Possible Winter Storm Monday/Tuesday

[TheRef]

Okay, as many of you have noticed there is a strong possibility of wintry precip early on this week. The particular time frame for our area is late Monday night into Tuesday morning. For the Highway 82 corridor it will mainly be a wintry mix with sleet/freezing rain. Possible accumulations of 1" in some places. Memphis area is looking more like snow. Possibly 9 hours of snowfall if the models verify. The steepest angle for wintry precipitation is about a straight line from Vicksburg to Starkville and that will most likely be your freezing line which will divide the rain/freezing rain precipitation. Tomorrow we should have as good of an idea for what kind of precipitation we will have. I'm not saying panic, but if you live from Highway 82 corridor to the north, I would prepare.
On a separate note, this is kinda weird with this happening near the 20th anniversary of the 1994 Ice Storm. I'm not saying that this will be the same magnitude of '94 but it will certainly be one of the first times we have gotten ice in the 82 corridor in a while (4-5 years if I remember correctly).

[dogshiek]

***I suddenly have an urge to buy milk and bread.***

[Saltydog]

Was speaking with a buddy of mine yesterday and we were discussing a major snow/ice storm here in North Ms sometime in the mid 80's. I want to say it was '85 but he disagrees with me. I was still in HS but my sister was at State at the time and it was somewhere between '83 and '86 if I'm not mistaken and Starkville was hit hard but in Monroe County we had almost 4 to 5 inches of mostly ice here. Worst winter storm I ever remember in these parts. Can you advise the year?

[Joe Schmedlap]

I believe that was winter 1984. I seem to remember driving from Columbus to Greenville on a very icy Hwy 82 when that happened.

[TheRef]

Was speaking with a buddy of mine yesterday and we were discussing a major snow/ice storm here in North Ms sometime in the mid 80's. I want to say it was '85 but he disagrees with me. I was still in HS but my sister was at State at the time and it was somewhere between '83 and '86 if I'm not mistaken and Starkville was hit hard but in Monroe County we had almost 4 to 5 inches of mostly ice here. Worst winter storm I ever remember in these parts. Can you advise the year?

I'm not exactly sure when that storm was. That was before my time. I was only 2 when the '94 Ice Storm occurred.

[spiritual_machine2005]

I lived through the Ice Storm of '94. It was glorious!

[Mjoelner34]

Was speaking with a buddy of mine yesterday and we were discussing a major snow/ice storm here in North Ms sometime in the mid 80's. I want to say it was '85 but he disagrees with me. I was still in HS but my sister was at State at the time and it was somewhere between '83 and '86 if I'm not mistaken and Starkville was hit hard but in Monroe County we had almost 4 to 5 inches of mostly ice here. Worst winter storm I ever remember in these parts. Can you advise the year?

Not The Ref but I remember a bad one here in the fall of '87. I also remember it snowed April Fool's night in '87.

[TheRef]

If anyone wants to, I can do an in-depth hangout briefing around 5:00 PM. I'll post the link soon.

[Mjoelner34]

Sure! I need to know if I can stay up late tomorrow night and throw a few back or if I need to get ready to go to work at 6am Tuesday.

[Cowbells]

Salty dog, I think you may be referring to December 1979. I was in high school at the time over in the Arkansas delta and remember having no electricity for more than a week.

Edited to say it might have been the first of January 1980. Just recall it was right after Christmas.

[DownwardDawg]

Salty dog, I think you may be referring to December 1979. I was in high school at the time over in the Arkansas delta and remember having no electricity for more than a week.

Edited to say it might have been the first of January 1980. Just recall it was right after Christmas.

Same Cowbells from Bulldawgs 24/7?

[Cowbells]

No, sorry

[Bothrops]

I remember the '94 ice storm when a large portion of the Ross Barnett Reservoir froze over. Temps got into the single digits for a few days.

[TheRef]

Okay. Here is the link if anyone wants to watch me go through a forecast and discuss the in-depth analysis for this system. I'll be beginning shortly, until then I can talk small stuff.
https://plus.google.com/hangouts/_/76cpjso5uh9h0ql4ngfcu3ploc?hl=en

[TheRef]

Five minute warning on the Google+ hangout concerning the latest forecast.

