Well, looks like the local forecasters/meteorologists in North MS laid a big ole turd

[Saltydog]

on the weather forecasts for the swow and ice. Tupelo was forecasted to receive 2-4" of snow/ice. Received notta but rain, which is fine by me. I hate driving to work in it anyway and barring a blizzard I would've had to have been at work anyway. They should've waited til this a.m. to cancel the schools instead of last night.

[J-Dawg]

I think this whole system, while has been troublesome in the Delta at places, has been a giant overreaction stemming from the giant UNDERreaction of the system a couple weeks ago that caused so much havoc. Tends to happen with the media-types.

[TheRef]

on the weather forecasts for the swow and ice. Tupelo was forecasted to receive 2-4" of snow/ice. Received notta but rain. They should've waited til this a.m. to cancel the schools instead of last night.

Okay....so here's the deal. Everything was looking like we would get snow/ice in a very significant amount. What happened was that a mid-level warm layer invaded quicker than everyone expected which caused the precip type to change dramatically even though it was only a 2 degree change in the mid-levels. It is frustrating to see Meteorologists being criticized for having an incorrect forecast. I understand that you are frustrated that schools were let out. Actually now the forecast calls for 1-2" of snow that would make roads slushy/hazardous to drive on. In a situation like this, it was better to be safe than sorry school-wise. With the recent events in Birmingham and Atlanta, would you rather them say f*** it and take the risk of your kids being stuck at school or be cautious and cancel school just in case.

[Saltydog]

nt

[Saltydog]

NT

[starkvegasdawg]

You picked a hard, thankless profession there, Ref. Unless you live in San Diego where you don't even need to have meterologists. Just have the news anchor say at the end of the broadcast, "Oh by the way, sunny and 75 the rest of the week."

[godlluB]

What I find frustrating is that everyone jumps the gun and cancels everything so early. In this day and age, it just isn't necessary.

When I was a kid, you got up early in the morning and turned on the local news to see if things were canceled that day. Now, everyone wants to panic and announce shut downs 24 hours or more before the event.

Between Twitter, Facebook, MaroonAlert, AlertNow (Starkville School District), and similar technologies, it just wouldn't be that difficult to wait until 5am to decide the correct course of action, then broadcast the announcement. They did that in the '70's
when communication was much more difficult than it is today.

[Saltydog]

might have been able to work couldn't because they had no one to keep their kids. That doesn't count the countless plants/factories that shut down in advance and cancelled shifts, etc.

[TheRef]

I understand your frustration completely. I'm sorry that it didn't turn out quite like everyone wanted/hoped. Conditions changed, forecasts were made and forecasts were busted. This whole system has been frustrating to watch and to forecast. You could literally see your forecast die in front of you. But you have to think of the flip-side of the coin for us. If we would have said, "It's going to just be raining the whole time, no chance for wintry precipitation," then it ends up icing over roads and people are injured/killed we take it the hardest. James Spann who is quite possibly the best severe weather forecaster in the business broke down on air apologizing over the last event. You don't think it hurts to see people injured because of your forecast? Meteorologists want their forecasts to save lives and when they hear that someone has died on their watch, depression is a real thing. We study events, we try to make our forecast techniques better in order to make a better forecast. We have meetings, symposiums, and collaborations in order to check in on each other and to try to make each other better. I swear, if you ask your local Meteorologist what a great day would be in their mind, it would be a severe weather event where there is no damage and no one is injured/killed. Why? Because that means that what they did mattered and that people were saved. I know some Meteorologists were up over 24 hours watching and forecasting this event. It's not fun.

[starkvegasdawg]

What I find frustrating is that everyone jumps the gun and cancels everything so early. In this day and age, it just isn't necessary.

When I was a kid, you got up early in the morning and turned on the local news to see if things were canceled that day. Now, everyone wants to panic and announce shut downs 24 hours or more before the event.

Between Twitter, Facebook, MaroonAlert, AlertNow (Starkville School District), and similar technologies, it just wouldn't be that difficult to wait until 5am to decide the correct course of action, then broadcast the announcement. They did that in the '70's
when communication was much more difficult than it is today.

