Realistically ?

[preachermatt83]

What are your realistic predictions going forward in conference play. Mine may not be what we would hope for but if I were forced to bet this is how I would have to go...

Disclaimer*- This is only my opinion!!

What I think will happen-

Against UGA (already played)- 2-1

Vandy- 1-2

Arky- 2-1

LSU- 0-3

OM- 2-1

Mizzou- 2-1

aTm- 2-1

Auburn- 2-1

Tenn- 2-1

Bama- 1-2

This puts us at 16-14 in the SEC .. Not a regional host. But should get a 2 seed

worst case...-

UGA- 2-1

Vandy- 0-3

Arky- 1-2

LSU- 0-3

OM- 1-2

mizzou- 2-1

aTm- 1-2

Auburn- 1-2

Tenn- 2-1

Bama- 0-3

This worst case would put us at 10-20 in the SEC and you know what that would mean! Again, I don't think this will happen but this is worst case scenario.. I think the best case scenario below is more likely but still not going to happen.

Best Case...-

UGA- 2-1

Vandy- 2-1

Arky- 2-1

LSU- 1-2

OM- 3-0

Mizzou- 3-0

aTm- 2-1

Auburn- 2-1

Tenn- 3-0

Bama- 2-1

That best case would put us at 22-8 in the SEC and hosting with a national seed.. again this is more likely than my worst case but still not gonna happen. Im going with the first list.

[Coach34]

I expected the same thing I expect every season- Regional Host, Super Regional Appearance, then see what happens...

[preachermatt83]

I expected the same thing I expect every season- Regional Host, Super Regional Appearance, then see what happens...

oh I agree completely with this.. the question though, is GOING FORWARD, how do you see the conference series' playing out?

[maroonmania]

What are your realistic predictions going forward in conference play. Mine may not be what we would hope for but if I were forced to bet this is how I would have to go...

Disclaimer*- This is only my opinion!!

What I think will happen-

Against UGA (already played)- 2-1

Vandy- 1-2

Arky- 2-1

LSU- 0-3

OM- 2-1

Mizzou- 2-1

aTm- 2-1

Auburn- 2-1

Tenn- 2-1

Bama- 1-2

This puts us at 16-14 in the SEC .. Not a regional host. But should get a 2 seed

worst case...-

UGA- 2-1

Vandy- 0-3

Arky- 1-2

LSU- 0-3

OM- 1-2

mizzou- 2-1

aTm- 1-2

Auburn- 1-2

Tenn- 2-1

Bama- 0-3

This worst case would put us at 10-20 in the SEC and you know what that would mean! Again, I don't think this will happen but this is worst case scenario.. I think the best case scenario below is more likely but still not going to happen.

Best Case...-

UGA- 2-1

Vandy- 2-1

Arky- 2-1

LSU- 1-2

OM- 3-0

Mizzou- 3-0

aTm- 2-1

Auburn- 2-1

Tenn- 3-0

Bama- 2-1

That best case would put us at 22-8 in the SEC and hosting with a national seed.. again this is more likely than my worst case but still not gonna happen. Im going with the first list.

Well, on your best case, IMO we are more likely to sweep ARK or TA&M than OM or TN. Heck, TN and OM are bothed currently ranked AHEAD of us.

[engie]

You give LSU too much credit in our rivalry with them. Will be interesting to see -- but our team wants NOBODY like they want another shot at them...

[Coach34]

I think we finish about 17-13 and a 2 seed somewhere

[Sandman14]

AT UGA- 2-1

Vandy- 2-1

Arky- 2-1

AT LSU- 1-2 (pencil Friday in as a loss, split the other two)

OM- 2-1

AT Mizzou- 2-1

aTm- 2-1

AT Auburn- 1-2

Tenn- 3-0

AT Bama- 2-1

19 wins.

[preachermatt83]

AT UGA- 2-1

Vandy- 2-1

Arky- 2-1

AT LSU- 1-2 (pencil Friday in as a loss, split the other two)

OM- 2-1

AT Mizzou- 2-1

aTm- 2-1

AT Auburn- 1-2

Tenn- 3-0

AT Bama- 2-1

19 wins.

man I hope you are right but I don't see anyway in the world we win the Vandy series..

[messageboardsuperhero]

So you think we get swept by LSU and don't sweep anyone all season? Meh, I don't buy either of those.

I think we get about 18 wins.

