Ross Mitchell: Better lucky than good?

[Will James]

Everybody knows that Ross leads the league in ERA. But does that stat really show the pitcher's skill or true impact? ERA is a stat that makes a pitcher rely on the defense to get to balls, make plays, etc.

In Sabermetric circles there is a stat known as BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the "luck" of a pitcher because it has been shown to not transfer from year to year. Pitchers with high BABIP will seem a little off their norm (Wainwright at 14-13 last year had the 5th highest BABIP); or those with low BABIP seem to be improved than their norm (Kyle Lohse at 16-3 last year had the 9th lowest BABIP)

To take the "luck" out of the equation the statistic FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). This takes away the "luck" factor as it only focuses on the outcomes pitchers solely control. HR, BB, SO, HBP.


FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constantThe constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. You can find historical FIP constant values here (http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn), or you can derive the constant by taking league-average FIP and subtracting that from league-average ERA.

The SEC league average FIP is .69 and league average ERA is 3.66. Making our "constant" 2.97.

Now that we have the background info out of the way, let's see how our guys FIP match up for SEC Play.

Holder 1.38
Lindgren 2.43
R.Mitchell 3.14
Graveman 3.23
Pollorena 3.59

So it would seem Mitchell has gotten a little lucky, with this number so much higher that his ERA. Comparatively, Lindgren hasn't caught the breaks. This number however gives me the wool looking forward to the rest of this year and into next.

Looking at our pitchers for the entire year I recalculated our constant and FIP. Here's those numbers



Holder
1.04


Girodo
1.57


Lindgren
1.93


Gentry
2.68


Shelly
2.73


Pollorena
2.87


Bradford
2.87


R Mitchell
2.97


Bracewell
3.00


Graveman
3.07


Woodruff
3.34


Fitts
3.45


Cox
3.97


Mitchell
5.20


Brown
6.00

[Coach34]

outstanding work there....thanks Will

[Todd4State]

I don't know if he is lucky or not, but he somehow finds a way to get the job done. I was talking about Ross the other day, and it was kind of funny- the guy I was talking to said, "it always seems like Ross gives up a hit with the first batter he faces. And then he shuts everybody else down."

What I've noticed about Ross, is he may have a little bit of trouble with the first batter or two, then he gets in a groove, then he gets tired and he maybe gives up a few hits, but again he somehow works out of it, and then when his arm is about to fall off THEN his ball really starts to sink and he gets really tough. I could see where his FIP could be high because in the midst of all that, he will give up a walk or two and maybe hit a batter or two and he doesn't normally strike out a lot of guys.

I do think you have to give credit to our defense because they make plays, and with a pitcher like him the infielders and outfielders know that they are likely going to have to make a play because the ball is likely going to be put into play when he pitches, and that helps keep them on their toes. He doesn't throw hard, but he has so much movement, and then he has that glove tap, so he has some moving parts and I imagine it's hard to pick up the ball and really square it up, and you know that the batter is pretty much going to have to supply all the power to hit it really well against him.

I think you have to also credit Ross because he does attack the strike zone, and he's not afraid to let the other team put the ball in play.

[Todd4State]

We all should be wooly about Lindgren- he's a left handed pitcher that throws in the low 90's and has a power sinker. He was drafted in the 12th round by the Cubs for a good reason.

[msstate7]

We all should be wooly about Lindgren- he's a left handed pitcher that throws in the low 90's and has a power sinker. He was drafted in the 12th round by the Cubs for a good reason.
If lindgren and woodruff are fully healthy next year, we'll win more than a couple sec series before Sunday.

[Todd4State]

Oh no doubt. And I really like Trevor Fitts too. I think he is better than Will Cox, who I think is pretty good too. If we get that Dakota Hudson guy to come to school, he will have a say in our rotation as well. Like I said, pitching will be our strength. It's just a matter of who amongst our position players is coming back- even getting Frazier back would be a huge boost and hopefully no bad surprises like someone drafting CT high enough for him to make the jump.

[Will James]

I'll run the numbers from 2011 and 2012 tomorrow to see how players FIP improved/fluctuated.

[Eric Nies Grind Time]

College Splits is a pretty cool website for anyone interested in this.

Here is their MSU Page: http://www.collegesplits.com/cgi-bin/csTeam.cgi?tm=mis02

[Will James]

College Splits is a pretty cool website for anyone interested in this.

