Arizona St Game

[StarkVegasSteve]

This doesn't need repeating, because it will be repeated 4500 more times til kick, but this game will decide the Jeff Lebby era. It's crazy to think that a game against a consensus top 15 team with a QB that's getting Heisman pub is that consequential, but it is. We HAVE to win the Arizona State game.

I mean does anyone else see another way to get to 6 wins without Arizona St?

[Tater]

This doesn't need repeating, because it will be repeated 4500 more times til kick, but this game will decide the Jeff Lebby era. It's crazy to think that a game against a consensus top 15 team with a QB that's getting Heisman pub is that consequential, but it is. We HAVE to win the Arizona State game.

I mean does anyone else see another way to get to 6 wins without Arizona St?

Every game but Georgia is "upsettable". Arkansas / OM / Florida / UTKnox / Aggy / Mizz / Texsa / Georgia in order of there's a chance to no shot. You could grab 3 of those if things break wrong for other teams.

A 4-1 State team is just as likely as a 2-3 or 1-4 start.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Every game but Georgia is "upsettable". Arkansas / OM / Florida / UTKnox / Aggy / Mizz / Texsa / Georgia in order of there's a chance to no shot. You could grab 3 of those if things break wrong for other teams.

A 4-1 State team is just as likely as a 2-3 or 1-4 start.

See I think UGA is more gettable than Texas. Texas is very good and they have a QB. UGA is breaking in a new QB that doesn't seem as good as either of the last two and has less weapons than the last two.

[Tater]

See I think UGA is more gettable than Texas. Texas is very good and they have a QB. UGA is breaking in a new QB that doesn't seem as good as either of the last two and has less weapons than the last two.

Yea but I don't like Texsa or the name Manning so I'm interjecting personal bias into my evaluation.

Also I'd put the ASU game around the Florida / UTKnox realm.

[MStateDawg]

Texas is very good and they have a QB. UGA is breaking in a new QB

Just some perspective:
Arch Manning has 95 career pass attempts. https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4870906/arch-manning
Gunner Stockton has 83 career pass attempts. https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4685578/gunner-stockton

Both these teams will be breaking in new QBs.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Just some perspective:
Arch Manning has 95 career pass attempts. https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4870906/arch-manning
Gunner Stockton has 83 career pass attempts. https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4685578/gunner-stockton

Both these teams will be breaking in new QBs.

Well but Arch has starts and he played in games in big time moments last year. It's akin to Tebow when he took over for Lee. He was ready to take over.

[DownwardDawg]

This doesn't need repeating, because it will be repeated 4500 more times til kick, but this game will decide the Jeff Lebby era. It's crazy to think that a game against a consensus top 15 team with a QB that's getting Heisman pub is that consequential, but it is. We HAVE to win the Arizona State game.

I mean does anyone else see another way to get to 6 wins without Arizona St?

I just don't see us beating a team that just made the playoffs and got much better throughout the season.
If that game decides Lebby's career, then he's in big trouble.

[MStateDawg]

Well but Arch has starts and he played in games in big time moments last year.

Arch started vs ULM & State last year. Not exactly stellar defenses.
Stockton played the 2nd half of the SEC Championship Game and UGA's playoff game versus Notre Dame.

If anything, Stockton has more experience in big time situations.

[msstate7]

See I think UGA is more gettable than Texas. Texas is very good and they have a QB. UGA is breaking in a new QB that doesn't seem as good as either of the last two and has less weapons than the last two.

I don't think either are possible

[PGHBulldogBG]

I am not a Lebby fan and even I don?t think that game should decide his career. It?s just one game in a long season. If he can win 4 he gets one more year to prove he can take us to a bowl game. If he does that I will start believing. Until then, he has proven nothing. His recruiting is bad high school wise. Portal pretty OK though given the situation. At the same time I understand we need stability and if he can show steady improvement each year then that?s good progress considering the horrible situation he inherited

[viverlibre]

This doesn't need repeating, because it will be repeated 4500 more times til kick, but this game will decide the Jeff Lebby era. It's crazy to think that a game against a consensus top 15 team with a QB that's getting Heisman pub is that consequential, but it is. We HAVE to win the Arizona State game.

I mean does anyone else see another way to get to 6 wins without Arizona St?

1. No one with realistic expectations thinks we?ll get 6.
2. ASU is not must win, but the other 3 non conference games are.
3. Levee?s floor is 4, lose one of the non conference games means he?ll need to beat Ark or Misery on the road or OM at home.
4. Win 6 and Levee is national coach of the year.

[99jc]

1. No one with realistic expectations thinks we?ll get 6.
2. ASU is not must win, but the other 3 non conference games are.
3. Levee?s floor is 4, lose one of the non conference games means he?ll need to beat Ark or Misery on the road or OM at home.
4. Win 6 and Levee is national coach of the year.

i don't know why but i think we get 6 wins. this team will be much better than that stank show last year!

