Sports Science say NCAA HR's are down 57% since 2010

[Coach34]

Offensive production is on track to be the lowest in 40 years

boring as ****

I hope the new seams help

[Esmerelda Villalobos]

Better than lsu coming to town and hittimg 15 homeruns in a weekend.

I remember a game about 10 years ago where one team hit 9 home runs.

[Todd4State]

I agree coach- the BBCOR bats have not made college baseball very fan friendly. People want to see home runs. Arguably the most exciting play in sports.

Lowering the seams will help- but I still don't expect college baseball to be all that friendly to power hitters.

The way Cohen is recruiting, it should help a team like us in that we have some power guys coming in- but we are still bringing in some guys that can run and steal bases, and we will always be built around good pitching and defense no matter what. But I say it will help us because the power that we are bringing in will give us an extra dimension against a team that is big time small ball.

The seams being lowered will hurt a mid major like a Central Arkansas because now, they can play small ball, hope the other team screws up, and if they throw well on the mound they can pull an upset.

[smootness]

I don't want to see home run after home run. That is what becomes boring to me.

Of course, I also don't want to see a ton of 1-0, 2-1 games unless the pitchers are just that good. Something in between is good, where a good pitcher can shut you down but one who isn't on his game can get knocked around.

[engie]

The difference in distance with the new balls will be marked... You are looking at getting back 65-85% of the distance that we have lost... The homerun production will be closer to the previous BESR standards than it is to the current BBCOR standards.

Read up on it...It's interesting stuff. I'm excited about it next year.

Also worth noting that I know quite a few people that have thrown the MLB ball. Generally speaking, it has no effect on elite pitchers. It'll limit the movement on mediocre pitchers somewhat though...

[Coach34]

smaller seams- less resistance- should that also not help power pitchers throw harder?

I dont think the 15 extra feet the ball might travel will be enough to help HR production all that much

[Coach34]

Better than lsu coming to town and hittimg 15 homeruns in a weekend.

I remember a game about 10 years ago where one team hit 9 home runs.

But at least we can recruit beasts to hit HR's too....it doesnt matter with these bats- nobody is a beast and it's just shitty to watch.

College baseball today is like watching Little League players play on a High School field.

[PassInterference]

smaller seams- less resistance- should that also not help power pitchers throw harder?

I dont think the 15 extra feet the ball might travel will be enough to help HR production all that much

I was gonna ask how the lower seams are going to help. The seams are a super small percentage of the diameter of the baseball. I don't see them creating much wind resistance.

To lower seams make it harder to pitch? Do pitchers need to grip the seams to throw certain pitches. Lower seams = less grip or rotational torque against the seams.

[War Machine Dawg]

But at least we can recruit beasts to hit HR's too....it doesnt matter with these bats- nobody is a beast and it's just shitty to watch.

College baseball today is like watching Little League players play on a High School field.

It's frustrating as **** to watch a guy the size of Grizzly Rea square up a ball, I mean absolutely murder it, and have it wind up dying 5 feet shy of the warning track. The pitchers have such a huge advantage now, it's ridiculous. I also agree that I don't see the new seams helping all that much.

[engie]

smaller seams- less resistance- should that also not help power pitchers throw harder?

I dont think the 15 extra feet the ball might travel will be enough to help HR production all that much

Not notably over that distance.

The BBCOR bats only took away 24-28 feet depending on study. An extra 15-20 feet from these balls give a large part of that back. It's a simple interpolation between the two homer percentages to figure the approximate percentage of extra homeruns we'll be seeing from it... Numbers will put us close to what we saw post-99 thru 08. About 0.8hr/game...

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/baseball_RB/reports/TrendsYBY.pdf

[engie]

I was gonna ask how the lower seams are going to help. The seams are a super small percentage of the diameter of the baseball. I don't see them creating much wind resistance.

To lower seams make it harder to pitch? Do pitchers need to grip the seams to throw certain pitches. Lower seams = less grip or rotational torque against the seams.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9361237

They create a ton of wind resistance.

[War Machine Dawg]

I was gonna ask how the lower seams are going to help. The seams are a super small percentage of the diameter of the baseball. I don't see them creating much wind resistance.

To lower seams make it harder to pitch? Do pitchers need to grip the seams to throw certain pitches. Lower seams = less grip or rotational torque against the seams.

Exactly. Makes it harder to throw nasty breaking pitches. As C34 pointed out, it should figure to help out a power fastball pitcher.

[PassInterference]

Not notably over that distance.

The BBCOR bats only took away 24-28 feet depending on study. An extra 15-20 feet from these balls give a large part of that back. It's a simple interpolation between the two homer percentages to figure the approximate percentage of extra homeruns we'll be seeing from it... Numbers will put us close to what we saw post-99 thru 08. About 0.8hr/game...

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/baseball_RB/reports/TrendsYBY.pdf

Were we using those balls the 1st half of the season? Did it work?

[engie]

Were we using those balls the 1st half of the season? Did it work?

Do what?

As is, the only "mandate" for new balls is in the postseason next year. The NCAA opened the door to conferences to adopt it for game 1 next year -- which I'm sure the SEC will do...

