Ok Baseball RPI gurus help me...

[ScottH]

We sit at 46 RPI per Warren Nolan with a 20-10 record

Still have SEC series against teams with worse RPI's - Auburn, Tam, Mizzou

Still have SEC series against teams with better RPI's - UM, LSU, Bama, Tenn

OOC vs - USM, UM, Alcorn, Jville State

What do we have to do to make the tourney?

What to we have to do to host?

Do you cancel the Alcorn game? 294 RPI

How in the hell is the Rebels RPI so much better? Is it the Holy Cross games?

[Coach34]

Us playing HC and OM playing South Carolina makes a huge difference in RPI

The SOS overall in the SEC will get us there- we just have to keep winning.

[Dawg61]

I'm guessing those RPI #'s are a week off. Tenn ahead of us? Let's see what the numbers are on Friday.

[Political Hack]

I would cancel the Alcorn game.

[mic]

18-12 gives us a regional.
20-10 prob wins SEC outright and should result in super regional host..

[bulldogcountry1]

Not a guru, but I think Arizona is the biggest reason right now for us being low. I think people are putting too much weight on Holy Cross. Arizona went into the weekend over 200. They got a win against Oregon State, so that helped us. They should wind up with a decent SOS, so that won't hurt as much in the end.

If we win enough games to deserve to host, then the RPI will take care of itself. That said, I wouldn't be upset about canceling Alcorn, unless we take the series from LSU.

[messageboardsuperhero]

What do we have to do to make the tourney?

I don't really know. Maybe 13 SEC wins or so? I wouldn't be concerned about that at all.


What to we have to do to host?

Personally, I think we have to get at least 18 SEC wins and go 3-1 in non-conference from here on in (assuming the one loss is in one of the games in Pearl). I hate that we lost all those games early- I think we'll still end up hosting, but we've made it a little trickier than it should have been.


Do you cancel the Alcorn game? 294 RPI

I wouldn't shed a tear if we never played them again. Politics be damned- it doesn't help us at all to play them.


How in the hell is the Rebels RPI so much better? Is it the Holy Cross games?

A few reasons:

1. They've played the #1 and #18 teams in the country three times each on the road, which has bolstered their RPI/SOS a lot (even though they are 1-5 in those games).
2. Yep, Holy Cross is hurting us as expected. Also, Arizona being shitty is doing us no favors either. I think they'll end up jumping a good bit, if for no other reason than they play in the Pac-12, and that will help our RPI eventually.
3. UM has won pretty much all their games against inferior competition, while we didn't take care of business early in the year.

We've still got ground to make up to host, but we're still very much in control of our own destiny.

[curmudgeon]

I'm a guru. We'll be alright. Playing four games against Ole Miss and splitting will bump us 25 spots. Win 3 and that series alone gets us in the Top 20.

Winning 2 of 3 this weekend is worth 12 spots in my analysis.

We need to bring a team like Dallas Baptist in for a midweek. A loss to them helps us more than a win over Alcorn. Hell, I may be banned for this, but Central Arkansas is sitting out there with a Top 100 RPI.

[Dawg61]

Canceling a game because it hurts our RPI is a bitch move. Don't schedule it if we don't want to play it.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Also, don't mistake RPI as some "magical formula" that you have to do something special to crack- it's just a mathematical way to calculate who the best teams are. 95% of the time, it mostly ends up agreeing with the baseball writers polls at the end of the year. If we are one of the best 16 teams in the country come May, we will probably end up hosting.

We just need to keep playing like we have been, and everything will take care of itself.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Canceling a game because it hurts our RPI is a bitch move. Don't schedule it if we don't want to play it.

Okay, then we need to stop scheduling them in the first place. I'd be down with that.

[Dawg61]

Okay, then we need to stop scheduling them in the first place. I'd be down with that.

Totally agree that teams +200 don't need to be scheduled. Once scheduled honor the schedule though.

[Political Hack]

I'm a guru. We'll be alright. Playing four games against Ole Miss and splitting will bump us 25 spots. Win 3 and that series alone gets us in the Top 20.

