curmudgeon
04-23-2014, 09:22 AM
Gentlemen,
When all results were in last night, we sit 32nd in the RPI. I believe that we still have a chance to host. Last year was a fluke, as it is the only year I ever remember that the actual Top 16 teams in the RPI hosted. Most years, there is a team in the high 20s and even low 30s that hosts.
Let's geek out a little bit.
While most consider "our RPI" as 32, our RPI is actually 0.5626. The #25 team in the RPI is Old Dominion, at 0.5699
Taking 2 of 3 from everyone from here on out is the minimum that we need to do to get into the hosting discussion, which we will look at below. Here, I wanted to show what taking 2 of 3 and sweeping A&M would do for our RPI.
First, lets look at taking 2 out of 3.
This would improve our RPI to 0.5710. If everyone in front of us held steady or dropped, our ceiling would be 25th. Of course, teams ranked 20-24 could fall and open up a slot or two, but taking 2 of 3 would be a high of 25 and a low of 32.
Now the sweep would improve our RPI to 0.5772. A sweep gives us a ceiling of 20th.
Again, this is not saying if we take 2/3 we will be 25th and if we swept we will be 20th. It says that is what is possible.
Now, a look at the teams ranked 20-31 that we need to jump.
Teams ranked 25-31
31. Tennessee (at LSU)
30. Mercer (at Florida Gulf Coast)
29. West Virginia (Marshall, Kansas State)
28. Georgia Tech (at NC State)
27. Stanford (Cal)
26. Miami (at FAU, at Clemson)
25. Old Dominion (at MTSU)
Mercer and Old Dominion probably need to sweep to hold serve. A loss to one of those sub-100 teams would hurt them badly. They are both on the road, so they are likely to drop at least one.
Tennessee might pick up 1 against LSU, but that would not offset a sweep of A&M by MSU. If we were to take 2 and UT takes 1 from LSU, they would probably stay ahead of us.
West Virginia, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Miami all have similar tasks to us this week, playing a team ranked between 60-80. Miami and Tech are on the road, so we do not need them to sweep a road series.
Now, a look at teams ranked 20-24. These will be hard to catch this week, but worth watching because we will have to catch them.
24. Louisville (Morehead State, Connecticut)
23. Oregon State (Oregon)
22. Oregon (at Oregon State)
21. Maryland (at Boston College)
20. Indiana State (at Butler, Dallas Baptist)
Louisville has five games against really bad teams this week. Going 5-0 will probably not help them that much. If somehow they went 3-2, they are passable this week with a sweep. Oregon/Oregon State winner will move into host position. If one of them were to sweep, the loser could drop but not too far. Maryland losing 2/3 to BC would be huge. Indiana State will probably hold serve, as Dallas Baptist is a top 35 RPI team.
So what about hosting? Last year, there were about 18 teams at most competing for 16 host spots. This year, its a little more up for grabs.
First, the eight locks:
Florida, Florida State, Virginia, South Carolina, Indiana, Texas, Rice, LSU
And four probable locks:
Cal Poly, Ole Miss, Louisiana-Lafayette, Washington
National seeds are bolded
Four more spots and here are the teams in the hunt - my order.
Alabama (but dropping rapidly)
TCU (almost a lock as co-leaders in the Big 12)
Louisville (lower RPI, 3 GB in weaker conference)
Oregon/Oregon State winner
------------
Kentucky (7th place in conference)
Vanderbilt (8th place in conference)
Houston (needs to start winning, dropping rapidly despite top 10 RPI)
Texas Tech (low conference place)
Mississippi State (low RPI)
There are two things working here. Not only do we have to pass some teams nationally and have some teams lose. We have to finish in the top three of the SEC. I have five SEC teams hosting, and two more on the waiting list. If TCU and Houston were to drop, two non-SEC teams would take their place. So, instead of watching teams like TCU and Houston, Lousville and Texas Tech, we have to have teams like Ole Miss, Kentucky and Alabama start losing at the same time we are winning.
Ole Miss goes to Kentucky this weekend. It probably does us more good for Ole Miss to take 2 of 3, even though it strengthens their bid, we are closer to Kentucky's bid. Another argument is that if we end up head to head with Ole Miss for a host spot, we went 2-2 and we draw great crowds. Ole Miss is going to have a higher RPI and they draw great crowds as well - trust me we will lose that battle. We have a better chance if we finish 2-3 games ahead of Kentucky.
Alabama is at South Carolina. South Carolina needs to win that series without sweeping. Bama is going to keep dropping in future weeks. We don't need USC to start running away with second place.
