Paps to the Yankees??

[bully99]

Several reports that the Phillies and Yankees are talking trade for Papelbon. That would be interesting. Phillies would have to eat a lot of Paps salary.

[Todd4State]

Papelbon has made some comments to the media that the Phillies haven't been too fond of. I'm 90% sure he will be moved and the Yankees are a fit.

[dawgs]

makes no sense for the yanks to make that move.

[War Machine Dawg]

makes no sense for the yanks to make that move.

Because the best closer of all time is coming out of retirement? Oh wait.......

[Todd4State]

makes no sense for the yanks to make that move.

It makes a lot of sense. As WMD said they lose Rivera. They have also lost Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain.

[dawgs]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10150907/the-new-normal-new-york-yankees

and the yanks aren't winning shit anytime soon. they are better off letting all these terrible contracts for aging players expire while holding onto and developing a stud farm system (which was the core of their run in the 90s and 00s - jeter, posada, rivera, pettite, williams, etc. were all home grown guys). also, david robertson is a plenty good enough option at closer and much cheaper than paps. hell, he's arguably been a better pitcher than paps the last 2 years and he's 5 years younger. don't tell me yall buy into the need to overpay for a proven closer.

[Political Hack]

Paps wants the hell out of Philly and Jacoby Ellsbury is one of his best friends. Makes sense from those standpoints.

[dawgs]

Paps wants the hell out of Philly and Jacoby Ellsbury is one of his best friends. Makes sense from those standpoints.

still not making any sense for the yanks. of course philly and paps want to part ways, philly is rebuilding and would prefer young prospects and saving money on guys that are highly unlikely to be on their next contending team, and paps wants to contend.

[Political Hack]

yanks need to replace a closer, right?

[Dawg61]

That'd be a hell of an opportunity for Paps but also an impossible one trying to replace the greatest closer ever in the media crazed NYC.

[Todd4State]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10150907/the-new-normal-new-york-yankees

and the yanks aren't winning shit anytime soon. they are better off letting all these terrible contracts for aging players expire while holding onto and developing a stud farm system (which was the core of their run in the 90s and 00s - jeter, posada, rivera, pettite, williams, etc. were all home grown guys). also, david robertson is a plenty good enough option at closer and much cheaper than paps. hell, he's arguably been a better pitcher than paps the last 2 years and he's 5 years younger. don't tell me yall buy into the need to overpay for a proven closer.

While I don't agree with how they've built their team- big contracts and big names are how the Yankees roll.

Robertson is a good pitcher and has the talent to be a closer- but he also only has 8 saves in his career. Relief pitchers are a little bit weird about the roles that they can perform in. Some do better in certain situations than others. Mitchell Boggs was a very good relief pitcher for the Cardinals as a set-up man and then they tried letting him close when Motte went down. He struggled big time and then ended up being released and pitching for the Rockies AAA team. The Yankees should have let Robertson close games out more than he did knowing that Rivera wasn't coming back.

That said- they need relief pitchers in the worst way. They have very little in the farm and it's going to take them a few years to build that up. And as far as salary- we don't know if the Phillies are going to pick up any of Papelbon's salary or not- if a team is unhappy with a player, they may eat it to get rid of him. Plus, the Yankees are saving some money just by losing Cano and Granderson. And then MLB is likely to void A-Rod's contract, which is the REALLY bad one.

[dawgs]

yanks need to replace a closer, right?

a high price closer is the last spot i'd worry about filling on a team i expected to contend. on a non-contender, i would be absolutely fine going with the hot hand in my bullpen as the closer. the yankees aren't winning shit over the next half decade. the yanks are also trying to get under the luxury tax. it's foolish to trade for a high dollar closer when you aren't likely to contend and you are trying to get under the luxury tax. also, as i said above, david robertson has been arguably a better pitcher than paps the past 3 seasons, he has the makeup of a good closer (high Ks, solid BB rate, high % of groundballs), he's 5 years younger than paps, and he's only costing the yanks $3M this year. not to mention if the yanks want the phillies to eat a sizable chunk of pap's contact, they are likely going to have to include their only decent minor league prospect. it's just not a very SMART move for the yanks. robertson would likely essentially replicate pap's numbers in a closing role, they'd save over $10M in salary, they'd keep one of their precious few quality prospects, and they aren't winning a world series with a roster full of 30somethings anytime soon anyway. this is a post-steroids era of baseball, you can't win with an everyday lineup that old.

a closer isn't like a position player, where you can't just stick a 1B in for a departed 2B or something, this is merely shifting a very good bullpen arm from the 8th inning to the 9th inning. because you lose a closer doesn't mean you have to replace him with a closer, you can reassign roles in your bullpen. some of the best closer in baseball last year spent at least a year, many of them spent many years, as set up men before getting a chance to close (johnson, holland, soriano, reed, chapman, romo, balfour, rodnet, mujica, perkins, grilli, janssen, frieri, jansen, uehara, etc). why wouldn't the yankees give robertson a shot? worst case scenario is he chokes and they move on to the next guy, but odds say that robertson handles the job and if not, within a few weeks the yanks will have settled on a closer that is successful 90+% of the time.

[bully99]

Paps is like so many closers over the past 20 years. Has several good years and then his arm goes into decline. Paps problem is that he has lost 4 or 5 mph off his fastball and when you're essentially a one pitch pitcher, he has nothing to fall back on. His attitude and arrogance hasn't won many friends either. The phillies can trade him if they eat his contract. If he's traded and struggles with another team then he'll be released. That's how I see this playing out. Paps just not a real popular guy around the bigs.

[dawgs]

While I don't agree with how they've built their team- big contracts and big names are how the Yankees roll.

Robertson is a good pitcher and has the talent to be a closer- but he also only has 8 saves in his career. Relief pitchers are a little bit weird about the roles that they can perform in. Some do better in certain situations than others. Mitchell Boggs was a very good relief pitcher for the Cardinals as a set-up man and then they tried letting him close when Motte went down. He struggled big time and then ended up being released and pitching for the Rockies AAA team. The Yankees should have let Robertson close games out more than he did knowing that Rivera wasn't coming back.

That said- they need relief pitchers in the worst way. They have very little in the farm and it's going to take them a few years to build that up. And as far as salary- we don't know if the Phillies are going to pick up any of Papelbon's salary or not- if a team is unhappy with a player, they may eat it to get rid of him. Plus, the Yankees are saving some money just by losing Cano and Granderson. And then MLB is likely to void A-Rod's contract, which is the REALLY bad one.

1) did you read the article where the "saved" money from cano and granderson was more than eaten up my mccann, ellsbury, and beltran?

2) if the phillies eat much salary, they'll likely want to talk gary sanchez in return. here's an excerpt from the article i linked for those to lazy to read it (and it appears most of you are since yall are incapable of understanding why this would be a stupid stupid move by the yanks).