I agree. I am also baffled at shutting down due to severe weather. Why even have tornado drills anymore if they are going to close schools when severe weather threatens. To me, it is more dangerous having busses trying to run and parents scrambling to pick their kids up with severe weather looming. If some parents want to go check their kids out then fine. I don't know. I know the schools are just trying to reduce liability when people today want to sue if they feel the least bit wronged.

[MetEdDawg]

This is why meteorologists are the ones consulted on school closings and timings of events than your average Joe. Guys, I'm here to tell you, forecasting the weather events that include snow/sleet/freezing rain in the South is THE hardest thing to do and I would challenge anyone to spend a winter like this is a meteorologist's shoes.

So many people don't understand how difficult it is. For those that think in this day and age we can wait until the morning or we should all just wait and see what happens, I guarantee you would be cussing like a sailor at that decision had the temperature been 2 degree colder and you had 1/4 to 1/2 inch of freezing rain underneath 2-4 inches of snow last night and no decision had been made on whether or not your child goes to school. The best meteorologists in the world, US, and Southeast can totally blow a forecast, send thousands of people stranded on interstates, but some still think it's ok to just wait around and make last minute decisions on this kind of stuff.

Come on people. With these events, you literally can do everything right and be 100% wrong. When the tools you use to forecast give you wrong information, why would you want to wait until the morning on an event like this? That makes no sense guys. You can't get pissed at the meteorologists for blowing a forecast and you having to walk home, then get mad the next time when they caution you something similar could happen and it doesn't pan out.

And don't give me the "I wish I could get paid to be as wrong as they are". Think for a second why they are wrong so frequently, then think it you would rather change places with them. Better to be safe than sorry guys. People can't make decisions on work, children, and other obligations in today's world at 5 AM. There is too much in play in terms of parents going to work, school employees having to be at school, and having to make plans on where to send children if you have to go to work and your children don't have to go to school. We have so much farther to advance in meteorology it isn't even funny. The best in the world were brought to their knees two weeks ago and we still have no idea why the tools we use to forecast can't get it right. It is very rare that a meteorologist totally nails a forecast like this, so most of the time they get hammered. So you can be right 355-360 days out of 365, and get destroyed publicly for those 5-10 days you mess up. How many of you are right 93-96% of the time and get publicly destroyed for it.

As a guy with a meteorology degree from MSU who is currently a school teacher in a rural county in AL, trust me, it is 100% of the time better to be safe than sorry so we don't end up like two weeks ago where tens of thousands in the Southeast had to abandon their cars and walk home. They may get it wrong, but be happy they were wrong on the good side and not wrong where you got 1/2 inch of rain, 2 inches of snow and lost power for 4 days.

[MSUDawg4Life]

Better safe than sorry. I'd rather have schools closed unnecessarily than have one person die trying to drive on icy roads.

It's easy to whine and complain about being inconvenienced when the forecast is not exactly correct. But, a couple of weeks ago the forecast was right and people died. I'm sure there a families out there right now who wouldn't mind being inconvenienced if they could have their family members back.

[godlluB]

So many people don't understand how difficult it is. For those that think in this day and age we can wait until the morning or we should all just wait and see what happens, I guarantee you would be cussing like a sailor at that decision had the temperature been 2 degree colder and you had 1/4 to 1/2 inch of freezing rain underneath 2-4 inches of snow last night and no decision had been made on whether or not your child goes to school. The best meteorologists in the world, US, and Southeast can totally blow a forecast, send thousands of people stranded on interstates, but some still think it's ok to just wait around and make last minute decisions on this kind of stuff.


I'm not in any way criticizing the meteorologists. I fully understand their challenges.

I'm complaining about the knee jerk reactionaries who panic way, way too early. What if I'd woken up to bad weather conditions and schools hadn't been closed? You know what, I'm ultimately responsible for the safety of my children. I can choose to keep them home if I think the wrong decision was made.

Again, we have the best communications system in the history of mankind. When a storm is expected overnight, we just don't have to cancel 22 hours before an event.

[dawg21]

There are a lot of idiots out flying on icy roads just like nothing is different. I remember a couple of years ago we had a decent snow on Hwy 25 south of Starkville, and I kept wondering why people were passing me....only to see them in a ditch down the road.

[MetEdDawg]

I'm not in any way criticizing the meteorologists. I fully understand their challenges.