[DLGDawg]

Was speaking with a buddy of mine yesterday and we were discussing a major snow/ice storm here in North Ms sometime in the mid 80's. I want to say it was '85 but he disagrees with me. I was still in HS but my sister was at State at the time and it was somewhere between '83 and '86 if I'm not mistaken and Starkville was hit hard but in Monroe County we had almost 4 to 5 inches of mostly ice here. Worst winter storm I ever remember in these parts. Can you advise the year?

Salty I'm pretty sure spot on. It was the winter of 85/86. I Was a senior in high school.
They let school out 5 min early lol. Getting home was a mess. We had thunder snow at Cumberland high school.

[Saltydog]

Worst freezing rain I've ever seen til this day and much worse than the storm of '94 that everyone is referencing........

[M.Fillmore]

Graphics are great. The audio works about 5 seconds every three minutes.
I wish I could hear you. Sorry.

[DLGDawg]

Worst freezing rain I've ever seen til this day and much worse than the storm of '94 that everyone is referencing........
Rite there at the school the sky turned frickin green for a short period.

[TheRef]

Graphics are great. The audio works about 5 seconds every three minutes.
I wish I could hear you. Sorry.

Dangit....well the basic gist of it is that the models are suggesting the snow to stop just south of Memphis. From that line to about the Highway 82 corridor you can expect sleet or freezing rain (mostly freezing rain). Anything south of highway 82 you can expect mostly rain with MAYBE some freezing rain mixed in.

ETA: I will work on the audio problems and hopefully have myself working more steadily for the next time I do this. Quick poll: Who would be interested in a weekly weather briefing?

[TheRef]

PSA: Per multiple sources on social media, bread and milk is being bought up quickly around the possibly affected areas. Do your shopping now.

[Saltydog]

a whole week of school. I'm thinking this was in January of '85.

[M.Fillmore]

I would be interested in a briefing when odd weather occurs.

Your graphics seemed to indicate the freezing rain would stop around the Jackson area. How much freezing rain, if any, in Jackson? When and how long would it last?

[TheRef]

I would be interested in a briefing when odd weather occurs.

Your graphics seemed to indicate the freezing rain would stop around the Jackson area. How much freezing rain, if any, in Jackson? When and how long would it last?

If you had any freezing rain it would be not enough to contribute to a stop in life as we know it. I'm not really sure how long it would last, to be honest. It would probably stop mid-morning with very slight accumulation if any. I just don't see Jackson getting any frozen precipitation.

ETA: I have solved the audio problem and next time I do this I will make sure everything is working beforehand.

[DownwardDawg]

No, sorry

Don't be sorry. Rejoice!

[DLGDawg]

a whole week of school. I'm thinking this was in January of '85.

Yep. Stayed out awhile.
In our area, the county roads stayed icy foeever in shady areas. They were dangerous.
Would go from pure muddy gravel road to ice.

[starkvegasdawg]

So I see the official NWS graphic still has Starkville in the elevated threat area but the forecast is for only around a tenth of an inch of ice and less than an inch of sleet and snow. Do you think the graphic gets changed to match the forecast or the forecast to match the graphic?

[Dawgowar]

a whole week of school. I'm thinking this was in January of '85.

It was.

Warning...old man memory lane follows:

My senior year. Best four months of my Academic life. Full ride ROTC Scholly for the last two years. Had one semester left of all electives...13 easy hours...all Tuesday and Thursday...Rotc, Anthropology, ECON, and wait for it Speed Reading. Then a 1 hour class in etiquette on Wednesdays - still have the transcript. How my liver survived that week is beyond me. An elderly friend of my grandmother, a whisky drinker only, held a business meeting and bought five cases of A&P Brand Beer - called P&Q Beer (we nicknamed it Puke and Quiver) - he gave me 4 and a half cases of it. Had a pile of various rejected free booze as well...all mine....it snowed...from the time the first scrolling announcement about class closing went across the television screen until Sunday was a nonstop party.

