Moreland v. Papelbon

[messageboardsuperhero]

Moreland just doubled off Papelbon over on ESPN 2.

Paps just isn't the same pitcher he was several years ago with Boston.

[ScoobaDawg]

JUST WOW.... 4 hits, 3 earned runs, Blown save and WALKED IN THE WINNING RUN.

I still root for Paps...but wow he is nowhere near the closer he was in his prime and as Red Sox fan im glad he is not running out at fenway anymore.

[War Machine Dawg]

That's what happens to a fastball closer when his fastball falls off and he can't adjust his pitching style. It really sucks for Paps. He needs to figure out a new pitching approach and develop a different pitch or two. Honestly, I'd make him a 7th or 8th inning setup man at this point.

[rcsteph1]

Mitch had the best bat of the night, had a triple the inning before. scored two of TX 4 runs.

[messageboardsuperhero]

That's what happens to a fastball closer when his fastball falls off and he can't adjust his pitching style. It really sucks for Paps. He needs to figure out a new pitching approach and develop a different pitch or two. Honestly, I'd make him a 7th or 8th inning setup man at this point.

Paps definitely needs to reinvent himself if he can't get 95 consistently anymore. From what I saw tonight, he was just trying to throw the ball as hard as he could and where it actually ended up was an afterthought- that may work when you throw 97, but not when you struggle to get 92. I think it would help him to take a little off his fastball to improve his location and add a good changeup or cutter to get lefties.

Papelbon will never be the dominant closer again, but he can still get guys out if he changes some things.

[Dawg61]

Paps has 286 saves and 41 blown saves good for an 87% success rate.

Mariano Rivera in that same timeframe had 273 saves (1 injured year) and 28 blown saves good for an 90% success rate.

Papelbon is one of the best closers in the last 30 years. Blown saves only became a stat in 2002.

[War Machine Dawg]

Paps definitely needs to reinvent himself if he can't get 95 consistently anymore. From what I saw tonight, he was just trying to throw the ball as hard as he could and where it actually ended up was an afterthought- that may work when you throw 97, but not when you struggle to get 92. I think it would help him to take a little off his fastball to improve his location and add a good changeup or cutter to get lefties.

Papelbon will never be the dominant closer again, but he can still get guys out if he changes some things.

A cut would definitely be a good pitch for him. It might let him remain a closer instead of staring down the barrel of being middle relief guy.

[esplanade91]

Paps has 286 saves and 41 blown saves good for an 87% success rate.

Mariano Rivera in that same timeframe had 273 saves (1 injured year) and 28 blown saves good for an 90% success rate.

Papelbon is one of the best closers in the last 30 years. Blown saves only became a stat in 2002.
Paps was bound to flame out. In Boston when he was dominating the East over 80% of his pitches were fastballs for the first 3 seasons. That dropped to around 60% his last 2 there, and it hasn't been more than 41% since arriving in Philly.

[Jacksondevildog]

The shelf life for a dominant closer isn't very long. Rivera was a different case. Papelbon hasn't been the same for last 2 or 3 seasons. He's still good, just not like he was in Boston.

[Dawg61]

The shelf life for a dominant closer isn't very long. Rivera was a different case. Papelbon hasn't been the same for last 2 or 3 seasons. He's still good, just not like he was in Boston.

I'm rooting for him. If he can get to 400 in saves he's got a good shot at the HOF. Not too many have more than that.

[jumbo]

literally a walk off

[Political Hack]

I said a few months ago id love to see him renegotiate his contract and come to Atlanta as a set up guy. He's not happy in Philly and that's going to make a huge difference in how he performs as well. If he went somewhere that he'd enjoy playing baseball again, it would make him a lot more effective IMO.

[Dawg61]

I said a few months ago id love to see him renegotiate his contract and come to Atlanta as a set up guy. He's not happy in Philly and that's going to make a huge difference in how he performs as well. If he went somewhere that he'd enjoy playing baseball again, it would make him a lot more effective IMO.