"Their farm system is terribly weak; Jason Parks, the chief prospect guru for Baseball Prospectus, recently described it as "[Double-A catcher] Gary Sanchez and a list of interchangeable prospects with reliever profiles or bench futures." By comparison, the Red Sox's farm system is so deep that, according to Baseball America's Ben Badler, they may have as many as 10 of the top 100 prospects in baseball."

3) while motte choked, here's the list of guys that succeeded in the closer role last year that were previous set up guys: johnson, holland, soriano, reed, chapman, romo, balfour, rodney, mujica, perkins, grilli, janssen, frieri, jansen, uehara, even melancon when he took over for an injured grilli in pittsburgh. i'm sure i missed a guy or 2 too, but the point is that usually when a guy is a stud set up man, the skills translate. it's pretty rare that a guy completely falls apart like motte. only other guy i can think of in the last couple years that was a dominant set up guy and fell apart in the closing role was matt thorton for the white sox. and even a lot of his struggles were luck related (BABIP and all that).

4) the point is that big names and big contracts to free agents isn't the way to build a winner under the current MLB CBA and in the post-steroid era. that's why it would be a dumb move for the yanks.

[Dawg61]

The Yanks have given Robertson a shot. Twice and he can't handle it. Paps is proven and proven in high pressure cities (Boston, Philly).

[dawgs]

The Yanks have given Robertson a shot. Twice and he can't handle it. Paps is proven and proven in high pressure cities (Boston, Philly).

1 or 2 games here and there isn't really being given a shot.

also, if the yankees aren't winning it all in 2014 (they aren't with or without paps), why take on that contract that pushes them well beyond the luxury tax? it does not make financial sense at all. if the yankees were a bullpen arm or 2 away from making a world series run, then they'd suck up the luxury tax and the future ramifications as outlined in that grantland article, but with that aging lineup, they aren't going to win either way, so why cost themselves upwards of $50M in luxury tax to land a pick up a closer that might get them to 2 more Ws when they aren't competing for a ring anyway? and that's being awfully generous.

[Political Hack]

Paps played hurt all last year. If he's healthy again his mph should go back up some. also , I'd expect Paps to agree to restructure his contract if he wants out of Philly. And I expect he'd take a hit to get out of there. Therefore he'd lower the contract, Philly would eat some of it, and the new team would eat some of it. All in all, I think he could go after a decent 1-2 year deal if he considers the team a contender.

[Dawg61]

Because the Yanks believe they can win this year.

[dawgs]

Because the Yanks believe they can win this year.

i didn't say they wouldn't do it, i'm saying it's a dumb move to do it.

it's also is counter to their stated goal of getting payroll down to $189M to save over $50 in future luxury tax. the grantland article breaks down some of the numbers, and i'm sure you could find one going even further in depth into the contracts. it's just not a smart move.

[Todd4State]

1) did you read the article where the "saved" money from cano and granderson was more than eaten up my mccann, ellsbury, and beltran?

2) if the phillies eat much salary, they'll likely want to talk gary sanchez in return. here's an excerpt from the article i linked for those to lazy to read it (and it appears most of you are since yall are incapable of understanding why this would be a stupid stupid move by the yanks).

"Their farm system is terribly weak; Jason Parks, the chief prospect guru for Baseball Prospectus, recently described it as "[Double-A catcher] Gary Sanchez and a list of interchangeable prospects with reliever profiles or bench futures." By comparison, the Red Sox's farm system is so deep that, according to Baseball America's Ben Badler, they may have as many as 10 of the top 100 prospects in baseball."

3) while motte choked, here's the list of guys that succeeded in the closer role last year that were previous set up guys: johnson, holland, soriano, reed, chapman, romo, balfour, rodney, mujica, perkins, grilli, janssen, frieri, jansen, uehara, even melancon when he took over for an injured grilli in pittsburgh. i'm sure i missed a guy or 2 too, but the point is that usually when a guy is a stud set up man, the skills translate. it's pretty rare that a guy completely falls apart like motte. only other guy i can think of in the last couple years that was a dominant set up guy and fell apart in the closing role was matt thorton for the white sox. and even a lot of his struggles were luck related (BABIP and all that).

4) the point is that big names and big contracts to free agents isn't the way to build a winner under the current MLB CBA and in the post-steroid era. that's why it would be a dumb move for the yanks.

1. Yes, and did you read what I said about A-Rod and the possibility of the Phillies eating some of or all of the money? Papelbon's contract is 13 million- and then they can decline the option for 2016 if it doesn't work out.

2. Gary Sanchez is not that good- if the Phillies want him and are willing to eat some salary, giving up Sanchez isn't that big of a deal. Actually, if I were the Phillies I would want 2-3 minor league players in return- OR most likely what will happen just dump Papelbon and his salary.

3. Sure there are plenty of guys that have transitioned from set-up guy to closer- BUT there's still the possibility that it won't work out. Until they actually give Robertson a chance, then they won't know if they have another Mariano Rivera or another Mitchell Boggs. And if Robertson goes all Mitchell Boggs on them, then their weak bullpen is even weaker. And then what do you do? The season has started, you have no one in the farm and there are no qulaity pitchers on the free agent market. Getting Papelbon gives them peace of mind that they have at least two guys that they know can succeed in their roles. And regardless of their roles their bullpen is a lot stronger with Papelbon and Robertson than it is with just Robertson in it.

4. You are right it's not the way to build a winner, but the Yankees don't have much of a choice right now either. Building a farm system doesn't happen overnight. Their options are to suck for a few years and then hope their farm system comes up big in 4-5 years OR try to contend by spending a lot of money. They're probably hoping that the guys that they have now will bridge the gap for them until their farm system gets up to speed. But if I was a Yankee fan, I know what I would rather them do in the meantime until the farm system picks up. And they have the resources to spend a lot of money. Papelbon's 13 million dollar contract is not going to kill them.

[Todd4State]

i didn't say they wouldn't do it, i'm saying it's a dumb move to do it.

it's also is counter to their stated goal of getting payroll down to $189M to save over $50 in future luxury tax. the grantland article breaks down some of the numbers, and i'm sure you could find one going even further in depth into the contracts. it's just not a smart move.

They are counting on A-Rod's contract being voided. (And it likely will be) According that article- that would save them 8 million. Papelbon's contract is 13 million- so they only would be gaining 5 million.

[Political Hack]

They are counting on A-Rod's contract being voided. (And it likely will be) According that article- that would save them 8 million. Papelbon's contract is 13 million- so they only would be gaining 5 million.

that's assuming Philly wouldn't have to eat some of it and that won't be the case. Paps will also take a little less if needed to go to a contender.

