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MsStateBaseball
01-25-2014, 04:45 PM
Judging what I read: pitching is ahead of hitting right now, Woodruff looked good, Fitts & Bracewell too, Lindgren fanned 3 in one inning, Paul Young pitched- he just needs reps, too many hitters looking at strike three.

engie
01-25-2014, 04:52 PM
Would love to know where Young was on the radar gun. Curious if he's got all of his velocity back...

TheRef
01-25-2014, 04:58 PM
Would love to know where Young was on the radar gun. Curious if he's got all of his velocity back...

They said 92-95

bully99
01-25-2014, 05:04 PM
Ended in 1 all tie(7inn)' just from what I saw on Twitter. Pitching dominated.Ross Mitchell also pitched.Zack Randolph was 2 _4 according to box

engie
01-25-2014, 05:07 PM
That's damn close then.

Awesome. If he's 100%, I'm tempted to get really, really woolly about our pitching staff. Wish Omaha was a more condensed format -- where pitching depth was more of a requirement.

bully99
01-25-2014, 05:21 PM
Engie, they still have to cut 5 or 6 players. Any idea who.

Five-tool Poster
01-25-2014, 05:31 PM
Judging what I read: pitching is ahead of hitting right now, Woodruff looked good, Fitts & Bracewell too, Lindgren fanned 3 in one inning, Paul Young pitched- he just needs reps, too many hitters looking at strike three.

You failed to mention Preston Brown, who had the best outing of the day.

messageboardsuperhero
01-25-2014, 05:44 PM
You failed to mention Preston Brown, who had the best outing of the day.

P. Brown was also very good in the summer and in fall ball- he'll help us this year on the mound.

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 05:45 PM
Engie, they still have to cut 5 or 6 players. Any idea who.

Not engie, but if Rooker and Ingram redshirt as it has been rumored, that's two right there. Levi Mintz will probably be redshirted as well. I suspect the other 2-3 will be pitchers, but that's just a guess.

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 05:47 PM
P. Brown was also very good in the summer and in fall ball- he'll help us this year on the mound.

He just has to throw a curveball when the coaches tell him to. Last year, he crossed up Butch and LSU hit an eventual game winning home run off of him. I bet he learned his lesson though- plus, he had to wear the pink back-pack of shame.

bully99
01-25-2014, 06:31 PM
Todd,from what I've seen, there is about 40 or 41 on the roster and the people who cover the team say you have to be at a solid 35 before the season. Kyle Niblett? Tweeted the other day the roster would be released on February 12 or 13'

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 06:50 PM
Todd,from what I've seen, there is about 40 or 41 on the roster and the people who cover the team say you have to be at a solid 35 before the season. Kyle Niblett? Tweeted the other day the roster would be released on February 12 or 13'

That is correct, and it gets confusing.

You have to have a roster of no more than 35 active players. You can have more than that are considered on the team, but only 35 can be active. Players that are redshirting and are walking on don't have to be counted on the 35 man active list. A player that is redshirting that is on scholarship has to be on the 35 man active list.

Using my intuition here- and this is just a guess- the players that are going to redshirt will likely be considered walk-ons for at least this year. Now, they can still get athletic scholarship money later on in their career.

And yes, there is always the possibility that a few players may choose to leave on their own accord or whatever. But it always goes up until the last minute because you want to give everyone every possible chance to prove themselves. And also, you want to see if there are any injuries- for example, a couple of years ago when Bracewell was out for the year, he was not put on the active roster because we knew he wasn't going to be able to play that year.

mcain31
01-25-2014, 07:26 PM
Todd, can you post how you feel the depth chart will shake out?

MsStateBaseball
01-25-2014, 07:59 PM
I have projected depth chart on my blog.

Any walk on that was redshirted last year is on the chopping block. Once that is done current walk on's will redshirt, Billingsley and Mintz for sure are RS BC they were interviewed and said there were walking on. Rooker and Ingram I don't know if they are walk on. The two JC pitchers not Paul Young, haven't been doing well according to what I read so they might be cut or RS.

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 08:48 PM
C- 1A Cody Walker
1B- Daniel Garner
1C- Zach Randolph
1D- Gavin Collins

Cather is totally up for grabs. We're going to see all four and whomever handles the staff the best along with playing the best defense will start. If Garner isn't catching, he could DH/PH.

1B- 1. Rea
2. Detz
3. Garner
4A. Ingram
4B. Rooker

This is Rea's job unless he gets hurt again. Detz has experience there, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went with Garner, Humphries, or Gavin Collins in the event of an injury. If Rea has an injury, there is also an outside chance that they go with Rooker or Ingram if they are on the roster.