I'm complaining about the knee jerk reactionaries who panic way, way too early. What if I'd woken up to bad weather conditions and schools hadn't been closed? You know what, I'm ultimately responsible for the safety of my children. I can choose to keep them home if I think the wrong decision was made.

Again, we have the best communications system in the history of mankind. When a storm is expected overnight, we just don't have to cancel 22 hours before an event.

The problem is that if you change it, you open up problems for when an event happens at 3 AM, or what about 8 AM, or 11 AM, 4 PM. All of these events have so many factors that have to be weighed that you have to do it the night before. Do we keep schools open and serve lunch so we can count the day instead of having to make it up? Do we not serve at all? Where do the people who go to my school live? Northern and southern parts where some may get nothing and a few will get ice? What about the type of community I live in? Do the parents mostly work 8-5? Am I more rural and in poverty where a lot of parents work 2 or 3 jobs? How does that affect those parents and getting other kids to day care or school or other family members? What about teachers driving home? A lot of the teachers at my school that I teach with, including myself, don't even live in the county we teach in. So the county I teach in has a Winter Weather Advisory, but the county east of us has an Ice Storm Warning and the county west of us has no warning at all. But just how many is too many to cancel school? If 5 teachers can't make it and 75 students can't make it, do we just say we have school today and see if they can make it? Well if we do close schools and no state of emergency is declared and we have to make this day up, where to we put it? Do we miss Spring Break? Delay graduation for seniors? If teachers get stuck at school because the wrong decision is made, do we compensate them for the time they spend at school? Do we have enough food in the school to risk it just in case teachers and kids get stuck? What about buses? If it gets too bad during school can the buses get kids home? Do I risk it and just see what plays out? Some buses may be making their rounds at 5 AM because of how our county is laid out. So some kids may already be on the bus, but how do we tell them we have to get them back home with their parents already at work?

What if YOU make the wrong decision as a parent? You think the meteorologists have a pretty good handle on it, then boom. Surprise, the snow started two hours early and you are stranded at work or on the interstate while your kid is stranded at school for two days because the roads are iced over and you can't get to them. You could walk 6 or 7 miles, but it's 30 and icy outside. Could take you 5-6 hours to get there. Or you decide to keep your kid home. School is still in but your kid misses a test that day. Now your kid has to make it all up and will probably do worse because now they are behind and having to work extra to make it up.

Too many factors to make decisions an hour or two before school starts or weather events begin. And that's just a sample of what my superintendent has to go through. Rather be safe than sorry. We may just need to agree to disagree. I will never be convinced that waiting until the day of a winter storm event is a good idea for making school closure decisions unless it is 100% clear that it won't affect one single factor that is related to the operation of my school.

[Saltydog]

and realize you guys have a tough profession and your right way more than you're wrong.

[Mjoelner34]

You picked a hard, thankless profession there, Ref. Unless you live in San Diego where you don't even need to have meterologists. Just have the news anchor say at the end of the broadcast, "Oh by the way, sunny and 75 the rest of the week."

Except for May and June when it's "Oh by the way, cloudy/foggy and 75 the rest of the week. Due to May gray and June gloom".

[Goat Holder]

All I will say, is that I wish I could be in a position where I could get paid to be wrong.

My profession is hard too, but if I'm wrong, I pay for it with my job.

If meteorology is really more difficult to perform, then salaries should be adjusted to reflect it.

[starkvegasdawg]

All I will say, is that I wish I could be in a position where I could get paid to be wrong.

My profession is hard too, but if I'm wrong, I pay for it with my job.

If meteorology is really more difficult to perform, then salaries should be adjusted to reflect it.

I'm not anywhere close to being a meteorologist but I think what makes it so hard to forecast winter precipitation down here is everything has to be just perfect and it so rarely is. Up north they already know they are going to have the cold air in place so when a storm brings moisture then it doesn't take a neurosurgeon to predict the outcome. This far south it rarely gets below freezing for very long and even more rare it gets below freezing with a moisture laden atmosphere. It is just too hard to cool a humid airmass to below freezing here in MS because we are too far from the cold air source. That means that everything has to come together juuuuuust right for us to get snow. This time we were just a couple degrees off from their forecasts being dead on. It's hard to nail a forecast temp within 2-3 degrees. Almost impossible I would say.