[dawgs]

1) still a lot of ifs with aroid. and for the phillies to eat pap's contract, they'd have to get a lot of young talent in return. i can't imagine that the yanks have enough in the system to persuade them to eat most of that contract.

2) i didn't say he was, i just merely meant that he was the best the yanks have, which further goes to illustrate my point that the yanks need to just suck it up and suck ass for a few years. you know what happens when you keep signing free agents? you lose high draft picks. the yanks already don't have their 1st round pick in 2014 because of this. you can't build a farm system when you aren't getting to draft elite talent.

3) i literally just listed 16 closers who had good 2013 seasons that transitioned from set up to closer. you listed 1 that failed miserably. i brought up a 2nd that failed from 2 or 3 years ago. i like the odds of rolling with a set up guy transitioning to closing. liking the odds is not saying it's a 100% fool proof plan, nothing is foolproof, even trading for paps or signing another big $$ closer.

4) if you are better off throwing big money at bad contracts for 30+ year old free agents in hopes of being mediocre, you can't effectively build your farm system because you are losing picks. you are also setting yourself up to have overpriced talent and being force to eat a lot of contracts even if you manage to trade these signees for talent. beltran for 2 years is a reasonble deal that the yanks could expect to deal when they suck this year or next for a decent prospect. however guys signed to longer deals and bigger money are tough to deal (looking at sabathia, mccann, tiexiera, ellsbury, etc) because no one wants to be tied to them for more than a year or 2. it's why the astros are bottoming out, because they know it's the fastest way to stockpile talent. it's also why bottom feeders are smart to sign quality vets to 1-2 year deals and then flip them at the trading deadline for more young talent. they aren't signing guys to 5+ year deals. i know the yanks have more $$, but it's just not the way to build a winner anymore and even the yanks have a threshold of what they are willing to spend.

[dawgs]

that's assuming Philly wouldn't have to eat some of it and that won't be the case. Paps will also take a little less if needed to go to a contender.

because teams eat contracts without getting better prospects in return. better prospects that the yanks don't have and even if they did shouldn't be dealing for a 30+ year old closer if they are serious about winning in the future instead of middling along in 2014-2015. it's simple math: the more/better prospects involved = the more $$ the phillies will eat.

also, if paps thinks the yanks are a contender worth taking a pay cut for, then he's sadly mistaken. of course we know he's no necessarily the sharpest tool in the shed, but if he can't see that the yanks roster is in worse shape than the phillies roster he'd be leaving, then i don't know what to tell him. at least the phillies have some trade pieces to get talent back quickly in lee and hamels and a young middle of the order bat to build around in brown.

finally, paps can't restructure his deal to take less money. the MLB CBA literally will not allow it. restructuring is only allowed to benefit the player, and that's pretty much limited to only financial benefit of the player. maybe he'd take a slight pay cut if the 2016 option was guaranteed, but that's about it.

with paps, does anyone think the yanks have a legit shot in the AL east? with paps, i'd put them at best 4th and quite likely 5th. red sox and rays will be better. orioles are almost assuredly going to be better. and the jays have enough talent to put together a run.

[Political Hack]

McCann, Soriano, Jeter, Roberts, Ellsbury, Beltran, Ichiro, etc... they've got pieces to work with to get a line up and could still add more guys if ARod's contract doesn't hold them back.

Pitching is their weak link. Why not fix that by bringing in a proven closer that's now healthy and adding that guy from Japan (I think it's Japan) that everyone wants to help out CC?

[bully99]

Paps salary is 13 million in 2014, 2015 and a vesting option of 13 million in 2016. Vesting would kick in if he "finishes " 55 games in 2015 or a total of 100 games in 2014 and2015. Saw a mlb executive say the phillies would have to eat about half his contract to trade him. There's other possibilities besides the Yankees.

[dawgs]

McCann, Soriano, Jeter, Roberts, Ellsbury, Beltran, Ichiro, etc... they've got pieces to work with to get a line up and could still add more guys if ARod's contract doesn't hold them back.


2004 called...

and what impact bats are out there? do you follow baseball anymore? it's not a free agent fest like it was 10 years ago.

[Will James]

Dawgs is killing it this thread.

[Political Hack]

2004 called...

and what impact bats are out there? do you follow baseball anymore? it's not a free agent fest like it was 10 years ago.

Jeter is old and had a piss poor year when healthy. hilarious. I still think he's a good player that can help the Yankees.

They just added McCann. Roberts and Soriano batted around .250. Ichiro gets on base. I didn't say they were world beaters but I do think it's a decent group to work with.

[bully99]

Mark Texiera should be back and he will help if he stays healthy.

[Dawg61]

IF the Yankees stay healthy they have a very good hitting lineup. That's a big if. They have a ton of big name players so they should have no trouble feeding the thirst their fans have for stars. The Yanks were better than expected last year and that's with missing more than half their 2014 starting lineup. Starting pitching sucks though.

[Will James]

Jeter is old and had a piss poor year when healthy. hilarious. I still think he's a good player that can help the Yankees.

They just added McCann. Roberts and Soriano batted around .250. Ichiro gets on base. I didn't say they were world beaters but I do think it's a decent group to work with.

This post is full of fail, Ichiro sucks now. The Yanks may be

Ellsbury - Above avg hitter... 4 WAR
Jeter - Old. League Average. 1 WAR
Beltran - Old. Aging but still above avg bat. Defensive liability. 2 WAR
McCann - Good. 4 WAR
Teixeira - Above avg hitter, below avg fielder. 2 WAR
A-Rod - Old. Average. 1.5 WAR
Soriano - Old. Below Avg. 1 WAR
Roberts - Below Avg - 1 WAR
Gardner- Avg hitter. good glove. 2.5 WAR

So they are either old or made of glass save McCann. Combined 19 WAR in this lineup. Assuming health all year. Thats shitty. Good for 17th in the MLB last year, again assuming health from all of the best possible lineup out there.

[Will James]

IF the Yankees stay healthy they have a very good hitting lineup..

If it was the mid 2000s, yes.

[Todd4State]

1) still a lot of ifs with aroid. and for the phillies to eat pap's contract, they'd have to get a lot of young talent in return. i can't imagine that the yanks have enough in the system to persuade them to eat most of that contract.

2) i didn't say he was, i just merely meant that he was the best the yanks have, which further goes to illustrate my point that the yanks need to just suck it up and suck ass for a few years. you know what happens when you keep signing free agents? you lose high draft picks. the yanks already don't have their 1st round pick in 2014 because of this. you can't build a farm system when you aren't getting to draft elite talent.

3) i literally just listed 16 closers who had good 2013 seasons that transitioned from set up to closer. you listed 1 that failed miserably. i brought up a 2nd that failed from 2 or 3 years ago. i like the odds of rolling with a set up guy transitioning to closing. liking the odds is not saying it's a 100% fool proof plan, nothing is foolproof, even trading for paps or signing another big $$ closer.

