By my interpretation, our SEC Tourney scenarios are as follows

[HSVDawg]

Yes, I have way too much time on my hands.

If we are swept at Bama:
- No chance at 1st round bye.
- UF, OM, Bama, and one or both of USC and Vandy would finish ahead of us.
- Only way USC and Vandy don't both finish ahead of us is if one sweeps the other.
- LSU also finishes higher than us unless they are also swept at Auburn.
- Texas A&M may also finish ahead of us if they sweep OM.
- If Ark and A&M both sweep, they may both finish ahead of us depending on how the 3-way tiebreaker shakes out between MSU, Ark, and A&M (see my other post below).
- We could end up anywhere from the #5 seed to the #9 seed.

If we take 1 of 3 at Bama:
- We get 1st round bye if LSU wins 1 or gets swept at AU.
- If LSU sweeps or takes 2 of 3, we are the 5 seed (and no bye).
- If LSU takes 0 or 1 games from Auburn, and USC or Vandy take 2 of 3 from the other, we are the 4 seed as we hold tiebreakers over both USC and Vandy (I think). We would be behind UF, Ole Miss, and the winner of the USC-Vandy series. If USC or Vandy sweeps the other, we are the 4 seed without any tiebreaker necessary.
- We would be either the 4 or 5 seed regardless of what happens in the Ole Miss-A&M series, Vandy-USC series, or UF-UT series. We would not be caught by Bama, A&M, or Ark, or the USC-Vandy series loser and we could not catch OM, UF, or the USC-Vandy series winner.

If we take 2 of 3 at Bama:
- We get 1st round bye unless LSU sweeps Auburn AND either USC or Vandy sweeps the other AND OM takes at least 1 from A&M. In this case we would be the 5 seed.
- If Ole Miss is swept by A&M and LSU takes 2 or less from Auburn, we win the West outright and get the 2 seed (regardless of the outcome in the UF-UT series).
- Any other scenario results in us being the 3 or 4 seed.

If we sweep Bama:
- We are guaranteed a first round bye. LSU-Auburn series is irrelevent.
- If Vandy sweeps USC, UT sweeps UF, AND A&M takes at least 2 from Ole Miss, we share the SEC regular season title with Vandy and get the 1 seed via our head to head series win over them.
- If UF isn't swept by UT, and A&M takes at least 2 from Ole Miss, we are the 2 seed behind UF.
- If Florida is swept by UT, Vandy sweeps USC, AND Ole Miss takes at least 2 from A&M, we will be either the 3 or the 4 seed depending on how the tiebreaker with UF works out.
- Any other scenario results in us being the 3 seed.
- We might be able to finish as high as the #1 seed (?!?) or as low as the #4 seed.

[blacklistedbully]

Haven't looked in detail, but are you factoring in that the division-winners get the top 2 seeds, regardless of record? In other words, even if MSU were to finish tied with TSUN for the best record in the SEC, we could finish no better than 3rd, as we'd be seeded after TSUN (head-to-head) & the East winner, even if they have a worse SEC record.

If we finish tied with Vandy or SCar, and LSU finishes 3rd in our division, we lose those tiebreakers due to the sweep by LSU.

One thing you def have wrong, if we take 2 of 3 from Bama, LSU can't catch us, even with a sweep of AU. We would get a bye as the 4-seed if TSUN wins at least 1 vs TAMU, the 2 seed if TSUN gets swept.

[HSVDawg]

You are right about the division winners getting the 1 and 2 seeds. For some reason I had the basketball format stuck in my head. I think most of it still holds true, but I'll have to do some revision later.

Just for shits and giggles, I 'll still point out that there is still a chance (nearly impossible, however) that we could be the 1 seed if all of the following happens:
1) UT sweeps UF
2) MSU sweeps Bama
3) Vandy sweeps USC
4) A&M takes at least 2 of 3 from the Bears.

In that scenario, MSU would win the West outright at 19-11 with OM finishing 2nd at 18-12 or 17-13. Vandy and UF would be tied for the East title, each at 19-11. Vandy holds the tiebreaker by virtue of taking 2 of 3 from UF this past weekend. MSU and Vandy are therefore the 1 and 2 seeds, with MSU getting the 1 seed since they took 2 of 3 from Vandy.

Also, LSU would finish ahead of us if they win more games than we do this weekend. Their tie with UGA counts as 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses, and the tie counts as a game played. So if they sweep Auburn their final winning percentage is 17.5/29 = .603. If MSU only takes 2 of 3 from Bama, our final winning percentage is 18/30 = .600. Similar math works out if we take 1 and they take 2, or if we take 0 and they take 1.

[curmudgeon]

Makes not getting a hit with the bases loaded three times vs. Tennessee and that error at LSU HUGE when you think about it like that, HSV.

