Severe Weather Threat: December 21

[TheRef]

Okay. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued their Day 2 Convective Outlook and here is what they've come up with.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
So basically all of LA, the AR Delta, and over half of MS are in the Moderate Risk area for Saturday. This means that they are predicting a good chance of severe weather this Saturday. The main threats associated with this system are high winds and tornadoes. Most of the threat will be later on Saturday so plan accordingly.

[bully99]

Ref, you think they might upgrade it to a PDS Saturday.?

[TheRef]

Ref, you think they might upgrade it to a PDS Saturday.?

Way too early to tell at this moment. They usually reserve PDS for watches/warnings. The word on the Twittersphere however is that there will be a large gathering of storm chasers in the Ark-La-Miss for this event.

[TheRef]

FWIW, Greg Forbes has assigned a Tor:Con value of 6 for the area which is about what I expected given the Moderate Risk.

[starkvegasdawg]

Way too early to tell at this moment. They usually reserve PDS for watches/warnings. The word on the Twittersphere however is that there will be a large gathering of storm chasers in the Ark-La-Miss for this event.
I'll be one of them, ref. Can't wait.

[TheRef]

I, however, will be back in the promised land (Starkville) for my grandfather's 97th birthday. If it wasn't for that, I'd be at home grabbing the truck and finding me a nice spotting area just south of my location.

[DLGDawg]

FWIW, Greg Forbes has assigned a Tor:Con value of 6 for the area which is about what I expected given the Moderate Risk.

What was tor/con 04/27/2011?

[TheRef]

What was tor/con 04/27/2011?

I believe it was 8/9. They had high risk on the Day 2 outlook.

[starkvegasdawg]

I, however, will be back in the promised land (Starkville) for my grandfather's 97th birthday. If it wasn't for that, I'd be at home grabbing the truck and finding me a nice spotting area just south of my location.

What are some good viewing spots in/around Greenville?

[DLGDawg]

Thanks. Hopefully we won't see another 4/27 for hundreds of years.

[TheRef]

What are some good viewing spots in/around Greenville?

Go South of town to the GHEC. You can't miss it. It's on the East side of Highway 1. East of town you can line up East of Leland and look across the fields. Another good option could be Highway 438 which is South of town. If you have to go North of town, I'd suggest going towards Winterville and setting up near the Indian Mounds.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Here's a link to the TVNweather Live Chasing feed. This is a portal or dashboard type of application where you can follow storm chasers on the map and get live feeds from the car's camera when they're chasing tornadoes.
http://tvnweather.com/live
/Thread Hijack

[TheRef]

Here's a link to the TVNweather Live Chasing feed. This is a portal or dashboard type of application where you can follow storm chasers on the map and get live feeds from the car's camera when they're chasing tornadoes.
http://tvnweather.com/live
/Thread Hijack

Not much of a hijack since this is a weather related thread. I'm sure Reed will be in the area.

[bully99]

At one point on that day Forbes had a Tor-Con of 10. May be only 10 he's given since he started it a few years ago.

[TheRef]

At one point on that day Forbes had a Tor-Con of 10. May be only 10 he's given since he started it a few years ago.

I believe it was late in the day about 3 or 4 hours before the Tuscaloosa tornado.

[starkvegasdawg]

Go South of town to the GHEC. You can't miss it. It's on the East side of Highway 1. East of town you can line up East of Leland and look across the fields. Another good option could be Highway 438 which is South of town. If you have to go North of town, I'd suggest going towards Winterville and setting up near the Indian Mounds.

Thanks. Greenville looks to be about center of the shaded area the NWC has outlined as ground zero. Would love to stay in ms if possible. Last time went into Arkansas just south of Eudora and caught my one and only tornado so far.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

So when can we expect this weather to enter MS and how long will it be here?

[TheRef]

Thanks. Greenville looks to be about center of the shaded area the NWC has outlined as ground zero. Would love to stay in ms if possible. Last time went into Arkansas just south of Eudora and caught my one and only tornado so far.

Greenville definitely seems to be the epicenter. Also, you have many routes to go from there. Highway 1, 61, 82, 65, and 49 to some extent.