4) if you are better off throwing big money at bad contracts for 30+ year old free agents in hopes of being mediocre, you can't effectively build your farm system because you are losing picks. you are also setting yourself up to have overpriced talent and being force to eat a lot of contracts even if you manage to trade these signees for talent. beltran for 2 years is a reasonble deal that the yanks could expect to deal when they suck this year or next for a decent prospect. however guys signed to longer deals and bigger money are tough to deal (looking at sabathia, mccann, tiexiera, ellsbury, etc) because no one wants to be tied to them for more than a year or 2. it's why the astros are bottoming out, because they know it's the fastest way to stockpile talent. it's also why bottom feeders are smart to sign quality vets to 1-2 year deals and then flip them at the trading deadline for more young talent. they aren't signing guys to 5+ year deals. i know the yanks have more $$, but it's just not the way to build a winner anymore and even the yanks have a threshold of what they are willing to spend.

1. Again, if the Phillies are trying to get rid of Papelbon, his trade value is going to decline. See Keith Hernandez for Neil Allen. Heck- the Mets traded RA Dickey last year for similar reasons after he mouthed off about the front office at the Mets team banquet. If you think the Yankees don't know about Papelbon's comments and the fact that they are trying to dump him...well, you must think that they are living under a rock. You're assuming Papelbon's trade value is what it would normally be if he didn't have any off the field issues- but that's not the case. I'm telling you right now- A-Rod's contract is about to be voided. The MLB commissioner's office is on the Yankees side of that issue.

2. The point of competing is to try to win now. I guarantee you most Yankees fans or fans of any MLB team would rather sign a bunch of free agents and have bad contracts for a few years knowing that most of those contracts will roll off in three-four years while building the farm system rather than just sucking like the Pirates did for years. You also don't build a farm system with only first round picks. There's the international players and then there are the other 50 rounds in the draft. If Tanaka is posted, he will be as good as any first round pick this year should the Yankees indeed sign him.

3. Ah- the old "I listed more things than you therefore I am right" message board tactic. Here are some more set up men that were very good pitchers that were not good closers- Arthur Rhodes, Mike Stanton, LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth- in other words it happens. And then there's Daniel Bard who was a good set-up man but he was actually converted to a starting pitcher. And of course nothing is foolproof- that was my point. But at least with Papelbon you get another reliable arm- whether he closes or not. Because right now, it's Robertson (good pitcher) and then it's Preston Claiborne, David Phelps, and Vidal Nuno.

4. The current draft system has been in place for only three years. The Yankees problem in the past has actually been scouting more than anything. Their system isn't the way it is because of the current system. Their first round picks from 2006-2010 Joba Chamberlain, Andrew Brackman, Gerritt Cole who did not sign, Jeremy Bleich, Slade Heathcott, and Cito Culver. Also, when the Yankees do sign someone- they're usually not looking to trade them. Again, I agree with you that you don't build a winner taking on huge salaries, but I understand why the Yankees do it. They have more resources than most teams and can take on big contracts like that while also building up their farm system.

[Will James]

FanGraphs Steamer Projections - Hitters with 2.0 WAR or greater, 2014

Red Sox - 7
Orioles - 5
Blue Jays - 5
Rays - 5
Yankees - 3

[Todd4State]

This post is full of fail, Ichiro sucks now. The Yanks may be

Ellsbury - Above avg hitter... 4 WAR
Jeter - Old. League Average. 1 WAR
Beltran - Old. Aging but still above avg bat. Defensive liability. 2 WAR
McCann - Good. 4 WAR
Teixeira - Above avg hitter, below avg fielder. 2 WAR
A-Rod - Old. Average. 1.5 WAR
Soriano - Old. Below Avg. 1 WAR
Roberts - Below Avg - 1 WAR
Gardner- Avg hitter. good glove. 2.5 WAR

So they are either old or made of glass save McCann. Combined 19 WAR in this lineup. Assuming health all year. Thats shitty. Good for 17th in the MLB last year, again assuming health from all of the best possible lineup out there.

They're trying to move Ichiro as well. I think Kelly Johnson is going to play a lot of second base for them rather than Roberts.

[Will James]

The Yanks aren't trying to win NOW as much as winning in 2015 and on. Paps makes no sense on paper, especially if they can tank this year and reset the luxury tax.

The Yankee organization is like the value of the Dodgers... The Guggenheims paid 2 Billion or whatever not because it was "Worth" that, but because they had the $$$ and wanted it forever. The Yanks can spend and spend and spend precisely because they have the money. If you look at strict value then the Yanks look bad, but the big spending CAN and WILL work if you are smart about it. You just have to assemble the best group of talented sabermetric friendly players. The Tigers and Red Sox aren't penny pinchers but they know how to get the best of the best, something the Yanks haven't figured out.

Going forward it will be much harder for the poor teams to find hidden value with knowledge in every front office and money becomes the variable

[Todd4State]

The Yanks aren't trying to win NOW as much as winning in 2015 and on. Paps makes no sense on paper, especially if they can tank this year and reset the luxury tax.

The Yankee organization is like the value of the Dodgers... The Guggenheims paid 2 Billion or whatever not because it was "Worth" that, but because they had the $$$ and wanted it forever. The Yanks can spend and spend and spend precisely because they have the money. If you look at strict value then the Yanks look bad, but the big spending CAN and WILL work if you are smart about it. You just have to assemble the best group of talented sabermetric friendly players. The Tigers and Red Sox aren't penny pinchers but they know how to get the best of the best, something the Yanks haven't figured out.

Going forward it will be much harder for the poor teams to find hidden value with knowledge in every front office and money becomes the variable

Did you just gloss over my rundown of the Yankees bullpen? It doesn't even matter if Papelbon or Robertson closes- they need arms. The Toledo Mudhens may have a better bullpen than the Yankees right now. This isn't that hard.

You can't really say it doesn't make sense on paper until a deal is actually done. For all we know, the Phillies may be pissed off enough that they'll just eat the contract to get rid of him. And no, that's not likely but stranger things have happened.

It's also really easy to say that all a team has to do is get the best sabermetric players, but everyone in MLB knows who their best players are and their values- traditional and sabermetric and they're not going to just give them away. The Yankees and everyone else have to take what is on the market.

[Will James]

It doesn't even matter if Papelbon or Robertson closes- they need arms.

No, they need bats with probably the earliest competitive year being in 2016. Papelbon doesn't help their goal of competing in 2016.

[bully99]

What? When Texiera is healthy, he's one of the best defensive first baseman in the game. The notion that McCann is the only one healthy is laughable. He's had all kinds of injuries, plus weight problems and eye problems. He fits right in with the Yankees. I don't care what his war is.