2B 1. Pirtle
2. Hann
3. Heck
4. Britton

Solid group to choose from. One of those will also be the starting SS. Hann and Heck would be no doubt starters on a lot of teams.

3B- 1A. Reid Humphries
1B. Detz
2. Hann
3. Britton
4. Collins

I know that a lot of people say that Detz will be the third baseman, but I feel as the year goes along, Humphries defense there will eventually land him the job. If Detz is going to start there, he has to improve defensively. Having an entire season to work on the position will help. Hann is short for the position, but he has the arm. Britton only plays here if he loses the SS job and we have injuries. Collins might be our third baseman of the future with Chase Vallot hopefully joining next year.

SS- 1. Britton
2. Heck
2B- Hann
3. Pirtle

I think Bitton takes a step forward. If he doesn't, he may lose or platoon with Heck who is a very good defender. We'll see if he can hit SEC pitching. If those two don't work out, I think Hann could do the job. Hann also might be a super utility guy for us- and that's a luxury in college baseball and especially with a guy as talented as Hann.

LF- 1. Robson
2. Demarcus
3. Swinarski

Most of our outfielders can play all three positions because we have a lot of CF types. We need that at Dudy-Noble. I'm going to be a little bit lazy and just make sure that everyone gets listed at least once for the outfield positions. I expect Swinarski to get a limited amount of at bats. He's talented though.

CF- 1. CT
2. Jake Vickerson
3. Robson
4. Cody Brown
5. Derrick Armstrong

CT is a senior, and he will pitch some. He just needs to stay healthy. Vickerson is very good and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he starts a lot this year. Cody Brown is a good defensive replacement/PH/PR type of guy. He stole some home runs in some scrimmages. Armstrong is a solid role player and will see some action in spot starts and also as a PH/PR.

RF- 1. Demarcus
2. Reid Humphries
3. Gavin Collins
4. Brent Rooker

Demarcus is a fourth year junior and he has made progress every year. He's a solid player who just needs to refine his game a little bit. Humphries may end up here if he hits like I think he will and also if Detz shows that he can handle third base. I think Rooker eventually ends up in the outfield because he can run really well for someone that is 6'5".

DH- 1. Detz
2. Garner
3. Humphries

Of course, anyone can DH, and certainly you typically want a power hitter here. But Detz's bad has to be in the lineup no matter what. He's a good hitter and has a good eye. I would not be shocked if he led the SEC in batting average this year. Garner has good power, but I hope to see him at catcher. We may play Humphries here if Detz can handle third, but I think Humphries is too good defensively to not find him a spot in the field.

Rotation:

Fri- Woodruff
Sat.- Fitts/Lindgren
Sun.- Hudson, maybe Paul Young, maybe Bracewell

Tues- Hudson or Young, maybe Austin Sexton.

Woodruff is our ace. I think Lindgren will follow the path that Stratton did and start out in the bullpen and then eventually move into the rotation. I think Fitts will be really good because he had a very good summer. Hudson is pretty close to being ready right now, but my hope is that we use him out of the bullpen as a power arm like what Ole Miss did with Drew Pomeranz his freshman year. We're so blessed that Young didn't have to have surgery. He just needs how to learn to be a starting pitcher from a weekly routine standpoint, and then next year he will step into the SEC rotation. If he pitches midweek, he'll see some action against Ole Miss in the Governor's Cup, against a good USM team, and then in the SEC Tournament. Bracewell could start, but I like him better coming out of the bullpen. Sexton will probably get a couple of spot starts early and then go to the pen. CT could start, but I like him better as a CF and LOOGY.

Bullpen:

Holder is the closer and might set some SEC save records this year, Bracewell is experienced and can go multiple innings. Ross is an All-American. I've always like Will Cox and I think he could be another Caleb Reed type of guy with more upside. Myles Gentry will be solid and probably surprise some people. Preston Brown is a good middle relief guy. Like I said, I hope Hudson comes out of the pen as well. We'll see what happens with Lindgren- he may be just more comfortable coming out of the bullpen as opposed to starting. Whatever is best for him is best for us. John Marc Shelly will fight for time. The rest of the freshmen probably won't pitch much this year or will redshirt.

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 08:51 PM
I have projected depth chart on my blog.