[TheRef]

So when can we expect this weather to enter MS and how long will it be here?

SPC seems to be saying around sunset. This is all dependent on how fast this front comes through and will be better through the updates.

[TheRef]

For those of you curious to know the thinking for the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS. Here is a video of their special weather briefing for the severe weather event.

http://youtu.be/Qcje892MFOQ

[starkvegasdawg]

For those of you curious to know the thinking for the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS. Here is a video of their special weather briefing for the severe weather event.

http://youtu.be/Qcje892MFOQ

Looks like they are saying more squall line event and not discrete supercells.

[notsofarawaydawg]

Here's another weather site I follow .. ChaserTV (http://www.chasertv.com/)

[TheRef]

Looks like it's starting up just South of Vicksburg. I see radar-indicated rotation on the lowest two tilts between Vicksburg and Port Gibson.

[TheRef]

Tornado warning for Warren, Claiborne, and Hinds Counties until 5:30 CST.

[Drugdog]

Hey Ref, did you grow up in greenvegas? That's my hometown.

[TheRef]

Hey Ref, did you grow up in greenvegas? That's my hometown.

I sure did. I'm actually here right now. Went to Washington for High School.

[Drugdog]

Me too. Class of 83.

[Drugdog]

Urban legend is that Gville can't be hit by Tornado because of the levees..

[TheRef]

Urban legend is that Gville can't be hit by Tornado because of the levees..

I always thought it was the curse of the bridge. Winterville and Leland, however, are not protected.

[Drugdog]

My dad used to own the apts on upper lake Ferguson Road. About 35 yrs ago a tornado hit by them. My wife took a pix of two tornados in a cotton field off hwy 61 after leaving DSU. Delta weather can be crazy. Wish I was chewing down on some tamales and fries from Does..man I miss that place.

[TheRef]

Congrats, guys. We've been upgraded to 7 on Tor:Con by Greg Forbes.

[DownwardDawg]

Tornado warning for Warren, Claiborne, and Hinds Counties until 5:30 CST.

Damn. I thought all this was for tomorrow. How about Lamar county?

[TheRef]

Damn. I thought all this was for tomorrow. How about Lamar county?

Just a rogue cell. It wanted to be a rebel. No pun intended.

[DownwardDawg]

Just a rogue cell. It wanted to be a rebel. No pun intended.
Lol. Ok thanks. Keep this thread updated. Love these reports!!!

[TheRef]

Lol. Ok thanks. Keep this thread updated. Love these reports!!!

I'll be away from a computer for most of the day tomorrow. I'll update when I can though. I'm sure Starkvegasdawg and Slick will be watching the weather pretty closely so maybe they can update as much as possible. I'll try to update tomorrow morning with the latest NWS discussion and other things. Y'all just stay safe and have a weather radio nearby during this event.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'll be away from a computer for most of the day tomorrow. I'll update when I can though. I'm sure Starkvegasdawg and Slick will be watching the weather pretty closely so maybe they can update as much as possible. I'll try to update tomorrow morning with the latest NWS discussion and other things. Y'all just stay safe and have a weather radio nearby during this event.

Indeed. I'm in greenwood now and depending on how things look will probably set up in Greenville tomorrow and then go from there depending on where storms fire. Tor:con for the delta region is now 7/10 so things looking ripe for some explosive storms. My guess is that any storms that develop ahead of the main line will have an excellent chance of going tornadic. Ref had excellent advice with the weather radio. One of the best investments you will ever make. Can get a handheld for $40. My advice. Take every warning seriously. Much better to take cover on a false alarm than to ignore a warning and it be the real deal. Lastly, any tornadoes forming in the main squall line have good chance of being rain wrapped and impossible to see. Will update when I can here but will mainly be updating on twitter. Find me at @mschaser.

[hells bells]

This is very good info. Please keep it up.

