-the-charts good at 57%. The real odds of getting the out from a CS are less than 50%. Even against the best hitters, the odds of getting the batter out are around 70%, and on average are more like 75%.

Throwing to 2B is wrong because you have less than 50% chance to get the out, expose yourself to the runner coming home to score, even on a good throw, and risk a bad throw, or the runner at 2B making it impossible to get a throw to home in time to catch the runner at home.

An immediate throw to 3rd isn't better, as a bad throw, or a ball that hits the runner probably scores the run.

Certainly, there are circumstances that could tweak the percentages a little, such as speed of runners, arm & accuracy of catcher, strength of hitter, etc. But even in the best-case scenario, the odds favor not attempting the CS, and just getting the batter for the 3rd out. Remember, the other team needs a hit, error/passed ball/wild pitch in order to score otherwise.

Disagree?

It isn't nearly as simple as your attempted breakdown. First and thirds is the most complex -- and highly practiced -- aspect in all of defense in baseball.

The most common with decent catchers and middle infielders is the throw to second. However, you are looking at it as simple "straight steal at second". It isn't. The 2B or SS(whichever isn't covering the base -- depending on batter tendency) practically always runs in front of the bag at second as a potential "cut" man. The 3B calls in "4,4,4" if the runner at third breaks on the throw, so it is cut in front of the bag, and that guy is hosed at the plate at a very high percentage by good defensive teams(probably over 85% honestly). You also pretty frequently will have delay steals -- or steal and stops -- in that situation. On the steal and stop, the runner from 3rd generally breaks on the throw from the 2b/SS to 1B. It's the 1B's job in this situation to close the gap with the runner -- and ensure you can get a single throw tag on him before the run can score. If he gets back past you into first -- nothing lost.

So, you've got a 40% chance of hosing the guy at second -- which is a 40% higher chance of getting you out of the inning and taking the bat out of the hitter's hands -- when the other 2 options don't have nearly that high of success rate in actually ending the inning -- and a zero percent chance of getting the guy out at second.

It's all reads. The catcher has alot of levity in first and thirds -- and is taught to always glance at 3rd while making the throw to second(you do this enough as a catcher in the higher levels of baseball that you almost don't have to look at second at all to make a good throw). We'd call "2" pretty often -- and the runner at 3rd would be cheating down the line heavily -- at which point it the whole "call" changes and becomes a pumpfake and a "3"...

Good defensive teams -- that are well-coached -- take away the ability to do much of anything on first and thirds period -- especially with 2 outs.

Dog
05-19-2014, 04:12 PM
When I coached, I had my catcher fake the throw to second, look to the runner at third, and if she did break, run toward the runner to get her heading back toward 3rd before attempting a throw to get her out in a rundown. The way you are suggesting needs everything to go right, every throw to be good, and even then you have a smaller chance of getting the out than you do just by letting the runner take 2nd and focus on the batter.

One problem here is you can't parallel the situation in both softball and baseball at all. You're getting into apples and oranges here. I would even consider it a farce to use MLB examples when approaching baseball theory at a college level.

MetEdDawg
05-19-2014, 04:33 PM
Obviously every situation in baseball is dictated by who is participating in said play. But I like option D which you don't have listed. 2nd baseman covers the bag on the throw to 2nd. SS cuts in between the throw and the bag and depending upon his read of the guy at 3rd he either lets it ride to the 2B on the bag or he cuts it and relays home. We ran that a couple different times this year and got some big outs.

ETA: HereComestheSpiral already said this, but I will keep it here. Love the SS read play but he has to be heady to do it and make it work and look right.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 04:40 PM
Lots of interesting takes on this one. Yes, I am coming at it mostly from a softball perspective. Pretty much every coach I've ever encountered will not attempt a throw to 2nd if there is a player on 3rd. Of course, that doesn't necessarily make it the right move in any given situation.

I seen it dawg
05-19-2014, 04:44 PM
It's really simple. Softball and baseball are pretty damn different. And as said earlier there isn't a concrete answer because it's purely situational. There are multiple right and wrong answers.

Goat Holder
05-19-2014, 04:48 PM
Obviously every situation in baseball is dictated by who is participating in said play. But I like option D which you don't have listed. 2nd baseman covers the bag on the throw to 2nd. SS cuts in between the throw and the bag and depending upon his read of the guy at 3rd he either lets it ride to the 2B on the bag or he cuts it and relays home. We ran that a couple different times this year and got some big outs.