Any walk on that was redshirted last year is on the chopping block. Once that is done current walk on's will redshirt, Billingsley and Mintz for sure are RS BC they were interviewed and said there were walking on. Rooker and Ingram I don't know if they are walk on. The two JC pitchers not Paul Young, haven't been doing well according to what I read so they might be cut or RS.

That's probably the general group that they are looking at for the final spot. Rooker, Ingram, Billingsley, Mintz, Ben Hudspeth, and Lucas Laster.

Hudspeth was a good catcher in high school. If I were Cohen, I'd give him a look behind the plate as well.

Thrill1
01-25-2014, 08:57 PM
I have on pretty solid authority at least seven red shirts are the following:

Ingram
Rooker
Mintz
Houston
Geyer
Swinarski
Irby

bully99
01-25-2014, 09:08 PM
If Swinarski red shirts,would it have been better for him to stay and play his senior high school year.

preachermatt83
01-25-2014, 09:14 PM
will cox will def be in the hunt for a starting roll

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 09:16 PM
If Swinarski red shirts,would it have been better for him to stay and play his senior high school year.

In my personal two cents opinion- yes. To me, there is more value in playing your senior in high school rather than skipping it. Unless you are Bryce Harper.

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 09:18 PM
will cox will def be in the hunt for a starting roll

Is that the King James version of "role"? Just kidding.

I'm pretty sure Cox will be in the bullpen. But he will still see a lot of action.

Will James
01-25-2014, 09:19 PM
will cox will def be in the hunt for a starting roll

If that role is a WJ once through the order then the Lindgren comes in for the 3-8 innings then yes. Cox is good, but shouldn't be getting more innings than some of our other guys.

Todd4State
01-25-2014, 09:23 PM
If that role is a WJ once through the order then the Lindgren comes in for the 3-8 innings then yes. Cox is good, but shouldn't be getting more innings than some of our other guys.

Cox would have been our ace 5-6 years ago. That's how much depth we have built up.

preachermatt83
01-25-2014, 09:23 PM
Is that the King James version of "role"? Just kidding.

I'm pretty sure Cox will be in the bullpen. But he will still see a lot of action.

Nice One!

preachermatt83
01-25-2014, 09:25 PM
If that role is a WJ once through the order then the Lindgren comes in for the 3-8 innings then yes. Cox is good, but shouldn't be getting more innings than some of our other guys.

that's kind of what I think.. Much like fitts was used late last season

Saltydog
01-25-2014, 09:31 PM
occasional midweek start...........

MsStateBaseball
01-25-2014, 09:32 PM
I would be shocked about Swinarski RS bc he would be drafted after 3 years, I think he plays.

mcain31
01-25-2014, 09:36 PM
Thanks Todd and MsStateBaseball for the breakdown. I'm really looking forward to this season and next season in baseball.

bully99
01-25-2014, 09:55 PM
You can still be drafted after three years even if you red shirt. I don't think that's s big factor. I agree Todd ,probably should have stayed. But Cohen and Swanarskis family may have had some agreement to not red shirt him.

Will James
01-25-2014, 10:15 PM
Detz was 1-1 with 2 BB's today. Me gusta.

Leadoff material

Coach34
01-25-2014, 10:59 PM
I would be shocked about Swinarski RS bc he would be drafted after 3 years, I think he plays.

where is he going to play? Who is he going to take playing time from?

Thrill1
01-25-2014, 11:05 PM
I was shocked to see Swinarski listed as well, and things could change, but as Todd' breakdown alluded to, he is behind several folks in the OF. Take away CT, Robson & Demarcus, who lets say start, & you still have Vickerson, Armstrong, C Brown & possibly Humphries. Swinarski simply didn't have a good fall, while older guys earned playing time. Good thing is he's already here getting acclimated, in the strength program and primed to play next year at worst.

MsStateBaseball
01-26-2014, 02:11 AM
I think he will play late in games and have 20 abs on the season then start the next two years.

Lefthandersrule
01-26-2014, 10:39 AM
I love Alex in the top of the order he is an on base machine. Not sure if his speed is right for lead off though.

msstate7
01-26-2014, 10:45 AM
I love Alex in the top of the order he is an on base machine. Not sure if his speed is right for lead off though.

If we can get someone to hit leadoff and steal some bases, detz needs to be in 2-hole. His patience and bat control would allow us to run and hit-and-run

Will James
01-26-2014, 10:52 AM
I love Alex in the top of the order he is an on base machine. Not sure if his speed is right for lead off though.

It doesn't have to be. Especially when a combo of him, Pirtle, and Humphries are jogging around on a Rea/Garner HR.