[ckDOG]

Folks just tend to forget that, despite advances in tech, weather forecasting isn't anywhere close to a perfect system. There are simply too many variables that can't be directly observed/predicted to get anywhere close to a 100% reliable forecast - esp for icy vs not icy. There's a thin line there between drizzling and a royal frozen cluster ****.

Winter weather is one of those things where you just have to prep yourself with the latest info and assume the worst. I don't see why folks get pissy when the science gets it wrong or folks are on the cautious side. Nobody wants to be atlanta a couple weeks ago.

[MetEdDawg]

All I will say, is that I wish I could be in a position where I could get paid to be wrong.

My profession is hard too, but if I'm wrong, I pay for it with my job.

If meteorology is really more difficult to perform, then salaries should be adjusted to reflect it.

They are. TV meteorologists make way more than you think they do. The ones in the smallest TV markets still make more than many 10 year tenured teachers. Ones in the big time markets can make 6 figures. The NWS and SPC is government and the people that have been around for a while make 6 figures. Guys that head up an NWS office can make 125K+. As an Intern and a Forecaster at the NWS you can expect to make 40-90K depending on the market and years experience. It's a tough job and you get paid for it.

[TheRef]

All I will say, is that I wish I could be in a position where I could get paid to be wrong.

My profession is hard too, but if I'm wrong, I pay for it with my job.

If meteorology is really more difficult to perform, then salaries should be adjusted to reflect it.

I actually have a very good response to this. Let's try this on for size for you.

You have to forecast something that is constantly changing. When you get your data that is required, it has already changed. By the time you get your models done that are your best tool to determine what will happen, 1 hour has passed. You can't see the changes. The data you receive is only taken every 12 hours, sometimes more time is elapsed. Our techniques for getting data are flawed by nature. The amount of assumptions that are made in order to give a halfway decent forecast are enormous. Add in the fact that most Meteorologists are working 12 hour shifts and aren't paid well at all because the Government/public doesn't realize the impact that they have on our everyday lives, and you have a ticking time bomb waiting to go in every single Meteorologist that you see on air and in the crowd. Want to know why Meteorologists aren't fired every time they get something wrong? Because who the hell wants to have that shitty of job security.

I'm sorry I've gone on these rants, but I'm damn sick and tired of hearing the same crap thrown at Meteorologists whenever stuff like this happens. So unless your job involves public safety on a daily basis, you don't know what Meteorologists go through. Good day Sir.

[notsofarawaydawg]

I understand your frustration completely. I'm sorry that it didn't turn out quite like everyone wanted/hoped. Conditions changed, forecasts were made and forecasts were busted. This whole system has been frustrating to watch and to forecast. You could literally see your forecast die in front of you. But you have to think of the flip-side of the coin for us. If we would have said, "It's going to just be raining the whole time, no chance for wintry precipitation," then it ends up icing over roads and people are injured/killed we take it the hardest. James Spann who is quite possibly the best severe weather forecaster in the business broke down on air apologizing over the last event. You don't think it hurts to see people injured because of your forecast? Meteorologists want their forecasts to save lives and when they hear that someone has died on their watch, depression is a real thing. We study events, we try to make our forecast techniques better in order to make a better forecast. We have meetings, symposiums, and collaborations in order to check in on each other and to try to make each other better. I swear, if you ask your local Meteorologist what a great day would be in their mind, it would be a severe weather event where there is no damage and no one is injured/killed. Why? Because that means that what they did mattered and that people were saved. I know some Meteorologists were up over 24 hours watching and forecasting this event. It's not fun.

I truly appreciate the people in your profession and the length you go to in order that we can stay safe during severe/inclement weather conditions. Some people just gonna fuss when they are inconvenienced. You are appreciated by the majority of humans.

[MetEdDawg]

I actually have a very good response to this. Let's try this on for size for you.

You have to forecast something that is constantly changing. When you get your data that is required, it has already changed. By the time you get your models done that are your best tool to determine what will happen, 1 hour has passed. You can't see the changes. The data you receive is only taken every 12 hours, sometimes more time is elapsed. Our techniques for getting data are flawed by nature. The amount of assumptions that are made in order to give a halfway decent forecast are enormous. Add in the fact that most Meteorologists are working 12 hour shifts and aren't paid well at all because the Government/public doesn't realize the impact that they have on our everyday lives, and you have a ticking time bomb waiting to go in every single Meteorologist that you see on air and in the crowd. Want to know why Meteorologists aren't fired every time they get something wrong? Because who the hell wants to have that shitty of job security.