Reference the rejected booze of the elderly....Creme De Menthe and Vodka does NOT make a festive pre-St Paddy's Day drink. You may think it does after drinking A&P Beer but it does not.


1980 era DG's had no sense of humor about being hit with snowballs. None whatsoever. Thank goodness for ski masks and the lack of cell phones in those days. Run, stumble, barf...run, stumble barf.





Ah, Starkville winters.

[Saltydog]

that week........Ah, good times........

[TheRef]

So I see the official NWS graphic still has Starkville in the elevated threat area but the forecast is for only around a tenth of an inch of ice and less than an inch of sleet and snow. Do you think the graphic gets changed to match the forecast or the forecast to match the graphic?

I think the forecast changes.

[War Machine Dawg]

Ref, what's the projection for Memphis/Desoto County? We getting blasted?

[TheRef]

Ref, what's the projection for Memphis/Desoto County? We getting blasted?

Snow. A couple of inches.

[Percho]

Was speaking with a buddy of mine yesterday and we were discussing a major snow/ice storm here in North Ms sometime in the mid 80's. I want to say it was '85 but he disagrees with me. I was still in HS but my sister was at State at the time and it was somewhere between '83 and '86 if I'm not mistaken and Starkville was hit hard but in Monroe County we had almost 4 to 5 inches of mostly ice here. Worst winter storm I ever remember in these parts. Can you advise the year?


My daughter was born in Oct of 84 and I believe you are refering to the storm just after the first of the year in 85. My wife left work at Baptist Hospital Lamar unit at 11am and got home in Southaven at 9PM

[bully99]

Ref, I get a laugh out of weather people who say its"a complicated forecast" ,they should just say its our best guess.

[Percho]

Did not read all before posting. You are right Jan 85

[TheRef]

Ref, I get a laugh out of weather people who say its"a complicated forecast" ,they should just say its our best guess.

You don't understand. This thing is possibly more complicated than the January system that 17'd Birmingham and Atlanta. This is seriously one of the most F'd up systems I've seen in a while. This thing is changing almost every hour on what it wants to do.

[TheRef]

Okay. A new run of models are done, who would be open to me going through a forecast with them live?

[Belegal]

What's up for booneville in your forecast?

[breazy]

im interested REF, also tell me bout jackson tn, snow???

[TheRef]

What's up for booneville in your forecast?

Booneville most likely will be significant snow. Possibly >2" accumulation. May affect travel with that amount.

[TheRef]

im interested REF, also tell me bout jackson tn, snow???

Jackson, TN will be snow. <2" accumulation.

[breazy]

boo im tired of the pretty white stuff missing us and it just being bone chillingly cold...Can you tell me about martin tn? my guess is less than jackson lol

[TheRef]

boo im tired of the pretty white stuff missing us and it just being bone chillingly cold...Can you tell me about martin tn? my guess is less than jackson lol

< .5"

[spiritual_machine2005]

Hows it looking for Desoto county now?

[Mjoelner34]

What about the golden triangle?

[I seen it dawg]

North Louisiana?

[TheRef]

Desoto County ~1" accumulation
GTR ~.5" freezing rain
What part of N LA?

[Will James]

GTR ~.5" freezing rain?

Will that shut the roads and towns down?

[NBdawg17]

Panola county? Thanks for doing this

[TheRef]

Panola county? Thanks for doing this

Panola county will be a snow/ice mix.

[TheRef]

Will that shut the roads and towns down?

Roads are a real possibility to be dangerous. Won't know more until tomorrow most likely for road condition possibilities. I wouldn't be surprised to see classes cancelled for Tuesday if the models verify.

[state66]

so looking at >2inches in the memphis area ref?

[TheRef]

so looking at >2inches in the memphis area ref?

You're actually looking at < 2" in Memphis area. Your main area of snowfall will be more to the South.