Will James
01-26-2014, 10:55 AM
If we can get someone to hit leadoff and steal some bases, detz needs to be in 2-hole. His patience and bat control would allow us to run and hit-and-run

Guy has an eagle eye, 18% BB rate, and you want to force him to swing? **** that.

msstate7
01-26-2014, 11:11 AM
Guy has an eagle eye, 18% BB rate, and you want to force him to swing? **** that.

I wanna see more running from us. Force more action...

Coach34
01-26-2014, 11:20 AM
Detz in the 2-hole

Will James
01-26-2014, 11:23 AM
Detz in the 2-hole

Pirtle leadoff then. They gotta be 1-2

Will James
01-26-2014, 11:27 AM
I wanna see more running from us. Force more action...

We were arguably the 3rd best offense in the league last year with what many (including myself) have said is a better overall offense coming back this year. It's not like we were the Oakland A's on the base paths last year, 5th in the league in stolen bases. Cohen learned however WHEN to steal.

Where 2012 was horrid on this subject (we were 7-21 in SEC play on steal attempts) we minimized our CS last year. We still weren't great in league play (13-22) but we picked our spots a lot better.

Now with a (maybe) better lineup coming back and (most likely) better/deeper pitching staff coming back, why is there the urge to change things up and start doing what we've never been particularly good at. Lets just keep rolling like we have been, getting on base, being smart, limiting the bunting and keep improving as an offense like we have been trending since 2012. If it aint broke don't fix it.

CT and Robson can steal down in the bottom of the order sometimes. Pirtle can in limited spots (because he SHOULD BE hitting in the 1-2-3 hole in front of the big guns) Other than that I don't see where much "action needs to be forced"

msstate7
01-26-2014, 11:46 AM
Well we are taking out a 1st round slugger out of our lineup and replacing him with what? I like our lineup, but rea is the only proven guy that scares anyone in our lineup as far as power.

messageboardsuperhero
01-26-2014, 11:47 AM
I'm of the opinion that it doesn't matter how fast you are- if you don't get on base, it doesn't make a difference if you're Carl Lewis. Detz gets on base better than anyone in the conference. He'd be a great leadoff hitter. Speed is a bonus, but it shouldn't be a deciding factor. That said, if Vickerson can get on base like I think he can, he's a perfect leadoff candidate. Put him and Detz 1-2 in front of Rea, Garner, Humphreys, etc.

I agree with WJ in that our bottom of the order should do most of the small ball, stealing bases, and hit and runs. If Detz and Vickerson can get on base 45% of the time, why force them to do anything else?

Jacksondevildog
01-26-2014, 11:58 AM
You don't always replace a big power guy with a big power guy. You replace his production by committee. When Renfroe was hot, he was hot, but he had weeks where he couldn't buy a quality at bat. Would you rather have one guy hit 15 bombs or 4 guys hitting 5 each?

Will James
01-26-2014, 12:03 PM
if Vickerson can get on base like I think he can, he's a perfect leadoff candidate.

I'm of this opinion too and he looked good in the fall but we've all seen Fall-Americans before. If he can take this role, then watch out.

I'll be pretty upset if we see CT in that leadoff spot like he was yesterday in the scrimmage. He has a career 8% BB rate which has been in steady decline since arriving on campus. 4% Fall walk rate.

DogDaddy
01-26-2014, 09:30 PM
Well the good news is if Coach Cohen runs into any problems there's plenty of experts on here he can turn to for advice.

messageboardsuperhero
01-26-2014, 09:40 PM
Well the good news is if Coach Cohen runs into any problems there's plenty of experts on here he can turn to for advice.

How dare people voice their opinions- because that's not what message boards are for or anything.***

CadaverDawg
01-26-2014, 09:43 PM
Well the good news is if Coach Cohen runs into any problems there's plenty of experts on here he can turn to for advice.

Dear God.

engie
01-26-2014, 09:56 PM
Well we are taking out a 1st round slugger out of our lineup and replacing him with what? I like our lineup, but rea is the only proven guy that scares anyone in our lineup as far as power.

Who was the "proven guy that scared people" in our lineup entering into last year?

If you can project back into the circumstances entering the season, you will see that we are MUCH better off from an overall power standpoint right now than we were at this identical point last year.

messageboardsuperhero
01-26-2014, 10:04 PM
Who was the "proven guy that scared people" in our lineup entering into last year?

If you can project back into the circumstances entering the season, you will see that we are MUCH better off from an overall power standpoint right now than we were at this identical point last year.

