Quaoarsking
10-19-2025, 03:55 PM
Note: I am NOT calling for Lebby to be fired ... yet. I am totally willing to give him until the end of this season to see if he can turn things around. But if we do finish 4-8 (0-8), I think we have to pull the trigger. I researched and only found 3 examples in the last 20 years of an FBS school bringing back a coach after 2 straight winless years in the conference, whether it was his first two years or not:
Ted Roof went 0-8 at Duke in both 2005 and 2006, then was brought back to go 0-8 again in 2007 and get fired.
Randy Edsall went 0-8 at UConn in 2018 and 2019, then didn't play at all in 2020 and was fired after just 2 games in 2021.
Trent Miles went 0-7 and 0-8 in 2013 and 2014 at Georgia State, before improving and making a bowl in 2015 but then regressing and getting fired midseason in 2016. Those were Georgia State's first 2 years in the FBS, so it's a little more understandable why they gave him more list.
So I stand by my previous statements that no one would give Lebby a 3rd year if he starts out 0-16, and there's no reason to expect him not to be fired pretty soon after even if we did.
One major reason people don't want to fire him is because they're afraid we won't be able to hire anyone this offseason because a bunch of big-name schools will be looking for a coach. That's just not true though. Here is a list of 15 coaches who have head coaching experience (so no having to learn on the job that you don't throw in that situation last night), multiple years of success, and who aren't likely to be snatched up by Florida, Penn State, UCLA, etc. I didn't put names like James Franklin on the list. Obviously I'd love to hire him, but it's not realistic to expect us to get him. This isn't meant to be a comprehensive list. There are probably other solid hires out there that I didn't think of.
It's possible that some names on this list would turn us down to go to Arkansas or Virginia Tech or stay where they are, but I'm confident that most people here would seriously consider taking our job. We shouldn't sell ourselves short - we are an SEC school, and one of only 34 teams in the "Power Two." More importantly, I'm confident that every single name on the list would be 5-2 with our current roster, and most of them would be 6-1. This isn't a list of "greatest coaches hypothetically available," it's a list of "coaches we could probably get that would probably be an upgrade."
1. Bob Chesney (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Chesney) - Career record of 126-51, won big at Salve Regina, Assumption, and Holy Cross, before coming to James Madison, where he is 15-5 (8-4). Seems like another Cignetti.
2. Jason Candle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Candle) - Currently in his 10th year at Toledo, where he is 76-43 (48-25) with 2 conference championships and .500 or better in every season and 1 ass-kicking of an SEC school.
3. Matt Entz (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Entz) - 2 FCS national titles at North Dakota State with a record of 60-11 (32-7). Now the head coach at Fresno State and is 5-2 in year 1.
4. Jon Sumrall (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Sumrall) - Went 23-4 (4-2) at Troy and is now 15-6 (10-1) at Tulane. Rumored to have turned us down in late 2023, but worth a second inquiry.
5. Brent Vigen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_Vigen) - Currently in his 5th year at Montana State, with all top 10 finishes and a 52-12 (32-3) record.
6. Brian Newberry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Newberry_(American_football)) - In his 3rd year at Navy, currently 21-10 (14-6) there. Finished 10-3 last year and is undefeated in 2025. Came up as a DC so probably not committed to being a triple option team.
7. Troy Calhoun (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_Calhoun) - They've had a dropoff the last couple years, but he's been very solid over his 19 years at Air Force, with a record of 136-94 (80-62). The service academies are at a bigger recruiting disadvantage than ever in the NIL/portal era.
8. Alex Golesh (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Golesh) - In the 3 years before he arrived at South Florida, they went 4-29. Since then, they are 19-13 (10-8) with wins over Syracuse and Flordia. THAT's how you do a turnaround. He may getting a bigger job.
9. KC Keeler (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._C._Keeler) - He's old for a new hire at 66, but he's 275-115 in his career, winning big at Rowan, Delaware, and Sam Houston, winning 5 D3 national titles and 2 FCS national titles. Now in his first year at Temple. Probably too old for a long-term rebuild, but it would be his chance at the biggest stage.
10. Charles Huff (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Huff_(American_football_coach)) - 4 bowl games in 4 years at Marshall, and has instantly turned around Southern Miss in year 1 this year.
11. Jimmy Rogers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Rogers_(American_football_coach)) - 2 seasons at South Dakota State that included an FCS national title and a semifinal, and has been surprisingly good and competitive at Washington State this year.
12. Mike Gundy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Gundy) - I know, I know. He's not like the rest of the names on the list. And the last 2 years were pretty bad. But you can't argue with his resume, 170-90 (102-72) at what used to be the Mississippi State of the Big 12. Only 58, so could coach for another decade. Finished ranked twice in 2020s, so it's not a long-term decline, just completely falling apart over the last 2 years.
13. Tim Polasek (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Polasek) - Short tenure as a head coach, only in his second year. Won the FCS National Title at North Dakota State last year and is now 7-0 in year 2. Each of the last 3 NDSU coaches has moved on to the FBS ranks and continued to be good.
14. Tyson Helton (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Helton) - I never hear his name discussed, but he's 53-35 (37-14) at Western Kentucky and has led them to a bowl every year he's been there.
15. Ryan Silverfield (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Silverfield) - Another name people don't talk about, but 48-22 (25-18) at Memphis with a bowl every year. A bit of a red flag that his two predecessors at Memphis were both good there are failed at Power 4 jobs though.