This is typical 1st and 3rd situational baseball that should be practiced by just about every team in America. Was wondering who would say it first.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 04:54 PM
This exact question is on a new-player questionaire put together by one of the more well-known and respected club softball coaches in Cali.

Todd4State
05-19-2014, 05:01 PM
I think the correct answer as others have said is you decide what you are going to do before the pitch is even thrown while the runner is on first base because as others have said, it's situational. I'd have the pitcher throw over once to keep the runner close just to show the other team that we are "aware" and that might make it less likely that they will try something.

I'm in agreement that it's based on the runner's speed, the number of outs, how good the catcher is at throwing people out, and the score of the game- and a number of other things that I'm probably forgetting.

HereComesTheSpiral
05-19-2014, 05:15 PM
Obviously every situation in baseball is dictated by who is participating in said play. But I like option D which you don't have listed. 2nd baseman covers the bag on the throw to 2nd. SS cuts in between the throw and the bag and depending upon his read of the guy at 3rd he either lets it ride to the 2B on the bag or he cuts it and relays home. We ran that a couple different times this year and got some big outs.

ETA: HereComestheSpiral already said this, but I will keep it here. Love the SS read play but he has to be heady to do it and make it work and look right.

The pitcher also had the option to cut the throw off since he was usually staring at the runner on third.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 05:30 PM
Anybody ever have your catcher throw to the SS against a base-runner taking too great a lead? From a fast-pitch softball perspective again, but we did have a game this year where the other team's runner was taking a lead nearly half-way to 3rd base. A throw to 2nd could easily have given her 3b. A throw to 3rd gets nothing for us, except the possibility of an error allowing advancement. But a quick throw to SS right where the runner was challenging our catcher had real possibilities.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 05:35 PM
FWIW, I agree with the cutoff options, but the question did not allow for any other options. And I did say it was 2 outs. So, with 2 outs, is it really worth the risk to try to get the runner at 2b if the runner has the advantage on the throw, but the defense has the advantage versus the batter? Even a good hitter is going to fail 7 outta 10 times. And a modest runner is going to be safe at 2nd 6-7 outta 10 times on average.

Homedawg
05-19-2014, 08:12 PM
This is typical 1st and 3rd situational baseball that should be practiced by just about every team in America. Was wondering who would say it first.

Actually it's this play w the secondbaseman cutting in front. For several reasons- one he has the runner in front of him so he can see if he breaks. If he doesn't he lets the ball thru. Secondly the secondbaseman doesn't have to turn to make a throw- which a ss would have to. A split second is crucial here. But yes- this is a play in most teams playbooks.

RossDawg82
05-19-2014, 08:35 PM
A whole lot depends on the situation...runner, score, inning, batter, pitcher, etc.
and to give an accurate answer all those need to be known.

None of that matters. I don't care if it's the top of the first or bottom of nine. With two outs you try to hose the runner. Your short stop or second baseman(depending on what side the pitcher throws from) should spy and if the guy breaks from third it's their job to pick it off and go home with it. You never fake a throw with 2 outs man.

CadaverDawg
05-19-2014, 08:45 PM
One thing is for sure, if I tried it once and you let my runner take 2nd....Id steal 2nd every single time I had 1st and 3rd against your team.

Homedawg
05-19-2014, 08:47 PM
None of that matters. I don't care if it's the top of the first or bottom of nine. With two outs you try to hose the runner. Your short stop or second baseman(depending on what side the pitcher throws from) should spy and if the guy breaks from third it's their job to pick it off and go home with it. You never fake a throw with 2 outs man.

By throwing thru every time no matter u are asking to be scored on in the case of a steal and stop. Not throwing thru is way more common w 2 outs than any other number of outs.

engie
05-19-2014, 08:48 PM
None of that matters. I don't care if it's the top of the first or bottom of nine. With two outs you try to hose the runner. Your short stop or second baseman(depending on what side the pitcher throws from) should spy and if the guy breaks from third it's their job to pick it off and go home with it. You never fake a throw with 2 outs man.

Sure you do... There are plenty of situations that you fake a throw there.

