Realistically, what's our chances of returning to Omaha?

[BogeyGolfer]

My baseball IQ isn't as extensive as football..but it seems like it takes a shit-ton of luck/ breaks to make it to the CWS or even to host a Super.... What makes many of you so confident we will make it back? I will hang up and listen. For what it's worth, this time of year sucks... I don't get interested in Baseball until April.

[Coach34]

I'd say 50%.

We are one of the 10 best teams in the nation. But you have to play it out, overcome injuries, win big games on the road, get some good luck, etc...I think you will see us be in the position to host another regional and we should win that. Then it's just a battle in the Supers against another good baseball team to make it happen

[Tough Dawg]

Nobody will be able to give you a percentage on this. Getting to a CWS is so hard. So many different variables that come into play and are hard to predict. Our arms have to stay healthy. Renfroe and Frazier are tough to replace offensively and defensively. I could go on and on in my opinion as to the amount of breaks that will have to go our way.

Don't get me a wrong though. We have a very good team. And a group of guys that have experienced what it takes to do it, so that is tremendous. I'll be anxious to see our defensive numbers in the beginning.

[preachermatt83]

the health of our pitchers are the key in all of this. We will ride the arms of our staff to Omaha but if several go down we will go down with them.

[Quaoarsking]

It's hard to get there. The NCAA Baseball tournament is very poorly designed. Double elimination tournaments simply aren't appropriate for baseball. Every year, 2 or 3 of the best 5 teams don't make it, and 1-2 teams who clearly aren't near the top 8 do make it.

Having said that, we have as good of a chance as anyone else. It will all come down to 2 weekends in June.

[curmudgeon]

Here's how I put it. We should be one of the best 10 teams in the country.

That being said, the format baseball is crazy. We were one bad game against Central Arkansas from not making it out of a home regional. Virginia was one of the best teams in the country and we went into their place and swept them, then we were the worst RPI team on our side of the CWS bracket and went 3-0.

UCLA swept who I thought was the best team in the country (Cal State Fullerton) to get to Omaha, then took down LSU and NC State with ease to get to the title game.

Hopefully we play well enough this season to secure a national seed and home field advantage through the Supers. That's the best chance to get back to Omaha, but its not guaranteed. Stony Brook took LSU out in the Supers in Baton Rouge two years ago.

[messageboardsuperhero]

If you're good, I wouldn't say it takes a "shit-ton" of luck to get to Omaha. You obviously have to catch some breaks, have balls drop, etc. but more times than not, it's about talent, experience, and coaching. In 2007, yes- we did get lucky in a lot of respects.

I really don't think it took much luck at all for us to get there last year:

We earned a chance to host a regional by playing well against the toughest conference schedule in the SEC- we proved we were the third best SEC team.
We won what was by far the toughest regional in America (RPI-wise).
We went on the road and swept #6 national seed UVA- a team that had only lost three home games all year up to that point.
We did catch a little break in Omaha when Vandy lost to Louisville in the Supers, but we did still beat #3 national seed OSU twice to get to the finals.

All that being said, it's hard to predict that stuff going into the season. I like our chances, and after reading a lot of preseason/Omaha predictions, it seems like most of the media think we have the talent and experience to get back. All you can do is give yourself a chance by hosting- and I think we'll do that.

[Saltydog]

will be extremely tough for us to get back to Omaha this year. We just lose way too much offense with Frazier and Renfro departing and I don't see the players we have coming in replacing those numbers. I think in the end, offense will be our Achilles heel...........

[MsStateBaseball]

Number one is momentum. That's it in a nutshell. 1989 team, Vandy last year, its that simple.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Here's how I put it. We should be one of the best 10 teams in the country.

That being said, the format baseball is crazy. We were one bad game against Central Arkansas from not making it out of a home regional. Virginia was one of the best teams in the country and we went into their place and swept them, then we were the worst RPI team on our side of the CWS bracket and went 3-0.

UCLA swept who I thought was the best team in the country (Cal State Fullerton) to get to Omaha, then took down LSU and NC State with ease to get to the title game.

Hopefully we play well enough this season to secure a national seed and home field advantage through the Supers. That's the best chance to get back to Omaha, but its not guaranteed. Stony Brook took LSU out in the Supers in Baton Rouge two years ago.

Actually, we were the second best RPI team in our regional. Here's what the RPIs were going into the NCAA tournament:

OSU (the team we had to beat twice)- 5
State- 10
Indiana- 12
Louisville- 16

I'm not talking about you specifically, but some of our fans don't give us enough credit for how good we were last year- we were one of the 10-12 best teams in America last year in the regular season. It was no fluke that we made the CWS. Did we catch a couple of breaks? Maybe- but certainly no more than anyone else who made it to Omaha. We played and beat a lot of good teams fair-and-square last year to get to where we ended up.

