Prediction - State has two 100 yrd rushers at USM

[cheewgumm]

Lebby will be run run run imo.cant mess this one up.

2 guys will go for 100.

[Todd4State]

I hope so.

[MStateDawg]

I think we have too much depth at RB for this to happen in game 1. The carries will be spread around 4 backs. 200+ yards total rushing should be a given, but 2 backs each getting 100+ is unlikely

[BeardoMSU]

I think we have too much depth at RB for this to happen in game 1. The carries will be spread around 4 backs. 200+ yards total rushing should be a given, but 2 backs each getting 100+ is unlikely

1 or 2 guys break off 70+ yarders***

[DEDawg]

I don?t know about yards, but I can see 3 different guys with a rushing TD. Side note: did not realize Shapen had 2 last year in limited time. He was 10 TD to 1 INT last year. We could be decent this year

[Coach34]

Very possibly. Need to be over 200 yards rushing fo sho

[TrapGame]

Isn't Lebby mostly 60/40 run/pass? I think he sticks with his usual ratios but we will be so much better in the ground game that it looks like he's running the ball more.

I can see one RB getting 100+ yards and two others with 40.

[Todd4State]

Isn't Lebby mostly 60/40 run/pass? I think he sticks with his usual ratios but we will be so much better in the ground game that it looks like he's running the ball more.

I can see one RB getting 100+ yards and two others with 40.

Analytically, last year we were 60/40 pass/run. That includes all drop backs- sacks, scrambles etc.

At Oklahoma the year before he was 53/47 using the same metric.

We'll see- it's hard to say IMO because Lebby has been a head coach for one year and therefore has really only had free reign on play calling for one year. That makes me think he may be more pass heavy than Oklahoma. The run/pass ratio was a little surprising to me given that Van Buren was our QB and that would make me guess that we would have been more run oriented. Situationally, passing more makes sense because we were behind often.

My guess is we're likely going to be 55/45 pass/run.

Yes, running backs are a strength of this team but not all their touches will be carries. Booth will line up at WR at times and he and Fluff will likely catch passes out of the backfield traditionally as well.

Also, I think we have a strong group of WR's and TE's as well that we will target frequently. So, there shouldn't really be a reason to rely on the running backs to carry the load especially with a polished senior QB in Shapen. Now, yes- injuries may change that but I don't think Kroemenhoeck is nearly as raw as MVB was.

I will say this- I don't expect Booth and Fluff to completely split carries evenly as well. Barring injuries. I think Booth will get slightly more touches. I don't expect this to be a Michael Davis/Kevin Bouie situation.

[Really Clark?]

Analytically, last year we were 60/40 pass/run. That includes all drop backs- sacks, scrambles etc.

At Oklahoma the year before he was 53/47 using the same metric.

We'll see- it's hard to say IMO because Lebby has been a head coach for one year and therefore has really only had free reign on play calling for one year. That makes me think he may be more pass heavy than Oklahoma. The run/pass ratio was a little surprising to me given that Van Buren was our QB and that would make me guess that we would have been more run oriented. Situationally, passing more makes sense because we were behind often.

My guess is we're likely going to be 55/45 pass/run.

Yes, running backs are a strength of this team but not all their touches will be carries. Booth will line up at WR at times and he and Fluff will likely catch passes out of the backfield traditionally as well.

Also, I think we have a strong group of WR's and TE's as well that we will target frequently. So, there shouldn't really be a reason to rely on the running backs to carry the load especially with a polished senior QB in Shapen. Now, yes- injuries may change that but I don't think Kroemenhoeck is nearly as raw as MVB was.

I will say this- I don't expect Booth and Fluff to completely split carries evenly as well. Barring injuries. I think Booth will get slightly more touches. I don't expect this to be a Michael Davis/Kevin Bouie situation.

Not sure where you pulled those percentages but we called nearly 50/50 run to pass plays, very slightly more rushes last year. 50.13% rushes to 49.87% called passing plays. Per Team Rankings analytics

[StarkVegasSteve]

I highly doubt we have 2 go over 100 yds unless both Booth and Bothwell break long 50+ yd runs. There's too much depth in that room

[Todd4State]

Not sure where you pulled those percentages but we called nearly 50/50 run to pass plays, very slightly more rushes last year. 50.13% rushes to 49.87% called passing plays. Per Team Rankings analytics

https://x.com/jbuddavis/status/1958895103780561387?s=46&t=9hORli1j-tihHXxpBLPOpg

[StarkVegasSteve]

Analytically, last year we were 60/40 pass/run. That includes all drop backs- sacks, scrambles etc.

At Oklahoma the year before he was 53/47 using the same metric.

