Personalized forecasts: Winter Storm Edition

[TheRef]

Okay, I'm feeling adventurous. If anyone would like a personalized forecast for this winter storm event that will occur this week, just drop down your location (general is okay) and I'll start doing the forecasts this afternoon.

[Hattdawg]

Hattiesburg to mobile. I will be traveling between the two Tuesday.

[Op4isabitch]

Hey Ref, would appreciate one for the Tupelo area, thanks!

[starkvegasdawg]

WHat are the odds the storm shifts north? Pisses me off to live in Starkville and be too far north for snow.

[TheRef]

WHat are the odds the storm shifts north? Pisses me off to live in Starkville and be too far north for snow.

Odds are low, to be honest. This is going to be a system that stays mainly from I-20 down as far as wintery precipitation.

[MSUMatt]

Time to play will she or won't she go to school Wednesday. Your thoughts?

[TheRef]

Time to play will she or won't she go to school Wednesday. Your thoughts?

It all depends on how far North this snow goes. Things are pretty unsure on the Northern extent of the snow. I don't know an individual school district's policy on snow days and dismissal from school.

[Hattdawg]

Time to play will she or won't she go to school Wednesday. Your thoughts?

Hey Matt where you from in Smiff county? I grew up there.

[K9 Avenger]

How about Madison/Jackson metro Ref?

[turkish]

Baton Rouge?

[SignalToNoise]

MS Gulf Coast

[DownwardDawg]

Hey Ref
I gotta drive from Oak Grove to Venice Louisiana early Wednesday morning. What's that looking like?

[MSUMatt]

Hey Matt where you from in Smiff county? I grew up there.

Raleigh

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Rutherford NJ. Should we expect a super bowl Friday, Sat, Sun, or Mon.

[Irondawg]

Have to drive fom Madison to New Orleans Tuesday afternoon/early evening and then spend Wed morning wondering how long my flight out of NO is giong to be delayed.

[Hunkaburningdawg]

I also have to travel to NOLA for work tomorrow. I was orginally going to leave tomorrow afternoon, but the threat of icy conditions has me wondering whether I should leave first thing. Thoughts?

[Drugdog]

How about Silver city to Isola ?
Kidding.

[bgover4]

Hey ref, are you sure all the white stuff is gonna stay south of Lafayette county? I wouldn't want Henderson to get confused***

[Barking 13]

I don't care, it's just going to be 17ing COLD!!!

[EnterpriseDawg]

What's the chances it hits Meridian? I would really like a weather day.

[TheRef]

Hey ref, are you sure all the white stuff is gonna stay south of Lafayette county? I wouldn't want Henderson to get confused***

Yupp. I'm absolutely certain about that. Henderson can't get his cocaine lost in the snow this time.

[TheRef]

Okay. All of these forecasts are going to be very basic layouts as far as what I will give y'all. If you want more in-depth, I can do that for you but you'll need to tell me that before I will give it to you. So here we go, I'll try to clump ones together that are close to each other.

[Statecoachingblows**]

Coastal Alabama? Never snows here, the panic is on

[TheRef]

#1: Tupelo area

0% chance of snow. Hate to burst your bubble but I don't see any feasible way of there being snow up in Tupelo. The Northern part of the state is just too cold, believe it or not, for our snow chances. The front is pushing too far South for the Tupelo area to get snow. It will be pretty freaking cold though with a high only in the upper 20's for tomorrow with a corresponding low the next evening in the single digits!!!

#2: Highway 82 corridor

Latest model runs (12Z) are showing that we are just about on the borderline for a DUSTING of snow during this event. I put the chances of snow <10% for this whole stretch of area. If the models continue to trend towards pushing this Low more to a Northerly track then we could see more, but I'm not looking at that to be the case. The main snow chances, however, will be further South around the I-20 corridor.

#3: I-20 corridor

This is where it gets tricky. The NAM is keeping the line mostly away from I-20 on the western extent, but will touch the eastern extent of I-20 during the period. This could all change with subsequent soundings and model runs, but everything seems to be touching towards < 1" for the region with the higher amounts towards the Eastern part of the state (Meridian, et. al.) near the I-20 corridor and pushing South towards the coast until about the LA-MS boot begins. I give this area about a 50-60% chance to receive snowfall, although only a light dusting of wet snow is possible further to the West.

#4: NOLA region

NOLA will be interesting to watch also as this is where the Southernmost extent of the snow will likely come from. Now this region will also be subjected to possible freezing rain Tuesday morning lasting throughout the day and into the evening. This will be about as much of a wintry precipitation chance as New Orleans is going to get. Maybe a light dusting of wet wet snow, but that seems quite unlikely.