[messageboardsuperhero]

will be extremely tough for us to get back to Omaha this year. We just lose way too much offense with Frazier and Renfro departing and I don't see the players we have coming in replacing those numbers. I think in the end, offense will be our Achilles heel...........

It will always be extremely tough for anyone to get to Omaha- if it was easy, UM would have made it at some point in the past 40 years.

As for our offense, I expect us to be about as good as we were last year. We should have one of the better offenses in the SEC.

[Coach34]

will be extremely tough for us to get back to Omaha this year. We just lose way too much offense with Frazier and Renfro departing and I don't see the players we have coming in replacing those numbers. I think in the end, offense will be our Achilles heel...........

Renfroe hit under .250 the last 2 months of the season and was abysmal in Omaha- we can and will replace that. Frazier's production will be the tough one to replace

[Todd4State]

To me, you have to have really good pitching and be able to play good defense. If you have the arms, you can potentially shut down anyone. Offense to me is the least important- although without a doubt if you can hit it really helps a lot. I've seen some bad hitting teams win championships even in MLB. I have yet to see a team win a championship that was a bad pitching team or a team that wasn't good on defense.

As far as a championship, I think one of the most important things that you can have is experience in the postseason. Our team has that- and we've made it about as far as a team can go. I actually think us not having experience in the championship game vs. UCLA having that experience hurt us a lot. We have that this year.

And as far as MSU is concerned, I believe we have the biggest home field advantage in college baseball. Yes, even bigger than LSU. So, if we host a regional and a SR that helps us immensely, and maybe more than your average SR host like Virginia. Clemson probably agrees with me right now about Dudy-Noble.

[MsStateBaseball]

Trust me on this: we have more baseball talent on the 2014 team. Ask a pro scout. Getting experience and keeping healthy is big. Just wait and see.

[bully99]

It's a crap shoot. Sat in the stands in 1984 and 1989 and watched what I thought were the two best teams of the Polk era lose to inferior teams one game away from Omaha. It's tougher to get to Omaha today because of the super regionals and playing a very tough opponent, go ask the bears.

I think the Hunter Renfroe situation is overrated. As somebody pointed out last summer, Hunter had one good month and the rest of his season wasn't overwhelming. His production can be replaced.

The big question is can the pitching staff by committee work like it did last year. I've never heard of a staff where the relief pitchers throw more than starters.

It would also be nice to win the regular season sec, something we haven't done in 25 years, something that just amazes me.

[Todd4State]

will be extremely tough for us to get back to Omaha this year. We just lose way too much offense with Frazier and Renfro departing and I don't see the players we have coming in replacing those numbers. I think in the end, offense will be our Achilles heel...........

I agree that it will be tough just because going that far is always difficult no matter what. Offensively, I think we will actually be about the same as last year.

[ShotgunDawg]

will be extremely tough for us to get back to Omaha this year. We just lose way too much offense with Frazier and Renfro departing and I don't see the players we have coming in replacing those numbers. I think in the end, offense will be our Achilles heel...........

Your right, we don't have as good of players replacing those, but I think you are looking at this the wrong way. Scoring runs is about hitting throughout the lineup and team offense, not just two players.

While you are correct that we are not replacing Renfroe and Franzier with players of equal or better talent, we should get more offense out of 3rd base (Humphreys), 1st base (Wes Rea found his power stroke late in the year and hopefully it will continue), and, while Ammarti was a good catcher, he was a poor hitter. So we should also get more offense out of the catcher position.

If all three of those things happen, and some I am not even referencing, the total offensive output of the lineup should be greater than last season. Which, of course, is all that matters.

[Tough Dawg]

His production was down, but his presence in the lineup effected how other teams pitched to our lineup. The threat was always there. That threat is what will be tough to replace.

While the numbers are one thing to look at, but there not everything.

[Will James]

Nobody has a 50% chance at Omaha when the year starts, nobody.

I'd put our chances around 35% based on the odds of winning a 4 team regional AND a super

[Will James]

I actually disagree with Todd. It is my hypothesis that EVERY team that makes the postseason has a minimal level of pitching that allowed them to get there. Of course great pitching helps but once you are in, offense is the variable that comes into play. Look at your Stony Brooks, Samfords, etc type of teams that make runs. They are the ones scoring 7 runs a game during the year. I'm on my phone but will link the numbers from a post on SPS concerning this hypothesis showing where teams ranked in ERA and RUNS/Game. The offense had more top ranked sides than the pitching.