Winning 2 of 3 this weekend is worth 12 spots in my analysis.

We need to bring a team like Dallas Baptist in for a midweek. A loss to them helps us more than a win over Alcorn. Hell, I may be banned for this, but Central Arkansas is sitting out there with a Top 100 RPI.

I vote we force curmudgeon to give us a weekly RPI update on the scenarios!! Seriously, that would be nice.

[Todd4State]

Here's the bottom line: We need to win as many SEC games as possible. If we win 18 SEC games and don't lose to Alcorn, we have a very legit shot at hosting regardless of Holy Cross, Arizona, or anyone else. Every single SEC game from here on out is important. At this point as far as OOC goes- the Governor's Cup would help us out a lot as well. Jacksonville State and USM would be nice, but I don't think either would kill us if we lost them. We must beat Alcorn.

But if we get over 18 SEC wins, we will probably host. If we get really hot and get around 20-22 SEC wins, we have a shot at a National Seed.

[Todd4State]

I'm a guru. We'll be alright. Playing four games against Ole Miss and splitting will bump us 25 spots. Win 3 and that series alone gets us in the Top 20.

Winning 2 of 3 this weekend is worth 12 spots in my analysis.

We need to bring a team like Dallas Baptist in for a midweek. A loss to them helps us more than a win over Alcorn. Hell, I may be banned for this, but Central Arkansas is sitting out there with a Top 100 RPI.

BAN HIM!!!!*******

As long as Central Arkansas doesn't have that annoying guy whistling after anything that happens, I don't have a problem with playing them.

[Todd4State]

Totally agree that teams +200 don't need to be scheduled. Once scheduled honor the schedule though.

If we didn't play them, I'm pretty sure that Alcorn would probably get more money from us as compensation for breaking the contract not to mention the cost of money saved from not having to travel, etc.

So, they wouldn't be getting totally screwed.

This year we are playing the fewest SWAC teams of any year that I can remember. It kind of makes you wonder if we are going to totally do away with them altogether. Polk liked to play them because they were in state teams and he wanted to promote baseball in Mississippi, which was a good thing. But playing them now doesn't do us very much good.

[MetEdDawg]

If we didn't play them, I'm pretty sure that Alcorn would probably get more money from us as compensation for breaking the contract not to mention the cost of money saved from not having to travel, etc.

So, they wouldn't be getting totally screwed.

This year we are playing the fewest SWAC teams of any year that I can remember. It kind of makes you wonder if we are going to totally do away with them altogether. Polk liked to play them because they were in state teams and he wanted to promote baseball in Mississippi, which was a good thing. But playing them now doesn't do us very much good.

We do the same in football, except it helps us there because we need wins. We aren't fighting for national spots there, but we are in baseball. Got to stop playing them because in the end it does hurt the RPI and we are in a position now where we should be doing everything we can to bolster our resume so we look good enough to either host or get a top 8 spot.

[Todd4State]

We do the same in football, except it helps us there because we need wins. We aren't fighting for national spots there, but we are in baseball. Got to stop playing them because in the end it does hurt the RPI and we are in a position now where we should be doing everything we can to bolster our resume so we look good enough to either host or get a top 8 spot.

Exactly. Plus back when Polk was playing all the SWAC schools, you could do that and also play Belhaven, Mississippi College, William Carey and whomever else, and we could still host because we were drawing big crowds and that was a factor then. The baseball tournament is selected much differently now and games against SWAC teams don't help us and actually hurt us.

But with football, we just need 6 wins to be bowl eligible, 8 wins to have a chance at a NYD bowl game. Plus for us it's cheaper to play a SWAC school from in state than it is to play someone like Montana State. And the in-state SWAC schools get money that helps them immensely and it's a goodwill gesture by MSU. So, we both benefit from playing JSU, Alcorn, and probably Valley when they get things straightened out.

[chef dixon]

If its anything like basketball RPI, then its a joke. Get your ass beat, but play teams that a mathematically calculated system thinks are good then you'll be alright.