I'm sorry I've gone on these rants, but I'm damn sick and tired of hearing the same crap thrown at Meteorologists whenever stuff like this happens. So unless your job involves public safety on a daily basis, you don't know what Meteorologists go through. Good day Sir.

You and me both Ref. We know how difficult it is. In the state of Alabama we get to put up 6 balloons a day. 2 in Bham, 2 in Mobile, and 2 in Huntsville. Everything else is extrapolated to fit what we THINK is going on. Hell, most cities don't even have official stations to measure temperature, humidity, cloud cover, anything like that. They are based off the nearest airport and extrapolated from there. So if you live in some rural locations in AL, your temperature could be extrapolated from an airport that is 50+ miles away from the actual location you are trying to measure.

Those outside the meteorology community have no clue how well meteorologists do with what little we have. Pick 200 spots in the entire US, then think about the fact that models have to extrapolate data for every other inch of US soil, then try to make a forecast on whether a freezing line will make it to a city like Birmingham where a difference of 5 miles (which no grided model can even resolve that small a space), could mean 2 inches of snow, 1/2 inch of ice, or 1 inch of cold rain. Missing a snow forecast by 40 miles like two weeks ago really isn't that bad to be honest. But look at the damage that was caused. I spent one month at the NWS and said you couldn't pay me enough to do this for a career.

[ckDOG]

All I will say, is that I wish I could be in a position where I could get paid to be wrong.

My profession is hard too, but if I'm wrong, I pay for it with my job.

If meteorology is really more difficult to perform, then salaries should be adjusted to reflect it.

I bet you are wrong more than you care to admit. The big difference bt you and the meteorologist is that you likely can fix many of your errors (can't fix a Friday forecast when it's Saturday) and your errors aren't broadcast to thousands of people to call you out on it.

[TheRef]

You and me both Ref. We know how difficult it is. In the state of Alabama we get to put up 6 balloons a day. 2 in Bham, 2 in Mobile, and 2 in Huntsville. Everything else is extrapolated to fit what we THINK is going on. Hell, most cities don't even have official stations to measure temperature, humidity, cloud cover, anything like that. They are based off the nearest airport and extrapolated from there. So if you live in some rural locations in AL, your temperature could be extrapolated from an airport that is 50+ miles away from the actual location you are trying to measure.

Those outside the meteorology community have no clue how well meteorologists do with what little we have. Pick 200 spots in the entire US, then think about the fact that models have to extrapolate data for every other inch of US soil, then try to make a forecast on whether a freezing line will make it to a city like Birmingham where a difference of 5 miles (which no grided model can even resolve that small a space), could mean 2 inches of snow, 1/2 inch of ice, or 1 inch of cold rain. Missing a snow forecast by 40 miles like two weeks ago really isn't that bad to be honest. But look at the damage that was caused. I spent one month at the NWS and said you couldn't pay me enough to do this for a career.

Haha...you think AL is bad? Think about MS. You have Jackson then your nearest other launches are LR, B'ham, Shreveport, BR, and Mobile. Memphis doesn't even launch.

[Goat Holder]

Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Your data about salaries sort of contradicts MetEdDawg, but I get the picture. I'm not trying to hate or anything, so don't get all defensive (although it's pretty obvious this sort of thing hits a nerve, and that's understandable). I do sometimes wonder why there's so many 'cry wolf' moments then suddenly devastation comes and everyone whiffs. I guess maybe I'd like to see some consistency more than anything.

And look....I understand more than you know about clients not understanding what I really do and the value I provide for them. That's LIFE, for everybody, and meteorologists aren't special in that way. Just want to be crystal clear on that aspect.

[Goat Holder]

Probably.

[MetEdDawg]

Haha...you think AL is bad? Think about MS. You have Jackson then your nearest other launches are LR, B'ham, Shreveport, BR, and Mobile. Memphis doesn't even launch.

I've always said MS has the absolute worst combination of weather/resources at their disposal to be able to forecast that weather. It's terrible that there are so many events like today and the severe stuff that we can't even get another balloon launch in the entire state of MS. It's ridiculous. People wonder why forecasts get busted so often in the Deep South? You get 8 total daily balloon launches between MS and AL. So if you live in Tupelo, the closest real time data you can get is either from Bham, Jackson, or Huntsville. Everything else is extrapolated. So good luck nailing that freezing line on the money.