MetEdDawg
05-19-2014, 08:53 PM
None of that matters. I don't care if it's the top of the first or bottom of nine. With two outs you try to hose the runner. Your short stop or second baseman(depending on what side the pitcher throws from) should spy and if the guy breaks from third it's their job to pick it off and go home with it. You never fake a throw with 2 outs man.

This would never work in high school unless you have a really talented and smart SS/2B and a catcher with a damn good pop time. Math is not in your favor here in high school.

You figure by the time the catcher releases the ball the guy on 3rd is already 1/4 of the way down the line after a secondary lead and getting extra reading the catcher going to 2nd. So you've only got 67.5 feet to get home from release. You break at release from 3B. Most of your decent catchers in high school you can count on to consistently throw in the 2.05 to 2.2 range. So best case scenario on defense is your SS/2B while trying to legitimately fool the runner on 3B will get the ball around 1.7 seconds best case. Take into account a best case scenario of a .7 second release time to the plate from your SS/2B, and a 1.0 for the ball to travel to home plate and you are at 3.4 seconds total. Take another .2 seconds to drop a tag and you are at 3.6 seconds in a best case scenario. Any decent runner can go 67.5 feet to home in 3.6 seconds in high school, especially if they time their secondary right.

You would have to be pretty damn sure of your defense in the bottom of the 9th (or 7th for high school) to just let a throw ride to 2nd in hopes to get the last out with the potential tying or winning run on 3rd. Way too many things not in your favor as a defense, especially if you never pump fake as a catcher. That's on my scouting report guaranteed, especially if I've contacted other coaches who have played this team. So my goal is to get in a run down as the guy on 1st to give that defense just one more thing to potentially make you lose .1 to .2 of a second making a decision to go home and get my runner out.

I approach this from high school because that's what I coach. The reason teams have scouting reports is so that you can pick up trends and tendencies. Never doing something just makes it that much easier for a team to scout you and prepare a game plan to defeat you.

AlSwearengen
05-19-2014, 08:54 PM
what is the score? what inning? Lots of variables.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 10:00 PM
No other details given. You have the question, just as the coach put it on the form. But let's go ahead and narrow it specifically to 18A girl's fastpitch. The runners are taking their leads on the release of the pitch, so there is no danger of being "caught leaning" etc, nor is there any reason for the runner to be concerned beyond a catcher capable of throwing behind if too big a lead is taken, or being able to get a CS at the best being attempted.

I think for purposes of the question, he's going for, "in general", even though there very well could be "contributing circumstances" that could impact the percentages, etc. So, let's assume, for sake of argument, that the runner is typically going to steal 2nd safely 7.5 times per 10 attempts, and the catcher is going to CS that runner 2.5 out of 10 times. Let's further assume the batter is sporting a .300 BA, and the pitcher a similar BA against. Let's say it's a tie game, and you have 2 outs.

blacklistedbully
05-19-2014, 10:07 PM
This would never work in high school unless you have a really talented and smart SS/2B and a catcher with a damn good pop time. Math is not in your favor here in high school.

You figure by the time the catcher releases the ball the guy on 3rd is already 1/4 of the way down the line after a secondary lead and getting extra reading the catcher going to 2nd. So you've only got 67.5 feet to get home from release. You break at release from 3B. Most of your decent catchers in high school you can count on to consistently throw in the 2.05 to 2.2 range. So best case scenario on defense is your SS/2B while trying to legitimately fool the runner on 3B will get the ball around 1.7 seconds best case. Take into account a best case scenario of a .7 second release time to the plate from your SS/2B, and a 1.0 for the ball to travel to home plate and you are at 3.4 seconds total. Take another .2 seconds to drop a tag and you are at 3.6 seconds in a best case scenario. Any decent runner can go 67.5 feet to home in 3.6 seconds in high school, especially if they time their secondary right.

You would have to be pretty damn sure of your defense in the bottom of the 9th (or 7th for high school) to just let a throw ride to 2nd in hopes to get the last out with the potential tying or winning run on 3rd. Way too many things not in your favor as a defense, especially if you never pump fake as a catcher. That's on my scouting report guaranteed, especially if I've contacted other coaches who have played this team. So my goal is to get in a run down as the guy on 1st to give that defense just one more thing to potentially make you lose .1 to .2 of a second making a decision to go home and get my runner out.

