Tater
09-13-2025, 11:31 PM
Disclaimer - I think 6-6 with an Egg Bowl win is a GREAT season overachieving expectations.
With that being said, a look ahead to our schedule.
NIU - We have put ourselves in the spot where we have no excuse not to win this game handily. Should be in the 20-30 range. Yes, we shouldn't overlook them, but this is a message board. I'm not on the team.
Tennessee - The offense looks very good when on-script. The defense looks very suspect. If we can get into a track meet and keep pace - I'm curious how they'll handle adversity on the road. We both come off what should be routine G5 wins. FPI - 18.8%. My gut is 25%.
@ Aggy - Reed can pose problems with his speed. I wish we could have afforded to keep Craver. Our defense will have its work cut out for it. They come off of play Auburn so both of us will be fresh off that first SEC taste in our mouths. Their defense is way worse than I anticipate for an Elko defense. We always seem to both them with our games. FPI - 20.3%. My gut is 33.33%
@ UF - We get a bye to lick any wounds from Aggy & Tennessee. Florida comes out of playing what likely will be a battle of bottom 3 QBs in the SEC between them and Texsa and then dealing with Aggy. Their defense is stout. Their offense is bad. DJ L is this year's DJ U. 5 INTs against LSU. A bad loss to a USF team that Miami made look like a joke. We could win this game scoring 14 points. There's also the very real chance florida comes in 1-5. They play Miami, Texas, Aggy. They have a bye week after us. There's a very real possibility we deal with Billy's last stand and he's fired regardless of outcome after our game. I think it's a loss. FPI - 26.7%. My gut - 66.66%
vs. Texsa - The secret is out. Arch stinks. He can't throw 5 yard outs accurately. Stop him from running and you can beat him. This game looks more winnable by the week. If we show up 6-1 or better - we could get College Gameday against what I anticipate to be a 5-2 Texsa team. (I think OU takes the RRS). Their defense is stout and that will be the toughest leap here. FPI - 13.3%. My gut is 25%.
@ Ark - OM showed that anyone can look good against that defense. But their offense has wheels. We'll have to win the track meet. Arkansas also is staring at a precarious schedule. @ Memphis, vs. ND, @ Tenn, vs Aggy, vs Auburn, then us. I see a very real reality where they are 3-5 or even 2-6 coming in to our game. They have a bye after us. It could be similar to Florida where adam Pittman's fate is sealed regardless of outcome. We matchup well with them on our O vs. D. If we contain their QB, big if, we should win. I think FPI will shift a lot here. FPI - 21.6%. My gut is 66.66%
vs. Georgia. - Georgia battled adversity on the road and adapted to the need. They also were susceptible to the 50-50 long ball. I don't really see much of a shot here unless we hit on almost every 50-50 bomb. FPI - 16.2%. My gut - 5%.
@ Mizz - This game looks tougher every week. Their backup QB should have been the starter all along. He's legit. I don't like where this falls on our schedule. I don't like anything about it honestly. FPI - 19.8%. My gut is 10%.
vs. OM - The rebs might have found a QB who doesn't stare everything down. This is not good. Simmons sucked. The Ferris State kid looks good. Defense is same ol porous shit. It's Egg Bowl. I see them coming in 7-4 or 6-5 and dejected they aren't the playoff contenders they try to tell themselves they are. We both come in off a bye. I think Lebby knows he needs this win for perception and momentum. This will be a high scoring affair, but I suspect State pulls it out. FPI - 17.4%. My gut is 50.5%. Give .5% to the home team in this rivalry.
Overall - you've got 5 teams a lot of people currently would write as no shot. Two weeks ago it was 7 teams. Think what it will be in two more weeks. The path to 8-4 is there. 9-3 if things break really right for us. Momentum is also a hell of a drug. A 4-0 team wearing special unis at home with a rowdy fanbase - we can make something happen against Tennessee. If we win one of them or Aggy, our trajectory changes a whole lot. I genuinely think that would carry over into us beating Florida and Texsa. (I'm really an Arch hater if you haven't noticed) Then you're 7-1 and wins against Arkansas and OM away from 9-3 and being a playoff bubble team. If you lose those two, there's still a chance at 8-4.