[Dawg61]

They are old but they have 3 first ballot HOFers and another 4 borderline ones in a lineup of 9. How many lineups in the history of baseball can boast that?

[dawgs]

1) The mets got Travis D'Arnoud in return for Dickey. That's a better prospect than anything the Yankees could put together for paps.

2) anyone with reasonable sense recognizes when it's time to dial back expectations and restock the system instead of making bad deals.

3) I only listed 16 closers from 2013 that were former set up men turned quality closers. If you want me to dive into previous seasons, I can, but the odds clearly show it's more likely a successful set up man translates into a successful closer than busts as a closer.

4) sure there's a lot of rounds and international signings, but with the limit on postings with international players, the field has been leveled. Teams like the A's, pirates, and brewers can now pony up to max the posting limit on the best international players. Also, think of the 1st round players as your 5* recruits. They have a better chance of panning out than the 2* and 3* guys taken later in the draft. Just because the yanks have made bad 1st round picks of late doesn't mean they should throw big money and their only decent prospects after bad deals. They need to overhaul their scouting dept.

Sometimes being smart is looking at the big picture and not being hard headed about competing this year when it's just not in the cards.

[Will James]

They are old but they have 3 first ballot HOFers and another 4 borderline ones in a lineup of 9. How many lineups in the history of baseball can boast that?

They aren't in their prime! If I trotted out the combined 1995 All Star team right now they'd go 15-147

[Political Hack]

1) The mets got Travis D'Arnoud in return for Dickey. That's a better prospect than anything the Yankees could put together for paps.

2) anyone with reasonable sense recognizes when it's time to dial back expectations and restock the system instead of making bad deals.

3) I only listed 16 closers from 2013 that were former set up men turned quality closers. If you want me to dive into previous seasons, I can, but the odds clearly show it's more likely a successful set up man translates into a successful closer than busts as a closer.

4) sure there's a lot of rounds and international signings, but with the limit on postings with international players, the field has been leveled. Teams like the A's, pirates, and brewers can now pony up to max the posting limit on the best international players. Also, think of the 1st round players as your 5* recruits. They have a better chance of panning out than the 2* and 3* guys taken later in the draft. Just because the yanks have made bad 1st round picks of late doesn't mean they should throw big money and their only decent prospects after bad deals. They need to overhaul their scouting dept.

Sometimes being smart is looking at the big picture and not being hard headed about competing this year when it's just not in the cards.

you're assuming the Yanks will just throw in the towel his year and recognize it's a rebuilding year. That's not really their forte. if they get good pitching, they can manufacture base runners and runs with that line up. Then, just to make MSU fans happy, they'll bunt their asses off. it'll be awesome.

all in all, we're talking about two very different things though... 1) what are the Yanks possibly going to do and 2) what should the Yanks do? I think we can both agree those have two very different answers.

[dawgs]

you're assuming the Yanks will just throw in the towel his year and recognize it's a rebuilding year. That's not really their forte. if they get good pitching, they can manufacture base runners and runs with that line up. Then, just to make MSU fans happy, they'll bunt their asses off. it'll be awesome.

all in all, we're talking about two very different things though... 1) what are the Yanks possibly going to do and 2) what should the Yanks do? I think we can both agree those have two very different answers.

i've only intended my points to support what the yankees SHOULD do, not what the yankees will do. if they make the move, it's a stupid shortsighted move that only serves to set them back that much longer before they are a legit WS contender again.

[smootness]

They are old but they have 3 first ballot HOFers and another 4 borderline ones in a lineup of 9. How many lineups in the history of baseball can boast that?

I got Jeter and ARod as the 1st ballot guys (though obviously ARod won't actually go in); who is the other? And I'm not finding the borderline guys, either.

McCann may end up having a case; right now he's not a HOF guy. Teixiera? I don't see it. He's already on a pretty big decline and would have to keep hitting HRs for a while. Beltran? No; very good but not a HOFer. Soriano? Don't think so, he isn't the kind of guy who usually makes the HOF.

[dawgs]

I got Jeter and ARod as the 1st ballot guys (though obviously ARod won't actually go in); who is the other? And I'm not finding the borderline guys, either.

McCann may end up having a case; right now he's not a HOF guy. Teixiera? I don't see it. He's already on a pretty big decline and would have to keep hitting HRs for a while. Beltran? No; very good but not a HOFer. Soriano? Don't think so, he isn't the kind of guy who usually makes the HOF.

jeter, aroid, beltran, and ichiro are all HoFers, or at least HoF caliber, depending on what happens with the steroid guys. beltran is vastly underrated.*

*that's a comment on his career, not how he performs at age 37. he's still a good hitter now, but he has no speed and his defense is atrocious.

teixeira, mccann, and soriano have had good careers, but are in decline (or have been for several years now) and they were never transcendent players for even a short period, nor do they have the overall numbers to get in. similar story with sabathia. though i could see sabathia maybe getting in, and he definitely has a better shot than teixeira, mccann, and soriano.

that said, all these very good to great players are in decline and have been for years. it's not 2006 anymore.

[Dawg61]

Ichiro is a 1st ballot HOFer along with no doubt Jeter and ARod. McCann is one of the better hitting catchers so he'll get consideration, Soriano has had a long productive career. He has suprising power numbers and had good speed early in his career. He was a 40/40 threat for awhile. Beltran is already a HOF in my book. He's top 3 switch hitter all-time and his postseason success is ridiculous. The 4th is Tex and he's the most borderline of them all but he'll still get some votes.

[Dawg61]

The 2013 Yankees won 85 games. Did they improve their lineup? I think they did. If they get just 5 more wins they are right in the hunt for the playoffs.

[Will James]

Baseball players generally peak around 28. None of the Yanks starters will be under 30 come opening day.

30- Ellsbury
30- McCann
30- Gardner
31- Johnson
33- Teixeira
36- Roberts
36- Beltran
37- Soriano
38- Rodriguez
39- Jeter
40- Ichiro

The Yankees should be in panic mode. Money can only go so far. You need a solid base where money can add the cherries on top.

[Will James]

The 2013 Yankees won 85 games. Did they improve their lineup? I think they did. If they get just 5 more wins they are right in the hunt for the playoffs.

Everyone will match their WAR from last year. Hmmmm. Cashman didn't call up Ponce de Leon did he?

[Political Hack]

This post is full of fail, Ichiro sucks now. The Yanks may be

Ellsbury - Above avg hitter... 4 WAR
Jeter - Old. League Average. 1 WAR
Beltran - Old. Aging but still above avg bat. Defensive liability. 2 WAR
McCann - Good. 4 WAR
Teixeira - Above avg hitter, below avg fielder. 2 WAR
A-Rod - Old. Average. 1.5 WAR
Soriano - Old. Below Avg. 1 WAR
Roberts - Below Avg - 1 WAR
Gardner- Avg hitter. good glove. 2.5 WAR

So they are either old or made of glass save McCann. Combined 19 WAR in this lineup. Assuming health all year. Thats shitty. Good for 17th in the MLB last year, again assuming health from all of the best possible lineup out there.

so you use one offensive stat to show that they were middle of the pack (with all of the injuries they had last year) to prove that they're incapable of competing this season with improved pitching.

you're a regular genius.