[MetEdDawg]

If its anything like basketball RPI, then its a joke. Get your ass beat, but play teams that a mathematically calculated system thinks are good then you'll be alright.

Not quite. Why not schedule Memphis for 2 or 3 mid weeks? They are always pretty good and I would bet they would do it. One in Starkville and one at their place. I'm pretty sure we've done it before too, so why not replace Alcorn with a team like Memphis? Why not schedule 2 with USM? I think we could do that and that would solve our mid week problem easily because Jacksonville State and Alcorn State will be RPI killers.

Alcorn has an RPI of 295. That's terrible and there's ZERO to gain by playing them. UAB and Troy would be much better options because they typically have decent baseball. Or how about Alabama State? There are plenty of other options that are close to us that are better options. MTSU is another option, Tennessee Tech has been very good recently, USA has good baseball. There are plenty of options that will get us a better quality opponent that we can actually gain something from playing. Being loyal to in state programs and taking an RPI hit AND potentially doing something stupid and losing to a team like Alcorn like we almost did last year doesn't make a ton of sense for where we are at right now as a program.

[ScoobaDawg]

Boyds World is your friend... 50th rpi currently
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

Chew on this...
RPI Needs report (way tooo early edition)

Mississippi State

Remaining: 11 home, 12 road, 2 neutral
Current RPI: 50
ROWP: 0.616


Top 16:

6 home wins, 12 road wins, 2 neutral wins
7 home wins, 11 road wins, 2 neutral wins
7 home wins, 12 road wins, 1 neutral wins
8 home wins, 9 road wins, 2 neutral wins
8 home wins, 10 road wins, 2 neutral wins
8 home wins, 11 road wins, 1 neutral wins
8 home wins, 12 road wins, 0 neutral wins
9 home wins, 8 road wins, 2 neutral wins
9 home wins, 9 road wins, 1 neutral wins
9 home wins, 10 road wins, 0 neutral wins
9 home wins, 11 road wins, 0 neutral wins
9 home wins, 12 road wins, 0 neutral wins
10 home wins, 7 road wins, 2 neutral wins
10 home wins, 8 road wins, 1 neutral wins
10 home wins, 9 road wins, 0 neutral wins
10 home wins, 10 road wins, 0 neutral wins
10 home wins, 11 road wins, 0 neutral wins
10 home wins, 12 road wins, 0 neutral wins
11 home wins, 6 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 7 road wins, 1 neutral wins
11 home wins, 8 road wins, 0 neutral wins
11 home wins, 9 road wins, 0 neutral wins
11 home wins, 10 road wins, 0 neutral wins
11 home wins, 11 road wins, 0 neutral wins
11 home wins, 12 road wins, 0 neutral wins

Top 8:

10 home wins, 12 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 10 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 11 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 12 road wins, 1 neutral wins

[blacklistedbully]

Not a guru, but I think Arizona is the biggest reason right now for us being low. I think people are putting too much weight on Holy Cross. Arizona went into the weekend over 200. They got a win against Oregon State, so that helped us. They should wind up with a decent SOS, so that won't hurt as much in the end.

If we win enough games to deserve to host, then the RPI will take care of itself. That said, I wouldn't be upset about canceling Alcorn, unless we take the series from LSU.

Disagree. Holy Cross isn't that much higher in RPI, and we lost 2 to them and at home! Losses at home hurt RPI more than losses away. We had 2 versus HC.

[Todd4State]

Not quite. Why not schedule Memphis for 2 or 3 mid weeks? They are always pretty good and I would bet they would do it. One in Starkville and one at their place. I'm pretty sure we've done it before too, so why not replace Alcorn with a team like Memphis? Why not schedule 2 with USM? I think we could do that and that would solve our mid week problem easily because Jacksonville State and Alcorn State will be RPI killers.

Alcorn has an RPI of 295. That's terrible and there's ZERO to gain by playing them. UAB and Troy would be much better options because they typically have decent baseball. Or how about Alabama State? There are plenty of other options that are close to us that are better options. MTSU is another option, Tennessee Tech has been very good recently, USA has good baseball. There are plenty of options that will get us a better quality opponent that we can actually gain something from playing. Being loyal to in state programs and taking an RPI hit AND potentially doing something stupid and losing to a team like Alcorn like we almost did last year doesn't make a ton of sense for where we are at right now as a program.