We'll see- it's hard to say IMO because Lebby has been a head coach for one year and therefore has really only had free reign on play calling for one year. That makes me think he may be more pass heavy than Oklahoma. The run/pass ratio was a little surprising to me given that Van Buren was our QB and that would make me guess that we would have been more run oriented. Situationally, passing more makes sense because we were behind often.

My guess is we're likely going to be 55/45 pass/run.

Yes, running backs are a strength of this team but not all their touches will be carries. Booth will line up at WR at times and he and Fluff will likely catch passes out of the backfield traditionally as well.

Also, I think we have a strong group of WR's and TE's as well that we will target frequently. So, there shouldn't really be a reason to rely on the running backs to carry the load especially with a polished senior QB in Shapen. Now, yes- injuries may change that but I don't think Kroemenhoeck is nearly as raw as MVB was.

I will say this- I don't expect Booth and Fluff to completely split carries evenly as well. Barring injuries. I think Booth will get slightly more touches. I don't expect this to be a Michael Davis/Kevin Bouie situation.

We were more pass oriented last year because of Van Buren. He couldn't throw the short to intermediate passes so if we didn't get 5-7 yards on 1st down with a run we were basically chunking deep balls the rest of the drive.

I think you will see an offense this year that mirrors the OM offense of 2021, albeit less designed QB runs. I think we'll be somewhere in the range of 53-58/47-42 run/pass. Jeff and Co know we have a stable of very HIGH LEVEL running backs and they are really going to lean on them. Especially early on when we are still seeing what receivers separate themselves.

[BuckyIsAB****]

I hope it?s closer to 70 30 Run pass with the pass game being quick game, RPO and shot plays off hard play action, max protect. We have a big OL 3 SEC backs and some speed at WR. I don?t see what else we should do

[BuckyIsAB****]

And 3 TEs that can play

[DEDawg]

I hope it?s closer to 70 30 Run pass with the pass game being quick game, RPO and shot plays off hard play action, max protect. We have a big OL 3 SEC backs and some speed at WR. I don?t see what else we should do

That is way too high imo. Maybe if it is the LK or KT package but you are leaving a lot on the table with a 5th year QB doing that

[TrapGame]

Question for the board.

Do we currently have better backs than Oklahoma during Lebby's tenure there?

[StarkVegasSteve]

Question for the board.

Do we currently have better backs than Oklahoma during Lebby's tenure there?

Eric Gray may have been a better top end feature back than Booth or Bothwell CURRENTLY, but this will be the best overall room Lebby has ever had. Going all the way back to Baylor.

[archdog]

Yes, without looking them up.
OL though? Don't know.

[EdwardDrayton]

Bless your heart *****

But I'll be there in the off chance it does happen.

[parabrave]

this sounds like a good sub bet for BYA. Is there gonna be any this year?

[Homedawg]

I hope it?s closer to 70 30 Run pass with the pass game being quick game, RPO and shot plays off hard play action, max protect. We have a big OL 3 SEC backs and some speed at WR. I don?t see what else we should do

Lebby has never ever been anywhere close to 70/30

[PGHBulldogBG]

Lebby has to know in the back of his head there is a strong chance Shapen gets hurt. I think 55/45 run/pass is what we see but if Shapen gets hurt I see more like 60/40 or closer to 65/35. Shapen has good arm strength and the potential to be a good QB for us if he can maintain from getting injured. OL is the main concern I have offensively.

[BuckyIsAB****]

That is way too high imo. Maybe if it is the LK or KT package but you are leaving a lot on the table with a 5th year QB doing that

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly

[BuckyIsAB****]

Lebby has never ever been anywhere close to 70/30

Better lean that way this time. You have 2 TE, 3 proven SEC backs, one of the biggest and most improved OLs in the conference, an injury prone QB and no proven WRs. You run the ball, you max protect and take shots out of 12 personnel. That is hell on a defense. You are getting 2 1v1s for what is a fast WR group and you do have an athletic TE in Traore. When you do throw it it is quick game get it out fast. Bubbles, hitch, etc

[Brobi-wan]

Better lean that way this time. You have 2 TE, 3 proven SEC backs, one of the biggest and most improved OLs in the conference, an injury prone QB and no proven WRs. You run the ball, you max protect and take shots out of 12 personnel. That is hell on a defense. You are getting 2 1v1s for what is a fast WR group and you do have an athletic TE in Traore. When you do throw it it is quick game get it out fast. Bubbles, hitch, etc

I don’t actually hate this idea. I think this game plan could help you steal a win or two by shortening games if the defense can hold at all.