[TheRef]

I will be doing another Google+ hangout detailing my forecast later on tonight (~10:20 PM) if anyone is interested. It'll be done dually on Google+ and Youtube so that you don't have to have a Google+ account to watch. I will post the link whenever I set everything up.

[DownwardDawg]

I will be doing another Google+ hangout detailing my forecast later on tonight (~10:20 PM) if anyone is interested. It'll be done dually on Google+ and Youtube so that you don't have to have a Google+ account to watch. I will post the link whenever I set everything up.

You posting the link on this thread?

[TheRef]

You can watch here
Youtube: http://youtu.be/tNHAZsrVq04
Google+: https://plus.google.com/events/cklk2i4fdvpta0jbm63d8iu4fgs

[DownwardDawg]

Awesome! Thanks

[TheRef]

Everything will be done LIVE. But the Youtube post will give you the replay of it if you click on it after I have gone off-air so that you won't miss any of the action if you come in afterwards or come in the middle and missed the first part.

[Cowbells]

You can watch here
Youtube: http://youtu.be/tNHAZsrVq04
Google+: https://plus.google.com/events/cklk2i4fdvpta0jbm63d8iu4fgs


I would be interested in your thoughts on the Hwy 82 corridor....... Greenwood, Winona, etc.

[TheRef]

I would be interested in your thoughts on the Hwy 82 corridor....... Greenwood, Winona, etc.

Highway 82 corridor will be the main focus of my forecast due to that being both where I am currently and where my family is. Plus it's the most fun place to look at right now for this system.

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks for the effort. Audio is unbearable.

[TheRef]

Thanks for the effort. Audio is unbearable.

I'm sorry. I will have to work on this a LOT more and maybe determine whether it's an equipment issue or a Google issue. I apologize for the poor quality that I've been putting out on this and I will just stick to text forecasts for the time being.

ETA: This is a Google issue and I'm not happy. I will just stop doing these broadcasts and stick to text. I apologize once again. I could tell that the audio was slowly fading out as the broadcast went on, I apologize. I'm fighting mad at Google for this so I'm not going to try and do this anymore.

[Cowbells]

I tried to watch too. Would still love to hear your thoughts on Hwy 82 .... Greenwood, Winona, etc

[TheRef]

I tried to watch too. Would still love to hear your thoughts on Hwy 82 .... Greenwood, Winona, etc

Highway 82 corridor will be mostly freezing rain. Delta region will be around .2" of accumulation and steadily increasing to around .5" as you move across 82 to the GTR.

[DownwardDawg]

I'm sorry. I will have to work on this a LOT more and maybe determine whether it's an equipment issue or a Google issue. I apologize for the poor quality that I've been putting out on this and I will just stick to text forecasts for the time being.

ETA: This is a Google issue and I'm not happy. I will just stop doing these broadcasts and stick to text. I apologize once again. I could tell that the audio was slowly fading out as the broadcast went on, I apologize. I'm fighting mad at Google for this so I'm not going to try and do this anymore.

It started out clear and went downhill fast. I could hear the 1st 30 seconds or so. Again, thanks for your forecasts. We appreciate it!

[Cowbells]

Highway 82 corridor will be mostly freezing rain. Delta region will be around .2" of accumulation and steadily increasing to around .5" as you move across 82 to the GTR.

Thanks! And I hope you figure out your audio problem easy enough so you can broadcast ..... Appreciate your efforts.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks! And I hope you figure out your audio problem easy enough so you can broadcast ..... Appreciate your efforts.
It's that damn Sasquatch again. First he ate all the kids' lunches, then he screwed up the mobile view of the site a while, and now he is messing up ref's live forecasts. He doesn't want us to know that he's getting ms ready for a visit from his cousin yeti.

[DownwardDawg]

It's that damn Sasquatch again. First he ate all the kids' lunches, then he screwed up the mobile view of the site a while, and now he is messing up ref's live forecasts. He doesn't want us to know that he's getting ms ready for a visit from his cousin yeti.

What's the sasquatch deal? I haven't seen a sasquatch on here! Damn I miss everything!