[chainedup_Dawg]

With moving Mitchell and other things like me strongly believing Holder will come around, I truly believe we will take one from Vandy & LSU at least. Maybe 2 from one of those and sweep one or two series later in the year. I see us around 17-19 Wins

ETA: I overshot my prediction a little

[Martianlander]

Believe we've got a good shot at 19-11 and host a regional.

[Sandman14]

man I hope you are right but I don't see anyway in the world we win the Vandy series..

I'll take us at home to win the series against anyone in the nation. Period. Anyone but Holy Cross, anyway. But seriously, the mindset will be 10 times more focussed against Vandy this weekend.

Maybe I'm foolish but I'll take us at home to beat anyone 2 of 3. I think this is another classic, gritty Cohen team. The early struggles have gotten us focussed. I can't see us doing anything but playing top 10 baseball the rest of the season. And when a top 10 team hosts another in college baseball, the edge goes to the home team.

[RougeDawg]

This weekend will clear up a lot for everyone. Competitive series( don't have to win it) and 16-20 possible wins. Little competition and it may be closer to worst case scenario. Vandy is cream of the crop and a nice measuring stick.

[preachermatt83]

if we are all honest if we could go 2-4 against Vandy/LSU combined we would all be happy. I know I would.

[State82]

if we are all honest if we could go 2-4 against Vandy/LSU combined we would all be happy. I know I would.

I don't know that I would be happy, but I don't think I could honestly say that I would be extremely disappointed either. Actually, that is what I believe we will be over those 2 series combined. Now, if we were to go 3-3 with those two I would be overjoyed. I don't think we get swept this year by any SEC foe but I also don't think we will sweep anybody.

[engie]

if we are all honest if we could go 2-4 against Vandy/LSU combined we would all be happy.

No. Not even remotely.

Just because we struggled a little early doesn't mean it's time for me to concede anything.

[preachermatt83]

No. Not even remotely.

Just because we struggled a little early doesn't mean it's time for me to concede anything.

is that not what we done against Vandy and Lsu last yr? 2-4?

[preachermatt83]

I am just telling you right now, unless Beede and Nola are both off very very bad, we aint gonna beat either of those two. so that's 0-2 to start. so to finish 2-4 we would still have to split the other 4 games and with the depth of Vandy's pitching I just don't see it happening. So again...2-4 against Vandy / LSU satisfies me.

[Saltydog]

than this year. Actually I think we'll be anywhere from 14-16 to 16-14. I don't see us doing better than that with what I've seen thus far.

[Johnson85]

Disclaimer*- This is only my opinion!!



Glad I saw your disclaimer before I finished making my bets. Thought you were a time traveler at first...

[engie]

is that not what we done against Vandy and Lsu last yr? 2-4?

No, we were 1-6 against them last year. Which was unsatisfactory.

Neither team is as good as they were last year.

[Sandman14]

I'll take us at home to win the series against anyone in the nation. Period. Anyone but Holy Cross, anyway. But seriously, the mindset will be 10 times more focussed against Vandy this weekend.

Maybe I'm foolish but I'll take us at home to beat anyone 2 of 3. I think this is another classic, gritty Cohen team. The early struggles have gotten us focussed. I can't see us doing anything but playing top 10 baseball the rest of the season. And when a top 10 team hosts another in college baseball, the edge goes to the home team.

where are the guys who thought we'd be swept?

also, note that LSU went 2-0-1 at home, MSU 2-1 at home, TAMU beat UF 2 of 3 at home, UK beat USC 2 of 3 at home, Arky went 2-1 at home, Auburn 2-1 at home and Ole Miss swept at home.

so, as I mentioned before, the series win on the road at UGA was big. and Vandy was gonna have a tough time with us at Dudy Noble.

[engie]

If we make it through the next 2 weekends 4-2 to get to 8-4 overall, we're going to have an excellent shot to win the league this year.

That said, I STILL hated how we lost on Sunday. It's easy to be "satisfied" with a mostly unexpected series victory over Vandy -- but when we lose the outright SEC crown by a game -- it'll come back to us 100% defensively beating ourselves in the 7th, 8th, and 9th yesterday...and failing at situational hitting throughout the game...

That said, time to move on to Arkansas. Their pitching has been excellent, just somewhat inconsistent. Their bats have been pretty bad. This is a must-win series -- and it's one that we could and should sweep if we play well...