[TheRef]

Reading the latest discussions, it looks like there will be two lines. One line of discrete cells which will be the main tornado threat with the squall line soon afterwards which will carry high winds >50 mph. This is definitely a situation I'd watch closely. Like I said earlier, I will post as much as I can given the situation I will be in. But the main threat for MS will begin around 4 pm from early indications but that can change very quickly. I'll try to give an early-morning bump while I'm on the road (not driving, of course. Safety first.). But don't be surprised to see a 25 degree change in temperatures from pre-front and post-front. It doesn't look like we will have any wintry precipitation chances after this line pushes through so what's happening in OK doesn't look to happen to us in MS. So y'all be safe and stay "weather-aware". Keep a reliable source of weather information nearby all day tomorrow, if you can.

[TheRef]

SPC just did their Day 1 Outlook which is valid for tomorrow. We are still in the Moderate Risk categorical area. We are also within the 15% hatched area. Which means that we have a 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of the area but also a 10% or greater possibility of EF2 or greater tornadoes within 25 miles of the area. The greatest threat associated with this system, however, is high winds. The Ark-La-Miss area has a chance of >70-mph(!!!) winds. We are in the 45% hatched area which means it's very likely to see damaging winds associated with this system. Now although hail cannot be ruled out, it is very unlikely that hail will form with this system. As I read the discussion from SPC, it specifically states that tornadoes, some severe, are possible throughout the lower MS valley in the afternoon of Saturday. With this in mind, it is very likely that the system will weaken as the night progresses but this does not mean that the risk for tornadoes is gone. Instability is relatively strong for this time of year. So with that in mind, this could either be a good, or bad, day depending on how quickly these two lines merge together. If it merges after sundown as the models suggest, then this could be a long day for meteorologists as the threat for isolated strong tornadoes become a very real threat. Keep a weather radio nearby tomorrow, as I keep saying. Don't take warnings lightly, all it takes for one tornado to change your life. Ask the people of Yazoo City and Smithville. It only takes one.

[TheRef]

Early morning bump

[starkvegasdawg]

Saw on the latest discussion they are starting to discuss more and more the discrete and semi-discrete supercells.

[TheRef]

Saw on the latest discussion they are starting to discuss more and more the discrete and semi-discrete supercells.

Tornader weather!!!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Tornader weather!!!!

Reminds me of an old beavis and butthead cartoon. They were under a tornado warning and wanted to go see it. One asked the other where they should go. The answer from the other, "to the trailer park, dumbass."

[TheRef]

Reminds me of an old beavis and butthead cartoon. They were under a tornado warning and wanted to go see it. One asked the other where they should go. The answer from the other, "to the trailer park, dumbass."

An inconvenient truth. Hopefully no one will be hurt or killed today with this event. The line seems to be running a line from LR to Shreveport and extended further each way. Y'all be safe out there.

[Westdawg]

I am traveling on this storm front....have been in the rain since yesterday afternoon since leaving NM. Been in it ever since. Just about to Monroe on I-20 and finally ahead of the rain but the wind is terrible right now. You boys better get ready. Gonna be a strong storm

[DownwardDawg]

Indeed. I'm in greenwood now and depending on how things look will probably set up in Greenville tomorrow and then go from there depending on where storms fire. Tor:con for the delta region is now 7/10 so things looking ripe for some explosive storms. My guess is that any storms that develop ahead of the main line will have an excellent chance of going tornadic. Ref had excellent advice with the weather radio. One of the best investments you will ever make. Can get a handheld for $40. My advice. Take every warning seriously. Much better to take cover on a false alarm than to ignore a warning and it be the real deal. Lastly, any tornadoes forming in the main squall line have good chance of being rain wrapped and impossible to see. Will update when I can here but will mainly be updating on twitter. Find me at @mschaser.

I love my weather radio.

[starkvegasdawg]

I love my weather radio.
Cheapest peace of mind you will ever buy.

[TheRef]

Cheapest peace of mind you will ever buy.

Now that's a genius selling phrase. We need to start using that.

[TheRef]

Mike Bettes will be broadcasting live from my hometown of Greenville in about an hour on the weather channel. That should be an indication of what they are thinking. It looks like the front moved faster than expected and MS will start being affected around noon. Be safe everyone.