[confucius say]

I am not a Lebby fan and even I don?t think that game should decide his career. It?s just one game in a long season. If he can win 4 he gets one more year to prove he can take us to a bowl game. If he does that I will start believing. Until then, he has proven nothing. His recruiting is bad high school wise. Portal pretty OK though given the situation. At the same time I understand we need stability and if he can show steady improvement each year then that?s good progress considering the horrible situation he inherited

Fair post. Refreshing.

[Bdawg]

This doesn't need repeating, because it will be repeated 4500 more times til kick, but this game will decide the Jeff Lebby era. It's crazy to think that a game against a consensus top 15 team with a QB that's getting Heisman pub is that consequential, but it is. We HAVE to win the Arizona State game.

I mean does anyone else see another way to get to 6 wins without Arizona St?

Win 3 of Ar, OM, Tenn, Mizz, or Fl. Just have to hope we are a little better than we think we may be. Run the ball and control the games. Try in some way to keep our defense off the field or at least fresher so they don’t get gassed. Shorten the games to hopefully keep them close.

[TrapGame]

Not having a legit run game last year kept the Lebby offense stagnant. If we have a decent run game this year it is going to open it up for Shapen.

Winning vs ASU would do a lot to give Lebby and the team a big boost. It would mean 6 wins is very possible.

[Bdawg]

Not having a legit run game last year kept the Lebby offense stagnant. If we have a decent run game this year it is going to open it up for Shapen.

Winning vs ASU would do a lot to give Lebby and the team a big boost. It would mean 6 wins is very possible.

Run game got better towards the end. We need to pick up where we left off there and improve upon it. The RB room looks pretty good! Hope the OL pans out. If so, we will be a much better team than last year. Oh and the OL keeps Shapen upright and injury free. Hard to win with the situation we had last year

[Pancho]

I figure Lebby wins the first 4. Just a feeling. I said win them, not by much but wins.

[TrapGame]

Run game got better towards the end. We need to pick up where we left off there and improve upon it. The RB room looks pretty good! Hope the OL pans out. If so, we will be a much better team than last year. Oh and the OL keeps Shapen upright and injury free. Hard to win with the situation we had last year

Yep, spot on. The run game got better but our true freshmen QB couldn't exploit it. He just didn't have the reps and experience. I think we are going to be considerably better on both sides of the ball. We'll have a decent shot at winning 6 games. If we don't, well it is what it is.

[Pancho]

The product is noticeably improved but we play in the SEC..........

[Johnson85]

This doesn't need repeating, because it will be repeated 4500 more times til kick, but this game will decide the Jeff Lebby era. It's crazy to think that a game against a consensus top 15 team with a QB that's getting Heisman pub is that consequential, but it is. We HAVE to win the Arizona State game.

I mean does anyone else see another way to get to 6 wins without Arizona St?

I'm not sure I see a way to 6 wins with ASU. Lebby has to win 4 and be competitive in most games. I'm not optimistic that we're going to manage that.

[confucius say]

Just being competitive and not getting blown out every sec game will be nice. We've lost 12 straight sec games by double digits.

[Brobi-wan]

I think the ASU game is the biggest of his career so far. I?ll be there for it. I?ll watch us go big or implode.

[viverlibre]

Win 3 of Ar, OM, Tenn, Mizz, or Fl.

You mean win one of these?

[viverlibre]

i don't know why but i think we get 6 wins. this team will be much better than that stank show last year!

The issue is our schedule is beyond brutal. We can be much improved and only win 4 (3 really).

[Bdawg]

You mean win one of these?

Well the OP said how do we get to six wins but lose to ASU so you got to win 3 non con and 3 sec. Tall task I know.

[Todd4State]

Not having a legit run game last year kept the Lebby offense stagnant. If we have a decent run game this year it is going to open it up for Shapen.

Winning vs ASU would do a lot to give Lebby and the team a big boost. It would mean 6 wins is very possible.

Our defense not being able to get off the field was a bigger factor to me.

[Rawdawg]

You don?t get to six wins without ASU, and there?s a world where you don?t get to 4 without them either? This is also assuming we beat USM in Hattiesburg at 11AM in 110 degree heat. The most MSU thing of all time would be going down there and shitting the bed, and if that happens put a fork in Lebby, ASU won?t matter.

[TrapGame]

Our defense not being able to get off the field was a bigger factor to me.

They both cost us points and maybe two extra wins.

[Political Hack]

Texas, UGA, and Arizona State are our 3 toughest games in my opinion. Arizona State returns more starters than almost any team in the nation. They are loaded. Have continuity. And we play them early. Terrible recipe for us. If we win that game, we're absolutely bowling. Lose and we still have an outside chance.

People thinking ASU is not a top 4-5 team on our schedule is an out of place "SEC-bias" to me.