[MarketingBully01]

I agree with you on all accounts Engie. Defensively we stunk it up in the later innings yesterday. Hopefully, we got that out of our system for a while. Arkansas is a series we should win if not sweep.

[Real Deal]

That said, I STILL hated how we lost on Sunday. It's easy to be "satisfied" with a mostly unexpected series victory over Vandy -- but when we lose the outright SEC crown by a game -- it'll come back to us 100% defensively beating ourselves in the 7th, 8th, and 9th yesterday...and failing at situational hitting throughout the game...
Did you notice how we won Friday and Saturday? By playing good defense and successful situational hitting while Vandy failed (uncharacteristically) at both. We had luck on our side. I would say that the series pretty much went the way it should have went, and I see no reason why we should think that Sunday was a game that we let slip away.

[Coach34]

We hit some bullets yesterday but right at people. Just a tough day

[MarketingBully01]

We let them score five of those runs by not playing fundamental baseball in the infield. Their first run they scored was because Collins let a passed ball go right by him which they were going to give us an out. By the passed ball going by, they got a hit and made it runners at the corners no outs vs runner at second 1 out. Huge difference. Heck's Frost special caused them to add 2 more runs and of course the comedy of SNAFUs let them put two more runs on in the ninth. We gave them 5 runs more then they earned those runs. How is that NOT letting the game slip away?

We beat them more straight up on Saturday and on Friday we still would have beaten them without their errors. I agree with Engie. We LET Sunday slip away.

[preachermatt83]

if we can go 2-1 against arky and 1-2 against LSU that will put us at 7-5 after the toughest stretch of our schedule and I would be very happy with that... I think we will go 2-1 against OM and I think Tenn is overrated so I look to go 2-1 with them as well at the least. I am starting to worry a little about auburn though, they are certainly making some strides.

[Real Deal]

Vandy made 5 errors Friday, we made 0. 7 of our runs were unearned, and had we not jumped on Beede early with all their errors, he may have settled in and you never know what could have happened.

Vandy made 2 errors Saturday, we made 1. 4-3 unearned run score. Pretty even, I agree, when looking back.

We made 2 errors Sunday to their 0. Earned run score was 2-1.

The reason I say that we can't really say we let a game slip away is because we played them 2 close games and both teams made errors that cost the game. The luck evened out. We were never in a real position to win Sunday. They did not steal the game out from underneath us.

[MarketingBully01]

Vandy made 5 errors Friday, we made 0. 7 of our runs were unearned, and had we not jumped on Beede early with all their errors, he may have settled in and you never know what could have happened.

Vandy made 2 errors Saturday, we made 1. 4-3 unearned run score. Pretty even, I agree, when looking back.

We made 2 errors Sunday to their 0. Earned run score was 2-1.

The reason I say that we can't really say we let a game slip away is because we played them 2 close games and both teams made errors that cost the game. The luck evened out. We were never in a real position to win Sunday. They did not steal the game out from underneath us.

Only reason that they had any earned runs on Sunday is because our score keeper is an idiot. We could have easily been and should have been charged with 2-3 more errors which would have made that 2-1 Earned Run score 1-0 or 1-1 at best.

[engie]

Vandy made 5 errors Friday, we made 0. 7 of our runs were unearned, and had we not jumped on Beede early with all their errors, he may have settled in and you never know what could have happene

Vandy made 2 errors Saturday, we made 1. 4-3 unearned run score. Pretty even, I agree, when looking back.

We made 2 errors Sunday to their 0. Earned run score was 2-1.

The reason I say that we can't really say we let a game slip away is because we played them 2 close games and both teams made errors that cost the game. The luck evened out. We were never in a real position to win Sunday. They did not steal the game out from underneath us.

Errors are not "lucky or unlucky" in the macro sense. Them beating themselves in game 1 is immaterial to us beating ourselves in game 3. That "cancelling effect" doesn't matter when you are looking at it specifically from MSU's shoes. We were "who we are" Friday and Saturday -- while they crumbled under pressure. Hardly a reason for us to return the favor on Sunday. We went "uncharacteristic" in the late innings on Sunday and let it slip away. Fact is -- we had a chance to sweep -- and we didn't get it done. IDGAF what the official score book said -- Vanderbilt had zero "earned" runs in that game.