Exactly.

EVERY team in America has questions before the season- we just seem to have a lot of answers to our questions going into this year. We aren't the only people who have to replace proven guys with unproven players, but very few teams have the quality depth we have.

msstate7
01-26-2014, 10:06 PM
Who was the "proven guy that scared people" in our lineup entering into last year?

If you can project back into the circumstances entering the season, you will see that we are MUCH better off from an overall power standpoint right now than we were at this identical point last year.

I haven't knocked our team at all. I really like our team. I just want us to use our speed more this year. I feel like we have more speed than power.

engie
01-26-2014, 10:18 PM
I haven't knocked our team at all. I really like our team. I just want us to use our speed more this year. I feel like we have more speed than power.

Not saying you did at all...

Just pointing to revisionist history that some seem to have(not you obviously) simply because Renfroe actually lit the woods on fire last year. Only the biggest baseball fans of us foresaw what was coming from him and our overall offense in advance. There are tons of posts out there bitching about our offensive production -- that I went out on a limb with my predictions during the 2012 season and people called me out nonstop(almost all of which were surpassed)...

I don't think any individual can replace Renfroe's production, but Rea can come fairly close -- and Humphries/Garner etc can make up the rest of that gap.

Plus, we're going to be better on the hill than we were last year.

Will James
01-26-2014, 10:19 PM
I haven't knocked our team at all. I really like our team. I just want us to use our speed more this year. I feel like we have more speed than power.

Dont use that premise to think of it. For example, where do you put Detz? It's not a speed-power spectrum.

Coach34
01-26-2014, 10:29 PM
To replace Renfroe from late March to the end of the season in Omaha, all we would need is someone to hit .250 with 4 HR's

msstate7
01-26-2014, 10:31 PM
Dont use that premise to think of it. For example, where do you put Detz? It's not a speed-power spectrum.

1,2, or 5

Will James
01-26-2014, 10:33 PM
1,2, or 5

Was talking he's not power or speed. Thats why its a bad way to look at it. Everyone has their number of runs created that matters.

msstate7
01-26-2014, 10:36 PM
Was talking he's not power or speed. Thats why its a bad way to look at it. Everyone has their number of runs created that matters.

Ahhh... Gotcha.

Todd4State
01-26-2014, 10:44 PM
Guy has an eagle eye, 18% BB rate, and you want to force him to swing? **** that.

As mstate7 said- he has really good bat control and as you said a good eye. He can foul off a ton of pitches and still walk. Or better yet, get a hit.

Will James
01-26-2014, 10:44 PM
To replace Renfroe from late March to the end of the season in Omaha, all we would need is someone to hit .250 with 4 HR's

Don't forget Frazier had a worse slump than Renfroe in there too.

Renfroe from April till the end of the season 8 2B 1 3B 7 HR

.284 BA
.383 OBP
.475 SLG

Homedawg
01-26-2014, 10:47 PM
I'm of this opinion too and he looked good in the fall but we've all seen Fall-Americans before. If he can take this role, then watch out.

I'll be pretty upset if we see CT in that leadoff spot like he was yesterday in the scrimmage. He has a career 8% BB rate which has been in steady decline since arriving on campus. 4% Fall walk rate.

Agreed. Ct is not a leadoff guy. And he has proven he takes better hacks lower in the lineup. Just doesn't press as much.

Todd4State
01-26-2014, 10:49 PM
We were arguably the 3rd best offense in the league last year with what many (including myself) have said is a better overall offense coming back this year. It's not like we were the Oakland A's on the base paths last year, 5th in the league in stolen bases. Cohen learned however WHEN to steal.

Where 2012 was horrid on this subject (we were 7-21 in SEC play on steal attempts) we minimized our CS last year. We still weren't great in league play (13-22) but we picked our spots a lot better.

Now with a (maybe) better lineup coming back and (most likely) better/deeper pitching staff coming back, why is there the urge to change things up and start doing what we've never been particularly good at. Lets just keep rolling like we have been, getting on base, being smart, limiting the bunting and keep improving as an offense like we have been trending since 2012. If it aint broke don't fix it.

CT and Robson can steal down in the bottom of the order sometimes. Pirtle can in limited spots (because he SHOULD BE hitting in the 1-2-3 hole in front of the big guns) Other than that I don't see where much "action needs to be forced"

In 2012, we were racked with injuries. We didn't run not because "Cohen learned when to steal". We didn't run because we had a bunch of injured players who either had leg injuries like CT or we didn't want to risk losing anyone else because we were pretty much at the point of no return. It got so bad, we were using Pollorena as a pinch hitter in the SEC Tournament.