#5: MS Gulf Coast region

MS Gulf Coast will be subjected to the most snowfall in the regions that have been asked. It certainly is not out of the question to get multiple inches of precipitation (snow/sleet) before this system pushes out. The only reliable model location on the coast is Gulfport, so I'll base all of my forecasts on this location since it has the most data. Everthing looks to be kicking off around early to mid morning Tuesday with some freezing rain. With this freezing rain, there may be some light accumulation on bridges and cars who have been sitting in the cold all night without being run. The freezing rain chances will continue throughout the day until late in the evening around midnight. At that point, snow will become much more likely, granted for only about 3 hours. So the best chance to see snow fall on the coast is late in the night.

If y'all need anything else, just hit me up.

[starkvegasdawg]

#1: Tupelo area

0% chance of snow. Hate to burst your bubble but I don't see any feasible way of there being snow up in Tupelo. The Northern part of the state is just too cold, believe it or not, for our snow chances. The front is pushing too far South for the Tupelo area to get snow. It will be pretty freaking cold though with a high only in the upper 20's for tomorrow with a corresponding low the next evening in the single digits!!!

#2: Highway 82 corridor

Latest model runs (12Z) are showing that we are just about on the borderline for a DUSTING of snow during this event. I put the chances of snow <10% for this whole stretch of area. If the models continue to trend towards pushing this Low more to a Northerly track then we could see more, but I'm not looking at that to be the case. The main snow chances, however, will be further South around the I-20 corridor.

#3: I-20 corridor

This is where it gets tricky. The NAM is keeping the line mostly away from I-20 on the western extent, but will touch the eastern extent of I-20 during the period. This could all change with subsequent soundings and model runs, but everything seems to be touching towards < 1" for the region with the higher amounts towards the Eastern part of the state (Meridian, et. al.) near the I-20 corridor and pushing South towards the coast until about the LA-MS boot begins. I give this area about a 50-60% chance to receive snowfall, although only a light dusting of wet snow is possible further to the West.

#4: NOLA region

NOLA will be interesting to watch also as this is where the Southernmost extent of the snow will likely come from. Now this region will also be subjected to possible freezing rain Tuesday morning lasting throughout the day and into the evening. This will be about as much of a wintry precipitation chance as New Orleans is going to get. Maybe a light dusting of wet wet snow, but that seems quite unlikely.

#5: MS Gulf Coast region

MS Gulf Coast will be subjected to the most snowfall in the regions that have been asked. It certainly is not out of the question to get multiple inches of precipitation (snow/sleet) before this system pushes out. The only reliable model location on the coast is Gulfport, so I'll base all of my forecasts on this location since it has the most data. Everthing looks to be kicking off around early to mid morning Tuesday with some freezing rain. With this freezing rain, there may be some light accumulation on bridges and cars who have been sitting in the cold all night without being run. The freezing rain chances will continue throughout the day until late in the evening around midnight. At that point, snow will become much more likely, granted for only about 3 hours. So the best chance to see snow fall on the coast is late in the night.

If y'all need anything else, just hit me up.

I just saw a model run (forgot which one) showing sleet and snow falling in the Gulf of Mexico. Makes me want to drag Al Gore's sorry butt down to the beach in a pair of swimming trunks and ask him his thoughts on global warming.

[TheRef]

Rutherford NJ. Should we expect a super bowl Friday, Sat, Sun, or Mon.

I don't see them moving the Super Bowl. Snow chances are relatively low for Sunday and temps will be cold, but not anything unusual for NYC area.

[drunkernhelldawg]

Will snow fall into the Gulf of Mexico?

[TheRef]

Will snow fall into the Gulf of Mexico?

To be honest, I have no idea.

[DownwardDawg]

So, no mention of the Hattiesburg area?

[TheRef]

So, no mention of the Hattiesburg area?

Well....USM has cancelled class due to inclement weather. I'd expect around 2" of snow.

[DownwardDawg]

Well....USM has cancelled class due to inclement weather. I'd expect around 2" of snow.

I have the weather channel app. There was no mention of snow the other night until about 15 minutes after it started snowing.

[TheRef]

I have the weather channel app. There was no mention of snow the other night until about 15 minutes after it started snowing.

Reason #5135494758956 why I don't like TWC app

[FlabLoser]

For Jackson, NOAA is predicting 60% for sleet/snow. TWC says 30% snow and nothing else.

I usually find TWC reasonably accurate. Surprised they and NOAA disagree this much for tomorrow.

[WeWillScrewItUp]

How about the mccomb area

[Yossarian]

Durham, NC

[TheRef]

How about the mccomb area

You're going to get a mix. Mostly sleet and freezing rain.

[TheRef]

Durham, NC

NC is a tough call. We did a case-study on it in Forecasting today considering it's such a difficult forecast. You'll probably have mostly snow, though. You'll have around 5 inches of snow accumulation.

[Yossarian]

Thanks, Ref. I'd better go get some milk and bread. :-)

[Schultzy]

I don't see them moving the Super Bowl. Snow chances are relatively low for Sunday and temps will be cold, but not anything unusual for NYC area.

High 39 low 23 mostly sunny... Wind 8 mph. Looks like they're gonna get lucky with the weather for the Super Bowl.

Supposed to rain or snow up there Saturday so it could change though.