Ok weather gurus

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the skinny on this approaching winter storm. Are my two kids here in starkvegas going to be some happy campers by Tuesday morning?

[TheRef]

What's the skinny on this approaching winter storm. Are my two kids here in starkvegas going to be some happy campers by Tuesday morning?

Too early to tell, truthfully. It is looking like a snowy morning for Tuesday. Amounts are unknown.

[MSUMatt]

I'm more curious at why Reed Timmer was talking about bringing the dominator to MS this weekend to chase.

[Will James]

What time is the precipitation going to start Mon/Tues?

Golden Triangle region

[TheRef]

What time is the precipitation going to start Mon/Tues?

Golden Triangle region

I'm thinking Monday night into Tuesday morning.

[Todd4State]

I live in Jackson. Just let me know if I need to get up at 4 AM to get to work by 8 AM.

[TheRef]

I live in Jackson. Just let me know if I need to get up at 4 AM to get to work by 8 AM.
Jackson most likely is the rain/mix line.

[Tough Dawg]

@Ref....how about the Memphis area on Monday?

[TheRef]

@Ref....how about the Memphis area on Monday?

Believe it or not, Memphis may actually be TOO cold for any precip.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm more curious at why Reed Timmer was talking about bringing the dominator to MS this weekend to chase.

I know he has work done on the dominator in tupelo. I think they are built there. I did see a tweet he was involved in last night saying some weather models were showing a tornado outbreak for next Saturday. Any chance one of those is what you have in mind?

[MetEdDawg]

Believe it or not, Memphis may actually be TOO cold for any precip.

The last NAM output I saw (18Z today) showed 9+ inches for Memphis. They've already got a Winter Storm Watch up for them so I would expect them to be right in the line of fire. NWS is printing 4 inches for Memphis 48+ hours out and I imagine that total is going to go up as the event gets closer.

[Statecoachingblows**]

And here I sit thanking the good lord above for the mid 60s this week!

[gtowndawg]

Believe it or not, Memphis may actually be TOO cold for any precip.

My wife's grandfather use to say it might be too cold to snow and for 18 years I've always thought that was BS. So it's true?

//my comeback was why does it snow in Antarctica then?

[Statecoachingblows**]

If its to cold to snow it should be to cold to work, go to school, or pay bills!

[MSUMatt]

I know he has work done on the dominator in tupelo. I think they are built there. I did see a tweet he was involved in last night saying some weather models were showing a tornado outbreak for next Saturday. Any chance one of those is what you have in mind?

Yeah. Just crazy how we can potentially have to severe weather outbreaks at different ends of the spectrum within the same week. Only in MS.

[DownwardDawg]

My wife's grandfather use to say it might be too cold to snow and for 18 years I've always thought that was BS. So it's true?

//my comeback was why does it snow in Antarctica then?

Pretty sure that's a myth huh?

-459 degrees F is apparently the "too cold to snow" temp.

[TheRef]

Pretty sure that's a myth huh?

-459 degrees F is apparently the "too cold to snow" temp.

Okay...too cold to get significant snow is what I meant. After you get colder than -20 degrees Celsius you start making sector plates instead of flakes. But I am wrong in thinking that Memphis will be too cold. I just don't want to make any calls right now.

[DownwardDawg]

Okay...too cold to get significant snow is what I meant. After you get colder than -20 degrees Celsius you start making sector plates instead of flakes. But I am wrong in thinking that Memphis will be too cold. I just don't want to make any calls right now.

Here's hoping I never see a sector plate! Lol
Thanks for all the info Ref.

[starkvegasdawg]

But I am wrong in thinking that Memphis will be too cold. I just don't want to make any calls right now.

Oh come on. What's the worst that could happen? People think they aren't going to get any snow and go about business as usual only to have a 2" snow somehow make all the roads impassable and cause vehicles to be abandoned like a Walking Dead episode and kids have to spend the night at school? Then have the final insult added on as SNL make fun of Southerners during the weekend update? Never happen in a million years.

[Todd4State]

Here's hoping I never see a sector plate! Lol
Thanks for all the info Ref.

What is a sector plate, and I probably hope I never see one either? It sounds like it would tear up my car and house.

[DownwardDawg]

What is a sector plate, and I probably hope I never see one either? It sounds like it would tear up my car and house.

Ref gotta answer that one. It sounds nasty.

[Dawgface]

If its to cold to snow it should be to cold to work, go to school, or pay bills!

Not too cold to drink though.

[DownwardDawg]

Not too cold to drink though.

No such thing.

[MetEdDawg]

Ref gotta answer that one. It sounds nasty.

The precipitation comes down looking more like a solid plate. With a sector plate, the flake that comes down is completely solid on one side and can look exactly like a hexagon. They fall with much colder temps than regular snow flakes and they" flip" upside down based on what we think is some atmospheric torque created by the colder temperatures. So they fall as what I like to term "hard" snowflakes that really doesn't have a clearly defined ice crystal shape anymore.

That's basically what I can give you without going into atmospheric hydrodynamics and the physics of the atmosphere and overloading your minds. I'll be honest, I'm surprised I could pull that out after 3 1/2 years off of daily forecasting and being in my meteorology classes all day.

[starkvegasdawg]

The precipitation comes down looking more like a solid plate. With a sector plate, the flake that comes down is completely solid on one side and can look exactly like a hexagon. They fall with much colder temps than regular snow flakes and they" flip" upside down based on what we think is some atmospheric torque created by the colder temperatures. So they fall as what I like to term "hard" snowflakes that really doesn't have a clearly defined ice crystal shape anymore.

That's basically what I can give you without going into atmospheric hydrodynamics and the physics of the atmosphere and overloading your minds. I'll be honest, I'm surprised I could pull that out after 3 1/2 years off of daily forecasting and being in my meteorology classes all day.
So it's the steel toed boot of the snowflake world. Gotcha.

[DownwardDawg]

The precipitation comes down looking more like a solid plate. With a sector plate, the flake that comes down is completely solid on one side and can look exactly like a hexagon. They fall with much colder temps than regular snow flakes and they" flip" upside down based on what we think is some atmospheric torque created by the colder temperatures. So they fall as what I like to term "hard" snowflakes that really doesn't have a clearly defined ice crystal shape anymore.

That's basically what I can give you without going into atmospheric hydrodynamics and the physics of the atmosphere and overloading your minds. I'll be honest, I'm surprised I could pull that out after 3 1/2 years off of daily forecasting and being in my meteorology classes all day.

Thank you for that. That was deep enough!

[Boomer15]

What do you think will happen in a Desoto County? I teach and coach up here and I'd love a day or 2 off.

[mic]

its going to be 90 in Cabo Tuesday if you need it...

[TheRef]

Here's a photo of a sector plate.
http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/class/w040122b077.jpg
So what this does is drop the snow ratios down dramatically. Sector plates are easier to become compact so instead of a possible 50:1 snow ratio if you stay on the upper limits of the snow growth region (-10 to -20 Celsius) you're getting into more of a 25:1 snow ratio. For those who don't know what a snow ratio is, that means that for every 1 inch of actual water you will get 50 inches of snow (if a 50:1 ratio) and so on and so forth.