With that being said, a look ahead to our schedule.
NIU - We have put ourselves in the spot where we have no excuse not to win this game handily. Should be in the 20-30 range. Yes, we shouldn't overlook them, but this is a message board. I'm not on the team.
Tennessee - The offense looks very good when on-script. The defense looks very suspect. If we can get into a track meet and keep pace - I'm curious how they'll handle adversity on the road. We both come off what should be routine G5 wins. FPI - 18.8%. My gut is 25%.
@ Aggy - Reed can pose problems with his speed. I wish we could have afforded to keep Craver. Our defense will have its work cut out for it. They come off of play Auburn so both of us will be fresh off that first SEC taste in our mouths. Their defense is way worse than I anticipate for an Elko defense. We always seem to both them with our games. FPI - 20.3%. My gut is 33.33%
@ UF - We get a bye to lick any wounds from Aggy & Tennessee. Florida comes out of playing what likely will be a battle of bottom 3 QBs in the SEC between them and Texsa and then dealing with Aggy. Their defense is stout. Their offense is bad. DJ L is this year's DJ U. 5 INTs against LSU. A bad loss to a USF team that Miami made look like a joke. We could win this game scoring 14 points. There's also the very real chance florida comes in 1-5. They play Miami, Texas, Aggy. They have a bye week after us. There's a very real possibility we deal with Billy's last stand and he's fired regardless of outcome after our game. I think it's a loss. FPI - 26.7%. My gut - 66.66%
vs. Texsa - The secret is out. Arch stinks. He can't throw 5 yard outs accurately. Stop him from running and you can beat him. This game looks more winnable by the week. If we show up 6-1 or better - we could get College Gameday against what I anticipate to be a 5-2 Texsa team. (I think OU takes the RRS). Their defense is stout and that will be the toughest leap here. FPI - 13.3%. My gut is 25%.
@ Ark - OM showed that anyone can look good against that defense. But their offense has wheels. We'll have to win the track meet. Arkansas also is staring at a precarious schedule. @ Memphis, vs. ND, @ Tenn, vs Aggy, vs Auburn, then us. I see a very real reality where they are 3-5 or even 2-6 coming in to our game. They have a bye after us. It could be similar to Florida where adam Pittman's fate is sealed regardless of outcome. We matchup well with them on our O vs. D. If we contain their QB, big if, we should win. I think FPI will shift a lot here. FPI - 21.6%. My gut is 66.66%
vs. Georgia. - Georgia battled adversity on the road and adapted to the need. They also were susceptible to the 50-50 long ball. I don't really see much of a shot here unless we hit on almost every 50-50 bomb. FPI - 16.2%. My gut - 5%.
@ Mizz - This game looks tougher every week. Their backup QB should have been the starter all along. He's legit. I don't like where this falls on our schedule. I don't like anything about it honestly. FPI - 19.8%. My gut is 10%.
vs. OM - The rebs might have found a QB who doesn't stare everything down. This is not good. Simmons sucked. The Ferris State kid looks good. Defense is same ol porous shit. It's Egg Bowl. I see them coming in 7-4 or 6-5 and dejected they aren't the playoff contenders they try to tell themselves they are. We both come in off a bye. I think Lebby knows he needs this win for perception and momentum. This will be a high scoring affair, but I suspect State pulls it out. FPI - 17.4%. My gut is 50.5%. Give .5% to the home team in this rivalry.
Overall - you've got 5 teams a lot of people currently would write as no shot. Two weeks ago it was 7 teams. Think what it will be in two more weeks. The path to 8-4 is there. 9-3 if things break really right for us. Momentum is also a hell of a drug. A 4-0 team wearing special unis at home with a rowdy fanbase - we can make something happen against Tennessee. If we win one of them or Aggy, our trajectory changes a whole lot. I genuinely think that would carry over into us beating Florida and Texsa. (I'm really an Arch hater if you haven't noticed) Then you're 7-1 and wins against Arkansas and OM away from 9-3 and being a playoff bubble team. If you lose those two, there's still a chance at 8-4.