OT: Thursday Severe Weather (Need a Ref's Opinion)

[starkvegasdawg]

For those of use that live in and near MS, tomorrow afternoon and night is going to be our introduction to the spring severe weather season. I'm not a forecaster so I won't go into any of that, but the Storm Prediction Center now has parts of MS, most of Arkansas, north LA, and south central MO under a moderate risk of severe weather. Assuming this is the start of probably 6 weeks or so of severe weather I highly recommend that everybody buy a NOAA weather radio with SAME technology to alert you to warnings in your area. You can buy a handheld version for under $50. Best peace of mind you can buy and it can save your life.

Ref, hoping you don't mind providing the forecasting details to this event. I'm now sitting at about a 99.5% certainty I will be out chasing so I was wondering if anything had changed since last night. I took a look at the model information with my somewhat untrained eye this morning and I am still of the opinion that the best chase opportunity for chasing storms in the daylight is going to be eastern Arkansas. Looks like a belt from El Dorado to West Memphis is going to have the best CAPE, LI, EHI, low level bulk shear, and surface winds. Just wanted your take on things too since there is no easy way to jump back into MS with that pesky little river in the way.

Last selfish question - I know this isn't looking like a major outbreak (ala 4/27/11) but how do you see the tornado potential tomorrow? I noticed that Forbes still has his TORCON value between 4 and 5 which I thought was a little low. Are there still some key ingredients missing or is he just playing it safe until the very end before raising it to a 6 or 7?

[codeDawg]

My flight back into MEM Thur night should be "exciting."

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

I can't remember where I saw it, but someone was saying that the Gulf of Mexico was still not up to temperature and this would lead to a lack of moisture to produce heavy storms. They also said that we're more likely to have a drought instead of severe weather because of this cooling in the gulf. Does that sound correct to the weather gurus?

[ScoobaDawg]

I'll let the Ref chime in. But I know Here in Texas. The extended winter has indeed kept the Gulf temperatures down and is making for a calm spring.
So yes there is a relationship to severe weather and the Gulf temperatures.

[starkvegasdawg]

I remember reading something about this too. They were also theorizing that the severe season may not necessarily be diminished but delayed until the Gulf has a chance to heat back up. So instead of our normal severe weather season here in MS running from mid-March to early May it may run from early April to mid or late May.

[SignalToNoise]

OK, Ref, know you're getting a lot of requests but I have a flight into New Orleans Thursday night. What's the forecast for that area?

[TheRef]

OK, Ref, know you're getting a lot of requests but I have a flight into New Orleans Thursday night. What's the forecast for that area?

I'm writing a post right now discussion what everything is saying for this system and what my prediction will be on the affected areas and the possible implications. I'll say this right now, Starkville is not in a high tornado-risk area. You can't rule out an isolated tornado or two. But, I won't say that we are in an imminent threat for tornadoes here in Starkville. But I'll explain this in detail with a post. Standby.

[TheRef]

Okay...Here (http://norwoodwx.tumblr.com/post/81494778954/severe-weather-threat-march-3-2014) is my blog post that is my discussion using multiple models to get a more complete view of what will happen. I don't think your main threat is going to be tornadoes and I certainly don't think this will be an outbreak as some people are saying. Your main threats with this system will be winds and hail. Am I completely ruling out tornadoes? Most certainly not. If there is a "hotspot" for tornado activity with this system it will be in Western AR and MO which aren't exactly the safest chasing conditions with what is referred to as the "Jungle" by most chasers. So I wouldn't recommend chasing this system due to the environment of the atmosphere and the chasing conditions as far as view and roads.

[slickdawg]

Okay...Here (http://norwoodwx.tumblr.com/post/81494778954/severe-weather-threat-march-3-2014) is my blog post that is my discussion using multiple models to get a more complete view of what will happen. I don't think your main threat is going to be tornadoes and I certainly don't think this will be an outbreak as some people are saying. Your main threats with this system will be winds and hail. Am I completely ruling out tornadoes? Most certainly not. If there is a "hotspot" for tornado activity with this system it will be in Western AR and MO which aren't exactly the safest chasing conditions with what is referred to as the "Jungle" by most chasers. So I wouldn't recommend chasing this system due to the environment of the atmosphere and the chasing conditions as far as view and roads.

Bravo on the blog writeup - excellent.

F**k the cap, I'm sick and f**king tired of the g** d*** cap. Eight years in Texas, seven of them drought, largely due to the f**king cap. 2008 was the only year it rained appreciably out here.

[ScoobaDawg]

Bravo on the blog writeup - excellent.

F**k the cap, I'm sick and f**king tired of the g** d*** cap. Eight years in Texas, seven of them drought, largely due to the f**king cap. 2008 was the only year it rained appreciably out here.

I agree, Damn dry air of mexico should stay down there!!!
Well for the most part. It's saved our butts a bunch from some nasty storms.

El Nino on the way so hopefully better chances for rain this summer.

Good article if any weather nerds are interested in what me and slick are talking about and why the storms seem to miss DFW and pop up east
and also explains why hen I moved here I was told slow steady rains arent the norm, Big fast moving heavy showers (cap-busters) are.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/070/index.html

[BrunswickDawg]

Okay...Here (http://norwoodwx.tumblr.com/post/81494778954/severe-weather-threat-march-3-2014) is my blog post that is my discussion using multiple models to get a more complete view of what will happen. I don't think your main threat is going to be tornadoes and I certainly don't think this will be an outbreak as some people are saying. Your main threats with this system will be winds and hail. Am I completely ruling out tornadoes? Most certainly not. If there is a "hotspot" for tornado activity with this system it will be in Western AR and MO which aren't exactly the safest chasing conditions with what is referred to as the "Jungle" by most chasers. So I wouldn't recommend chasing this system due to the environment of the atmosphere and the chasing conditions as far as view and roads.

So in layman's terms, I guess my drive Friday from Coastal GA to Baton Rouge will be interesting....

[TheRef]

So in layman's terms, I guess my drive Friday from Coastal GA to Baton Rouge will be interesting....

Friday might not be AS bad a Thursday, but you will hit some stuff.