I approach this from high school because that's what I coach. The reason teams have scouting reports is so that you can pick up trends and tendencies. Never doing something just makes it that much easier for a team to scout you and prepare a game plan to defeat you.

Yes, this is what I was thinking. In fact, if I know the defense is likely to bite on the steal attempt, and I need just 1 run, I have my runner at first go a little slowly in an effort to bait them into a throw, and have my runner from first work it into a run-down long enough to get the runner from 3rd home. With 2 outs, I feel my chances of scoring this way are better than relying on my .300 to get a base hit, or relying on the defense to make an error on his play, etc.

engie
05-20-2014, 08:20 AM
Yes, this is what I was thinking. In fact, if I know the defense is likely to bite on the steal attempt, and I need just 1 run, I have my runner at first go a little slowly in an effort to bait them into a throw, and have my runner from first work it into a run-down long enough to get the runner from 3rd home. With 2 outs, I feel my chances of scoring this way are better than relying on my .300 to get a base hit, or relying on the defense to make an error on his play, etc.

The chances of scoring with this method against a good defensive team, especially a good, refined defensive catcher, is probably less than 10%. Like I say -- it's literally the most practiced defensive play in baseball. No one spends 10% as much time on it from the baserunning perspective.

The problem with "get in a rundown for long enough for the run to score" is the assumption that the defense truly cares what that runner at first is doing with 2 outs. Once he stops and isn't going to get second, the 2B/SS that has the ball can just walk him back to first and/or wait till it's a sure throw and tag to the 1B who closes the distance on that play(with the pitcher being next in line at 1B). There's also plenty of time to look/pumpfake the runner at 3B out of his secondary lead when doing this...

What's likely the best chance for success on that is with a RH batter -- and breaking just after the catcher receives the ball from a long secondary. This puts you susceptible to read plays or pump fakes, but almost guarantees that you score if the catcher throws it past the pitcher...

blacklistedbully
05-20-2014, 08:27 AM
The chances of scoring with this method against a good defensive team, especially a good, refined defensive catcher, is probably less than 10%. Like I say -- it's literally the most practiced defensive play in baseball. No one spends 10% as much time on it from the baserunning perspective.

The problem with "get in a rundown for long enough for the run to score" is the assumption that the defense truly cares what that runner at first is doing with 2 outs. Once he stops and isn't going to get second, the 2B/SS that has the ball can just walk him back to first and/or wait till it's a sure throw and tag to the 1B who closes the distance on that play(with the pitcher being next in line at 1B). There's also plenty of time to look/pumpfake the runner at 3B out of his secondary lead when doing this...

What's likely the best chance for success on that is with a RH batter -- and breaking just after the catcher receives the ball from a long secondary. This puts you susceptible to read plays or pump fakes, but almost guarantees that you score if the catcher throws it past the pitcher...


Yes, I was assuming the runner on 3rd would break on the throw, The point of going a little slowly from 1st is to invite the throw down to second. Secondarily, the runner gets into a rundown just to insure she is not tagged before the runner from 3rd crosses the plate. I just didn't think I needed to spell it out so specifically. But I can see where it could be misleading. I most definitely was not suggesting a rundown in order to set up a late break to the plate. In my experience, the percentage of success is much, much higher than 10%, and is even higher than 50% if the throw goes through to 2B. Hell, in my personal experience as a fastpitch coach, we have been successful all of the few times we've called for delayed steals of home, all of which have come about due to a catcher getting a little too casual and tossing the ball just a little too softly back to the pitcher. There is clearly enough time to make it with a good break.

chainedup_Dawg
05-20-2014, 08:35 AM
We used to run a SS read on that play. The SS would cut the ball off and throw home if the runner tried to steal from 3rd. If the runner stayed, they would let it go through to 2nd.


Agreed, except ours was a 2B read because the 2B already has his lead shoulder to plate and has a better view of the runner at 3B

RossDawg82
05-20-2014, 09:07 AM
Well then yes if your team sucks and your catcher cant make the throw to second in the air, you would then want to possibly fake throw. My response before was assuming that the team was decent enough to pull off a play. I have seen it where you have a shortstop or second baseman play the spy role. If your spy has a good enough arm then I would throw through every time and trust that my middle infield is focused enough to watch the runner. The catcher also has a responsibility to see the runner on third. If he is far enough away from the bag then I would hose him. This is an easy question if your team is talented. Not so much if we are talking middle of the road high school ball.

engie
05-20-2014, 09:07 AM
In my experience, the percentage of success is much, much higher than 10%, and is even higher than 50% if the throw goes through to 2B.