[blacklistedbully]

Yes, I have way too much time on my hands.

If we are swept at Bama:
- No chance at 1st round bye.
- UF, OM, Bama, and one or both of USC and Vandy would finish ahead of us.
- Only way USC and Vandy don't both finish ahead of us is if one sweeps the other.
- LSU also finishes higher than us unless they are also swept at Auburn.
- Texas A&M may also finish ahead of us if they sweep OM.
- If Ark and A&M both sweep, they may both finish ahead of us depending on how the 3-way tiebreaker shakes out between MSU, Ark, and A&M (I'm too lazy too look it up).
- We could end up anywhere from the #5 seed to the #9 seed.

If we take 1 of 3 at Bama:
- We get 1st round bye if LSU wins 1 or gets swept at AU.
- If LSU sweeps or takes 2 of 3, we are the 5 seed (and no bye). The one possible exception is if OM is swept by A&M, and neither Vandy nor USC sweeps the other. End result would be a 3 way tie between MSU, OM, and the loser of the USC-Vandy series. The winner of the tiebreaker gets the #4 seed and final 1st round bye behind UF, USC-Vandy series winner, and LSU. The remaining two teams would be the 5 & 6 seeds (again, too lazy to look up how it would shake out).
- If LSU takes 0 or 1 games from Auburn, OM is swept by A&M, and USC or Vandy take 2 of 3 from the other, you have the same 3-way tie between MSU-OM-USC/Vandy, except the tiebreaker would determine seeds 3-5 instead of seeds 4-6.
- We could get as high as the 3 seed or as low as the 6 seed.

If we take 2 of 3 at Bama:
- We get 1st round bye unless LSU sweeps Auburn AND either USC or Vandy sweeps the other.
- If Ole Miss only takes 1 from A&M, and neither USC or Vandy sweeps the other, you have the same tiebreaker scenario mentioned above between MSU, OM, and either USC or Vandy. That tiebreaker would determine seeds 2, 3, and 4 (if LSU doesn't sweep), or seeds 3, 4, and 5 (if LSU does sweep).
- We could be seeded as high as #2 and as low as #5.

If we sweep Bama:
- We are guaranteed a first round bye. LSU-Auburn series is irrelevent.
- There could conceivably be a 4-way tie between UF, OM, MSU, and the USC-Vandy series winner for the SEC regular season title if UT sweeps UF, OM wins 2 of 3 over A&M, and either USC or Vandy sweeps the other. I have absolutely no idea how this would end up.
-A plethora of 2-way and 3-way tiebreakers could also occur between the teams mentioned above, either for the SEC regular season title or for seeds 2 - 4. I won't take the time to list them all.
- We might be able to finish as high as the #1 seed (?!?) or as low as the #4 seed.

Clear as mud, huh? If anyone can shed some light on the tiebreaker scenarios (specifically, MSU-OM-Vandy, MSU-OM-USC, and MSU-A&M-Ark) that may further help shape our forecast.

If we tie with TSUN, they take the tie-breaker for the division based on SEC head-to-head (the Gov Cup game we won won't count as an SEC game). TSUN would get the top seed from the West (1 or 2), Vandy would take the top seed from the East if they sweep SCar. If SCar sweeps Vandy, UF wins the top seed from the East.

If Vandy wins East, it would be between us & UF for 3rd & 4th seed. If LSU finishes ahead of Arky, UF gets the 3-seed. If Arky edges LSU, and UK finishes ahead of UT, UF gets the 3-seed. Only way we take the 3-seed from UF is if Arky finishes ahead of LSU & UK finishes behind UT, but ahead of UGA.

If UF wins the East, SCar would take the #3 seed due to their sweep over Vandy.

[blacklistedbully]

You are right about the division winners getting the 1 and 2 seeds. For some reason I had the basketball format stuck in my head. I think most of it still holds true, but I'll have to do some revision later.

Just for shits and giggles, I 'll still point out that there is still a chance (nearly impossible, however) that we could be the 1 seed if all of the following happens:
1) UT sweeps UF
2) MSU sweeps Bama
3) Vandy sweeps USC
4) A&M takes at least 2 of 3 from the Bears.

In that scenario, MSU would win the West outright at 19-11 with OM finishing 2nd at 18-12 or 17-13. Vandy and UF would be tied for the East title, each at 19-11. Vandy holds the tiebreaker by virtue of taking 2 of 3 from UF this past weekend. MSU and Vandy are therefore the 1 and 2 seeds, with MSU getting the 1 seed since they took 2 of 3 from Vandy.

Also, LSU would finish ahead of us if they win more games than we do this weekend. Their tie with UGA counts as 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses, and the tie counts as a game played. So if they sweep Auburn their final winning percentage is 17.5/29 = .603. If MSU only takes 2 of 3 from Bama, our final winning percentage is 18/30 = .600. Similar math works out if we take 1 and they take 2, or if we take 0 and they take 1.