Overall production will be similar to year 2 of the -3's, when the NCAA closed the loopholes allowing the manufacturers to add the weight to get to -3 at the base of the handle of the bat giving better bat speed to overcome the limitations...

[messageboardsuperhero]

I think we'll see a considerable difference in the amount of home runs with the new seams. The days of Gorilla Ball are gone forever, but this should at least bring some kind of a happy medium.

As far as pitching goes, my understanding is that the new ball won't break as much in a "looping" motion and will give a sharper/harder bite to the end of breaking pitches- this will make sliders and chaneups more important than looping curveballs. All this will put even more of a premium on power pitching. Another good thing this will do for pitchers is drastically reduce the risk of getting blisters, so that's a big plus as well.

I'm very interested to see how guys like Ross Mitchell will adjust. The new ball will make it tougher on guys like that, but I think Ross should be fine- he's proven time and again that he is an elite pitcher. If anyone can make the proper adjustments, it's Ross.

[Coach34]

But we didn't have "Gorilla Ball" in 2009 or 2010

[engie]

But we didn't have "Gorilla Ball" in 2009 or 2010

If you look at the overall numbers across college baseball -- we almost did in 2009...

I think it just never occurred for us because State sucked so badly at the time... And the "steroid age" of college baseball had already gone to the wayside...

[DudyDawg]

smaller seams- less resistance- should that also not help power pitchers throw harder?

I dont think the 15 extra feet the ball might travel will be enough to help HR production all that much

Just saw some guys on ESPNU mention that. Basically said it will make it harder to get great breaking ball movement but will help speed on the fastball which somewhat evens out the pitching aspect.

[Todd4State]

I have a college baseball and a MLB baseball at my house. The seams on the college baseball are noticeably higher. Very noticeably. If you throw a curveball or any ball where you push off the seams to get spin on it, it's going to help you out more than normal.

If you held the two in your hand you would see just how big of a difference it is.

[Todd4State]

I think we'll see a considerable difference in the amount of home runs with the new seams. The days of Gorilla Ball are gone forever, but this should at least bring some kind of a happy medium.

As far as pitching goes, my understanding is that the new ball won't break as much in a "looping" motion and will give a sharper/harder bite to the end of breaking pitches- this will make sliders and chaneups more important than looping curveballs. All this will put even more of a premium on power pitching. Another good thing this will do for pitchers is drastically reduce the risk of getting blisters, so that's a big plus as well.

I'm very interested to see how guys like Ross Mitchell will adjust. The new ball will make it tougher on guys like that, but I think Ross should be fine- he's proven time and again that he is an elite pitcher. If anyone can make the proper adjustments, it's Ross.

Ross actually throws a slider according to what he told me. What makes him tough to hit a home run off of him is he has a lot of movement which makes it tough to center the barrel on his pitches, but he also doesn't help the hitter out from a velocity standpoint.

[ShotgunDawg]

It's frustrating as **** to watch a guy the size of Grizzly Rea square up a ball, I mean absolutely murder it, and have it wind up dying 5 feet shy of the warning track. The pitchers have such a huge advantage now, it's ridiculous. I also agree that I don't see the new seams helping all that much.

That has more to do with Rea having slider bat speed. Honestly, if a high school can really hit, he will get drafted in the top 4 rounds and go pro.

[PassInterference]

Do what?

As is, the only "mandate" for new balls is in the postseason next year. The NCAA opened the door to conferences to adopt it for game 1 next year -- which I'm sure the SEC will do...

Overall production will be similar to year 2 of the -3's, when the NCAA closed the loopholes allowing the manufacturers to add the weight to get to -3 at the base of the handle of the bat giving better bat speed to overcome the limitations...

Ohhh...didn't realize that hadn't started.

Well that's dumb as shit. Hey, let's put in a new regulation but don't start it until the post season where nobody is ready for it and it can be a maximum grade **** up.

Sounds like TV money gave the NCAA an ultimatum.

[engie]

Ohhh...didn't realize that hadn't started.

Well that's dumb as shit. Hey, let's put in a new regulation but don't start it until the post season where nobody is ready for it and it can be a maximum grade **** up.

Sounds like TV money gave the NCAA an ultimatum.

I think it has more to do with easing into the new balls -- given that 99% of programs lose money on baseball period -- and baseballs, themselves, are one of their primary overall expenses to those programs. I forget how many dozen the average team goes through in a given year. By the time this mandate passed, most programs had already ordered them for the year -- and would require coming up with thousands of dollars to "replace" them.

So, the NCAA gave them an advance warning of the changing policy basically as a monetary issue...

[Todd4State]

I think it has more to do with easing into the new balls -- given that 99% of programs lose money on baseball period -- and baseballs, themselves, are one of their primary overall expenses to those programs. I forget how many dozen the average team goes through in a given year. By the time this mandate passed, most programs had already ordered them for the year -- and would require coming up with thousands of dollars to "replace" them.

So, the NCAA gave them an advance warning of the changing policy basically as a monetary issue...