The issue is that a good catcher isn't easily baited into making that throw to second with a runner at 3B cheating down the line or otherwise looking to score. Even if the call from the dugout is to throw to second, a catcher is still glancing down at 3B prior to the throw, and it's remarkable what body language/instincts tell you on that play after you've practiced it a million times. Very, very susceptible to a pump fake there if you are leaving early enough to score assuming it's going to be cut by the 2B/SS. And on a steal and stop -- you can pumpfake and go after the runner at 3rd -- and if that one scampers back to 3B, you've still got the guy at 2nd strung out between the bases -- and you've essentially neutralized the threat to score at 3rd. On that play, we were always taught to give it to the pitcher to avoid making the long throw to either base -- and let them walk the runner back to first and into a single throw rundown -- or just let him have first again depending on situation.

chainedup_Dawg
05-20-2014, 09:17 AM
You also have to think about the next batters up. Hell, if it's the bottom of our lineup, I'm giving up 2B if I have to and going after the batter or even the next batter to put a force at any base in play and throwing off speed/keeping the ball low in the zone to induce a groundball. Really there are no wrong answers as all of those plays work to an extent and have worked in the past. You are only wrong if it doesn't work when you call it! All you can really do is analyze the situation i.e. runners, next batters, inning, who do you have coming up in your lineup unless it's the bottom of the 9th, batter, arm strength, etc...the list goes on and make the call you feel comfortable with.

HereComesTheSpiral
05-20-2014, 09:28 AM
Agreed, except ours was a 2B read because the 2B already has his lead shoulder to plate and has a better view of the runner at 3B

Our SS had the better arm so we would run the play through him, but you are right about the body positioning of 2nd.

engie
05-20-2014, 10:13 AM
Our SS had the better arm so we would run the play through him, but you are right about the body positioning of 2nd.

It can go either way. Neither should be looking at the runner at 3rd on the play -- but listening/trusting the 3B to make the correct call.

An advantage of running the 2B in front already mentioned, the advantages of the SS are that he's more outside the line of the throw causing less chance of confusion when you actually suspect that it's a straight steal with no real intention of scoring and you plan to hose the guy at second(this would be done with a very "trusted" batter at the plate). 9/10 of catcher throws sail toward right -- and it's easy for the 2B to get in front/block the SS view of the ball (throws to right side of 2B) and basically handcuff them.

blacklistedbully
05-20-2014, 11:26 AM
Well then yes if your team sucks and your catcher cant make the throw to second in the air, you would then want to possibly fake throw. My response before was assuming that the team was decent enough to pull off a play. I have seen it where you have a shortstop or second baseman play the spy role. If your spy has a good enough arm then I would throw through every time and trust that my middle infield is focused enough to watch the runner. The catcher also has a responsibility to see the runner on third. If he is far enough away from the bag then I would hose him. This is an easy question if your team is talented. Not so much if we are talking middle of the road high school ball.

The most talented catch of all time in MLB at CS was only 57%. EVERYONE ELSE in the history of MLB is under 50%, and the average is somewhere close to 25% or less. ANYBODY's catcher is going to have a less than 50% chance of catching the runner at 2b, unless the runner is just too slow.

smootness
05-20-2014, 12:24 PM
The most talented catch of all time in MLB at CS was only 57%. EVERYONE ELSE in the history of MLB is under 50%, and the average is somewhere close to 25% or less. ANYBODY's catcher is going to have a less than 50% chance of catching the runner at 2b, unless the runner is just too slow.

It's already been stated that you can't use MLB numbers and extrapolate them out to strategy in even college baseball. And you can't do it with softball, either.

Runners are less disciplined and slower on average in college/HS than they are in MLB, at least the ones who run routinely. If you have a really good catcher in HS baseball, he's going to be throwing out a lot of runners.

blacklistedbully
05-20-2014, 12:32 PM
It's already been stated that you can't use MLB numbers and extrapolate them out to strategy in even college baseball. And you can't do it with softball, either.