Here is their MSU Page: http://www.collegesplits.com/cgi-bin/csTeam.cgi?tm=mis02

Wonder what their FIP formula is. I used the one on fangraphs. But it's the same pattern.
Also they may use a standard constant while I used the SEC ERA and FIP to determine it.

[Will James]

College Splits is a pretty cool website for anyone interested in this.

Here is their MSU Page: http://www.collegesplits.com/cgi-bin/csTeam.cgi?tm=mis02


Ross' unusually low BABIP pretty much confirms my hypothesis.

WOW. On the college splits site, guess who leads the SEC in FIP for pitchers with qualified innings..... Lindgren.
http://www.collegesplits.com/cgi-bin/csLeaders.cgi?conf=SEC&bp=p&stat=FIP&adj=r

[The Croom Diaries]

Ross' unusually low BABIP pretty much confirms my hypothesis.


I think I see where you're going with this - to say that Ross Mitchell has been the beneficiary of some good defense and/or has had a lack of bloops hits and seeing eye singles as compared to Lindgren.

The FIP seems to favor pitchers that have a heavy number of strikeouts, so Holder would undoubtedly be on top. And Lindgren would certainly be ahead of Mitchell and Graveman. I see that you're trying to see who had had some luck this year and who hasn't, but it seems like comparing pitchers with different strengths is somewhat of an apples to oranges comparison.

Mitchell has a very deceptive motion and he gets some sink on his ball like Graveman, their objective is to get hitters to not make solid contact and hit a groundball. If the hitter isn't making solid contact then it will definitely be easier for the defense to make the play. The straighter you throw the ball, the better likelihood of it being squared up and making it harder for the defense to record an out, conversely they will get more strikeouts.

If Mitchell hadn't had a 1.18 ERA last year in 38 IP I might buy in more, but to me he has proven that he is very successful at what he does - getting ground ball outs, and as long as we have an infield that can field a routine ground ball and accurately throw it to first, I think he'll be effective.

As for Lindgren, he may very well be the victim of some bad luck that should turn around by the law of averages, but I don't think his numbers should mean Ross Mitchell has been more lucky than good.

[Will James]

Oh I'm definitely not saying Ross hasn't been good. Ground ball % is a very meaningful aspect, I wish we had those types of numbers to look at.

A lot of my luck thoughts have centered around his 0.79 SEC ERA while at the same time SEC hitters are hitting .297 against him which is way off from our other arms.

In a perfect world the whole F/X thing would be perfected and available so we could see how hard the ball is hit off of every pitcher and at what angle and be able to qualify that.

[msstate7]

Oh I'm definitely not saying Ross hasn't been good. Ground ball % is a very meaningful aspect, I wish we had those types of numbers to look at.

A lot of my luck thoughts have centered around his 0.79 SEC ERA while at the same time SEC hitters are hitting .297 against him which is way off from our other arms.

In a perfect world the whole F/X thing would be perfected and available so we could see how hard the ball is hit off of every pitcher and at what angle and be able to qualify that.

How many of the hits that he's given up have been extra bases? I doubt many. If that's the case, you have to string hits together against him and with the new bats...

[The Croom Diaries]

Or how many double plays has he induced? If he gives up a single up the middle but the next guy grounds into a 4-6-3 then his goal of getting a ground ball got both guys out. If say Holder gives up a single up the middle but then strikes out the next guy, that leadoff man is still on first base. If the third hitter in both scenarios hits a double, Holder gave up a run but Mitchell didn't. In other words, despite his high opponents BA, how many players that get hits off him are ultimately part of a double play in that inning? What's more, how spread out are the hits he is giving up? His WHIP is a little over 1 - what is a good WHIP? As long as he can scatter those hits he'll be really effective, but obviously if he's getting a couple of men on every few innings there is probably a fair amount of luck in there being that if there is another hit or two in an inning he will give up a crooked number.

[Will James]

How many of the hits that he's given up have been extra bases? I doubt many. If that's the case, you have to string hits together against him and with the new bats...

6 doubles in 22 IP.

Out of Ross Holder Graveman Lindgren and Pollo, Ross has the highest XBH/IP.

[Will James]

His WHIP is a little over 1 - what is a good WHIP?

SEC WHIP is 1.39

SEC WHIPS
Holder .88
Lindgren 1.25
Graveman 1.26
Ross 1.39
Pollo 1.41

[msstate7]

6 doubles in 22 IP.

Out of Ross Holder Graveman Lindgren and Pollo, Ross has the highest XBH/IP.