I'm convinced Kimbrel copied Papelbon's pre-pitch routine. Very similar.

[The Croom Diaries]

I'm convinced Kimbrel copied Papelbon's pre-pitch routine. Very similar.

I think Kimbrel copied Billy Wagner.

[C222]

I believe the Phillies still owe him 26 mill.

[smootness]

I don't know who Kimbrel copied, the only thing I do know is that whoever it was, he didn't do it right because he ended up much better.

Kimbrel's style does remind me a lot of Wagner, though. Regardless, he is the filthiest pitcher of all-time at this point. What he's doing has literally never been done before.

[dawgs]

I don't know who Kimbrel copied, the only thing I do know is that whoever it was, he didn't do it right because he ended up much better.

Kimbrel's style does remind me a lot of Wagner, though. Regardless, he is the filthiest pitcher of all-time at this point. What he's doing has literally never been done before.

first of all, he's the best RP in the game right now.

however, there's been plenty of guys that have been similar to him through their age 25 seasons and by 30 were pretty much done as dominant RPs. filthiest of all-time is a bit of an over statement.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_pitch.cgi?I=kimbrcr01:Craig%20Kimbrel&st=age&compage=25&age=25

[Dawg61]

I'd rather face Kimbrel than Aroldis Chapman when he's not eating baseballs.

[smootness]

There's never been anyone, for any extended period of time, who has dominated overall the way Kimbrel has. When you take his K rate , H rate, WHIP along with his ERA while also factoring in that rarely does anyone make solid contact off him, we've never seen any stretch quite like this.

Here's an article that explains what I'm talking about: http://www.talkingchop.com/2012/8/29/3276921/braves-craig-kimbrel-toughest-to-hit-ever

It was written before the end of the 2012 season but he finished that year with nearly identical numbers and then did pretty much the same thing again last year. It's from a Braves site, but the numbers speak for themselves. There are even better articles explaining it, but that's the first one that popped up on a search.

In short, there's never been any pitcher for this long of a stretch who has been so completely unhittable. Aroldis Chapman wishes he was Kimbrel.

[dawgs]

maybe there's a case for the filthiest RP ever, but you can't even begin to compare ratio numbers of a RP to a SP. it's a completely different game. therefore, it's impossible to make a realistic case for "filthiest ever". you don't think randy johnson or nolan ryan or pedro martinez or clemens would have put up ridiculous ratio numbers pitching 1 inning at a time 60 or so times a season?

[dawgs]

out of curiosity, i looked up the FIP for RPs on fangraphs for last season. kimbrel was 5th behind greg holland, uehara, melacon, farquhar, and rosenthal. and jansen was right behind him. and all of those guys except melacon have just as good, if not better, K and BB rates.

2012 was a ridiculous season for kimbrel, not disputing that.

in 2011, he led the league in FIP, but jansen, paps, david robertson, and sean marshall were all right there behind him, all of them except marshall with comparable or better K and BB rates.

[smootness]

maybe there's a case for the filthiest RP ever, but you can't even begin to compare ratio numbers of a RP to a SP. it's a completely different game. therefore, it's impossible to make a realistic case for "filthiest ever". you don't think randy johnson or nolan ryan or pedro martinez or clemens would have put up ridiculous ratio numbers pitching 1 inning at a time 60 or so times a season?

This is absolutely true. By no means am I saying that Kimbrel is better than any of those guys or that they couldn't do what Kimbrel is doing if they only pitched an inning at a time. I'm just saying that nobody has been this unhittable. Obviously he has that advantage; I'm not saying they wouldn't be just as unhittable as RP rather than SPs, just saying that there's never been anyone who came in and mowed people down to the level that Kimbrel does.

Pedro was the most unhittable SP of all time, when compared to the rest of the league, in 1999 and during his prime was pitching at a level that was just stupid.

In regard to your post about FIP, let me get home first. I really do want to look up the numbers from last year and compare them. I know Kimbrel's K rate dipped a little last year, but he was still completely filthy. Just from a 'who would you rather have?' perspective, I'm not taking any of those guys over Kimbrel. But I want to dig into the numbers more.

