Hosting. Did the other Bulldogs do us a favor?

[curmudgeon]

After losing 2 of 3 to Texas A&M and dropping a midweek game to Jacksonville State, I assumed all hope of hosting was gone, and we were destined to be a 2 seed at Virginia or Florida State. But some strange things happened this weekend, and I believe that door is open. Its a narrow entrance, but its not shut.

A road sweep of Auburn was unexpected. It basically gave us back the one game we lost to Texas A&M.
We are sitting at 14-10 in conference, the best 24-game mark under Cohen.
What is hurting us RPI-wise is several non-conference losses. You can get away with 2 or 3, but we have eight. The average RPI of our eight non-conference losses: 130.

But we find ourselves in third place in the best conference in America. The ACC is second, and they will probably only have two hosts. A couple weeks ago, it looked like the SEC might be in line for five hosts, but with South Carolina losing 2 of 3 to Georgia, I believe the SEC will get its traditional four host spots.

Florida is a lock for a national seed.
Ole Miss and LSU are locks for regionals. Ole Miss is still playing for a national seed.

That leaves one more spot for an SEC host. The contenders are clearly Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Mississippi State.

Right now, Vandy's #5 RPI gives them the clear edge. We need that to go down big time. They finish with Florida and South Carolina. If Vandy were to finish 2-4 (taking one from each), then we could finish 3 games ahead of Vandy with a series win in the SEC standings if we went 5-1 to finish out the year (sweeping Tennessee, taking 2 from Bama)

South Carolina is where it is difficult. We need them to take 2 of 3 from Vandy, but we need them to lose 2 of 3 to Missouri to create that three game space. Like I said, a difficult task. Missouri is awful.

In my opinion, here are your teams in contention to host:

National Seed Locks (6):
Virginia
Florida
Florida State
Indiana
Oregon State
Louisiana-Lafayette

Playing for a National Seed, Regional Host Locks (4):
Rice
TCU
Ole Miss
Louisville

Regional Host Locks (2)
LSU
Cal Poly

Four More Hosts from this Group:
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Miami
Washington
Oklahoma State
Texas
Houston
Mississippi State

Right now, I'd say Vandy, Miami, Washington and Oklahoma State would get the final four hosts.

[M.Fillmore]

Washington is a lock to host. No way the NCAA omits having a west coast regional.

We need aTm to come through against the Bears. I really don't want them to be a national seed.

[maroonmania]

Our RPI is going to be our downfall when it comes to hosting. Even if we were to win the next 6 straight, which is unlikely, we will be lucky to get our RPI to much better than mid to upper 20s. That's still a reach to get a hosting spot.

[curmudgeon]

Last year was the only year in the last 10 that a high 20s RPI team did not host. Oklahoma State is sitting at 28 and I think they host right now.

Washington has to win the Pac 12 to host. Oregon State and Cal Poly are West Coast locks. I believe Washington will host.

If we don't host, I believe we will go to Miami, TCU or Oklahoma State as the 2 seed, possibly matched up with a national seed Ole Miss.

[Dental Dawg]

I would be sick if we lost to Ole Miss in a super regional and they went to Omaha. But it would be great to butt screw those bastards and keep them at home again.

[maroonmania]

Last year was the only year in the last 10 that a high 20s RPI team did not host. Oklahoma State is sitting at 28 and I think they host right now.

Washington has to win the Pac 12 to host. Oregon State and Cal Poly are West Coast locks. I believe Washington will host.

If we don't host, I believe we will go to Miami, TCU or Oklahoma State as the 2 seed, possibly matched up with a national seed Ole Miss.

They are not likely to go out of their way though to give an SEC team with a questionable RPI a hosting spot, that's the problem. For other regions in the country or other conferences they would be much more forgiving of that. And they won't lack for SEC hosts anyway as you already have Florida, Vandy, OM, South Carolina and LSU all in the Top 17 RPI wise and not likely to fall much. We might as well face the music that the door for hosting was pretty much shut with the Jacksonville St. loss.

[smootness]

We're not going to host, it doesn't really matter what we do the rest of the regular season. We honestly should stop discussing it because it will only lead to disappointment.

We'll be a good 2 seed that nobody wants in their regional, and we'll probably have a decent shot at winning it.

[maroonmania]

We're not going to host, it doesn't really matter what we do the rest of the regular season. We honestly should stop discussing it because it will only lead to disappointment.

We'll be a good 2 seed that nobody wants in their regional, and we'll probably have a decent shot at winning it.

Agree, and that is the point I was trying to make.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Hosting ain't going to happen- I'd put the odds at .000001%. There are too many SEC teams ahead of us in the pecking order with better resumes than us.

The team just needs to focus on building off this weekend and getting some momentum rolling. We are still very capable of going on the road and winning another team's regional if we can score some runs.

[LiterallyPolice]

We're not going to host, it doesn't really matter what we do the rest of the regular season. We honestly should stop discussing it because it will only lead to disappointment.

We'll be a good 2 seed that nobody wants in their regional, and we'll probably have a decent shot at winning it.

^^ This.

Yes, there is a small (like, very small) chance we can host... but I'm not setting myself up for that disappointment. But that doesn't mean we don't have anything to play for. Let's go out there and compete for the West, and make sure we are peaking come post season.

[Tbonewannabe]

We HAVE to take care of business with the regular season and then the SEC tourney will decide if we host. If we can win and SC or Vandy lose, it might bump us up to hosting. We win the SEC tourney along with our last 2 series, we should host.