[Saltydog]

even close to having the kind of arm he had out there.........Teams were scared to take that extra base on him and while I know it's hard to calculate, his arm saved us some runs last year........

[The Croom Diaries]

We have as good of a chance as we could ever have. It doesn't get much better than expecting to host a Regional with potential for a national seed. If you're in that range you're sweating yourself up to get to Omaha as best as you can, and like others have said crazy things can happen in baseball but at least you know the team is more than capable.

I don't think the pitching situation will be the same as last year. Keep in mind that it evolved into that in the postseason, but Girodo only pitched more than a couple of inning once before the Regional. Pollorena was the Friday night starter but made two postseason starts - one of which was 1 inning in Game two if the national championship series. Fitts didn't make a start until the last week of the season - the staff was never intended to turn out like it did. Lindgren and Woodruff will be back among others and we should get back to a traditional pitching staff. If those two can live up to their potential and hype we could be in for an excellent year.

[Goat Holder]

WOW!! So terrible. The baseball tournament is perfect the way it is. Only problem is that it's drawn out too long in Omaha. So you want SINGLE elimination in baseball? Or triple??? Just trying to understand what's SEEMS to be an incredibly ignorant take. Just being honest.

[bully99]

Todd, is there anything on the horizon as far as recruiting is concerned.

[The Croom Diaries]

WOW!! So terrible. The baseball tournament is perfect the way it is. Only problem is that it's drawn out too long in Omaha. So you want SINGLE elimination in baseball? Or triple??? Just trying to understand what's SEEMS to be an incredibly ignorant take. Just being honest.

I believe the point of his statement was that only about half of the best teams even make it to Omaha. It's just the nature of baseball, and the tourney compounds it a little.

I'd rather see best 2 of 3 from 64 down to two, play the final 8 teams in Omaha. It would just be one additional series and in the 15 days from the start of Regionals to the start of CWS there is time to play it giving pitchers full rest, plus school is out.

[Todd4State]

Todd, is there anything on the horizon as far as recruiting is concerned.

Other than the pitcher that committed in December for the class of 2016, I don't expect anything until the spring. We'll pick up a few commitments for this class and next year and then in July and August we'll finish out the 2015 class as far as the spring signees go.

[maroonmania]

It's a crap shoot. Sat in the stands in 1984 and 1989 and watched what I thought were the two best teams of the Polk era lose to inferior teams one game away from Omaha. It's tougher to get to Omaha today because of the super regionals and playing a very tough opponent, go ask the bears.

I think the Hunter Renfroe situation is overrated. As somebody pointed out last summer, Hunter had one good month and the rest of his season wasn't overwhelming. His production can be replaced.

The big question is can the pitching staff by committee work like it did last year. I've never heard of a staff where the relief pitchers throw more than starters.

It would also be nice to win the regular season sec, something we haven't done in 25 years, something that just amazes me.

Two reasons in my view Polk's teams never really lived up to their potential. First, Polk never put enough emphasis on pitching depth. Polk always had 2 to 3 really good pitchers and little to nothing behind them. Takes more than that in tournament baseball. That issue especially sunk the '85 team once Morgan was injured. Second, Polk's teams always played "passive" baseball because Polk had a passive personality and coached that way. Cohen is intense and his team plays with intensity, aggression and a sense of urgency. Cohen's style lends itself to his team having an "edge" of competitiveness and I never felt we had that with Polk. I always felt Polk's "that's baseball" attitude totally permeated his teams even though we had tremendous talent at times.

[Quaoarsking]

WOW!! So terrible. The baseball tournament is perfect the way it is. Only problem is that it's drawn out too long in Omaha. So you want SINGLE elimination in baseball? Or triple??? Just trying to understand what's SEEMS to be an incredibly ignorant take. Just being honest.

??? Who advocated or implicitly advocated single elimination? No one ever?

The fact that the best teams routinely get eliminated before Omaha should be proof enough that the tournament's format isn't very good. Baseball is not the sport where a 4-team double elimination tournament over a single weekend will usually see the best team win.

As for a better format, I'm just not sure. I've seen proposals for 8 8-team "regionals" where each is a full round robin. Every team playing 7 games is more likely to send the best team in each regional to Omaha, but it would create a whole lot of "meaningless" games near the end that could skew the result. Maybe the better solution would be to cut down the tournament from 64 to just 16 teams, play the Super Regionals, and then go to Omaha. At least you wouldn't be able to go 10-14 in your conference and then have a lucky streak and be the national champion anymore (2007). At least you wouldn't be able to coast the whole season, come in with an RPI of 90 and then turn around be the national champion anymore (2008).

