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View Full Version : FPI win % for rest of season



msstate7
10-19-2025, 08:52 AM
Florida 20.3%
Ark 36.1%
Georgia 17.3%
Missouri 19.7%
OM 26.3%

We're staring a 20-game sec losing streak in the face. Oh, and OM will most likely punch their playoff ticket on our field that will be mostly red and blue.

No BS Dawg
10-19-2025, 10:28 AM
Highly unlikely we win again. It simply is what it is. Now we certainly could jump up and beat someone along the way, but that would be more surprising than expected.

sleepy dawg
10-19-2025, 10:39 AM
If you assume those odds are accurate (of course they aren't perfect), there's good bit better chance we win 1 or more games than 0.

CaptainObvious
10-19-2025, 10:40 AM
If we get to play Florida again this next Saturday as your post suggests, I like our chances! 😎

msstate7
10-19-2025, 10:40 AM
If you assume those odds are accurate (of course they aren't perfect), there's good bit better chance we win 1 or more games than 0.

You take 1 and I'll take 0 for $5 haha

msstate7
10-19-2025, 10:41 AM
If we get to play Florida again this next Saturday as your post suggests, I like our chances! 😎

Florida, Texas, whatever they call theirselves

sleepy dawg
10-19-2025, 10:46 AM
You take 1 and I'll take 0 for $5 haha

I'll take 1 or more vs your 0, sure thing. Virtual shake.

msstate7
10-19-2025, 10:47 AM
I'll take 1 or more vs your 0, sure thing. Virtual shake.

I hope I get to pay you $5. I need to see our program win an sec game

sleepy dawg
10-19-2025, 10:50 AM
I can't find the fpi per game, but masseyratings has it as

- Texas 14%
- Arkansas 36%
- Georgia 13%
- Missouri 20%
- Ole Miss 22%

If you assume those are accurate, there's a 69.27% chance we win 1 or more games.
There's a 30.73% chance we win 0 games.

0 wins: 30.73%
1 win: 41.36%
2 wins: 21.46%
3 wins: 5.45%
4 wins: 0.91%
5 wins: 0.06%

msstate7
10-19-2025, 10:52 AM
I can't find the fpi per game, but masseyratings has it as

- Texas 14%
- Arkansas 36%
- Georgia 13%
- Missouri 20%
- Ole Miss 22%

If you assume those are accurate, there's a 69.27% chance we win 1 or more games.
There's a 30.73% chance we win 0 games.

0 wins: 30.73%
1 win: 41.36%
2 wins: 21.46%
3 wins: 5.45%
4 wins: 0.91%
5 wins: 0.06%

Just go to each game on the schedule on espn app.

If you went back and figured the probability of us winning one game over the last 15, it would be a big number. We lost them all

parabrave
10-19-2025, 12:09 PM
Reminds me of Dean Wermrer 0.0.