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the sasquatch deal? I haven't seen a sasquatch on here! Damn I miss everything!

There hasn't been. When I read the post on the live forecast problems and their unknown causes it reminded me of that scene in Billy Madison where they're wondering who ate all the kids' lunches and the old woman said it was that damn Sasquatch that did it. Just an obscure movie reference on my part.

[mstatefan91]

So what's the outlook this morning Ref?

[TheRef]

So what's the outlook this morning Ref?

GFS is back to dominating while the NAM is on drugs.

[spiritual_machine2005]

I wish the weather would make up its damn mind! I teach in Desoto County and I selfishly want a day off to play in the snow!

[mstatefan91]

GFS is back to dominating while the NAM is on drugs.

Well alright then

I guess what I meant to ask is what can I expect for the Starkville area in the morning?

Need to know whether or not to get to the grocery store to get a few things if campus will be closed (I'm on a meal plan).

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Thanks for the effort, hopefully Google will get their shit together...What's it looking like on I-20 between Jackson and Vicksburg?

[NewTweederEndzoneDance]

I lived through the Ice Storm of '94. It was glorious!

Not sure glorious is the way I'd describe that. We lost power early, and my entire extended family had to spend several days camped out at my grandparents, who had a generator. When we got back home, we walked it to find that a monster tree branch had fallen and gone all the way through the roof and ceiling and was lodged about 2 inches above my sister's bed right where she would have been laying if we'd been there. Scary to think about.

[starkvegasdawg]

Not sure glorious is the way I'd describe that. We lost power early, and my entire extended family had to spend several days camped out at my grandparents, who had a generator. When we got back home, we walked it to find that a monster tree branch had fallen and gone all the way through the roof and ceiling and was lodged about 2 inches above my sister's bed right where she would have been laying if we'd been there. Scary to think about.

I am sure that quote was all in context. During the spring severe weather season I have started storm chasing. I will get some weird looks and comments when say I am excited there is supposed to severe weather coming up on such and such a day including tornadoes. Been asked more than once how I can look forward to something that can destroy property and kill people. And there is no real cut and dry answer. Obviously, I don't want anybody to get hurt or have their home destroyed. But, at the same time I can't deny my excitement level goes through the roof when I see a forecast including tornadoes. I want to see them but I want to see them out in the middle of nowhere. Storm junkies like me love seeing severe weather in all its different forms. We hate the impacts it has on people but still love to see it if that makes sense.

[NewTweederEndzoneDance]

I am sure that quote was all in context. During the spring severe weather season I have started storm chasing. I will get some weird looks and comments when say I am excited there is supposed to severe weather coming up on such and such a day including tornadoes. Been asked more than once how I can look forward to something that can destroy property and kill people. And there is no real cut and dry answer. Obviously, I don't want anybody to get hurt or have their home destroyed. But, at the same time I can't deny my excitement level goes through the roof when I see a forecast including tornadoes. I want to see them but I want to see them out in the middle of nowhere. Storm junkies like me love seeing severe weather in all its different forms. We hate the impacts it has on people but still love to see it if that makes sense.

Yeah, I pretty much feel the same way you do about storms and mother nature. It fascinates me for some reason. My post was not meant to be a rebuke of anything, and I apologize if it came across that way. Just sharing my memories of that ice storm.

[defiantdog]

Hey Ref, any word on Birmingham this time around? I really don't feel like walking home from work again lol.

[Will James]

Bump for the evening update. When/Where/How bad is it going to be?

Chances campus and GTR stays closed down Wednesday?

[Technetium]

Random question: Can anyone comment on which model(s) are typically used by the various weather sites? I typically use NOAA, but I sometimes cross-reference weather.com, etc., and many times the forecasts are noticeably different. For example, here in NC, NOAA is forecasts 1-2 inches of snow, while weather.com reports 2-4 inches. Would love to know if certain websites depend on specific models, or if there is some subjectivity to how they interpret data from multiple models.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Dont drive if you are in the decatur al area

[starkvegasdawg]

Storm looks to be a bust in Starkvegas. There is a slight ice glaze on elevated objects but everything appears fine otherwise. Can't speak for any bridges, though, since I haven't moved from in front of the fireplace this morning.

