Thursday Severe Weather Threat

[TheRef]

I will post on this thread my forecast for Thursday and the main threats and threat areas tonight around 9:30 PM CST if anyone is interested. I would do a nice discussion about it through Google+ but my computer still is turning down my mic without my direction so no can do there. But I will post a blog post on my website about it and it will have the in-depth forecast on it. I'll post a link to the in-depth when I post the basic forecast for those of you who are curious of how I came to the forecast that I will give. Once again, thank you for being patient and I will look forward to hearing comments from everyone.

[starkvegasdawg]

I will post on this thread my forecast for Thursday and the main threats and threat areas tonight around 9:30 PM CST if anyone is interested. I would do a nice discussion about it through Google+ but my computer still is turning down my mic without my direction so no can do there. But I will post a blog post on my website about it and it will have the in-depth forecast on it. I'll post a link to the in-depth when I post the basic forecast for those of you who are curious of how I came to the forecast that I will give. Once again, thank you for being patient and I will look forward to hearing comments from everyone.

In the words of Al Bundy...Let's rock.

[TheRef]

Okay. It seems that I have figured out my mic problem and it is solved. I haven't had my computer turn it down any for about 15 minutes of me talking constantly so I'm confident in it not doing it during the broadcast. So here are the links if you want to watch me go through this forecast. I will post the written discussion later with images that I used (and probably some GIFs of the model output) and give y'all a nice little summary of what I'm thinking for the MS/AL/TN areas as far as severe threats are concerned.

Youtube: http://youtu.be/2hxsqSNeuq8
Google+: https://plus.google.com/events/clms3dcj8as2nucfua4eg9g6grk

I will post the replay of it later on if the audio works like I think it will. I will also link to my blog post of me writing out basically what I said for those of you who don't want to watch the video and just read it. Also I'll give the basic small-terms forecast for those of you who don't want to go through my mumbo-jumbo talking/typing. I'll try to start around 9:35 or so.

[Will James]

Look for starkville tomorrow?

[TheRef]

Look for starkville tomorrow?

I will detail the Starkville area forecast for this event. We will be included in some severe weather, I'll delve into that with this forecast for sure and tell you my greatest risk areas.

[breazy]

where'd the video go? says it was removed

[TheRef]

where'd the video go? says it was removed

New link is up. Audio was messed up so I re-recorded and the audio works perfectly throughout. Thank you for your understanding.

[bdfan09]

Very nice. Good job!

[TheRef]

Very nice. Good job!

Thank you very much. I will post the written forecast later for those of you who don't want to watch this or are looking for just the basic idea. ETA is about 15 minutes or so.

[TheRef]

Blog post detailing everything that I said in the video: http://norwoodwx.tumblr.com/post/77245234685/thursday-severe-weather-threat-forecast
Link to video for those who don't feel like reading but feel like watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hxsqSNeuq8

Basic Synopsis for those who feel like doing neither:
NE Mississippi (NE of Tupelo), NW Alabama, Central Tennessee around the Nashville area, and South-Central Kentucky=Main Threat Area (MTA).
Within the MTA, you can expect winds in excess of 75 mph with a few embedded hail cores that may drop stones with diameters in excess of 1 inch. (Both are past severe guidlines)
Outside of MTA, you can expect some straight line winds which may or may not reach severe standards of 58 mph sustained. You also may or may not experience hail that is past the severe diameter standards (1" diameter is considered severe).

[Will James]

What time to expect the bad stuff in the GTR area

[TheRef]

What time to expect the bad stuff in the GTR area

I would expect us to start feeling stuff around late afternoon into early evening.

[hells bells]

I would expect us to start feeling stuff around late afternoon into early evening.

Central Miss. Forest to Meridian?

Always great.

Thanks Ref

[TheRef]

Central Miss. Forest to Meridian?

Always great.

Thanks Ref

You're almost completely out of the severe threat in my opinion. You will most likely get some moderate winds with some rainfall.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ref,

Indulge me a minute if you will please. First, everything I am seeing is backing your forecast 100%. I have no reason to doubt it. But, can you take a look at the link below and let me know what they are depicting? I think the image to the left may be forecast cape values but no clue to the one on the right. Yes, these are from one Reed timmer. He is still calling for strong tornadoes over nw ms tomorrow and since that is where my mom lives I am just trying to figure out what he is looking at to come to the conclusion no one else is. Just trying to make sure she is as safe as possible living alone. She does not handle bad weather well and depends on me to know what to do.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t31/1658138_10152240483944169_1731798868_o.jpg

[TheRef]

Left side is definitely forecasted CAPE, Right side I'm not entirely sure what he is depicting in the photo. The thing is, he's looking at only the positives for a tornado rather than the load of negatives for tornadoes. I will definitely be able to give a definite answer for safety tomorrow morning but for now, she is safe in my opinion.

[starkvegasdawg]

Works for me. Last two days I have been telling her this should not be a big deal but stay alert just in case. I saw where cantore is going to Nashville. Reed is setting up base in ms tomorrow and then deciding where to go. I think I'll have to get out just to scratch that chase itch but I doubt I go more than 20 miles from Vegas.

[TheRef]

Works for me. Last two days I have been telling her this should not be a big deal but stay alert just in case. I saw where cantore is going to Nashville. Reed is setting up base in ms tomorrow and then deciding where to go. I think I'll have to get out just to scratch that chase itch but I doubt I go more than 20 miles from Vegas.

I know there is at least one adventurous chaser who will be taking the trek to the Delta tomorrow. I keep telling him that it won't be worth it but he's looking for photogenic storms also.

[starkvegasdawg]

I know there is at least one adventurous chaser who will be taking the trek to the Delta tomorrow. I keep telling him that it won't be worth it but he's looking for photogenic storms also.

Check out a retweet I just found. I forgot who it was from but they were showing a broken line of discrete supercells ahead of main line tomorrow with CAPE between 1k and 2k. Something is just not stirring the koolaid with all this. This close to the event and still some models showing as being this big of an outlier from the consensus. I found that it was the NAM reed was looking at but still no clue on that one graphic.

[TheRef]

Check out a retweet I just found. I forgot who it was from but they were showing a broken line of discrete supercells ahead of main line tomorrow with CAPE between 1k and 2k. Something is just not stirring the koolaid with all this. This close to the event and still some models showing as being this big of an outlier from the consensus. I found that it was the NAM reed was looking at but still no clue on that one graphic.

NAM is not handling this well AT ALL. I stuck with the GFS due to it handling everything the best. NAM is literally sitting in the corner picking its nose. GFS and ECMWF seem to be handling this the best, IMO.

[starkvegasdawg]

I believe you mentioned nam having issues before. Sounds like it is that one crazy hurricane model that takes storms the exact opposite of every other model. Be interesting to see what we wake up to tomorrow.

[Drugdog]

I got to Tip My Hat too you Weather guys.
You guys know your business.