Ref we need weather update

[I seen it dawg]

Nm

[TheRef]

Nm

As far as forecast for today/tonight?

[TheRef]

Quick update: Rain is going to be a worry for us as I don't expect us to be done until 10:30/11:00 tonight. GFS is a LOT quicker than the NAM. However, everything I'm seeing is that the GFS is still too quick even with a +NAO and -SOI. If this is the case, then we may have a dry game. If the GFS verifies, however, then we may have a wet time before the game (3-6) then a wet ending (Midnight-3). So we are going to be pushing it if the GFS verifies. But if the NAM verifies, the only game we would have to worry about is tomorrow's, which is entirely possible that won't be delayed at all. Temps will remain in the 60s with it starting at around 66 and dropping to around 60 by the end of the game. Winds will be out of the North still at 5-10 mph. Enjoy the game, fellas.

[I seen it dawg]

You the man

[CadaverDawg]

Quick update: Rain is going to be a worry for us as I don't expect us to be done until 10:30/11:00 tonight. GFS is a LOT quicker than the NAM. However, everything I'm seeing is that the GFS is still too quick even with a +NAO and -SOI. If this is the case, then we may have a dry game. If the GFS verifies, however, then we may have a wet time before the game (3-6) then a wet ending (Midnight-3). So we are going to be pushing it if the GFS verifies. But if the NAM verifies, the only game we would have to worry about is tomorrow's, which is entirely possible that won't be delayed at all. Temps will remain in the 60s with it starting at around 66 and dropping to around 60 by the end of the game. Winds will be out of the North still at 5-10 mph. Enjoy the game, fellas.

So you're saying it may rain, but it may not?

You're a good dude, ref, and you only have the models available to you, so this isn't directed at you....but it amazes me that we have such great technology as a country, but we still can't predict if it's going to rain during a 4 hour window that begins 7 hours from now. Based on the way you describe these models...I will no longer even consider viewing a 3-10 day forecast. If we can't predict 7 hours out as a weather industry, we're wasting time with 5 and 10 day forecasts.

Carry on

[TheRef]

CD, I know you didn't direct that towards me but I can tell you why every forecast will be wrong. The 6 basic equations of Meteorology that are in every model that has been made and ever will be made are inherently infused with chaos. One small difference in the data can make a huge impact on the long term model output. Therefore, it is a miracle that we even get most forecasts remotely correct. Every model has its strengths and weaknesses but no model will get it exactly correct.
But in all seriousness, it's amazing that we get what little we get correct. I don't like that Accuweather is putting out a 45-day forecast. It is absolutely atrocious.

[CadaverDawg]

CD, I know you didn't direct that towards me but I can tell you why every forecast will be wrong. The 6 basic equations of Meteorology that are in every model that has been made and ever will be made are inherently infused with chaos. One small difference in the data can make a huge impact on the long term model output. Therefore, it is a miracle that we even get most forecasts remotely correct. Every model has its strengths and weaknesses but no model will get it exactly correct.
But in all seriousness, it's amazing that we get what little we get correct. I don't like that Accuweather is putting out a 45-day forecast. It is absolutely atrocious.

Makes sense. I guess I just wish more people were as honest as you about it, instead of acting like they can put out an accurate 10 day forecast. If it is as hard as you say it is to get correct, which I completely believe....then why do weather stations even attempt a 10 day forecast? Would you not agree that if 7 hours from now is still inconclusive, 10 days from now is slim and none?

[starkvegasdawg]

CD, I know you didn't direct that towards me but I can tell you why every forecast will be wrong. The 6 basic equations of Meteorology that are in every model that has been made and ever will be made are inherently infused with chaos. One small difference in the data can make a huge impact on the long term model output. Therefore, it is a miracle that we even get most forecasts remotely correct. Every model has its strengths and weaknesses but no model will get it exactly correct.
But in all seriousness, it's amazing that we get what little we get correct. I don't like that Accuweather is putting out a 45-day forecast. It is absolutely atrocious.

Accuweather has a hard time determining what it did yesterday much less predicting it out into the future. They are worthless for the most part.

[TheRef]

Makes sense. I guess I just wish more people were as honest as you about it, instead of acting like they can put out an accurate 10 day forecast. If it is as hard as you say it is to get correct, which I completely believe....then why do weather stations even attempt a 10 day forecast? Would you not agree that if 7 hours from now is still inconclusive, 10 days from now is slim and none?

The reason why they do it is because people constantly call into stations, yes people are able to call into tv stations, asking what the weather will be the next weekend or even months in advance. So in order to satisfy people, we give you a 10-day forecast in some cases.

[DownwardDawg]

Accuweather has a hard time determining what it did yesterday much less predicting it out into the future. They are worthless for the most part.

Yet they are still better than the weather channel. Most worthless app I've ever downloaded.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yet they are still better than the weather channel. Most worthless app I've ever downloaded.

That's why I usually stick with the NWS. No longer have TWC on tv any more since they got into a pissing match with direct tv.

[TheRef]

That's why I usually stick with the NWS. No longer have TWC on tv any more since they got into a pissing match with direct tv.

WeatherNationTV is getting some good pub from this.

[starkvegasdawg]

WeatherNationTV is getting some good pub from this.
Is it true the on camera mets are not live? I read somewhere those are prerecorded in three hour increments. The added graphics are real time, though.

[TheRef]

Is it true the on camera mets are not live? I read somewhere those are prerecorded in three hour increments. The added graphics are real time, though.

That's true. They are on a 3-hour loop but TWC is rarely live also.

[bully99]

Accuweather is starting a cable/internet channel later in the year. I was at State in the early 80's when the weather channel started and I thought it was the coolest thing. It's unwatchable now, with all its politics and garbage. I use weatherbug app.

[TheRef]

Accuweather is starting a cable/internet channel later in the year. I was at State in the early 80's when the weather channel started and I thought it was the coolest thing. It's unwatchable now, with all its politics and garbage. I use weatherbug app.

AccuweatherTV will be interesting to watch for in the future. It will most likely be students doing most of the recorded stuff with staff making an appearance since Penn State is conjoined at the hip with Accuweather.