[starkvegasdawg]

Noooooo!!!!!! Storm is getting close and my truck decided it needs to be worked on. Hope I found some fast mechanics.

[starkvegasdawg]

Supercell thunderstorms exploding in Louisiana. Expecting them to go tornadic.

[TheRef]

Supercell thunderstorms exploding in Louisiana. Expecting them to go tornadic.

Well that's marvelous. And so the longest day begins.

[starkvegasdawg]

Back in the saddle. Truck has been pronounced healthy. The chase is on. I shall not trust express oil in Starkville again but that's a topic for another day.

[TheRef]

Tornado watch 532 in effect for the Mississippi Delta. And so it begins. Wording very strong with mentions of intense tornadoes.

[starkvegasdawg]

Tornado watch 532 in effect for the Mississippi Delta. And so it begins. Wording very strong with mentions of intense tornadoes.
still in greenwood waiting to see what develops where. Don't have the time to go all over creation.

[TheRef]

still in greenwood waiting to see what develops where. Don't have the time to go all over creation.

Reed Timmer is setting up in Vicksburg. I think Greenwood is a good staging place for now.

[CadaverDawg]

Not to hijack the thread, but can you guys tell me what you think. I am headed from Madison to Hattiesburg today for a family Christmas, and will have nieces and nephews in the car with me and my wife. That being said...it is not worth putting these kids in danger just to go to a Christmas party for a few hours and be on the road for almost 4 hours. Do you think this is severe enough for me to say no to the Burg today and tonight? I know you can't be sure, but any advice from you guys would be appreciated.

[starkvegasdawg]

Not to hijack the thread, but can you guys tell me what you think. I am headed from Madison to Hattiesburg today for a family Christmas! and will have nieces and nephews in the car with me and my wife. That being said...it is not worth putting these kids in danger just to go to a Christmas party for a few hours and be on the road for almost 4 hours. Do you think this is severe enough for me to say no to the Burg today and tonight? I know you can't be sure, but any advice from you guys would be appreciated.

Biggest threat area is going to be just north of you. That being said you are definitely at risk. I think timing for hburg is later tonight. Should be ok for when you will be on road. Headed to Greenville now to get in heart of danger area. Mom and wife are less than thrilled.

[TheRef]

Biggest threat area is going to be just north of you. That being said you are definitely at risk. I think timing for hburg is later tonight. Should be ok for when you will be on road. Headed to Greenville now to get in heart of danger area. Mom and wife are less than thrilled.

Agreed. While the threat is still strong, it's not nearly as strong as anything north of I-20. Also, the timing is much later for the burg.

[starkvegasdawg]

Storm south of Greenville trying to show rotation. Will stop in Leland to monitor.

[starkvegasdawg]

Storm south of Greenville trying to show rotation. Will stop in Leland to monitor.
Now starting to fall apart.

[TheRef]

Storm south of Greenville trying to show rotation. Will stop in Leland to monitor.

I'm trying to watch it from here. It's right in the band of unusable data on radar so it's hard to see rotation on here. I'm sure you could see rotation better there.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm trying to watch it from here. It's right in the band of unusable data on radar so it's hard to see rotation on here. I'm sure you could see rotation better there.
Got visual. Ragged wall cloud sucking scud up like it has a straw. Slight rotation but no funnel.

[TheRef]

Got visual. Ragged wall cloud sucking scud up like it has a straw. Slight rotation but no funnel.

Keep an eye on it. Plentiful moisture and instability.

[starkvegasdawg]

Keep an eye on it. Plentiful moisture and instability.

Doesn't look like its in any hurry to do anything. Think I am going to sit tight and wait for the next wave to come through.

[TheRef]

Doesn't look like its in any hurry to do anything. Think I am going to sit tight and wait for the next wave to come through.

Yeah...looks like you have a cell headed your way from Lake Providence.

[starkvegasdawg]

May regret this decision but heading back to greenwood. Storms in ark moving too fast to get ahead of. Also look to be the main squall line. See storms down around Vicksburg heading towards greenwood. Going to go back and wait on them.