That's correct. I forgot about adding the 1/2 win. Reminds me of when we lost out on a tie-breaker to SCar last year when they had a game cancelled versus Vandy. We lost on the percentage points. Had SCar lost that 3rd game to Vandy, we would have finished ahead of them.

[blacklistedbully]

Things are such a crap shoot, who knows which of the top 4 seeds will actually wind up with the best match-up in their first game of the SECT. Getting in the Top 4 is all that matters, IMO, due to the bye. After that, it's kinda hard to tell which of the 4 seeds will have it better or worse.

If we manage to make the top 4 seeds, I'm guessing the most likely scenario has the 3 & 4 seed playing from SCar, Vandy & LSU. Pick your poison.

I guess it might make a difference to get a 1 or 2 seed, as that first game probably comes against a step down from the above. But I don't see the 3 versus 4 seed making a difference.

[curmudgeon]

Things are such a crap shoot, who knows which of the top 4 seeds will actually wind up with the best match-up in their first game of the SECT. Getting in the Top 4 is all that matters, IMO, due to the bye. After that, it's kinda hard to tell which of the 4 seeds will have it better or worse.

If we manage to make the top 4 seeds, I'm guessing the most likely scenario has the 3 & 4 seed playing from SCar, Vandy & LSU. Pick your poison.

I guess it might make a difference to get a 1 or 2 seed, as that first game probably comes against a step down from the above. But I don't see the 3 versus 4 seed making a difference.

The only difference is the bye to the double elimination round. The 5-12 and 6-11 games are single elimination.

[curmudgeon]

Things are such a crap shoot, who knows which of the top 4 seeds will actually wind up with the best match-up in their first game of the SECT. Getting in the Top 4 is all that matters, IMO, due to the bye. After that, it's kinda hard to tell which of the 4 seeds will have it better or worse.

If we manage to make the top 4 seeds, I'm guessing the most likely scenario has the 3 & 4 seed playing from SCar, Vandy & LSU. Pick your poison.

I guess it might make a difference to get a 1 or 2 seed, as that first game probably comes against a step down from the above. But I don't see the 3 versus 4 seed making a difference.

The only difference is the bye to the double elimination round. The 5-12 and 6-11 games are single elimination. And if you want to advance, South Carolina is a good team to play. Ray Tanner doesn't give a crap about the SEC Tournament.

[HSVDawg]

It certainly may come back to haunt us.

I also did some research on the 3 way tiebreaker if we somehow get swept and Ark and TAMU both sweep. That would put us, Ark, and TAMU all at 16-14. When you look at head to head, all teams are 3-3 against each other so it goes to the next tiebreaker of divisional record. Under that scenario, TAMU would finish 10-8 in the division, followed by Ark at 8-10 and then MSU at 7-11. I'm not sure if TAMU would win the 3 way tiebreaker, and then leave a 2 way tiebreaker between MSU and Ark that MSU would win via head to head, or if the 3 way tiebreaker alone would be used to rank the teams. But if that scenario happened,, and USC, Vandy, and LSU all won at least one game , then MSU would finish as the 8 or 9 seed. It really shows the parity of the league when a team can go into the final weekend conference series with a mathematical chance to finish anywhere from 1st to 8th or 9th in the conference.

[basedog]

Winning ugly is a good thing! We can win two this weekend by winning ugly. I like our chances, there is just something about this team that makes us jump off the wagon one game and back on again the next. But then I read post by a few and you would think we have a Ron Polk coached team which was bad as asbad can get his last years!

Btw, I have a couple of Lsu big time fans who cuss like sailors when discussing their team and coach. They sound exactly like some of our fans, "why bunt, we have midgets, we can't hit, we are the worse team, we are over-coached and we can't get timely hits, we suck".

16-11 is good, hopefully we win a few more this week, ugly and all.

[Tbonewannabe]

These scenarios are a lot better than Polk II scenarios on can we actually make the tourney and if we don't can we still get in a regional.

The future is so bright for MSU baseball, we all should wear shades.

[blacklistedbully]

The only difference is the bye to the double elimination round. The 5-12 and 6-11 games are single elimination.

That's what I meant. Getting a bye to the double-elimination round is big. Who we'd face as a 3 versus 4 seed is probably of no consequence. Who we'd face as a 1 or 2 seed versus a 3 or 4 may be a little something. I'd rather face an Arky, UK or UT than a Vandy, SCar or LSU, if I had my druthers.

[blacklistedbully]

I will add this. The SCar at Vandy series should be a good one. Will be fun to follow.

[CJDAWG85]

We just need to win and let everything will work itself out.

[Schultzy]

Ideally, we manage to get the bye, win one or two games then get bounced so we can get back home and rest some arms for the regionals.