Dick Cross has a man crush on Warren Nolan now

[M.Fillmore]

In general, like the WarrenNolan site, but this is goofy.

Dogs and Bears are each 4-2 in SEC with now but WN predicts the bears to be 22-9 in the SEC at year end with an RPI of 10 and the Dogs to be 16-15 with an RPI of 108 at year end.

Ain't no way.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/predictedstandings

[Coach34]

We'll get to hear Cross backtrack after Super Bulldog Weekend

[Todd4State]

If we take care of our business, we will be fine.

[Quaoarsking]

As I understand it, those aren't really "predictions," they're just what the standings and RPIs will look like if the better team wins every game from here on out, with some adjustment for homefield advantage thrown in, and changing sweeps to 2-1 series wins if the RPIs are close enough.

If we end up 16-15 in the conference (because those numbers totally add up to 30...), we'll have an RPI much better than 108. Probably somewhere around 30. In 2010, when we were a godawful 6-24 in the conference and lost to Jackson State, our RPI was 71 (citation (http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2010MBArpi1.html)).

[engie]

As I understand it, those aren't really "predictions," they're just what the standings and RPIs will look like if the better team wins every game from here on out, with some adjustment for homefield advantage thrown in, and changing sweeps to 2-1 series wins if the RPIs are close enough.

If we end up 16-15 in the conference (because those numbers totally add up to 30...), we'll have an RPI much better than 108. Probably somewhere around 30. In 2010, when we were a godawful 6-24 in the conference and lost to Jackson State, our RPI was 71 (citation (http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2010MBArpi1.html)).

Exactly...

Those numbers are totally useless right now...

[Todd4State]

As I understand it, those aren't really "predictions," they're just what the standings and RPIs will look like if the better team wins every game from here on out, with some adjustment for homefield advantage thrown in, and changing sweeps to 2-1 series wins if the RPIs are close enough.

If we end up 16-15 in the conference (because those numbers totally add up to 30...), we'll have an RPI much better than 108. Probably somewhere around 30. In 2010, when we were a godawful 6-24 in the conference and lost to Jackson State, our RPI was 71 (citation (http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2010MBArpi1.html)).

It's the secret 31st game.

[messageboardsuperhero]

While I do like the RPI system, those predictions don't mean jack shit- especially in ****ing March, two weeks into conference play. That same predictor says that Brown (yes, the same Brown from the Ivy League) will finish with an RPI of 11.

If we finish with an RPI of 108, I will streak naked through the Cotton District.

[messageboardsuperhero]

As I understand it, those aren't really "predictions," they're just what the standings and RPIs will look like if the better team wins every game from here on out, with some adjustment for homefield advantage thrown in, and changing sweeps to 2-1 series wins if the RPIs are close enough.

If we end up 16-15 in the conference (because those numbers totally add up to 30...), we'll have an RPI much better than 108. Probably somewhere around 30. In 2010, when we were a godawful 6-24 in the conference and lost to Jackson State, our RPI was 71 (citation (http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2010MBArpi1.html)).

That's exactly what the RPI predictions do, and why they are next to meaningless. Good post.

[M.Fillmore]

Exactly...

Those numbers are totally useless right now...

Like I said, this is goofy. But you know Dick Cross loves it.

[engie]

In general, small conferences start out with their highest RPI in the non-con because they play major schools that will help them throughout the year. SEC schools generally do the opposite -- and their RPIs improve throughout the year.

Arkansas, who was one of the top non-hosts last year, had an RPI of 131 at this time last year before sweeping South Carolina on the road to jump to 54. We need to hold serve at home, but the LSU series is absolutely huge for us. If we can take 2 in Baton Rouge, we're inside the top 30 in RPI, and we're right where we need to be...

[MarketingBully01]

That series will come down to the Sunday game. I think they win the Nola match up on Friday, we will win the Mitchell match up on Saturday. I think Fitts is a better Sunday starter then they have so we hopefully will win the series.

[Todd4State]

That series will come down to the Sunday game. I think they win the Nola match up on Friday, we will win the Mitchell match up on Saturday. I think Fitts is a better Sunday starter then they have so we hopefully will win the series.


Yeah but our team seems to tear up guys that are first round picks and then make mid major garbage ball pitchers with an ERA of 6 look like Clayton Kershaw.

[Saltydog]

NT

[BeastMan]

I bet y'all Warran Nolan doesn't know the Gov cup doesn't count toward SEC standings. That's probably where he's getting 31 SEC games for both of us. That said, that game still holds importance for RPI and team moral and such.

ETA- he just said on twitter that he changed MSU and OM's gov cup game and cleaned up some other things.

[curmudgeon]

Defending my friend Warren for a second.

His algorithm is the best in the business. Dude is really smart. Those numbers will adjust and are meaningless at this point in the season. Going into the final four weekends, they are worth looking at.

The 31st game is the Trustmark game against Ole Miss. Just no way to distinguish in the computer model that game is a non-conference game until its played.

He's an Oklahoma State fan, FWIW.

[MarketingBully01]

Yeah but our team seems to tear up guys that are first round picks and then make mid major garbage ball pitchers with an ERA of 6 look like Clayton Kershaw.

Haha, good point!

[bgdog]

In general, like the WarrenNolan site, but this is goofy.

Dogs and Bears are each 4-2 in SEC with now but WN predicts the bears to be 22-9 in the SEC at year end with an RPI of 10 and the Dogs to be 16-15 with an RPI of 108 at year end.

Ain't no way.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/predictedstandings

What did he say?