[TheRef]

May regret this decision but heading back to greenwood. Storms in ark moving too fast to get ahead of. Also look to be the main squall line. See storms down around Vicksburg heading towards greenwood. Going to go back and wait on them.

Good luck, buddy.

[TheRef]

Greenwood should be looking at the Belzoni cell for effect. If you want to head towards Winona, you have a cell heading that way too.

[starkvegasdawg]

Greenwood should be looking at the Belzoni cell for effect. If you want to head towards Winona, you have a cell heading that way too.

Just back to greenwood. Storms are looking less than impressive.

[starkvegasdawg]

Seems as if all the cells forming ahead of main line just can't get going.

[starkvegasdawg]

I knew it. Where I set out to go over in ark but changed my mind is now in tornado warnings.

[WeWillScrewItUp]

What part of Arkansas? I'm from about an hour across the river from Greenville heading up 65. I don't live there anymore but still have friends and family so I'm curious?

[jbjones]

Currently we're (Lowndes, like nearly everyone in NE MS) under a Tornado watch. The radar is looking rather sporty out to the West. I can't run any WRF models from home, but I'll rely on you Wxperts to call the real shots.

If, by any chance, y'all are interested to what happens in West Lowndes my weather station is online. It updates hourly; The web address is in my profile.

-JB

EDIT: Apparently there may be something wrong with my collector. It has rained a bit here, but I've shown zero measurement. Probably a hefty spider-web has wrapped up the collector cups. Sounds stupid, but it happened earlier. Don't count on the precip measurement to be accurate. My apologies. Every other data point will be unaffected and accurate.

[Barking 13]

Currently we're (Lowndes, like nearly everyone in NE MS) under a Tornado watch. The radar is looking rather sporty out to the West. I can't run any WRF models from home, but I'll rely on you Wxperts to call the real shots.

If, by any chance, y'all are interested to what happens in West Lowndes my weather station is online. It updates hourly; The web address is in my profile.

-JB


Thanks man, I may check it out.. I'm in Caledonia...

[starkvegasdawg]

What part of Arkansas? I'm from about an hour across the river from Greenville heading up 65. I don't live there anymore but still have friends and family so I'm curious?

Sorry. Was driving back home to Starkville and was unable to monitor. As you probably guessed by now you drove through the heart of where it was warned. You may have been behind it by a bit.

[WeWillScrewItUp]

Sorry. Was driving back home to Starkville and was unable to monitor. As you probably guessed by now you drove through the heart of where it was warned. You may have been behind it by a bit.

I called my parents to see how it was and they said they had high winds and a lot of rain today. Said it never got any worse than that.

[TheRef]

Okay. I'm back at my apartment and around my main computer, so here we go. As many of you know we had quite a few tornadoes spin up throughout the state today. One such event reportedly had a fatality associated with it, according to a message from MEMA. The Starkville area will be affected by the main squall line soon. With this, expect heavy winds and a brief period of heavy rain. Cloud-to-ground lightning may not be associated with this front as the stable layer is quite strong and will prevent most of the lightning. I'm sorry I wasn't able to provide as much coverage of this event as many of you, myself included, would have liked. I would like to thank Starkvegasdawg for keeping this thread going and others who have contributed in part to this thread. I will try to keep this thread maintained and give updates until this system is out of the state of MS unless otherwise needed.

[TheRef]

Two deaths are now being reported by MEMA in association with these storms. One in Coahoma County, the other in Jasper County. Others injured and there is damage to property reported. Complete list and press release from MEMA can be found here--> http://www.msema.org/update-two-deaths-several-injuries-and-storm-damage-reported-to-mema/

[bully99]

Ref, good job by you and the gang
Take the rest of the night off.

[TheRef]

I'm proud to say that the major severe threat is over for the State of Mississippi for the rest of the night. Glad everyone made it through this. Keep the families of those who died today in your prayers.

[DownwardDawg]

Not even wet in Oak Grove yet. Ok, maybe a little damp from a earlier shower but main line of storms hasn't reached us yet. Like y'all predicted, doesn't look too bad this far south.