Baseball scrimmage stats

[The Croom Diaries]

Obviously a small sample size, but something to take a gander at nonetheless. I'll update this post as more scrimmages occur in case you feel so inclined to bookmark it or drop by the site for a viewing. It's just batting averages and ERAs.

http://maroonandwhitenation.com/2014/02/03/baseball-scrimmage-stats/

[MsStateBaseball]

That is great!

[cbrunt29]

Rea is gonna be a beast this year. Little disappointed to see C.T.'s average so low.

[msstate7]

Rea is gonna be a beast this year. Little disappointed to see C.T.'s average so low.

Ct has been disappointing for awhile now. I wonder how much pressure other outfielders can put on ct.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Rea is gonna be a beast this year. Little disappointed to see C.T.'s average so low.

CT should be better this year if he's healthy, but don't try to take anything away from these numbers. You can tell nothing from five scrimmages.

[MsStateBaseball]

Stats are one thing but actually watching them bat is another. Hitting it hard right at folks is not a stat.

[msstate7]

Stats are one thing but actually watching them bat is another. Hitting it hard right at folks is not a stat.

So is ct getting good contact? He popped up and struck out too much for a speed guy last season

[messageboardsuperhero]

So is ct getting good contact? He popped up and struck out too much for a speed guy last season

From what I've heard, CT has changed some things with his swing and is doing a much better job of staying on top of the ball.

It's all about pitch selection and patience for him though.

[shoeless joe]

From what I've heard, CT has changed some things with his swing and is doing a much better job of staying on top of the ball.

This is his key. Getting his hands thru enough to get on top of the ball. He has a tendency to let his back side collapse just enough to prevent him from getting to an avg to above avg fastball unless he cheats and then he's unable to adjust to offspeed.

His ability to put pressure,consistently, on a defense will be a gigantic boost to our offense this year. But he will be on the field because defensively he is a plus plus center fielder.

[msstate7]

This is his key. Getting his hands thru enough to get on top of the ball. He has a tendency to let his back side collapse just enough to prevent him from getting to an avg to above avg fastball unless he cheats and then he's unable to adjust to offspeed.

His ability to put pressure,consistently, on a defense will be a gigantic boost to our offense this year. But he will be on the field because defensively he is a plus plus center fielder.

Isn't robson supposed to be a very good defensive outfielder also?

[engie]

Stats are one thing but actually watching them bat is another. Hitting it hard right at folks is not a stat.

This is what makes Will James' sabermetric stats so valuable. Because BABIP that he likes to use so often actually does account for this.

[shoeless joe]

Isn't robson supposed to be a very good defensive outfielder also?

I have not seen another defensive outfielder that is anywhere near CT. look at it this way...renfroe, an obvious 5 tool guy...only played center when CT was injured. In fact I would go out and say he is the best defensive outfielder I've seen at MSU. his range and the jump he gets off the bat are unmatched by anyone I've personally seen for us.

[Coach34]

Shoeless- are you who I think you is?

[messageboardsuperhero]

CT is a damn good defensive center fielder- he's right up there with Joseph Hunter as one of the best I've personally seen at State.

[shoeless joe]

Shoeless- are you who I think you is?

No idea...

[Coach34]

nope- not you

[smootness]

This is what makes Will James' sabermetric stats so valuable. Because BABIP that he likes to use so often actually does account for this.

This is true to some extent, but it can still only tell you so much. It still doesn't really tell you how hard a guy is hitting the ball because a low BABIP could be due to bad luck or it could be due to hitting the ball weakly, hitting dribblers or pop-ups. Similarly, a high BABIP could be due to good luck or it could be due to ripping the ball all over the place.

I'm a Braves fan, so I'll use the Braves as the example. Everyone said Chris Johnson's BABIP was ridiculously high last year and was due to come crashing down. Well, it did come down a little by the end of the year, as no one can keep it as high as his was, but it was still high mostly because he was hitting a ton of line drives, not just because he was crazy lucky. Then you look at Heyward in his really down year a couple of years ago. His BABIP was crazy low that year but it wasn't really due to bad luck. He was hitting a ton of dribblers to the right side of the infield for easy outs; no amount of luck was going to result in those being hits. His BABIP was also extremely low early last year, but that was due far more to luck because he was ripping the ball hard. You still have to watch the games to really know what's going on.

They're good tools when used correctly, but they still don't give you the whole picture.