Edit to take back the part about CT- it was his shoulder.

Coach34
01-26-2014, 10:50 PM
I'll check in the morning when I get time- and show what Renfroe was for us the last half of the season

DogDaddy
01-26-2014, 10:51 PM
Dear God.

Sarcasm, Cadaver. Sarcasm.

DogDaddy
01-26-2014, 10:55 PM
How dare people voice their opinions- because that's not what message boards are for or anything.***

Exactly what I just did.

Todd4State
01-26-2014, 10:57 PM
I'm of the opinion that it doesn't matter how fast you are- if you don't get on base, it doesn't make a difference if you're Carl Lewis. Detz gets on base better than anyone in the conference. He'd be a great leadoff hitter. Speed is a bonus, but it shouldn't be a deciding factor. That said, if Vickerson can get on base like I think he can, he's a perfect leadoff candidate. Put him and Detz 1-2 in front of Rea, Garner, Humphreys, etc.

I agree with WJ in that our bottom of the order should do most of the small ball, stealing bases, and hit and runs. If Detz and Vickerson can get on base 45% of the time, why force them to do anything else?

Larry Walker was one of the best base runners in the games history. He wasn't exactly Carl Lewis.

I do like having guys that are threats to run at the top of the order. Because then when your theoretically best power hitters/all around hitters are up at the plate, it forces the pitcher to have to worry about the guys on base doing something. And that takes the focus off of the hitter, which a lot of times especially in college causes the pitcher to get behind in the count and also make it more likely to make a mistake to one of the better hitters on the team. And we all know what can happen if you make a mistake to a power hitter.

Todd4State
01-26-2014, 10:58 PM
Agreed. Ct is not a leadoff guy. And he has proven he takes better hacks lower in the lineup. Just doesn't press as much.

If he's healthy, I think we will be fine wherever we put him.

Coach34
01-26-2014, 11:06 PM
Renfroe last 32 games:

34/129- .264 23 RBI's...4 doubles...1 triple...3 HR's

That's what we got the last half of the season

Todd4State
01-26-2014, 11:12 PM
Renfroe last 32 games:

34/129- .264 23 RBI's...4 doubles...1 triple...3 HR's

That's what we got the last half of the season

It should be mentioned that Renfroe's three run HR in Omaha against Oregon State was the difference in the game that got us to the Finals. That will always be my enduring memory of him because I was there when it happened.

AlSwearengen
01-26-2014, 11:18 PM
I'll check in the morning when I get time- and show what Renfroe was for us the last half of the season

Renfroe struggled down the stretch. He typically feasted on lesser pitchers which padded his stats. He didn't do that great against the top sec pitchers (most don't though). I do remember some big hits from him during the world series though.

Coach34
01-26-2014, 11:32 PM
He was 3/19 in the CWS- but yes Todd, he did hit that big bomb...and definitely a good last memory on him

Will James
01-26-2014, 11:35 PM
You can take a sample of any hitter over a stretch and find a slump. I'll link my post here that I did last year showing Frazier having worse short slumps AND prolonged slumps than Renfroe last year.

He got really cold halfway through league play but turned it back on for the postseason for the most part.

Will James
01-26-2014, 11:51 PM
Ah here we are. From 6-18-13


WTF are you talking about? The slump lasted from May 4th to May 23rd. During this time his average dipped from .402 to .346. After the 23rd his avg evened out and is back up at .357. You do slump for 3 weeks, thats barely a slump at all at the next level. It just seems more exaggerated because our season is shorter.

During the slump he was 11 for 56 hitting .196. He also had a VERY LOW .227 BABIP during the slump. During his slump however he still managed a 14% walk rate. Higher than his overall season average.

Since the slump he's hitting .410 (16 for 39)

The following are some notable batting averages from the last 30 days.
Justin Upton - .202 (Upton has a .311 BABIP during this time)
Anthony Rizzo - .173
Starlin Castro - .178

Shit happens, its baseball. There's nothing that says Renfroe cannot succeed at the next level and there is definitely nothing to suggest he slumped for two months.. thats absurd.

From March 23 thru April 12 Frazier went 9-51 (.176) .200 BABIP. During his slump Frazier walked just twice, in 12 games, as a leadoff hitter. Slump BB% - 3.6%

I don't remember hearing how Frazier couldn't make it at the next level, and his slump was worse than Renfroes.