That may be true, but there is also no doubt that ESPN wants to see some home runs in Omaha and in the SR's when they actually televise college baseball. So, hey! Let's all of a sudden change the ball!

[engie]

That may be true, but there is also no doubt that ESPN wants to see some home runs in Omaha and in the SR's when they actually televise college baseball. So, hey! Let's all of a sudden change the ball!

If that was purely the case, wouldn't they have changed them for this postseason?

Of course ESPN wants some degree of offense back in the game. Everybody does...

[Jack Lambert]

The question is are the injuries down. If not then the new bats were just horse shit.

[M.Fillmore]

Here is the conundrum that I don't know how can be addressed. Rosenblatt had the wind blowing out and combined with Gorilla Ball you saw a CWS final where USC won 21-14. Omaha then builds TD Ameritrade where the wind blows in, combined with the deadened bats we saw much fewer (like 2 or 3) home runs in the entire CWS last year. So with wind and bats, the CWS looks to be small ball from now forward.

Feel free to critique.

[smootness]

Here is the conundrum that I don't know how can be addressed. Rosenblatt had the wind blowing out and combined with Gorilla Ball you saw a CWS final where USC won 21-14. Omaha then builds TD Ameritrade where the wind blows in, combined with the deadened bats we saw much fewer (like 2 or 3) home runs in the entire CWS last year. So with wind and bats, the CWS looks to be small ball from now forward.

Feel free to critique.

I agree, the CWS was more about the orientation of that park and less about the bats. Changing the bats will help some, but I still don't see much going out there. They definitely screwed up with the way they built that park. Kris Bryant hit 30 HRs last year, you can still get it out; but Omaha played differently than just about every park in the country last year.

[engie]

I agree, the CWS was more about the orientation of that park and less about the bats. Changing the bats will help some, but I still don't see much going out there. They definitely screwed up with the way they built that park. Kris Bryant hit 30 HRs last year, you can still get it out; but Omaha played differently than just about every park in the country last year.

There would have been no fewer than 12-15 homeruns in Omaha last year with the new baseballs... Maybe more...

[State82]

There would have been no fewer than 12-15 homeruns in Omaha last year with the new baseballs... Maybe more...

I know one that would have gone that would have broken all our hearts.

[engie]

I know one that would have gone that would have broken all our hearts.

Only after we hit 2 bombs ourselves early in that game...

[State82]

Only after we hit 2 bombs ourselves early in that game...

Yeah I couldn't remember if we had hit any earlier that should have gone.

[engie]

Yeah I couldn't remember if we had hit any earlier that should have gone.

Yeah, there were a couple. I want to say our lead would have been one more run had they all gone out... But I definitely get your point...

I think the "big yard, play small ball" is an advantage for us. Cohen has built us to that. But it just isn't baseball when you can square one up perfectly, crush it, and it be a routine out at the track...

[starkvegasdawg]

Don't know if it is the bats, our lack of power, or both but I was able to go to a couple of the Vandy games and an Arkansas game and one thing I noticed were our hitters couldn't even get the ball to the wall on line drives. It would hit in the outfield and just stop after a couple more bounces. Even ones to the outfielders you could tell they didn't have the pop to roll to the wall. This is costing us doubles too and not just home runs because we can't split the gap and put one to the base of the wall.

[engie]

Don't know if it is the bats, our lack of power, or both but I was able to go to a couple of the Vandy games and an Arkansas game and one thing I noticed were our hitters couldn't even get the ball to the wall on line drives. It would hit in the outfield and just stop after a couple more bounces. Even ones to the outfielders you could tell they didn't have the pop to roll to the wall. This is costing us doubles too and not just home runs because we can't split the gap and put one to the base of the wall.

That's why there's a movement for a harder core on the baseballs as well with the seams... The overall effects are that they just die currently... It's damn near impossible to put one in the gap hard enough to get it to the wall...

[Dawg61]

Go to the MLB ball and MLB wood bats. So much money is involved from both the MLB teams and the Universities themselves currently and the way the bats are right now it is hurting their product. We have players getting drafted in the 1st round signing million dollar contracts and are about to build a what $60 million dollar stadium. The players are almost pro already. Time to let them play with pro bats and pro balls.

[KB21]

That has more to do with Rea having slider bat speed. Honestly, if a high school can really hit, he will get drafted in the top 4 rounds and go pro.

This.

It is also why you would previously see guys in the SEC hit for a lot of power in college and then never get above high A ball in the pros. Someone like Josh Morris from Georgia for example.

The key to power is generating bat speed. You put one of these BBCOR bats in Jason Heyward's hands, he's still going to launch some rockets over the walls because he generates tremendous bat speed. In the past, the trampoline effect of the bats helped guys who have slider bat speed hit more home runs than they would typically.

Personaly, I would love to see college go to wood bats.

[smootness]

There would have been no fewer than 12-15 homeruns in Omaha last year with the new baseballs... Maybe more...

I seriously doubt this.

[engie]

I seriously doubt this.

You seriously didn't watch the games then.

We would have had 5-6 ourselves.