I have this philosophical argument and it gets lengthy every year. I look at it from a very internalized standpoint. Baseball is most often a game against yourself -- and the other team being there is inconsequential to that "game within the game". Everyone that is successful at the highest level plays it this way -- with the goal of personal perfection -- and if you and all your teammates do this, end results take care of themselves. Fact is -- giving up runs on errors, walks, or other mistakes = "beating yourself". Having a team put up a 7-spot on us like UGA did on Friday is more easily considered "simply getting beat" in a way that you can tip your hat.

Does it make the series win overall any less impressive? No, not really. But the margin for error is razor thin at times -- especially over the course of a season.

[Homedawg]

No question the official scorer had a brain fart on more than one play. Not sure what constitutes and error in his eyes.

[Sandman14]

Vandy made 5 errors Friday, we made 0. 7 of our runs were unearned, and had we not jumped on Beede early with all their errors, he may have settled in and you never know what could have happened.

Vandy made 2 errors Saturday, we made 1. 4-3 unearned run score. Pretty even, I agree, when looking back.

We made 2 errors Sunday to their 0. Earned run score was 2-1.

The reason I say that we can't really say we let a game slip away is because we played them 2 close games and both teams made errors that cost the game. The luck evened out. We were never in a real position to win Sunday. They did not steal the game out from underneath us.

Actually, when you are playing at home and in the 6th inning of a 0-0 tie and you get a runner to third with less than 2 outs, I do think we let that game slip from our grasp.

Vandy showed us how it's done right after that with a squeeze play to get the job done.

Vandy is a great team, and once we did not get that run home, we put the ball in their court to get the W, and they came through like we knew they would.

The weekend was nothing to be disappointed about but sunday left a bad taste. Me personally, I'm optimistic and feel that Sunday quite possibly could work to our advantage. It's a lesson that Cohen will drive home, and we won't come out of the weekend floating on air. Back to reality. Back to the grind.

[MarketingBully01]

Errors are not "lucky or unlucky" in the macro sense. Them beating themselves in game 1 is immaterial to us beating ourselves in game 3. That "cancelling effect" doesn't matter when you are looking at it specifically from MSU's shoes. We were "who we are" Friday and Saturday -- while they crumbled under pressure. Hardly a reason for us to return the favor on Sunday. We went "uncharacteristic" in the late innings on Sunday and let it slip away. Fact is -- we had a chance to sweep -- and we didn't get it done. IDGAF what the official score book said -- Vanderbilt had zero "earned" runs in that game.

I have this philosophical argument and it gets lengthy every year. I look at it from a very internalized standpoint. Baseball is most often a game against yourself -- and the other team being there is inconsequential to that "game within the game". Everyone that is successful at the highest level plays it this way -- with the goal of personal perfection -- and if you and all your teammates do this, end results take care of themselves. Fact is -- giving up runs on errors, walks, or other mistakes = "beating yourself". Having a team put up a 7-spot on us like UGA did on Friday is more easily considered "simply getting beat" in a way that you can tip your hat.

Does it make the series win overall any less impressive? No, not really. But the margin for error is razor thin at times -- especially over the course of a season.

I agree with everything Engie has stated in this thread. When Engie and I both agree on something, it should be indisputable fact.

[Real Deal]

Everyone's goal is to be perfect. That is not rocket science. Unfortunately you cannot always play perfectly, especially with another talented team like Vanderbilt. Sorry but I disagree with you MarketingBully01, engie and all others who agree with your indisputable facts.

[MarketingBully01]

Yep, and your point of view is one of the most ridiculed you could have on here. A proverbial "that's baseball" point of view. Ahh, haven't heard that opinion in a while. Touche, it's obvious we won't change each other's opinions.

[engie]

Everyone's goal is to be perfect. That is not rocket science. Unfortunately you cannot always play perfectly, especially with another talented team like Vanderbilt. Sorry but I disagree with you MarketingBully01, engie and all others who agree with your indisputable facts.

~ 5 errors in a 3 inning period is a "norm" that we should have expected because VANDERBILT was on the jersey of the team that was hitting the routine ground balls, laying down the routine bunts, and at the plate when we had the hugely costly passed ball that eventually plated the first run?

Sorry -- that doesn't make sense. The name on the opponent's jersey is inconsequential to if/when you beat yourself. That loss on Sunday was virtually identical to the Memphis loss earlier in the year. Doesn't matter how "good" the other team is when you beat yourself without forcing the other team to actually step up and beat you at your best.

[MarketingBully01]

When you put it that way Engie, his argument makes even less sense and it is more of the "That's baseball" point of view.