Well then it's gotta be that he's a religious young man. God is helping him. Really I have no idea other than what croom mentioned (dp's)

[The Croom Diaries]

SEC WHIP is 1.39

SEC WHIPS
Holder .88
Lindgren 1.25
Graveman 1.26
Ross 1.39
Pollo 1.41

I think that is a better measure of your lucky theory than the FIP. If he's right at the average yet leads the league in ERA then he obviously gets himself into just as many jams as everyone else, but he gets out of them better - that could eventually come back to haunt him. Hopefully it won't. As long as he keeps getting those DPs he ought to be fine.

[Will James]

Well then it's gotta be that he's a religious young man. God is helping him. Really I have no idea other than what croom mentioned (dp's)

I'm manually looking the DP's up right now. We need a better stats department.

[msstate7]

I think that is a better measure of your lucky theory than the FIP. If he's right at the average yet leads the league in ERA then he obviously gets himself into just as many jams as everyone else, but he gets out of them better - that could eventually come back to haunt him. Hopefully it won't. As long as he keeps getting those DPs he ought to be fine.
And his fielders keep helping him. As our defense goes so does Ross Mitchell.

[Will James]

And his fielders keep helping him. As our defense goes so does Ross Mitchell.

SEC Double Plays:
Graveman 8
R. Mitchell 5
Pollorena 3
Holder 3
Lindgren 1

[The Croom Diaries]

I'm manually looking the DP's up right now. We need a better stats department.

You should ask Joe Dier to hire you to keep more in-depth stats for a nominal fee. Maybe they'll pay you $150 a month to track this stuff you love to track anyway.

[msstate7]

SEC Double Plays:
Graveman 8
R. Mitchell 5
Pollorena 3
Holder 3
Lindgren 1

I'm sure his dp per inning pitched is very high then

[Will James]

You should ask Joe Dier to hire you to keep more in-depth stats for a nominal fee. Maybe they'll pay you $150 a month to track this stuff you love to track anyway.

Haha wouldn't that be nice. Well here is the SEC FIP's from 2012. Let's see how FIP is transferring

Stratton 1.87
Holder 1.94 - 1.38 2013 He's Great
Lindgren 2.61 - 2.43 2013 Very Strong
Pollorena 2.70 - 3.59 2013 albiet he is a SP now
R.Mitchell 2.98 - 3.14 2013 same with Pollo, tougher spots.
Graveman 3.50 - 3.23 2013 transfers yr to yr
Reed 3.83
E Mitchell 4.08
Routt 4.40

[Eric Nies Grind Time]

Maybe this has mentioned before, but a big part of R. Mitchells success is that he just does not get hit hard.

In 96 IP over the last two seasons he has given up 69 hits, and only 11 (!) of those have been for extra bases, and no homeruns.

So when you face Mitchell he is making you string together several hits to score against him.

[Will James]

Maybe this has mentioned before, but a big part of R. Mitchells success is that he just does not get hit hard.

In 96 IP over the last two seasons he has given up 69 hits, and only 11 (!) of those have been for extra bases, and no homeruns.

So when you face Mitchell he is making you string together several hits to score against him.


In 75 IP over the last two season's Lindgren's only given up 9 XBH.
That's an exact .12 XBH/IP for both Lindgren and Mitchell

[Will James]

Maybe this has mentioned before, but a big part of R. Mitchells success is that he just does not get hit hard.

In 96 IP over the last two seasons he has given up 69 hits, and only 11 (!) of those have been for extra bases, and no homeruns.

So when you face Mitchell he is making you string together several hits to score against him.

SEC ONLY 2012-13

Lindgren 40.2 IP ...6 XBH ...46 K... 14 BB+HBP ...AVG .248 ...2.74 FIP
Mitchell .34.1 IP ...6 XBH ...12 K ...8 BB+HBP .....AVG .254 ..3.15 FIP

Yet Mitchell's SEC ERA is 1.31
And Lindgren's SEC ERA is 4.66

Conclusion: Lindgren is on the extreme fringes of unluckiness in pitching and Ross is tilting towards the lucky side though not as far on the fringe as Lindgren.

[CadaverDawg]

This is good shit, guys.

Reputation points all around

[Quaoarsking]

Excellent work Will, relying on hard data rather than superstitious dogmatic nonsense or traditional ways of thinking. You will make a good liberal soon.

[msstate7]

Excellent work Will, relying on hard data rather than superstitious dogmatic nonsense or traditional ways of thinking. You will make a good liberal soon.

I laughed