engie
02-20-2014, 01:00 PM
Everyone knows about the "dark horse" status in the offseason. Naturally being interested in this, I compiled a list of "what has to happen" to get invited to New York.
Tebow won at 9-3. RG3 won at 9-3. It's safe to say that a 9-3 regular season is the "base" to be a legitimate contender. And on top of that, you need a "Heisman moment" against an elite team that leads your team to victory. That said...
Tebow stats that year(as a trSO):
210 rushes 895yds 23TD 4.26AVG
234-350(66.9%) 3286yds 32TD 6INT
Tebow played 560 of 586 total plays(95.56%). He was only out for 26 plays all year.
RG3 stats that year(as a rsJR):
179 rushes 699yds 10TD 3.91AVG
291-402(72.4%) 4293yds 37TD 6INT
RG3 played 581 of 608 total plays(95.55%). He was only out of the game for 27 plays all year.
Dak played 401 of 620 total plays(64.68%). He split a lot of time with Tyler Russell and missed basically 3 full games with injury. He also sat out the entire 4th quarter of several non conference games. He took about 30.88% less of his team's total snaps than RG3 and Tebow did. His actual number is probably even less than this -- since QBs don't show up on "plays" that they hand it off -- and given that Russell was far more likely to do this than Dak was, it skews "total plays" against Dak.
Dak's stats extrapolated over a "full season" where he takes the same percentage of snaps as RG3 and Tebow if he simply stays the same:
175 rushes 1085yds 17TD 6.19AVG
204-349(58.4%) 2539yds 13TD 9INT
3rec 69yds 3TD
Dak is already in the conversation as a runner. So, we won't waste time focusing on that.
His completion percentage needs to improve another 7-8%, he needs to throw for about 3500 yards next year, and we've got to more than double our receiving TD production. He needs to cut down on the INTs and Mullen has to leave him in games for "style points" and stat-padding(the part I have the hardest time seeing -- even though his mentor Meyer is famous for it). He also needs a couple of receivers to really step up and help him out.
Now, let's get technical with that amount of advancement as a passer. 3500 yards is an average of 270ypg through the air -- a number Dak was near in 3 of his last 4 starts. The one that he wasn't close(aTm), Russell essentially took 14 throws away from him. With their rotation, "good data" is hard to find...
We averaged 33.0 throws per game this year -- a number inflated by Russell but deflated by our early lack of trust in Dak throwing and Damien's pt being largely run-first. So, cancel those out, and I think we again throw 30-35 times per game again this year. Dak was at 7.3 yards/attempt last year(12.44 yards per completion). If he simply gets his completion percentage up another 6-8%, while throwing the same length passes and staying in for 95ish% of overall snaps, that's between 258 and 266 completions for a total of between 3205 and 3309 yards. If he can tack on an extra yard per completion(where the receivers come in), that gets us to about 3500 yards. Or, going the other way, if he tacks on an extra 2 yards per completion(14.44yards per), that requires only about 242 total completions in a total of 390(30passpergame) to 455(35passpergame) -- or between 54 and 62%. Even though we reach the 3500 "magic number" this way, for the "Heisman sniff test", I think the completion percentage has to be higher than these two figures.
Overall, he will need to account for about 50 touchdowns. If he had played the same percentage of snaps as RG3 and Tebow last season, he would have accounted for 33 total. That's the number that needs to increase the most drastically -- and consequently, the number I have the hardest time seeing.
It's a long shot -- as these things always are. But, it's not out of reach...
Tebow won at 9-3. RG3 won at 9-3. It's safe to say that a 9-3 regular season is the "base" to be a legitimate contender. And on top of that, you need a "Heisman moment" against an elite team that leads your team to victory. That said...
Tebow stats that year(as a trSO):
210 rushes 895yds 23TD 4.26AVG
234-350(66.9%) 3286yds 32TD 6INT
Tebow played 560 of 586 total plays(95.56%). He was only out for 26 plays all year.
RG3 stats that year(as a rsJR):
179 rushes 699yds 10TD 3.91AVG
291-402(72.4%) 4293yds 37TD 6INT
RG3 played 581 of 608 total plays(95.55%). He was only out of the game for 27 plays all year.
Dak played 401 of 620 total plays(64.68%). He split a lot of time with Tyler Russell and missed basically 3 full games with injury. He also sat out the entire 4th quarter of several non conference games. He took about 30.88% less of his team's total snaps than RG3 and Tebow did. His actual number is probably even less than this -- since QBs don't show up on "plays" that they hand it off -- and given that Russell was far more likely to do this than Dak was, it skews "total plays" against Dak.
Dak's stats extrapolated over a "full season" where he takes the same percentage of snaps as RG3 and Tebow if he simply stays the same:
175 rushes 1085yds 17TD 6.19AVG
204-349(58.4%) 2539yds 13TD 9INT
3rec 69yds 3TD
Dak is already in the conversation as a runner. So, we won't waste time focusing on that.
His completion percentage needs to improve another 7-8%, he needs to throw for about 3500 yards next year, and we've got to more than double our receiving TD production. He needs to cut down on the INTs and Mullen has to leave him in games for "style points" and stat-padding(the part I have the hardest time seeing -- even though his mentor Meyer is famous for it). He also needs a couple of receivers to really step up and help him out.
Now, let's get technical with that amount of advancement as a passer. 3500 yards is an average of 270ypg through the air -- a number Dak was near in 3 of his last 4 starts. The one that he wasn't close(aTm), Russell essentially took 14 throws away from him. With their rotation, "good data" is hard to find...
We averaged 33.0 throws per game this year -- a number inflated by Russell but deflated by our early lack of trust in Dak throwing and Damien's pt being largely run-first. So, cancel those out, and I think we again throw 30-35 times per game again this year. Dak was at 7.3 yards/attempt last year(12.44 yards per completion). If he simply gets his completion percentage up another 6-8%, while throwing the same length passes and staying in for 95ish% of overall snaps, that's between 258 and 266 completions for a total of between 3205 and 3309 yards. If he can tack on an extra yard per completion(where the receivers come in), that gets us to about 3500 yards. Or, going the other way, if he tacks on an extra 2 yards per completion(14.44yards per), that requires only about 242 total completions in a total of 390(30passpergame) to 455(35passpergame) -- or between 54 and 62%. Even though we reach the 3500 "magic number" this way, for the "Heisman sniff test", I think the completion percentage has to be higher than these two figures.
Overall, he will need to account for about 50 touchdowns. If he had played the same percentage of snaps as RG3 and Tebow last season, he would have accounted for 33 total. That's the number that needs to increase the most drastically -- and consequently, the number I have the hardest time seeing.
It's a long shot -- as these things always are. But, it's not out of reach...