[bulldogcountry1]

CT's offense will be a big key to success. We know we can count on Detz, Pirtle, and Rea, but they can't do it all by themselves. CT is a SR who showed a lot of potential as a FR, battled injuries as a SO, and looked pretty awful most of last year. To many misses and too many infield flies. He reminded me of Ichiro minus all the contact. He still managed to hit .281, but really didn't progress as the season went along. Let's hope he's solved some things in the offseason. We need him to hit .325 and have an OBP of .400.

[Offshore Dawg]

Good pitching may trump good hitting. We had the same discussions last spring on football. Time to bring on the competition.

[engie]

In actually seeing these numbers and starting to get a feel for reality -- it's very possible we have the best staff in the country by a comfortable margin. And Paul Young hasn't even thrown yet in the scrimmages according to those stats...

[msstate7]

In actually seeing these numbers and starting to get a feel for reality -- it's very possible we have the best staff in the country by a comfortable margin. And Paul Young hasn't even thrown yet in the scrimmages according to those stats...

I like our staff a lot, but I'm a little concerned about our bats.

[BLC]

I wouldn't be too concerned about offense. Remember, in our scrimmages, our hitters are going against great pitching nearly every AB. It is cold and they are being pitched tough. The team is deep, thus cold hitters can get spelled by other, also very talented hitters. It also seems that CT tends to be the player who takes a lot of criticism on this board. Expect him to have a great year. He's healthy, knows the landscape and is very motivated. Trust me, he will be the least of the team's problems ... if there are any.

[smootness]

I like our staff a lot, but I'm a little concerned about our bats.

I feel comfortable with them. We know what we have in Detz, Pirtle, and Rea. They'll hit. I also think that between Henderson, Bradford, Armstrong, Robson, Vickerson that 2-3 of them will turn into really good overall offensive players. They all have plenty of speed, we know Vickerson looks like on on-base machince; Henderson has improved every year; we've heard really good things about the way Armstrong looks; and we know Bradford can do it, as he's done it before. He now claims to be fully healthy.

Then you're basically looking at SS, C, and DH. We'll see on Britton; there have been rave reviews, but he hasn't done it before, so we'll see. I like the options at C, and I think we'll mostly see Randolph and Collins. Then between Garner and Humphreys at DH, I think they're both natural hitters who should transition pretty smoothly.

We won't crush the ball all over the park, but there's a pretty good chance we end up with a lineup without any holes in which everyone gives good at-bats and is able to get on base.

[engie]

I like our staff a lot, but I'm a little concerned about our bats.

- We know the staff will be one of the best in the country.
- We do not know how good the bats are yet.

Either way, what I project as our opening day starting 8(in the field) are hitting over .300 as a group in these scrimmages. Run production is difficult when the squad is split.

[shoeless joe]

In actually seeing these numbers and starting to get a feel for reality -- it's very possible we have the best staff in the country by a comfortable margin. And Paul Young hasn't even thrown yet in the scrimmages according to those stats...

I agree that we could have one of that top staffs in college baseball. But there is an enormous difference between that potential and realizing it on the field in big game situations on a consistent basis. Stepping in and being consistent in the SEC will be a big accomplishment for some of these younger guys that have the potential to be big time guys. Look no further than Devon jones and Evan Mitchell to see big league ability not realized on the collegiate level for whatever reason.

[engie]

I agree that we could have one of that top staffs in college baseball. But there is an enormous difference between that potential and realizing it on the field in big game situations on a consistent basis. Stepping in and being consistent in the SEC will be a big accomplishment for some of these younger guys that have the potential to be big time guys. Look no further than Devon jones and Evan Mitchell to see big league ability not realized on the collegiate level for whatever reason.

We aren't recruiting Devon Jones or Evan Mitchell-types of players anymore. We don't have to take those risks now. Those were talented guys with glaring red flags preventing them from being heavily recruited and also keeping them off the immediate MLB radar -- that we thought/hoped we could overcome. In some cases we got past the mental block(Stratton), in others(the two you listed) we couldn't. Frankly, we recruited those types because we couldn't GET "sure things" on the front end of Cohen's rebuild. Especially after McNickle built a reputation of destroying arms at MSU that it took Butch awhile to overcome.

The guys we are recruiting now IMO are not comparable to the guys you listed. Am I saying that one of them couldn't be a mental case? Absolutely one or two of them could be. But in general -- they are on an entirely different level mentally coming in.