[Todd4State]

Good stuff. And this is why we have to win out- and even that may not be enough.

[BulldogBear]

I don't think we can lose more than 1 the rest of the way including the SEC tournament to continue this conversation. IOW, we have to win the SEC tournament. Either lose ONE tournament game on our way to winning it, having swept Auburn (done), Tennessee and Alabama to end the reg season....OR drop one to UT or UA and sweep the tournament. If we do that I think we WILL host. If we don't, we WILL NOT. At this point it really may be that simple.

[HailState39110]

We would need to sweep Tennessee and win 2 of 3 vs Bama to make an argument (or win out)

I think if we tied OM and/or LSU for the West it would hard to deny us. Think about it. Let's say us and OM both finished 19-11 in conference , we would be 2-2 vs each other, both teams would have swept Auburn and Mizzou, both teams will have taken 2/3 vs Arkansas, etc . There would be too much in common with us to give them say a nat'l seed and we are a 2 seed somewhere . I ,frankly , would be very pissed about the situation

[Todd4State]

We would need to sweep Tennessee and win 2 of 3 vs Bama to make an argument (or win out)

I think if we tied OM and/or LSU for the West it would hard to deny us. Think about it. Let's say us and OM both finished 19-11 in conference , we would be 2-2 vs each other, both teams would have swept Auburn and Mizzou, both teams will have taken 2/3 vs Arkansas, etc . There would be too much in common with us to give them say a nat'l seed and we are a 2 seed somewhere . I ,frankly , would be very pissed about the situation

Especially since we decided to play Arizona and Cal Santa-Barbara on the road and they decided to play Georgia State.

[Jacksondevildog]

Nm
Especially since we decided to play Arizona and Cal Santa-Barbara on the road and they decided to play Georgia State.

[blacklistedbully]

But we also have some very ugly losses, they don't. And they swept 8 teams this year so far.

[curmudgeon]

We need to finish one game ahead of Ole Miss and LSU (win the West) with a three game lead on South Carolina and Vandy.

We do look a lot like Arkansas did last year, but we were 2 games back of them and they skipped #4 in the SEC Arkansas to get to #5 in the SEC Mississippi State. That's a lot different than skipping #2 in the SEC Mississippi State to get to #3, #4 and #5 in the SEC which is three games back.

RPI is only a part of the conversation. The #2 team in the toughest conference has a legitimate argument to host, just on that merit alone. Never before has the #2 team in the SEC not hosted in the 16-regional format and only once did the #3 team not host.

[messageboardsuperhero]

We would need to sweep Tennessee and win 2 of 3 vs Bama to make an argument (or win out)

I think if we tied OM and/or LSU for the West it would hard to deny us. Think about it. Let's say us and OM both finished 19-11 in conference , we would be 2-2 vs each other, both teams would have swept Auburn and Mizzou, both teams will have taken 2/3 vs Arkansas, etc . There would be too much in common with us to give them say a nat'l seed and we are a 2 seed somewhere . I ,frankly , would be very pissed about the situation

Speaking of the UM comparison, our RPI difference is very interesting if you look at it deeply.

Their record vs. top 100 teams- 16-12
Our record vs. top 100 teams- 15-13

So each team has played 28 games against "quality competition," and they are only one game better (virtually identical, really). Here is where they have separated themselves from us in the world of RPI:

Their record vs. RPI 100+ teams- 19-2
Our record vs. TPI 100+ teams- 16-5

In 21 games against sub-par competition, they are three games better- in other words, they took care of business against the bad teams they played. Just think, if we don't completely blow the Memphis and Holy Cross games in the first couple of weeks in the season, and they drop one of those 4-5 walk off comebacks they had early in the year- we would be ahead of them in the pecking order. This is why every little midweek and early season game counts. The roles could easily be reversed right now, but you've got to give them credit- UM earned to be in the position they're in by winning the games they should have.

Another thing they did was schedule smarter. They played their bad RPI 200+ series on the road, and we played four home games against Holy Cross (and lost two of them to boot). Home and away is huge in RPI, so if we play bad teams, we should try to play them on the road. UM also lost their games at the "right time," meaning when they did lose, it was usually on the road against a good opponent. It also helps them that the UCF team they swept early turned out to be good, and Arizona sucking hurts us as well. I know we couldn't predict the Arizona collapse, but I'd really like to see us schedule better in the future...

[curmudgeon]

No kidding. Those two losses to Holy Cross have cost us 15 spots in the RPI. Bad, bad losses.

Last year, we played 41 games against Top 50 teams before the NCAA Tournament. We ended up playing 50 and going 30-20.
This year, we have played 16, although we have 6 more. Assuming we play 3 in the SEC Tournament, that will only be 25, almost half of what we played last year. That has also hurt our RPI.

[messageboardsuperhero]

No kidding. Those two losses to Holy Cross have cost us 15 spots in the RPI. Bad, bad losses.

Last year, we played 41 games against Top 50 teams before the NCAA Tournament. We ended up playing 50 and going 30-20.
This year, we have played 16, although we have 6 more. Assuming we play 3 in the SEC Tournament, that will only be 25, almost half of what we played last year. That has also hurt our RPI.

Yep. If we win those two games in the second week of the season, we're right in the middle of the hosting discussion.

Instead, we have almost zero chance.