Omaha's double-elimination format sucks too, but it's probably too engrained to change it.

[Coach34]

Nobody has a 50% chance at Omaha when the year starts, nobody.

I base my 50% on this:

1. We are most likely going to be in the top 4 of the SEC and host a regional. We are going to be better than last year
2. With our pitching and D, we have a distinct advantage playing at DNF. We have built our team to fit the ballpark.
3. So for me- it will be shocking if we dont win our Regional.
4. Once you get to the Supers- it's a 50/50 proposition. 2 real good teams going at for 2/3

Now Will James can get on here and hammer away at all kinds of stats and show that it's not 50%- but for me it is based on I think us winning our Regional this year to be 100%

[Will James]

but for me it is based on I think us winning our Regional this year to be 100%

Well yeah, that's exactly where we differ because I have us winning the regional at 70%

[Coach34]

I look at UCLA and see the similarities...they made 3 straight CWS trips with strong pitching and D...it takes good luck and staying reasonably healthy, but that is definitely the recipe for success with these new bats. And our bigass park helps play to that

[curmudgeon]

I'd like this format.

1. Get rid of conference tournaments. They are meaningless. I'd rather see the best season-wide from the minor conferences rather than see the team that got hot one weekend.

2. Go to eight, eight team regionals. Format should be like this Seeds 1,4,5 and 8 on one side of the bracket, seeds, 2, 3, 6 and 7 on the other. Pod winners play a single regional championship game.

3. Same format in Omaha, except keep the best of three in the championship.

[MsStateBaseball]

Recruiting for 2014 class: expect at least 1 JC OF and 1 Fr OF, we lose maybe 11 off roster via graduate or draft, we have signed 9. Way too early to say what signees we lose if any. I think we sign more JCs than Fr in summer.

[War Machine Dawg]

Getting to Omaha is always a crapshoot, but I really like our chances. Our pitching should be deeper and better than last season, which is scary. The question mark is offense. We'll see what happens, but I think the offense will be fine. I look for Grizzly Rea to step up and be a masher. Detz will get on base. The big problem will be what we do in CF if CT continues struggling at the plate. Hopefully Cohen will have a quick hook if he starts out slow, but we all know how much the Intense Bastard likes his "experienced" players.

[engie]

I'd like this format.

1. Get rid of conference tournaments. They are meaningless. I'd rather see the best season-wide from the minor conferences rather than see the team that got hot one weekend.

2. Go to eight, eight team regionals. Format should be like this Seeds 1,4,5 and 8 on one side of the bracket, seeds, 2, 3, 6 and 7 on the other. Pod winners play a single regional championship game.

3. Same format in Omaha, except keep the best of three in the championship.

Hate that part. Baseball should never, ever be single elimination.

[Todd4State]

Getting to Omaha is always a crapshoot, but I really like our chances. Our pitching should be deeper and better than last season, which is scary. The question mark is offense. We'll see what happens, but I think the offense will be fine. I look for Grizzly Rea to step up and be a masher. Detz will get on base. The big problem will be what we do in CF if CT continues struggling at the plate. Hopefully Cohen will have a quick hook if he starts out slow, but we all know how much the Intense Bastard likes his "experienced" players.

If CT struggles, we have Robson. CT has a lot of value with his defense though, which is why Cohen tends to be a little bit more patient with him.

[Todd4State]

Hate that part. Baseball should never, ever be single elimination.

You mean like the SEC Tournament where we only lost one game last year because they all of a sudden decide that after three games the SEC is going to start worrying about pitchers arms? Yep- I've got to agree with you there.

[Todd4State]

Recruiting for 2014 class: expect at least 1 JC OF and 1 Fr OF, we lose maybe 11 off roster via graduate or draft, we have signed 9. Way too early to say what signees we lose if any. I think we sign more JCs than Fr in summer.

If we get Vallot next year, we could use Gavin Collins in the outfield. That would give us an outfield with something like Swinarski, Robson, and Collins with maybe Cody Brown and Rooker mixed in. I also think that Cole Gordon is going to be a guy that could potentially have an impact in the outfield. If we get a JUCO OF, it may depend in part on whether or not they think Demarcus will come back (I don't think he will) and the progress of the young OF's.

[Goat Holder]

Best team doesn't always nor should they always win. The WINNER wins.

A tournament's, ANY tournament's, job is to determine a champion on the field. The phrase 'best team' is irrelevant once a playoff has started.

Just curious, how do you feel about the NCAA basketball tourney?