This is total speculation on my part- but when the new stadium in Biloxi is built we could very well play USM twice- once there and once in Jackson. Certainly could potentially play South Alabama there as well. I would like to do a mid-week game against LSU in Biloxi, but I doubt they will do it because that isn't LSU's M.O. in baseball.

Home and home vs. Memphis would be good. I went to the game last year at Autozone and it was a good time.

Tulane would be good- their coach might still be pissed at Cohen over Jarrod Parks though. We might play them in that tournament in NOLA in a couple of years, although they haven't been confirmed yet. But if he can bury the hatchet, they would be good to play OOC. It would be a pretty neat weekend OOC series for a road trip because they have a fairly new stadium in the Garden District. Tulane is typically a very strong team from a good baseball conference.

A lot of this is just me talking about scenarios- but without a doubt we will play some games in Biloxi in the future. And when that happens, that means someone is getting cut out of the schedule- and the Alcorn's make the most sense to cut out.

[blacklistedbully]

[QUOTE=ScoobaDawg;157251]Boyds World is your friend... 50th rpi currently
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

Chew on this...
RPI Needs report (way tooo early edition)

Mississippi State

Remaining: 11 home, 12 road, 2 neutral
Current RPI: 50
ROWP: 0.616 [QUOTE]



Top 8:

10 home wins, 12 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 10 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 12 road wins, 1 neutral wins
or better

FIFY
We would have to fall apart to not get a regional. We're gunning for a national seed.

[Todd4State]

Disagree. Holy Cross isn't that much higher in RPI, and we lost 2 to them and at home! Losses at home hurt RPI more than losses away. We had 2 versus HC.

We also beat them twice though. As long as Holy Cross stays above 200, it's essentially about the same as losing to Mizzou at this point from an RPI perspective. And the committee does take the last 10 games into account as well. Much better to lose to Holy Cross in February than April.

[blacklistedbully]

We also beat them twice though. As long as Holy Cross stays above 200, it's essentially about the same as losing to Mizzou at this point from an RPI perspective. And the committee does take the last 10 games into account as well. Much better to lose to Holy Cross in February than April.


Yes, we beat them 2, but winning at home is not as good as winning on the road. Our loss and win over AZ may well already be better than our 2-2 at home vs HC. We got a greater multiplier for the away win and a lower multiplier for the loss. Conversely, we got hit hard for the 2 HC losses, but didn't get as good a multiplier for the wins.

[Todd4State]

Yes, we beat them 2, but winning at home is not as good as winning on the road. Our loss and win over AZ may well already be better than our 2-2 at home vs HC. We got a greater multiplier for the away win and a lower multiplier for the loss. Conversely, we got hit hard for the 2 HC losses, but didn't get as good a multiplier for the wins.

It's probably essentially about the same now that Arizona has gotten their RPI up above 200 because we split with Arizona on the road.

Regardless, it's not worth worrying about because if we take care of our business in SEC play, we will be where we want to be.

[ScoobaDawg]

[QUOTE=ScoobaDawg;157251]Boyds World is your friend... 50th rpi currently
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

Chew on this...
RPI Needs report (way tooo early edition)

Mississippi State

Remaining: 11 home, 12 road, 2 neutral
Current RPI: 50
ROWP: 0.616 [QUOTE]



Top 8:

10 home wins, 12 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 10 road wins, 2 neutral wins
11 home wins, 12 road wins, 1 neutral wins
or better

FIFY
We would have to fall apart to not get a regional. We're gunning for a national seed.

whopops thanks...somehow it pulled Missouri. fixed.

[Martianlander]

I may be corrected on this but I don't think baseball RPI takes in consideration as much who you play as home and away, and win-lose. My understanding is home win +.7. Road win +1.3. Home loss -1.3. Road loss -.7.
May not be the same in all the rating systems.
Some of you may have more insight on this.
Also neutral sight +1 win. -1 loss.