Runners are less disciplined and slower on average in college/HS than they are in MLB, at least the ones who run routinely. If you have a really good catcher in HS baseball, he's going to be throwing out a lot of runners.

Catchers in softball also do not have major-league arms. I can't concede this point to you without some supporting data.

blacklistedbully
05-20-2014, 12:50 PM
From mysoftballcoach.com:

The main thing to remember about throwing out runners is that this is a speed play. The runner is going to reach the next base in about 3.5 seconds. The ball is in the air approximately 2 seconds via the pitch and the throw from the catcher. That means your catcher and shortstop have about 1.5 seconds to catch the ball, throw the ball, receive the ball, and apply a tag. Any extra movement or hesitation will be very costly.

It is damn near impossible to throw out a decent runner if there is any hesitation. If your runner on 3rd is properly coached, and has decent speed, she should be able to take a good enough lead that will allow her to make sure the ball is released from the catchers hand, then race home to score on a throw to 2nd. In softball the base paths are smaller, but the leads about the same. Even if a ball is cut off a few feet in front of the bag and thrown home, it would take a perfect, strong throw, a clean catch by a catcher blocking the plate well and applying the tag. Even then, it is likely to be an extremely close call, with a higher % of success for the offense than the chance your hitter is going to get a hit to score the run.

smootness
05-20-2014, 12:50 PM
Catchers in softball also do not have major-league arms. I can't concede this point to you without some supporting data.

Softball is just an entirely different game, for several reasons.

blacklistedbully
05-20-2014, 12:56 PM
Softball is just an entirely different game, for several reasons.

I should have separated the baseball & softball aspects from the beginning. My knowledge & experience comes primarily from coaching fastpitch softball. Also, the thing that got me going on it was the fact that it's a question for my daughter to answer for the coach of a summer-ball team who has offered her a spot on his club this summer.

Political Hack
05-20-2014, 01:01 PM
I'd bunt.

sleepy dawg
05-20-2014, 02:25 PM
As others say, it depends on who's coming up. I'd let him steal, the don't let the next guy hit... Throw junk to strike him out or walk him. Again, this assumes some bad ass hitter isn't up next.

tcdog70
05-20-2014, 02:43 PM
Catchers in softball also do not have major-league arms. I can't concede this point to you without some supporting data.

In your case, probably what Engie said is correct. Fire the ball back to your pitcher and let the pitcher hold the runners or throw one out. it is probably different for every team depending on their strengths or weaknesses.

Jack Lambert
05-20-2014, 03:43 PM
Two outs, runners on 1st & 3rd. If the runner on 1st attempts a steal, who should the catcher throw to?:

A) The pitcher
B) The 2B
C) Fake throw to 2B and throw to 3B if runner at 3rd has big lead.

A.

blacklistedbully
05-21-2014, 04:48 PM
A.

Yep, I do believe this is the correct answer, and the thing I'd want my catcher to do, unless I literally had a batter up who we had not been able to get out.

If I truly believed we had a less than 50% chance to get the batter out, I'd call a meeting at the mound before the first pitch, instruct my center fielder to be sure to back up a throw to 2b, have my left fielder ready to back up a throw to 3b, have my 2b cut in front of the bag, tell my catcher to keep the ball low, even aim for a low throw to my 2b playing between the bag and pitcher's mound, tell my pitcher to back up home plate in case of a run-down, tell my 3b to yell, "going" if the runner at 3rd breaks for home, which would tell my 2b to go ahead and take the throw from my catcher and immediately throw home. If 3b doesn't yell, "going" my 2b lets the throw through to my SS covering 2nd and 2b keeps an eye out for a late break by the runner at 3rd. If there is a late break, my 2b yells, "home" and gets in position to support a possible rundown between 3rd & home. If throw goes through to SS, she makes the tag first, then immediately goes home on a late break from 3b, not waiting for call,and also not engaging in a rundown between 1st & 2nd if the runner from 1st pulls up. If runner at 3b doesn't break and runner from 1st invites a rundown, I tell my girls to go ahead and engage. but with the plan to always come off it if there is a late-break from 3b.

Sounds like a lot, but my girls have practiced this, and would be reminded, prior to the play, what each of their roles and priorities are.