As you can see, Frazier's slump was worse than Renfroes. Coach went back to say look at the long slump to which I said


From March 23rd thru May 10th Frazier batted .234 (25-107) His OBP during that time was just .299.. as a leadoff hitter! In 25 games Frazier had 0 HBP and just 10 walks.. as a leadoff hitter.

In Renfroes "long slump" his OBP was still .380.

So you can look at short slumps and long "slumps" and Fraziers was worse than Froe's

Coach34
01-27-2014, 09:30 AM
you can say what you want- but 32 games isnt a slump- it's who you are. They changed the book on Renfroe and started busting his hands, and he couldnt handle it. He was a .264 hitter for the 2nd half of the season.

Postseason?

SEC Tourney- He was 3/17 vs frontline pitching then went 3/5 against the bottom of Vandy's bullpen in a blowout loss. So while it was 6/22 overall (.273), the numbers dont really tell the whole story.

Regional- Same thing as SEC Tourney. Was 3/14 vs frontline pitching to begin the Regional, then goes 3/4 against C. Arkansas' gassed staff. 6/18 overall (.333), but it doesnt tell the whole story

Super- 5/9 had a good 2 games vs Virginia

CWS? 3/19 with a big bomb

So he goes 20/68 in the postseason (.294) and that looks solid, but when broken down it wasnt even close to solid. He went 6/9 in 2 games vs gassed pitching staffs. 14/59 (.237) against rested starters.

Will James
01-27-2014, 07:11 PM
you can say what you want- but 32 games isnt a slump

Just cause the season is shorter doesn't mean hitters have shorter slumps. Those slumps happen all the time in baseball. Thats why you play 162.

Frazier had 107 AB's where he hit .234/.299

engie
01-27-2014, 07:20 PM
Why are we talking about the length of slumps of players gone on to the bigs -- instead of our wildcard touching on 95 from the bump and apparently being healthy?

I honestly believe this could be our best staff yet.

Coach34
01-27-2014, 07:23 PM
Just cause the season is shorter doesn't mean hitters have shorter slumps. Those slumps happen all the time in baseball. Thats why you play 162.


College baseball has never played 162...you base what they do on 60 game schedules or so because that is what it is

messageboardsuperhero
01-27-2014, 07:31 PM
Why are we talking about the length of slumps of players gone on to the bigs -- instead of our wildcard touching on 95 from the bump and apparently being healthy?

I honestly believe this could be our best staff yet.

Tell me about it. I actually had to think for a second who you were talking about, considering we have several guys who can hit 95.

Despite what people say about the starter's inexperience, our rotation should be really good. We could have any combination of:

Ben Bracewell
Brandon Woodruff
Trevor Fitts
Paul Young
Dakota Hudson
Austin Sexton
possibly Preston Brown
possibly Jacob Lindgren as the season goes on

Everyone knows how good and deep the bullpen is, so I won't even try to hash out every quality relief pitcher we have. This takes so much pressure off the starters too, because they know they only need to give us five, maybe six innings to win a ball game.

BLC
01-27-2014, 07:37 PM
One of the things we, as baseball fans, love are stats. However, for anyone who's familiar with statistics and sciences stemming from statistics, you know that most stats we view of young players are simply too small in sample size to be relevant. When we view 500, 600 ABs, you can make the case that the sample size might be large enough to draw some meaningful conclusions. However, to look at one year of college stats and draw conclusions may lead you down an incorrect path. You can break down professional players who've had thousands of AB's, and the predictability of future AB's is often incorrect. That leads to bad contracts and GM's looking pretty silly. As much as some would like to turn baseball into a science, thank God it's still at art at heart. Gives us all something to talk about.

Will James
01-27-2014, 08:13 PM
We had a very respectable K rate last year with goofball and Graveman throwing a ton of innings. We should blow everyone in the league away this year with our K numbers. Huge advantage with guys like Woodruff, Hudson, Young, Lindgren, and Holder.

MsStateBaseball
01-27-2014, 08:21 PM
Who wants to comment on Rea batting 3rd and Pirtle cleanup? Pirtle will lead off if first three get out.

I do agree we will strike out lots of folks. The pitching is very very good right now.

engie
01-27-2014, 08:26 PM
Who wants to comment on Rea batting 3rd and Pirtle cleanup? Pirtle will lead off if first three get out.

I do agree we will strike out lots of folks. The pitching is very very good right now.

Don't really like it. But know it'll change 029340923 times throughout the year anyway.

I'd prefer Rea 4th with an on base machine(Detz) and 2 good speed guys in front of him. Then, put Humphreys/Garner 5th to clean up whatever's leftover.