[Political Hack]

Baseball players generally peak around 28. None of the Yanks starters will be under 30 come opening day.

30- Ellsbury
30- McCann
30- Gardner
31- Johnson
33- Teixeira
36- Roberts
36- Beltran
37- Soriano
38- Rodriguez
39- Jeter
40- Ichiro

The Yankees should be in panic mode. Money can only go so far. You need a solid base where money can add the cherries on top.

Yankees usually peak around 36 though.

This is easy when you get to make up your own stats.

[dawgs]

The 2013 Yankees won 85 games. Did they improve their lineup? I think they did. If they get just 5 more wins they are right in the hunt for the playoffs.

the yankees were also incredibly lucky last year in 1 run games. their run differential was that of a team that should have won 79 games. sure maybe a good closer helps there, but look at the 2012 v. 2013 O's. same closer and generally same bullpen, the closer (jim johnson) had just as good of a season both years, and their record dropped from 29-9 in 1 run games to 20-31 ins 1 run game because they didn't have as much luck. all this despite a run differential that increased from +7 in 2012 to +36 in 2013. the yankees has a -21 run differential in 2013, got lucky to win 85 games. that's not a good recipe for improving by 5 Ws in 2014 imo.

[Will James]

Yankees usually peak around 36 though. This is easy when you get to make up your own stats.Ignorance and stupidity are not refutations.

[dawgs]

so you use one offensive stat to show that they were middle of the pack (with all of the injuries they had last year) to prove that they're incapable of competing this season with improved pitching.

you're a regular genius.

he listed essentially a best case scenario. no injuries and no declines. that's pretty much impossible with an everyday lineup projected to average around 35 years old.

now anyone that has paid attention to baseball in the post-steroid era understands that you can gamble on 1 or 2 over 30 players having good seasons, but relying on a full lineup of 30+ year old guys, many of them with a lot of injury issues the last couple of seasons (literally every one of those players has missed over 50 games in a season at least once since 2009 due to injury).

also, the yanks pitching is not improved. and the starting pitching is in need of help and would have a much bigger impact than the possibility of marginally improving the closer role.

[Political Hack]

he listed essentially a best case scenario. no injuries and no declines. that's pretty much impossible with an everyday lineup projected to average around 35 years old.

now anyone that has paid attention to baseball in the post-steroid era understands that you can gamble on 1 or 2 over 30 players having good seasons, but relying on a full lineup of 30+ year old guys, many of them with a lot of injury issues the last couple of seasons (literally every one of those players has missed over 50 games in a season at least once since 2009 due to injury).

also, the yanks pitching is not improved. and the starting pitching is in need of help and would have a much bigger impact than the possibility of marginally improving the closer role.

baseball players don't use steroids anymore?

[Will James]

baseball players don't use steroids anymore?

They still use numbers.

[Political Hack]

They still use numbers.

I didn't realize your past numbers dictate what will happen. State... 6-6 again next years guys. Sorry.

steriods, pitching improvements, and all that other stuff is irrelevant.

[Dawg61]

WAR and BABIP are the ONLY thing that matters Hack

[Will James]

WAR and BABIP are the ONLY thing that matters Hack

They are better than hope and fairytales. You are basing your arguments on nothing.

[dawgs]

baseball players don't use steroids anymore?

not like they did up until 7 or 8 years ago. how many guys don't get injured and put up .300-40-110 year after year well into their mid to late 30s in the last half decade? it's really rather amazing to watch how quickly the prime performance window in baseball shrank drastically with increased PED testing and penalties and how much the average player age dropped has dropped correspondingly. MLB is much more open to getting guys to the bigs ASAP because they know they want to maximize their productive years, know that (1) they are likely better options than a 30+ year old vet and (2) that by the time these guys hit 30 or so, their best years will be behind them, not ahead of them.

numbers don't lie -
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/1/25/3896270/why-is-the-mlb-getting-younger

[Political Hack]

They are better than hope and fairytales. You are basing your arguments on nothing.

what was State's WAR and BABIP rank nationally in 2012?

[Will James]

what was State's WAR and BABIP rank nationally in 2012?

Willful ignorance often finds its way into these discussions.

[Political Hack]

Will's ignorance often finds its way into these discussions.

fixed it for you.

[Will James]

fixed it for you.

Find a flaw in my argument dumbass

[dawgs]

i'll bet anyone in this thread all my vCash that the yankees don't finish higher than 4th in the AL east next season.

[Political Hack]

Find a flaw in my argument dumbass

1) you called a genius a dumbass because you're too stupid to realize you're argument sucks.

2) Your stupid baseball stats did nothing to predict Miss St's run last season but yet we're supposed to take at face value that it will predict the Yankees? The creator of BABIP is embarrassed for you. Stats are used to explain results, not predict them. Dumbass.

[Political Hack]

i'll bet anyone in this thread all my vCash that the yankees don't finish higher than 4th in the AL east next season.

I bet all mine that last year's league leader in WAR doesn't win the World Series.

[dawgs]

I bet all mine that last year's league leader in WAR doesn't win the World Series.

well of course, because players change teams, young guys improve, OLD GUYS breakdown and regress.

it's reasonable for someone to expect machado and harper and segura and maybe even trout (though i think he's about maxed out tbh) and other <25 young players with some solid MLB success to improve from 2013 to 2014. why? because they are young. their WAR should rise. likewise, it's reasonable to expect guys a decade older than them to regress and/or breakdown. why? because they are old. their WAR shouldn't rise, and likely will fall.

i don't know why you seem to think we are saying because the numbers said something last year, we are saying it will be the same this year. no. we are saying that looking at the numbers from last year and factoring in expected regression of aging players and the expected injuries will give you the 2014 yankees.

there isn't a site out there calculating sabermetric measures for college baseball. at least not on a grand scale. however, i'd imagine our team WAR or whatever would have been in the top 20 or so in the country, which is the top 7% of college baseball teams and is really splitting hairs given there are about 300 D1 college baseball programs out there. it'd be like the top 5 MLB teams according to WAR all making the playoffs and then trying to claim WAR is faulty when the team with the 4th best WAR won the world series. no, the point is that teams with team WAR in the bottom half of the bigs typically do not compete for rings. it's not to say that in a given series a team with a minimal WAR advantage will win because of WAR. it's to separate out the teams into tiers. you have your contenders, your above avg teams, your avg teams, your below avg teams, and your bad teams. think of it that way.

you take sabermetrics like WAR and you factor it in with expected improvements and regressions, outlier seasons, acquisitions, etc. and make a prediction based on the culmination of all this data and observations.

