Rain Chances for Tonight

[TheRef]

Gentlemen, I hate to say it but we might have a rain-delayed game tonight if it goes past the 3-hour timeframe I generally put on games. I'll do an update later this afternoon, but early indications are that we might be pushing some precip late in the game. Stay tuned...

[TheRef]

Slightly off-topic. But for those of you in Northern Louisiana, SE Arkansas, and Mississippi Delta, there is a Mesoscale Discussion concerning the area. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has given a 60% chance of a Tornado WATCH being issued for the area within the hour. Main threats are damaging winds, severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes.

Full MD: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0395.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0395.gif

[TheRef]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the area described in the earlier Mesoscale Discussion. This looks pretty substantial and it was a good call by SPC to not put out the Tornado Watch but to put out a Severe T'storm Watch. Main threats: Hail and Winds. Isolated Tornadoes.

Full Watch description and discussion: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0090.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0090_radar.gif

[starkvegasdawg]

Precursor of things to come...

[TheRef]

Precursor of things to come...

Sunday looks like the best day for severe wx....Monday still looks pretty good. Saturday doesn't look as good as it did yesterday. But Sunday is like the old Monster Truck commercials "SUNDAY! SUNDAY! SUNDAYYYYYYY"

[starkvegasdawg]

Sunday looks like the best day for severe wx....Monday still looks pretty good. Saturday doesn't look as good as it did yesterday. But Sunday is like the old Monster Truck commercials "SUNDAY! SUNDAY! SUNDAYYYYYYY"

Where do you put the threat area for Sunday and thoughts on tornadoes both days?

[TheRef]

Where do you put the threat area for Sunday and thoughts on tornadoes both days?

I agree with SPC on this one. Main threat area for Sunday will be Eastern OK & TX, and Western AR & LA. I wouldn't be surprised to see some good looking tornadoes on Sunday. We will have our first real tornado outbreak during this system. I like how Patrick Marsh put it on Twitter: Saturday = April 26, 2011, Sunday = April 27, 2011.

[starkvegasdawg]

I agree with SPC on this one. Main threat area for Sunday will be Eastern OK & TX, and Western AR & LA. I wouldn't be surprised to see some good looking tornadoes on Sunday. We will have our first real tornado outbreak during this system. I like how Patrick Marsh put it on Twitter: Saturday = April 26, 2011, Sunday = April 27, 2011.

Are you thinking a smaller threat on Monday - I did see where Forbes has jumped our TORCON for Monday up to 5 for what that's worth. I've been waiting to get within that 84 hour window when the NAM starts to make predictions and I have something other than the GFS to look at. Western AR/LA is a little further than I want to drive to chase.

Speaking of 4/27/2011, I went back just a few minutes ago and read the Day 4 outlook from the SPC for that day just to see how they compared.

[TheRef]

Are you thinking a smaller threat on Monday - I did see where Forbes has jumped our TORCON for Monday up to 5 for what that's worth. I've been waiting to get within that 84 hour window when the NAM starts to make predictions and I have something other than the GFS to look at. Western AR/LA is a little further than I want to drive to chase.

Speaking of 4/27/2011, I went back just a few minutes ago and read the Day 4 outlook from the SPC for that day just to see how they compared.

Like I said, Sunday is the best chance for tornadoes. I'm not counting out tornadoes for Monday, however. Also, the ECMWF has been handling this system better than any of the other models (CMC, GFS, NAEFS, etc.). Use weather underground to view the ECMWF for free.