I don't like the "second inning leadoff" idea -- because it assumes alot of 1-2-3 failure -- something I don't expect to happen much.

messageboardsuperhero
01-27-2014, 08:26 PM
We had a very respectable K rate last year with goofball and Graveman throwing a ton of innings. We should blow everyone in the league away this year with our K numbers. Huge advantage with guys like Woodruff, Hudson, Young, Lindgren, and Holder.

"Very respectable K rate" is an understatement- we had the best in the SEC last year. http://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread.php?8190-SEC-Pitching-Stats-2013&highlight=pitching

And yes, we should strike out even more batters this season. That's kind of scary for the rest of the league.

msstate7
01-27-2014, 08:26 PM
I love pirtle, but can he hit well enough to get rea some at bats? I've been wondering who will protect rea in the lineup

Coach34
01-27-2014, 08:31 PM
Who wants to comment on Rea batting 3rd and Pirtle cleanup? Pirtle will lead off if first three get out.

I do agree we will strike out lots of folks. The pitching is very very good right now.

ugh...I wouldnt do it but hey...Cohen is not a conventional guy and it works for him

messageboardsuperhero
01-27-2014, 08:33 PM
Who wants to comment on Rea batting 3rd and Pirtle cleanup? Pirtle will lead off if first three get out.

I do agree we will strike out lots of folks. The pitching is very very good right now.

I'd put Rea in the 4-hole.

Theoretically, Pirtle leading off would be good after a 1-2-3 inning, but quick 1st innings like that aren't really going to happen too much this year.

MsStateBaseball
01-27-2014, 08:34 PM
We don't need a man on first w Rea at bat, double play. So steal.

Does everyone understand we have a possible 4 pitchers that are 1st or 2nd rounders: Young, Woody, Hudson, Sexton? By June, this might be scary.

smootness
01-27-2014, 08:39 PM
Who wants to comment on Rea batting 3rd and Pirtle cleanup? Pirtle will lead off if first three get out.

I do agree we will strike out lots of folks. The pitching is very very good right now.

Didn't Pirtle end last year hitting cleanup? That worked out pretty well. The kid can hit, I don't much care where.

I like the fact that you go into the first inning and know you've already got somebody with pop coming up. And I like the fact that we just keep throwing quality hitters at you, so as long as they're all near the top of the order, I'm fine with it.

Coach34
01-27-2014, 08:41 PM
Detz 2nd, Rea 3rd, and Pirtle 4th....Rea will be surrounded by munchkins

smootness
01-27-2014, 08:43 PM
Does everyone understand we have a possible 4 pitchers that are 1st or 2nd rounders: Young, Woody, Hudson, Sexton? By June, this might be scary.

Yes, and thanks a lot. Now I got to figure out how to keep everyone from noticing this raging boner.

messageboardsuperhero
01-27-2014, 08:53 PM
We don't need a man on first w Rea at bat, double play. So steal.

Does everyone understand we have a possible 4 pitchers that are 1st or 2nd rounders: Young, Woody, Hudson, Sexton? By June, this might be scary.

Make that five with Lindgren.

Also, Holder has top 5 round potential, and I could see guys like Zach Houston and John Marc Shelly, developing into high draft picks as well.

Will James
01-27-2014, 09:13 PM
Who wants to comment on Rea batting 3rd and Pirtle cleanup?

http://replygif.net/i/719.gif

Todd4State
01-27-2014, 09:56 PM
College baseball has never played 162...you base what they do on 60 game schedules or so because that is what it is

There are also no Alcorn State's in MLB.

Todd4State
01-27-2014, 10:02 PM
Who wants to comment on Rea batting 3rd and Pirtle cleanup? Pirtle will lead off if first three get out.

I do agree we will strike out lots of folks. The pitching is very very good right now.

Well, Rea might be our best all around hitter. I don't think he is going to get a lot of protection- unless Humphries has a freshman year like Stephen Head did. I don't mind Pirtle batting fourth based on what our team has currently- even though it's not ideal or conventional. You have to use what you've got.

bully99
01-27-2014, 10:15 PM
What did Head do as a frosh

engie
01-27-2014, 10:24 PM
What did Head do as a frosh

SEC and National Freshman of the Year. Don't remember exact numbers -- but it was the year before the fences were moved in at Swayze and that cost him a lot on his power numbers.

bully99
01-27-2014, 11:20 PM
Or have a freshman year like Palmeiro .406 18 78