[Todd4State]

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly

I'm not sure that we had one really last year either. This offense by scheme allows WR's to thrive even if they aren't the most proven. I think we are as good or better at WR than we were at this time last year. Mosley, Brennen Thompson, Anthony Evans, Ayden Williams, and SanFrisco Magee are all really talented and have various levels of WR experience in the SEC. Then you have Ricky Johnson.

[Todd4State]

Lebby has to know in the back of his head there is a strong chance Shapen gets hurt. I think 55/45 run/pass is what we see but if Shapen gets hurt I see more like 60/40 or closer to 65/35. Shapen has good arm strength and the potential to be a good QB for us if he can maintain from getting injured. OL is the main concern I have offensively.

I think we should just play call like normal and if Shapen gets hurt he gets hurt. That's why we got Kromenhoek. It seems like whenever we play to call to keep a QB from getting hurt it always backfires because we end up being overly conservative.

[ZedFedder]

I'm not sure that we had one really last year either. This offense by scheme allows WR's to thrive even if they aren't the most proven. I think we are as good or better at WR than we were at this time last year. Mosley, Brennen Thompson, Anthony Evans, Ayden Williams, and SanFrisco Magee are all really talented and have various levels of WR experience in the SEC. Then you have Ricky Johnson.

Correct. Kevin Coleman had done pretty much nothing before last season.

[DEDawg]

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly

That doesnt mean we only should throw the ball 30%? WR will emerge throughout the season

[StarkVegasSteve]

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly

We didn't last year either and were just fine. This offense is going to produce 65/850/8. It's done it everywhere. From UCF to Ole Miss to Oklahoma and here last year.

[archdog]

I don’t actually hate this idea. I think this game plan could help you steal a win or two by shortening games if the defense can hold at all.

Bingo. This is the only way I see us getting to 6 wins.

[TrapGame]

I don’t actually hate this idea. I think this game plan could help you steal a win or two by shortening games if the defense can hold at all.

Isn't that kind of like what South Carolina was doing last year?

[Todd4State]

Isn't that kind of like what South Carolina was doing last year?

Not that extreme. They were 60/40 run pass using traditional data. So including scrambles and sacks they were probably more like 50/50 or close to it.

I couldn't find advanced data for them so I went with traditional.

[Coach34]

#RTGDF and take shots down the field

[bulldawg28]

#RTGDF and take shots down the field

This ALL DAY! The one thing this new agenda football has done is taken the physical component away and turned things into a pass league. These Defenses have resorted to smaller faster guys.

Being a physical team will and running the ball will win games in today's climate. We could use Arizona state as a model from last year. Teams that run the ball win championships in high school, college, and pro. All the current champions have one thing in common, they are run heavy!

[TrapGame]

I do not think USM will be good enough on defense to stop our ground game and Lebby is going to exploit that.

Borky and Haddad were talking yesterday about hearing things from people at practice and scrimmages that see big improvements on both sides of the ball. They (the folks they spoke with) are quietly optimistic that we are going to be a lot better than most people think.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I do not think USM will be good enough on defense to stop our ground game and Lebby is going to exploit that.

Borky and Haddad were talking yesterday about hearing things from people at practice and scrimmages that see big improvements on both sides of the ball. They (the folks they spoke with) are quietly optimistic that we are going to be a lot better than most people think.

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.

[DEDawg]

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.

Yeah this is great. Shapen throws a great deep ball and we have elite speed on the outside. Dominate on the ground and take shots downfield when they present. Play SEC defense and claw our way to 6 wins.

[Todd4State]

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.

I bet Shapen doesn't run it 152 times this year though. Corral was a big part of their run game and I know we're talking strictly about ratios here but if you reduce the QB runs it's likely to make the ratios smaller. I'm talking 55/45 here for reference run/pass.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised that as receivers emerge we evolve to Lebby's norm as the season progresses.

[Todd4State]

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.

Off topic- didn't MSU hire some football analytics guys in the offseason or did I make that up?

[Coach34]

Also, I wouldn't be surprised that as receivers emerge we evolve to Lebby's norm as the season progresses.

Shapen was on pace for about 9 carries per last season when he got hurt. If he continues that pace again this season- he wont make it to the Fla game

[Todd4State]

Shapen was on pace for about 9 carries per last season when he got hurt. If he continues that pace again this season- he wont make it to the Fla game

No doubt! I don't think we'll completely eliminate QB runs or anything like that either but ideally he would have half that many carries including scrambles and sacks.

And he needs to be smarter when he is running. No more taking on linebackers head on if possible.

[confucius say]

Shapen was on pace for about 9 carries per last season when he got hurt. If he continues that pace again this season- he wont make it to the Fla game

Does that include sacks and scrambles?