[TheRef]

Storm looks to be a bust in Starkvegas. There is a slight ice glaze on elevated objects but everything appears fine otherwise. Can't speak for any bridges, though, since I haven't moved from in front of the fireplace this morning.

The moisture stayed away from the cold. The moisture focused itself over the melting region and came down only as rain. We really dodged a bullet with this and yes there is a slight glaze and that's about it.

[Will James]

The moisture stayed away from the cold. The moisture focused itself over the melting region and came down only as rain. We really dodged a bullet with this and yes there is a slight glaze and that's about it.

Is it over or possible chance for tonight too?

[TheRef]

Is it over or possible chance for tonight too?

There is a second wave of energy coming through later on today. I haven't been able to really get a good look at the models yet so I'm just going to go with NWS right now and they are saying only rain tonight so we are done.

[mstatefan91]

What's it look like for tonight going into tomorrow morning for Starkville?

[TheRef]

What's it look like for tonight going into tomorrow morning for Starkville?

Rain.....

[mstatefan91]

Rain.....

Ok I was just wondering cause the weather channel is showing rain/freezing rain from 2-5 am and then rain/snow from 8am-11am and again from 2-5pm. Then snow showers from 5pm to 11pm.

[TheRef]

Ok I was just wondering cause the weather channel is showing rain/freezing rain from 2-5 am and then rain/snow from 8am-11am and again from 2-5pm. Then snow showers from 5pm to 11pm.

*facepalm* Sometimes I hate TWC, this is one of those times. I just think that we're going to be too warm for freezing rain. We MAY have a snow/rain mix but it's very unlikely.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

*facepalm* Sometimes I hate TWC, this is one of those times. I just think that we're going to be too warm for freezing rain. We MAY have a snow/rain mix but it's very unlikely.

Can you give an outlook for Decatur AL, theyre calling for 3-5 inches tonight and tomorrow. Dont want to spend the night at the office.

[TheRef]

Can you give an outlook for Decatur AL, theyre calling for 3-5 inches tonight and tomorrow. Dont want to spend the night at the office.

That's correct, they are calling for 3-5 inches of Snow/Sleet tonight and tomorrow and I will have to agree with them.

[starkvegasdawg]

*facepalm* Sometimes I hate TWC, this is one of those times. I just think that we're going to be too warm for freezing rain. We MAY have a snow/rain mix but it's very unlikely.

I agree with you about the temps but the NWS is calling for 1-2" of snow tomorrow. Something about the column cooling causing the rain to transition over to snow. I know it can snow above freezing but accumulating at 36 makes me scratch my head.

[TheRef]

I agree with you about the temps but the NWS is calling for 1-2" of snow tomorrow. Something about the column cooling causing the rain to transition over to snow. I know it can snow above freezing but accumulating at 36 makes me scratch my head.

I don't even understand.....

[defiantdog]

Ref, what do you think about the Birmingham area tonight or tomorrow? TWC, WeatherUnderground, and AccuWeather are all saying different things?

[TheRef]

Ref, what do you think about the Birmingham area tonight or tomorrow? TWC, WeatherUnderground, and AccuWeather are all saying different things?

To be honest with you, I haven't looked at anything as far as models are concerned. So I'm just trusting what NWS has out for now. I'll look at all the models and give yall a good idea of what to expect with this second energy wave around 3 or so.

[defiantdog]

To be honest with you, I haven't looked at anything as far as models are concerned. So I'm just trusting what NWS has out for now. I'll look at all the models and give yall a good idea of what to expect with this second energy wave around 3 or so.
Appreciate it man.... it's just odd having to throw my truck in 4-wheel high just to get to work lol

[DownwardDawg]

Appreciate it man.... it's just odd having to throw my truck in 4-wheel high just to get to work lol

That is "different". Two weeks ago during the Snowpocalpsye is the first time I think I've ever been in 4WD on pavement. It was certainly different.