[shoeless joe]

We aren't recruiting Devon Jones or Evan Mitchell-types of players anymore. We don't have to take those risks now. Those were talented guys with glaring red flags preventing them from being heavily recruited and also keeping them off the immediate MLB radar -- that we thought/hoped we could overcome. In some cases we got past the mental block(Stratton), in others(the two you listed) we couldn't. Frankly, we recruited those types because we couldn't GET "sure things" on the front end of Cohen's rebuild. Especially after McNickle built a reputation of destroying arms at MSU that it took Butch awhile to overcome.

The guys we are recruiting now IMO are not comparable to the guys you listed. Am I saying that one of them couldn't be a mental case? Absolutely one or two of them could be. But in general -- they are on an entirely different level mentally coming in.

Not to get into an argument but how can we be sure that none of the guys on our staff won't tighten that sphincter in a big SEC game situation? We don't...

Now, can we recruit the "type" of players that are less likely to fall victim to that? I suppose we could but in reality we don't know. I know for a fact that one of our big time pitching prospects falls into that category. Their high school pitching coach's description was "head case" that struggled when the lights were the brightest. So I wouldn't say we have completely shyed away from those types. Fortunately, one pitcher doesn't make a whole staff.

All I'm trying to say is that before we project that we are one of the top staffs we need to see some realized potential in SEC play. I do think the talent and ability to dominate is there but the mental side of baseball is more evident than in any other sport. I also think that projecting consistent success is more difficult in baseball.

[engie]

Not to get into an argument but how can we be sure that none of the guys on our staff won't tighten that sphincter in a big SEC game situation? We don't...
It's a law of averages. For everyone that tightens up -- you will have one that steps up and loves/excels under the spotlight. We're good at finding those players and putting them into the best position to win. While Jones may have "hurt" us because he HAD to pitch for us due to the lack of depth -- Evan Mitchell didn't make much of a difference either way. We're to the point that we are relying on no individual player(s) to be an elite team.


Now, can we recruit the "type" of players that are less likely to fall victim to that? I suppose we could but in reality we don't know. I know for a fact that one of our big time pitching prospects falls into that category. Their high school pitching coach's description was "head case" that struggled when the lights were the brightest. So I wouldn't say we have completely shyed away from those types. Fortunately, one pitcher doesn't make a whole staff.
We already have been recruiting those types of players. That's why we made a national title game with top 12ish talent last year. It's not universally true -- but now that we're rebuilt -- Cohen's teams are going to take on his personality -- meaning they are going to be at their best when the bright lights come on. This is a learned response based on how we practice and how much pressure is applied in those situations. That's been mostly true for his last 3 teams here -- really only one of which was fully "rebuilt".


All I'm trying to say is that before we project that we are one of the top staffs we need to see some realized potential in SEC play. I do think the talent and ability to dominate is there but the mental side of baseball is more evident than in any other sport. I also think that projecting consistent success is more difficult in baseball.
The term "projecting" simply becomes "analyzing" when you have actual game data on the table. I'm projecting what I expect for the future -- not analyzing what is already happening. Many here and SPS can confirm that I generally "see" the mental side of baseball extremely well -- hence why I've been pretty spot-on in projecting the sport over the years. I was the one calling last year's team elite and mostly underrated in the preseason -- and I caught a ton of grief about it during the series losing streak.

Having said all that -- I feel that this is the best overall pitching staff we've had. Does it mean they will be perfect? No. But I'd be totally shocked if we didn't finish in the top 10 in the country in most statistical pitching categories -- and I think if potential is truly met, it could be the absolute best in the country this year and one of the best pitching staffs in college baseball in the last decade or so. This staff has 5 or 6 truly elite MLB arm talents and a ton of very, very good college arm talents. The sky is the limit.

[shoeless joe]

While I will have to disagree with a couple of your generalizations I do agree with the overall theme in your post...and I normally do.

There is a world of potential in this staff. If reached we could be unreal good, and should be. My hope is that you are making a post in late June citing your accurate projections.

[smootness]

We were already one of the best overall pitching staffs in the country last year. Yes, we have the potential to be even better, but let's not act like we just have a bunch of talented kids who have never done anything before.

[shoeless joe]

We were already one of the best overall pitching staffs in the country last year. Yes, we have the potential to be even better, but let's not act like we just have a bunch of talented kids who have never done anything before.

Without trying to come across negative I would argue the exact opposite...who has proven they can consistently fill their role thru the SEC season?