When all results were in last night, we sit 32nd in the RPI. I believe that we still have a chance to host. Last year was a fluke, as it is the only year I ever remember that the actual Top 16 teams in the RPI hosted. Most years, there is a team in the high 20s and even low 30s that hosts.
Let's geek out a little bit.
While most consider "our RPI" as 32, our RPI is actually 0.5626. The #25 team in the RPI is Old Dominion, at 0.5699
Taking 2 of 3 from everyone from here on out is the minimum that we need to do to get into the hosting discussion, which we will look at below. Here, I wanted to show what taking 2 of 3 and sweeping A&M would do for our RPI.
First, lets look at taking 2 out of 3.
This would improve our RPI to 0.5710. If everyone in front of us held steady or dropped, our ceiling would be 25th. Of course, teams ranked 20-24 could fall and open up a slot or two, but taking 2 of 3 would be a high of 25 and a low of 32.
Now the sweep would improve our RPI to 0.5772. A sweep gives us a ceiling of 20th.
Again, this is not saying if we take 2/3 we will be 25th and if we swept we will be 20th. It says that is what is possible.
Now, a look at the teams ranked 20-31 that we need to jump.
Teams ranked 25-31
31. Tennessee (at LSU)
30. Mercer (at Florida Gulf Coast)
29. West Virginia (Marshall, Kansas State)
28. Georgia Tech (at NC State)
27. Stanford (Cal)
26. Miami (at FAU, at Clemson)
25. Old Dominion (at MTSU)
Mercer and Old Dominion probably need to sweep to hold serve. A loss to one of those sub-100 teams would hurt them badly. They are both on the road, so they are likely to drop at least one.
Tennessee might pick up 1 against LSU, but that would not offset a sweep of A&M by MSU. If we were to take 2 and UT takes 1 from LSU, they would probably stay ahead of us.
West Virginia, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Miami all have similar tasks to us this week, playing a team ranked between 60-80. Miami and Tech are on the road, so we do not need them to sweep a road series.
Now, a look at teams ranked 20-24. These will be hard to catch this week, but worth watching because we will have to catch them.
24. Louisville (Morehead State, Connecticut)
23. Oregon State (Oregon)
22. Oregon (at Oregon State)
21. Maryland (at Boston College)
20. Indiana State (at Butler, Dallas Baptist)
Louisville has five games against really bad teams this week. Going 5-0 will probably not help them that much. If somehow they went 3-2, they are passable this week with a sweep. Oregon/Oregon State winner will move into host position. If one of them were to sweep, the loser could drop but not too far. Maryland losing 2/3 to BC would be huge. Indiana State will probably hold serve, as Dallas Baptist is a top 35 RPI team.
So what about hosting? Last year, there were about 18 teams at most competing for 16 host spots. This year, its a little more up for grabs.
First, the eight locks:
Florida, Florida State, Virginia, South Carolina, Indiana, Texas, Rice, LSU
And four probable locks:
Cal Poly, Ole Miss, Louisiana-Lafayette, Washington
National seeds are bolded
Four more spots and here are the teams in the hunt - my order.
Alabama (but dropping rapidly)
TCU (almost a lock as co-leaders in the Big 12)
Louisville (lower RPI, 3 GB in weaker conference)
Oregon/Oregon State winner
------------
Kentucky (7th place in conference)
Vanderbilt (8th place in conference)
Houston (needs to start winning, dropping rapidly despite top 10 RPI)
Texas Tech (low conference place)
Mississippi State (low RPI)
There are two things working here. Not only do we have to pass some teams nationally and have some teams lose. We have to finish in the top three of the SEC. I have five SEC teams hosting, and two more on the waiting list. If TCU and Houston were to drop, two non-SEC teams would take their place. So, instead of watching teams like TCU and Houston, Lousville and Texas Tech, we have to have teams like Ole Miss, Kentucky and Alabama start losing at the same time we are winning.
Ole Miss goes to Kentucky this weekend. It probably does us more good for Ole Miss to take 2 of 3, even though it strengthens their bid, we are closer to Kentucky's bid. Another argument is that if we end up head to head with Ole Miss for a host spot, we went 2-2 and we draw great crowds. Ole Miss is going to have a higher RPI and they draw great crowds as well - trust me we will lose that battle. We have a better chance if we finish 2-3 games ahead of Kentucky.
Alabama is at South Carolina. South Carolina needs to win that series without sweeping. Bama is going to keep dropping in future weeks. We don't need USC to start running away with second place.