[TheRef]

I've always said MS has the absolute worst combination of weather/resources at their disposal to be able to forecast that weather. It's terrible that there are so many events like today and the severe stuff that we can't even get another balloon launch in the entire state of MS. It's ridiculous. People wonder why forecasts get busted so often in the Deep South? You get 8 total daily balloon launches between MS and AL. So if you live in Tupelo, the closest real time data you can get is either from Bham, Jackson, or Huntsville. Everything else is extrapolated. So good luck nailing that freezing line on the money.

The South sucks in general, weather-wise. So frustrating. So so frustrating.

[Goat Holder]

Let me add to this....that is actually pretty impressive that they can somewhat accurately see 10 days out. So I have respect for our weather forecasting in this country, for sure. Maybe it's the fear-mongering that gets me more than anything.

[MetEdDawg]

Let me add to this....that is actually pretty impressive that they can somewhat accurately see 10 days out. So I have respect for our weather forecasting in this country, for sure. Maybe it's the fear-mongering that gets me more than anything.

It's because of the potential for what happened two weeks ago here in AL and over in GA is always a possibility if a meteorologist blows it. When you personally have family members like your 76 year old grandfather walking to his house in the snow/ice after leaving his car on the interstate, it makes you realize that it's way better for us to be fearful than to just see what happens and adjust accordingly because sometimes we just botch it horribly. Weather bites us in the ass more times than people think too. Hell, tv meteorologists say mid 60s for a high because we really aren't sure whether it's going to be 63 or 67 sometimes because of some many different factors.

But then an ice event like today and yesterday comes and we have to forecast whether a location will be 32 or 33 and that means the difference between freezing rain and cold rain. It's just so difficult to pinpoint the temperature at a location within one degree when the closest airport/station is 70 miles away. It's a tough job and we would need billions, if not trillions more dollars to actually do it correctly and that is not an exaggeration.

[LC Dawg]

When you have people like the mayor of Atlanta actually trying to shift blame from himself to meteorologists for the problems a couple of weeks ago you gain a better understanding of what a thankless job meteorology is. I would rather them and public officials err on the side of safety than spend the night in my car on the interstate.

[J-Dawg]

This is why meteorologists are the ones consulted on school closings and timings of events than your average Joe. Guys, I'm here to tell you, forecasting the weather events that include snow/sleet/freezing rain in the South is THE hardest thing to do and I would challenge anyone to spend a winter like this is a meteorologist's shoes.

So many people don't understand how difficult it is. For those that think in this day and age we can wait until the morning or we should all just wait and see what happens, I guarantee you would be cussing like a sailor at that decision had the temperature been 2 degree colder and you had 1/4 to 1/2 inch of freezing rain underneath 2-4 inches of snow last night and no decision had been made on whether or not your child goes to school. The best meteorologists in the world, US, and Southeast can totally blow a forecast, send thousands of people stranded on interstates, but some still think it's ok to just wait around and make last minute decisions on this kind of stuff.

Come on people. With these events, you literally can do everything right and be 100% wrong. When the tools you use to forecast give you wrong information, why would you want to wait until the morning on an event like this? That makes no sense guys. You can't get pissed at the meteorologists for blowing a forecast and you having to walk home, then get mad the next time when they caution you something similar could happen and it doesn't pan out.

And don't give me the "I wish I could get paid to be as wrong as they are". Think for a second why they are wrong so frequently, then think it you would rather change places with them. Better to be safe than sorry guys. People can't make decisions on work, children, and other obligations in today's world at 5 AM. There is too much in play in terms of parents going to work, school employees having to be at school, and having to make plans on where to send children if you have to go to work and your children don't have to go to school. We have so much farther to advance in meteorology it isn't even funny. The best in the world were brought to their knees two weeks ago and we still have no idea why the tools we use to forecast can't get it right. It is very rare that a meteorologist totally nails a forecast like this, so most of the time they get hammered. So you can be right 355-360 days out of 365, and get destroyed publicly for those 5-10 days you mess up. How many of you are right 93-96% of the time and get publicly destroyed for it.