[dawgs]

i'd be interested to see what you think the yankees traditional numbers would look like per player. avg/obp/slg, HR, RBI, R, SB. and how many games your think each of the projected starters to play. and even a sabermetric hater must see how awful they will be in the field.

[Political Hack]

i'd be interested to see what you think the yankees traditional numbers would look like per player. avg/obp/slg, HR, RBI, R, SB. and how many games your think each of the projected starters to play. and even a sabermetric hater must see how awful they will be in the field.

I hope they are awful. I want the O's to win the Al East. I don't care one way or the other about the Yanks really, except how they impact the O's. You and I were discussing two very different things. I don't think they'll be great, but I don't think last year or an assumption of their line up next year is a good enough indicator to predict utter failure. And I sure as hell don't ever expect the Yankees to just mail it in

[Dawg61]

Sox are too good at home. It's their division to lose again next year.

[dawgs]

I hope they are awful. I want the O's to win the Al East. I don't care one way or the other about the Yanks really, except how they impact the O's. You and I were discussing two very different things. I don't think they'll be great, but I don't think last year or an assumption of their line up next year is a good enough indicator to predict utter failure. And I sure as hell don't ever expect the Yankees to just mail it in

i think a COMBINATION of last year's production of the players on their roster in 2014 + my educated guess at their production in 2014 based on age and injury history indicates an utter failure. and indicates an utter-er failure in 2015 and beyond without a fundamental change in approach to running the franchise. i don't care if the yankees think they are mailing it in or not, because regardless of what they think, they have already mailed it in for 2014 and the foreseeable future by their roster decisions.

is there any team you would declare a non-contender in 2014 right now? if so, then what are you basing it on? the past performances of the players and the educated guess of how they'll perform next year?

[smootness]

Ichiro is a 1st ballot HOFer along with no doubt Jeter and ARod. McCann is one of the better hitting catchers so he'll get consideration, Soriano has had a long productive career. He has suprising power numbers and had good speed early in his career. He was a 40/40 threat for awhile. Beltran is already a HOF in my book. He's top 3 switch hitter all-time and his postseason success is ridiculous. The 4th is Tex and he's the most borderline of them all but he'll still get some votes.

Forgot about Ichiro, but he's not even going to start, which is sort of the epitome of Will's argument - who cares if a guy is going to the HOF; if he's 40 and not even starting anymore, he's not giving you anything close to HOF production.

And I would be beyond shocked if Beltran makes the HOF. Top 3 switch-hitter of all time? Huh? Ahead of which 2 of these: Mickey Mantle, Chipper Jones, Eddie Murray, Pete Rose?

You could even make a strong case guys like Teixiera and Roberto Alomar are ahead of him; I would definitely put Berkman over him.

[Dawg61]

alright top 5.

[bully99]

Will James I respect some of your baseball knowledge, but damn dude, just because people don't get into this moneyball and wars and whips doesn't mean we dont love baseball as much as you do. Your keep demonizing people who aren't into all of this sybermetrics crap. Yeah I know it's taking over baseball, but it's turning off a lot of baseball fans like me.

[Will James]

Will James I respect some of your baseball knowledge, but damn dude, just because people don't get into this moneyball and wars and whips doesn't mean we dont love baseball as much as you do. Your keep demonizing people who aren't into all of this sybermetrics crap. Yeah I know it's taking over baseball, but it's turning off a lot of baseball fans like me.

Demonizing? Dawgs and I just want a rational rebuttle to further the discussion. Not a "well Yankees peak at 36"

[Political Hack]

Demonizing? Dawgs and I just want a rational rebuttle to further the discussion. Not a "well Yankees peak at 36"

as opposed to your random age selection of when people peak. It was a toungue in cheek statement rookie. meant to make fun of your made up "fact-based" argument.

hang tight though. ESPN will call you any minute now to offer you Jeff Brantley's old job.

[Will James]

as opposed to your random age selection of when people peak. It was a toungue in cheek statement rookie. meant to make fun of your made up "fact-based" argument.

hang tight though. ESPN will call you any minute now to offer you Jeff Brantley's old job.

Random??

[Political Hack]

Random??

so you have stats to show that your age selection of when people peak is correct?

If so, I'm listening.

[dawgs]

as opposed to your random age selection of when people peak. It was a toungue in cheek statement rookie. meant to make fun of your made up "fact-based" argument.

hang tight though. ESPN will call you any minute now to offer you Jeff Brantley's old job.

wait wait wait....you are going to argue that most players don't peak somewhere in the 25-30 range?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

86 years of data shows the only improvement for both pitchers and hitters on the wrong side of 30 is BB rates.

[Political Hack]

wait wait wait....you are going to argue that most players don't peak somewhere in the 25-30 range?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

86 years of data shows the only improvement for both pitchers and hitters on the wrong side of 30 is BB rates.

I'm not arguing that. I'm saying Willy the kid pulled some shit out of his ass to assert the Yankees lineup can't produce wins. I'm saying that can't be predicted as easily as looking at age, WAR, etc... and by completely ignoring potential pitching improvements. They have a hall of fame lineup. Some of those guys will produce at 30+.

plus, them gettin better or worse is irrelevant. I thought he was a money ball proponent??? Doesn't that mean that an older, less productive David Justice can still be good for a team???

[Will James]

I'm not arguing that. I'm saying Willy the kid pulled some shit out of his ass to assert the Yankees lineup can't produce wins. I'm saying that can't be predicted as easily as looking at age, WAR, etc... and by completely ignoring potential pitching improvements. They have a hall of fame lineup. Some of those guys will produce at 30+.

plus, them gettin better or worse is irrelevant. I thought he was a money ball proponent??? Doesn't that mean that an older, less productive David Justice can still be good for a team???

Quit being retarded. I showed their projections based on last years numbers. Can older players produce? Yes. Do older players suddenly become much better than they were in previous years? Hell no. You are providing NOTHING that suggests that they will produce because the 2004 all stars are on the team.

[dawgs]

more links showing a decline once a player hits his 30s.

in this one, notice the change in pre-1980 player decline and post-1980 player decline? while some of that is due to better workout regimes and better healthcare, it's also skewed by the steroid era when more than half of the top 10 hitters in the game were in their mid-30s or older.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15968

fyi articles "debunking" the age 27 myth don't disprove the fact that players tend to peak in the 25-30 window, it's just proving that a player's best season isn't necessarily at the age of 27, it might be 26 or 28 or 29, and that crappy players don't suddenly turn into studs because they are 27 either because they are crappy players.