[messageboardsuperhero]

Best team doesn't always nor should they always win. The WINNER wins.

A tournament's, ANY tournament's, job is to determine a champion on the field. The phrase 'best team' is irrelevant once a playoff has started.

Just curious, how do you feel about the NCAA basketball tourney?

Agreed.

I never want a single elimination round in baseball, but the "better team" doesn't always win in the postseason- that's just the nature of baseball playoffs.

[Quaoarsking]

Best team doesn't always nor should they always win. The WINNER wins.

A tournament's, ANY tournament's, job is to determine a champion on the field. The phrase 'best team' is irrelevant once a playoff has started.

Just curious, how do you feel about the NCAA basketball tourney?

... a well-designed tournament will generally put the best teams in the best position to win. For example, the lowest seed to win the NCAA Basketball Tournament in the last 20+ years was a 4-seed, and even that only happened once. The NCAA Baseball Tournament has had the equivalent of a 5, 12, and 13 win just in the last decade. Baseball is way too much of a crapshoot to settle in 4-team double elimination tournaments. Bad teams make the tournament and can easily do well in it, even win it. The basketball tournament resembles chalk for the most part. If the basketball tournament were full of upsets and randomness all across the bracket, it would need to be modified.


I really don't see how you can't see the difference. If the "best team" doesn't win, fine, but it should be because they were beaten in a fair, well-designed tournament, not some random crapshoot. We might as well just flip slightly-weighted coins.

[Political Hack]

Via a Home Super Regional - 40%
Via an Away Super Regional - 32%

[berr6728]

todd4state, Demarcus is a sr. this year so he will definetly not come back

Darryl Berryhill
Class of 1963/65
Box 13 DNF/PDS
berr6728@bellsouth.net
1-225-205-1499

[engie]

todd4state, Demarcus is a sr. this year so he will definetly not come back

Junior. Received a medical redshirt for 2011. The info is incorrect on the hailstate site...
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/12222/m_20140112-akpg-29kb.jpg

Don't really think it will matter. Think he probably finishes his degree and gets drafted this year and leaves -- and I couldn't blame him if he did.

[War Machine Dawg]

If CT struggles, we have Robson. CT has a lot of value with his defense though, which is why Cohen tends to be a little bit more patient with him.

And I get that. I'm a big fan of Robson, but he was pretty raw last year. And playing summer ball against a bunch of nobodies in Canada this summer couldn't have helped his development all that much.

I actually just looked and saw CT hit .281 last year. I was shocked to see that, but that's playable with his D. Still think his plate approach sucks, though. He peaked as a freshman.

[Todd4State]

And I get that. I'm a big fan of Robson, but he was pretty raw last year. And playing summer ball against a bunch of nobodies in Canada this summer couldn't have helped his development all that much.

I actually just looked and saw CT hit .281 last year. I was shocked to see that, but that's playable with his D. Still think his plate approach sucks, though. He peaked as a freshman.

Actually Robson played in the New England Collegiate League this past summer which is one of the most respected for freshmen. He has already been invited to the Cape Cod League for next year. Robson had a more difficult adjustment because not only was he going up against SEC pitching, but he was doing so in a foreign country. He had a few glimpses in SEC play- he got an opposite field double against Florida that impressed me and he picked up some game winning hits against Alabama.

I believe that most of CT's problems are due to him being hurt for much of his sophomore and junior years- and I think that has affected his stroke, and subsequently his approach at the plate to try to compensate. As you see- he's not as bad as he's made out to be by some of our fans. With him being a senior and hopefully healthy, I'm hopeful he can hit at least .300 if not better. And while his hitting has been disappointing, it's hard to quantify the runs he saves with his defense using the stats that MSU gives us.

[Todd4State]

Here's something about CT that really surprised me. In SEC play, he had a higher average, OBP, and more RBI's than Alex Detz. He also had a higher average and OBP than Adam Frazier- and Frazier only had two more RBI's than CT.

[Schultzy]

Here's something about CT that really surprised me. In SEC play, he had a higher average, OBP, and more RBI's than Alex Detz. He also had a higher average and OBP than Adam Frazier- and Frazier only had two more RBI's than CT.

That is hard to believe. It reminds me that down eight to nothing on Sunday in Oxford and about to get swept late in the season our tournament hopes looked iffy.

We came back and won that game which turned our season around. We were a very different team after that.

Back to Ct... He needs to stay on top of the ball more...too many lazy pops to left field. One or two more hits per weekend would make us so much better offensively.

[bully99]

We were down 6-0 to the bears. CT's problems have been injuries.