Holder
Mitchell
Bracewell
I'll even throw in fitts as a reliever...but who else?

I can prolly predict the names some folks will say based on one or two excellent appearances but being consistently successful is what we will need to be as good as we can be.

[engie]

Without trying to come across negative I would argue the exact opposite...who has proven they can consistently fill their role thru the SEC season?

Holder
Mitchell
Bracewell
I'll even throw in fitts as a reliever...but who else?

I can prolly predict the names some folks will say based on one or two excellent appearances but being consistently successful is what we will need to be as good as we can be.

What did Stratton prove before 2012?
What did Girodo prove before last year?
Need I keep going?

How many "unexpectedly" elite pitching staffs do we have to have in a row -- before it's safe to expect to be elite?

There's ALOT more than 3 "proven" pitchers on the staff -- that much is for damn sure. By the time anyone is "proven" in your eyes -- they are basically gone already.

[The Croom Diaries]

Without trying to come across negative I would argue the exact opposite...who has proven they can consistently fill their role thru the SEC season?

Holder
Mitchell
Bracewell
I'll even throw in fitts as a reliever...but who else?

I can prolly predict the names some folks will say based on one or two excellent appearances but being consistently successful is what we will need to be as good as we can be.

I would definitely say Woodruff is proven. He was battling arm issues all year last spring. Lindgren is a proven talent he just has to overcome nagging injuries and the propensity for the big inning. Gentry had a pretty darn good year as well....especially down the stretch.

[smootness]

Without trying to come across negative I would argue the exact opposite...who has proven they can consistently fill their role thru the SEC season?

Holder
Mitchell
Bracewell
I'll even throw in fitts as a reliever...but who else?

I can prolly predict the names some folks will say based on one or two excellent appearances but being consistently successful is what we will need to be as good as we can be.

Well, who did we lose from last year? Girodo, Pollorena, and Graveman. Graveman and Girodo were big keys to our postseason success, but they're far from irreplaceable, especially considering that in regard to stuff, Lindgren is a better version of Girodo.

Our pitching staff is not built like most, so you're not going to see many guys go 8 innings. The guys we have returning made up the bulk of one of the best staffs in the country; that much is a fact.

So we only really need a couple of guys from a large group of guys with a lot of talent, the Woodruff/Lindgren/Young/Hudson/P. Brown group, to step up in order to have a filthy staff. I'm just saying that to say, 'We don't know if we'll have one of the best staffs in the country yet' is basically just a 'anything can happen' way of looking at it.

Realistically speaking, it's safe to assume that we will, in fact, have one of the best staffs in the country...as safe as it is to assume that of just about anyone.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Okay, how about it this way: What SEC pitching staff brings back more "proven" pitchers than us? If we're so unproven, who has a more consistent staff?

We have two All-American horses in the pen, along with several other guys who have come up big in clutch situations.
Woodruff has without a doubt proven that (when healthy) he can be a very good- if not elite- starter. Fitts and Bracewell are pretty damn proven. Paul Young, Dakota Hudson, and Jacob Lindgren all have MLB stuff. Need I go on?

There are very few "proven" commodities in college baseball, because the elite, proven players leave after three years. The only SEC team who could arguably have a more "proven" weekend rotation is LSU, and when you factor in bullpens, our staff really is about as experienced as it gets in this league.

[shoeless joe]

I knew I'd catch hell for that post but it is what it is. If the actual proven guys do their thing and a few guys step up we are gonna be hard to beat. Do we have the potential to be the best of the best? Yep.

Gonna be a fun year

[messageboardsuperhero]

I knew I'd catch hell for that post but it is what it is. If the actual proven guys do their thing and a few guys step up we are gonna be hard to beat. Do we have the potential to be the best of the best? Yep.

Gonna be a fun year

I don't think anyone was trying to give you hell for having your own opinion- I even see where you're coming from to an extent.

You just have to look at what we have coming back relative to everyone else. Objectively speaking, we have as much, if not more proven talent on the mound than anyone in the SEC. Are we going to have to rely on a few guys who haven't pitched that much? Sure, but everyone else is going to have to rely on those players more than we will- not to mention our less proven pitchers are more talented than most other team's.

Also, like engie said earlier, we aren't relying on any one or two individual pitchers to step up. We have a ton of guys with top end SEC stuff, but we only need at least couple of them to pitch to their potential and complement what we already have.