[dawgs]

I'm not arguing that. I'm saying Willy the kid pulled some shit out of his ass to assert the Yankees lineup can't produce wins. I'm saying that can't be predicted as easily as looking at age, WAR, etc... and by completely ignoring potential pitching improvements. They have a hall of fame lineup. Some of those guys will produce at 30+.

plus, them gettin better or worse is irrelevant. I thought he was a money ball proponent??? Doesn't that mean that an older, less productive David Justice can still be good for a team???

i hope you are trolling at this point, but here's a sentence from the grantland article i posted way back on page 1 regarding the yankees lineup: Individually, old players can have surprisingly good years; collectively, old players decline. i agree with this sentence 100%.

signing tiexiera to a <3 year deal to be a vet and provide some power on a team of young players and in need of a 1B is a good move. relying on a team full of tiexiera's to take you to the playoffs and contend for a ring is while all signed for multiple years and big $$ is a disastrous move. look at the cardinals. they bring in older guys like berkman and beltran to complement their homegrown talent, get a good season or 2 from the older vets, and then let them go. that's how you correctly use 30something former all-stars, not by signing an everyday lineup full of them to long term deals.

[Political Hack]

Quit being retarded. I showed their projections based on last years numbers. Can older players produce? Yes. Do older players suddenly become much better than they were in previous years? Hell no. You are providing NOTHING that suggests that they will produce because the 2004 all stars are on the team.

keep up kid. I'm not saying they'll be great. follow closely now... I'm saying you can't predict that they're incapable of contending based on last year's WAR and their age. How they will perform next season is not limited to your prediction. we don't even know what their lineup is going to look like yet, or what pitching they're going to bring in. sorry for the heartbreaking news.

[Political Hack]

i hope you are trolling at this point, but here's a sentence from the grantland article i posted way back on page 1 regarding the yankees lineup: Individually, old players can have surprisingly good years; collectively, old players decline. i agree with this sentence 100%.

signing tiexiera to a <3 year deal to be a vet and provide some power on a team of young players and in need of a 1B is a good move. relying on a team full of tiexiera's to take you to the playoffs and contend for a ring is while all signed for multiple years and big $$ is a disastrous move. look at the cardinals. they bring in older guys like berkman and beltran to complement their homegrown talent, get a good season or 2 from the older vets, and then let them go. that's how you correctly use 30something former all-stars, not by signing an everyday lineup full of them to long term deals.

that's dumb. why would anyone think a team of 40 year olds will be better than a team of 25 year olds?

however, I do think they can get production in spots from some key players despite their age. Add a McCann here, a Paps there, a Japanese pitcher over there, etc... and they could be much better than what their last season's WAR says. it's not difficult to follow.

[Dawg61]

Something to also consider with the Yanks is the ridiculous right field porch. I'd expect Beltran, McCann, Ellsbury and even Kelly Johnson to see an increase in power numbers this year. Beltran is going to beast at home.

[dawgs]

keep up kid. I'm not saying they'll be great. follow closely now... I'm saying you can't predict that they're incapable of contending based on last year's WAR and their age. How they will perform next season is not limited to your prediction. we don't even know what their lineup is going to look like yet, or what pitching they're going to bring in. sorry for the heartbreaking news.

you know predictions are educated guesses right? i'd say there is a <10% chance the yanks are in the playoff hunt in september. there is a very, very slim possibility that the 2004 all-star team performs like they did in 2004 and stays relatively healthy all year. but the information does not support any rational, informed human being looking at the yanks and predicting a contender in 2014. you can make a PREDICTION based on age and trending production and injury histories and the aging curves of a large sampling of 1000s of big league players through the years. a PREDICTION does not 100% of the time become reality because it's a PREDICTION. i predict that the yankees won't compete in 2014 and will get a lot worse before they get better because they are saddled with bad contracts, an old roster, a terrible farm system, and in the post-steroid, modern CBA era, you can't buy your way to a ring without a strong core of home grown talent still on team friendly deals. that's my PREDICTION. a prediction that's supported by statistical data and observations (the "eye test"). have you never predicted what our football record or score would be? is that not based off you analysis of numbers, rosters, and observations?

i mean according to your logic, since we don't have a crystal ball, we must consider the astros contenders in 2014 too. i mean we can't look at past performance, overall perceived talent level, and prior production to make a well informed, educated guess that the astros likely will finish out of contention. no one can look ahead and predict anything based on everything they have learned through analysis and observations.

[Political Hack]

should the Yankees not go after and older closer because you think they're going to have a bad year?

[Will James]

should the Yankees not go after and older closer because you think they're going to have a bad year?

They shouldn't because they will be giving away pieces that can help them when they WILL BE COMPETITIVE down the road, for someone who will be there when they WONT BE COMPETITIVE now.

[Dawg61]

Again the Yankees won 85 games last year with lineups like this.


RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: Alex Rodriguez
2B: Robinson Cano
LF: Alfonso Soriano
CF: Curtis Granderson
3B: Eduardo Nunez
1B: Mark Reynolds
SS: Brendan Ryan
C: Chris Stewart

Now they have

CF: Ellsbury
SS: Jeter
RF: Beltran
DH: Soriano
1B: Texiera
3B: ARod
C: McCann
2B: Johnson
LF: Gardner

If you can't see the improvement in this lineup I can't help you. But it all depends on if they can stay healthy and if ARod will play. That is a NASTY lineup in 2004 AND in 2014.

[dawgs]

that's 2 really big IFs. every player in the everyday 2014 lineup has missed at least 50 games in a single season due to injury since 2008. many of them have several seasons of injury issues in that time frame. guys in their 30s don't tend to get less injury prone as they age. relying on 1 or 2 reasonably priced 30somethings with significant injuries in their past to put together a solid full season is a gamble worth taking. relying on 9 mostly overpaid 30somethings with significant injuries in their past to all stay relatively healthy and put together solid full seasons is foolish. and aroid is almost 100% assured of missing at least 50 games due to suspension and probably better than a 50/50 bet to miss the whole season.

[dawgs]

They shouldn't because they will be giving away pieces that can help them when they WILL BE COMPETITIVE down the road, for someone who will be there when they WONT BE COMPETITIVE now.

and they'd be committing not just to picking up whatever part of pap's contract they'd take on, but all the future ramifications from the luxury tax, which could be upwards of $50M. all so that they can maybe win 81 games in 2014 to go .500. they need to realize that saving themselves that money and allowing some of the bad contracts to end is the best way to get back to winning rings. there's also a cheap and easy solution: put robertson in the closer role and sign some cheap non-closer RPs to fill out your bullpen. odds are that robertson would be a fine closer.

fwiw, i hate the yankees, so if they want to keep setting themselves back further and further from being a WS contender, fine by me. but in as an objective analyst, it's would be a bad, short sighted, dumb move.