[jimbo352]

Paps has 286 saves and 41 blown saves good for an 87% success rate.

Mariano Rivera in that same timeframe had 273 saves (1 injured year) and 28 blown saves good for an 90% success rate.

Papelbon is one of the best closers in the last 30 years. Blown saves only became a stat in 2002.

As good as he was, he's not even the 2nd best of his time in the league... Joe Nathan was more dominant... In fact, there was a 4-5 year stretch in the mid 2000's when Nathan was as dominant as(if not more than) Rivera IMO. Nathan actually has a legit opportunity to reach 400 saves(has 350 I think) Had a chance to meet and spend some time with him at a charity event, and Nathan was a pretty good dude. It's tough to reach the HOF as a RP, especially playing in Rivera's shadow... If Nathan can put a few more years together like his last 3-4, he'll be in the discussion. Paps has a much longer road to get there, and he seems to be losing his stuff.

[War Machine Dawg]

Was talking about this with someone today, and we both reached the conclusion that a closer's "shelf life" as dominant is only about 3-4 seasons. They can still be good after that, but they aren't ever really the same, either. The only guys who've had extended periods of dominance were Rivera & Hoffman. Eckersley's run was 5 years. Smoltz's run was only 3 years, but he could've been dominant for much longer if he hadn't wanted to move back to the rotation. Billy Wagner had a pretty lengthy run, too. We'll see how long Kimbrel's run lasts, but this is his 4th season, meaning he could go either way.

[dawgs]

Was talking about this with someone today, and we both reached the conclusion that a closer's "shelf life" as dominant is only about 3-4 seasons. They can still be good after that, but they aren't ever really the same, either. The only guys who've had extended periods of dominance were Rivera & Hoffman. Eckersley's run was 5 years. Smoltz's run was only 3 years, but he could've been dominant for much longer if he hadn't wanted to move back to the rotation. Billy Wagner had a pretty lengthy run, too. We'll see how long Kimbrel's run lasts, but this is his 4th season, meaning he could go either way.

the amazing thing about hoffman is that he was dominant for that long and didn't throw but about 85, even in his prime.

and rivera get hit around 93-94 in his prime, but his money maker was the cutter, not a power fastball.

so many RPs come in and can blow hitters away with 95+ heat for an inning, but after 4 or 5 years of that, most of them are going to start losing some steam. kimbrel might be an exception. i think the braves deal with him is pretty solid though, and even if he falls off, he should still be able to be a top tier closer for the life of his deal. and only $42M over 4 years isn't breaking the bank.

[War Machine Dawg]

the amazing thing about hoffman is that he was dominant for that long and didn't throw but about 85, even in his prime.

and rivera get hit around 93-94 in his prime, but his money maker was the cutter, not a power fastball.

so many RPs come in and can blow hitters away with 95+ heat for an inning, but after 4 or 5 years of that, most of them are going to start losing some steam. kimbrel might be an exception. i think the braves deal with him is pretty solid though, and even if he falls off, he should still be able to be a top tier closer for the life of his deal. and only $42M over 4 years isn't breaking the bank.

The thing with Hoffman is he had that filthy change-up that was his out pitch. As you point out, he was never really a power closer in terms of his velo. Also agree about Mo using the cutter, but he was also mid-90s with it, as you pointed out.

Totally agree about the power fastball closers losing steam after 3-4 seasons. I also like Kimbrel's contract. It's sufficiently big to reward him for what he's done so far, but it doesn't break the bank and become an albatross if he falls off some, either. Although it looks like his fastball may already be a little bit down early this season. He was only hitting 96 on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, and we've seen him run it up as high as 98-100 previously. Of course, it's early and he may not have been giving it everything yet. Plus, 96 isn't exactly slow for a closer, as opposed to 92-93. And his out pitch is that nasty slider, not his fastball. That's a pitch that'll let him last longer than the typical power fastball closer.