Again, I'm NOT committed to firing Lebby yet. He deserves our support for the rest of the year. But if we do go 0-8 again, there are absolutely plausible hires out there who would have finished better than 0-8 with this exact roster.
Ted Roof went 0-8 at Duke in both 2005 and 2006, then was brought back to go 0-8 again in 2007 and get fired.
Randy Edsall went 0-8 at UConn in 2018 and 2019, then didn't play at all in 2020 and was fired after just 2 games in 2021.
Trent Miles went 0-7 and 0-8 in 2013 and 2014 at Georgia State, before improving and making a bowl in 2015 but then regressing and getting fired midseason in 2016. Those were Georgia State's first 2 years in the FBS, so it's a little more understandable why they gave him more list.
So I stand by my previous statements that no one would give Lebby a 3rd year if he starts out 0-16, and there's no reason to expect him not to be fired pretty soon after even if we did.
One major reason people don't want to fire him is because they're afraid we won't be able to hire anyone this offseason because a bunch of big-name schools will be looking for a coach. That's just not true though. Here is a list of 15 coaches who have head coaching experience (so no having to learn on the job that you don't throw in that situation last night), multiple years of success, and who aren't likely to be snatched up by Florida, Penn State, UCLA, etc. I didn't put names like James Franklin on the list. Obviously I'd love to hire him, but it's not realistic to expect us to get him. This isn't meant to be a comprehensive list. There are probably other solid hires out there that I didn't think of.
It's possible that some names on this list would turn us down to go to Arkansas or Virginia Tech or stay where they are, but I'm confident that most people here would seriously consider taking our job. We shouldn't sell ourselves short - we are an SEC school, and one of only 34 teams in the "Power Two." More importantly, I'm confident that every single name on the list would be 5-2 with our current roster, and most of them would be 6-1. This isn't a list of "greatest coaches hypothetically available," it's a list of "coaches we could probably get that would probably be an upgrade."
1. Bob Chesney (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Chesney) - Career record of 126-51, won big at Salve Regina, Assumption, and Holy Cross, before coming to James Madison, where he is 15-5 (8-4). Seems like another Cignetti.
2. Jason Candle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Candle) - Currently in his 10th year at Toledo, where he is 76-43 (48-25) with 2 conference championships and .500 or better in every season and 1 ass-kicking of an SEC school.
3. Matt Entz (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Entz) - 2 FCS national titles at North Dakota State with a record of 60-11 (32-7). Now the head coach at Fresno State and is 5-2 in year 1.
4. Jon Sumrall (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Sumrall) - Went 23-4 (4-2) at Troy and is now 15-6 (10-1) at Tulane. Rumored to have turned us down in late 2023, but worth a second inquiry.
5. Brent Vigen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_Vigen) - Currently in his 5th year at Montana State, with all top 10 finishes and a 52-12 (32-3) record.
6. Brian Newberry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Newberry_(American_football)) - In his 3rd year at Navy, currently 21-10 (14-6) there. Finished 10-3 last year and is undefeated in 2025. Came up as a DC so probably not committed to being a triple option team.
7. Troy Calhoun (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_Calhoun) - They've had a dropoff the last couple years, but he's been very solid over his 19 years at Air Force, with a record of 136-94 (80-62). The service academies are at a bigger recruiting disadvantage than ever in the NIL/portal era.
8. Alex Golesh (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Golesh) - In the 3 years before he arrived at South Florida, they went 4-29. Since then, they are 19-13 (10-8) with wins over Syracuse and Flordia. THAT's how you do a turnaround. He may getting a bigger job.
9. KC Keeler (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._C._Keeler) - He's old for a new hire at 66, but he's 275-115 in his career, winning big at Rowan, Delaware, and Sam Houston, winning 5 D3 national titles and 2 FCS national titles. Now in his first year at Temple. Probably too old for a long-term rebuild, but it would be his chance at the biggest stage.
10. Charles Huff (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Huff_(American_football_coach)) - 4 bowl games in 4 years at Marshall, and has instantly turned around Southern Miss in year 1 this year.
11. Jimmy Rogers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Rogers_(American_football_coach)) - 2 seasons at South Dakota State that included an FCS national title and a semifinal, and has been surprisingly good and competitive at Washington State this year.
12. Mike Gundy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Gundy) - I know, I know. He's not like the rest of the names on the list. And the last 2 years were pretty bad. But you can't argue with his resume, 170-90 (102-72) at what used to be the Mississippi State of the Big 12. Only 58, so could coach for another decade. Finished ranked twice in 2020s, so it's not a long-term decline, just completely falling apart over the last 2 years.
13. Tim Polasek (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Polasek) - Short tenure as a head coach, only in his second year. Won the FCS National Title at North Dakota State last year and is now 7-0 in year 2. Each of the last 3 NDSU coaches has moved on to the FBS ranks and continued to be good.
14. Tyson Helton (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Helton) - I never hear his name discussed, but he's 53-35 (37-14) at Western Kentucky and has led them to a bowl every year he's been there.
15. Ryan Silverfield (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Silverfield) - Another name people don't talk about, but 48-22 (25-18) at Memphis with a bowl every year. A bit of a red flag that his two predecessors at Memphis were both good there are failed at Power 4 jobs though.
Again, I'm NOT committed to firing Lebby yet. He deserves our support for the rest of the year. But if we do go 0-8 again, there are absolutely plausible hires out there who would have finished better than 0-8 with this exact roster.