[engie]

I may be corrected on this but I don't think baseball RPI takes in consideration as much who you play as home and away, and win-lose. My understanding is home win +.7. Road win +1.3. Home loss -1.3. Road loss -.7.
May not be the same in all the rating systems.
Some of you may have more insight on this.
Also neutral sight +1 win. -1 loss.

This is correct.

We went 1.4-2.6 against Holy Cross.
We went 1.3-0.7 against Arizona -- and 1.3-2-1 for that whole weekend.

The 2 losses to Holy Cross are about 4x worse than the loss to Arizona in the win percentage column of RPI, and 3/4 as bad from a SOS perspective...

[curmudgeon]

So let's find this in our schedule:

11 home wins, 10 road wins, 2 neutral wins

We only have 11 home games left. Going to be tough to win them all.
We have 12 road games left. Going to be tough to go 10-2
We have 2 neutral games left. Could win both of them.

Top 8 RPI is going to be tough. Top 16 RPI is doable.

[blacklistedbully]

This is total speculation on my part- but when the new stadium in Biloxi is built we could very well play USM twice- once there and once in Jackson. Certainly could potentially play South Alabama there as well. I would like to do a mid-week game against LSU in Biloxi, but I doubt they will do it because that isn't LSU's M.O. in baseball.

Home and home vs. Memphis would be good. I went to the game last year at Autozone and it was a good time.

Tulane would be good- their coach might still be pissed at Cohen over Jarrod Parks though. We might play them in that tournament in NOLA in a couple of years, although they haven't been confirmed yet. But if he can bury the hatchet, they would be good to play OOC. It would be a pretty neat weekend OOC series for a road trip because they have a fairly new stadium in the Garden District. Tulane is typically a very strong team from a good baseball conference.

A lot of this is just me talking about scenarios- but without a doubt we will play some games in Biloxi in the future. And when that happens, that means someone is getting cut out of the schedule- and the Alcorn's make the most sense to cut out.

That would be good for our recruiting efforts as well.

[blacklistedbully]

So let's find this in our schedule:

11 home wins, 10 road wins, 2 neutral wins

We only have 11 home games left. Going to be tough to win them all.
We have 12 road games left. Going to be tough to go 10-2
We have 2 neutral games left. Could win both of them.

Top 8 RPI is going to be tough. Top 16 RPI is doable.

I don't think that's going to be necessary to get a national seed. Those RPI needs reports are highly subjective and RPI is not the only factor. Besides, our RPI will improve dramatically soon. Seems to me, a little over a week ago, Boyd's world had us listed as not even being capable of reaching top 8.

[engie]

So let's find this in our schedule:

11 home wins, 10 road wins, 2 neutral wins

We only have 11 home games left. Going to be tough to win them all.
We have 12 road games left. Going to be tough to go 10-2
We have 2 neutral games left. Could win both of them.

Top 8 RPI is going to be tough. Top 16 RPI is doable.

Still not time to trust the "needs report". All the teams at the top are still going to regress -- and Boyd does it by "snapshots" instead of expected regression. So, the "needs" required for top 8 this week will not be the same as "needs" required for top 8 next week.

There have been several points earlier in the year that we were "eliminated" from top 8 contention.

Current RPI: .5576(#44)
Current RPI w/l: 15.8-11.2
Current RPI WP: .585185
Current RPI WP Effect: .1951

2 of 3 in Baton Rouge:
Updated RPI w/l: 18.4-11.9
Updated RPI WP: .607261
Updated RPI WP Effect: .20242

Difference in WP Effect: .0073

New RPI(sans SOS effect): .5649(#35)

Of course, this method neglects the SOS aspect altogether -- and obviously playing LSU on the road > little sisters of the poor on the road. Reality is that we could easily be inside the top 30 if we manage to take 2 of 3 this weekend. At which point, we're in striking distance of where we need to be.

A .5649, although only good enough for 35th as of today, would have been good for 25th overall last year. Obviously, regression is still going to happen...