As a guy with a meteorology degree from MSU who is currently a school teacher in a rural county in AL, trust me, it is 100% of the time better to be safe than sorry so we don't end up like two weeks ago where tens of thousands in the Southeast had to abandon their cars and walk home. They may get it wrong, but be happy they were wrong on the good side and not wrong where you got 1/2 inch of rain, 2 inches of snow and lost power for 4 days.


Your first paragraph is why I have a meteorology degree, but have never held a job in the field. I've found my talents are much more applicable in a field where I don't get blasted 24/7/365.


.....And I just wasn't very good at it.

[Goat Holder]

My last question then.....why didn't they? They erred on caution THIS time, but not 2 weeks ago?

[TheRef]

My last question then.....why didn't they? They erred on caution THIS time, but not 2 weeks ago?

Models were definitely under-achieving with that storm. Even though the models kept trending it more and more North, we were never really sure of what was going to happen. The track means everything in those coastal Low situations. About 50 miles of distance can be the difference between it just being really cold and rainy or having the problems we had with it. Situations didn't turn out the way that most thought and we ended up with that. This time models were indicating that we were going to get a fairly significant event, the University had been burned too many times before with this cold and didn't want to be burned again by it.

[Mjoelner34]

REF, check your inbox.

[MetEdDawg]

My last question then.....why didn't they? They erred on caution THIS time, but not 2 weeks ago?

More of a snow event the first time. 99% of the time in AL and GA, specifically central AL and central GA, we don't get snow below 27-28 degrees. That's just very difficult because those kinds of conditions just aren't generated down here. Well models had predicted temps around 27-28 degrees with a little snow in the forecast. Nothing major and something that could be handled with caution from everyone. For Bham they had a dusting listed and no big deal. Use caution and we will be fine. But by the time they realized what was going on when the event started, the temp in Bham was 23 and there was already 1/2 inch of snow on the ground and not one bit of it was melting. Not one model had that predicted, not one meteorologist had that extent predicted, and everyone was caught off guard including every reputable meteorologist. It was the worst kind of scenario where every tool that is used failed miserably and no one had a chance to predict it.

So the NWS, the best forecasters we have, guys like Spann and a few others, missed the snowfall total by around 500-600% because some locations in the Bham Metro got 3 inches when less than 1/2 inch was predicted. Totally different scenario that was handled poorly by every tool we use as meteorologists. It was a type of situation that just doesn't happen very often and in meteorology, we don't have fail safes that protect us in scenarios we aren't familiar with. That's where the botched forecast came into play and it was a disaster for thousands of people.

[Goat Holder]

Thanks. It's all good though, if people would take more a common sense approach to things and prepare as well as possible with the information they DO have from weathermen....maybe it wouldn't have been so bad. People should take advice, make their own decisions and live with those decisions.....instead of blaming everybody else who's job really is there to help.

[J-Dawg]

Let me add to this....that is actually pretty impressive that they can somewhat accurately see 10 days out. So I have respect for our weather forecasting in this country, for sure. Maybe it's the fear-mongering that gets me more than anything.

"Real" meteorologists would agree with you on the "fear-mongering" as well. That is portrayed by the mainstream media, which blows EVERYTHING out of the water. You can thank the constant dumbing-down and politicization of The Weather Channel for that. They sensationalize things that don't need sensationalization.

[J-Dawg]

My last question then.....why didn't they? They erred on caution THIS time, but not 2 weeks ago?

Because, statistically speaking, the possibility of major even were much greater THIS time that a couple of weeks ago. The Atlanta-Birmingham storm was blown by everything from statistical models to the most experienced forecasters. Hard to err on the side of caution when the odds don't seem that great to anyone.

This time around, the odds were higher, yet a degree or two made all the difference.

The smaller odds beat the greater odds.

[Maroonthirteen]

Im officially an old man.....

Back in my days, you rode bikes wearing nothing but a tshirt shorts and shoes. You played baseball...OUTSIDE! With nothing but a ball cap on my head! Naw, I didn't have to wear a hockey mask to play baseball. Oh, and by the way, we didn't get out of school until the snow and ice was on the ground.......Guess what?! My old @$$ is still here to tell you about it.

I heard all about I55 being icey and dangerous on tv and radio this am. My commute into New Jack City was the same speed and amount of time as it would have been on July 1.