[confucius say]

Yep. They return 17 starters, including their qb is who Big 12 preseason player of the year.

[EdwardDrayton]

Have my tickets and will be there with bells on. :)

[No BS Dawg]

It is nice and fun to dream. Reality will not be so nice and fun.

[Pancho]

We should be 2-0 when we see AZ State. This game will be a view into the rest of the season for sure.

[StarkVegasSteve]

We should be 2-0 when we see AZ State. This game will be a view into the rest of the season for sure.

Did we add a Week 0 game without me knowing????

[Pancho]

my bad, had a brain fart and thought alcorn was game 2. oops

[99jc]

ASU beat us by 7 points at their house they had a NFL running back and we had a lame duck coach who drives naked through Wendys. I don't know where the 17 yawls brain cells are. I think now we beat the shit out of them!

[DownwardDawg]

ASU beat us by 7 points at their house they had a NFL running back and we had a lame duck coach who drives naked through Wendys. I don't know where the 17 yawls brain cells are. I think now we beat the shit out of them!

Bro. Lebby was our coach when they beat us. Talk about brain cells......

[99jc]

Bro. Lebby was our coach when they beat us. Talk about brain cells......

just trying to show how stupid our fans our thinking this shitty team will come to our house and beat us....Time to get our swag back!

[StarkVegasSteve]

just trying to show how stupid our fans our thinking this shitty team will come to our house and beat us....Time to get our swag back!

"This shitty team" went to the playoffs last year and will be preseason top 15. We have to have this win to get to 6 IMO, which is why I say it's the most important game of the Lebby era because we HAVE to find a way to win 6 this year, but acting like this is some throwaway game where we'll walk in and dirt roll them is having way too much belief in a team that went 2-10 last year. It's also the exact type of belief that we had last year rolling into Tempe.

Saying all that, I don't think they'll be as good this year because I don't think Sam Leavitt can carry a team. He feels a little Nick Marshall-ish to me. Not that they play the same style but in 13 Marshall had all those weapons around him and everyone thought he was a great QB. In 14 those weapons left and they went 8-5.

[TrapGame]

"This shitty team" went to the playoffs last year and will be preseason top 15. We have to have this win to get to 6 IMO, which is why I say it's the most important game of the Lebby era because we HAVE to find a way to win 6 this year, but acting like this is some throwaway game where we'll walk in and dirt roll them is having way too much belief in a team that went 2-10 last year. It's also the exact type of belief that we had last year rolling into Tempe.

Saying all that, I don't think they'll be as good this year because I don't think Sam Leavitt can carry a team. He feels a little Nick Marshall-ish to me. Not that they play the same style but in 13 Marshall had all those weapons around him and everyone thought he was a great QB. In 14 those weapons left and they went 8-5.

ASU rolled when Skattebo rolled. If a defense shut down Skat then the team struggled. They will miss Skat this season. That was a bad ass white boy.

[Goldendawg]

This 100%., regarding our "D" couldn't get off the field last year BTW: just got an email on ticket availability from Premium Seating to even $40 tickets in the MSU Section at "The Rock". Also, tickets for the AZ State home opener are available starting at less than $25. Wow, how much lower until we hit rock bottom and I don't mean at "The RocK", hopefully, or our somewhat wobbly wheels will come off!

[parabrave]

Yep. They return 17 starters, including their qb is who Big 12 preseason player of the year.

But the player who killed us is gone. The defense was the problem espically the dam line

[Coach34]

But the player who killed us is gone. The defense was the problem espically the dam line

I promise- they will have another RB thats fairly solid. They are a Top 20 football team. Would be a great win if we can pull off the upset

[99jc]

I promise- they will have another RB thats fairly solid. They are a Top 20 football team. Would be a great win if we can pull off the upset

We will beat them put money on it! We only lost by 7 there last year and we are better!

[parabrave]

We will beat them put money on it! We only lost by 7 there last year and we are better!

Only if the DL learned how to get in the O Backfield and how to tackle.

[Coach34]

We will beat them put money on it! We only lost by 7 there last year and we are better!

They have 17 starters returning and we are plugging in a bunch of new guys. We may win and I fing hope we do. But I just cant put money on us before watching us vs the Nasty Bunch

[1eyedog]

JMHO....The DOGS should beat these type teams. Even the great Georgia teams historically the DOGS could play with, they traditionally don?t score a lot of points bur play off their defense and running game. Bama for some reason have a mental image......as well as that school over there most years. I truly hope Coach L has an incredible turn around.......as I said before.....I really would LOVE to see the DOGS on a big time saturday night game to go along with a Tiger Stadium game....go ?DOGS? !!!!

[TrapGame]

They have 17 starters returning and we are plugging in a bunch of new guys. We may win and I fing hope we do. But I just cant put money on us before watching us vs the Nasty Bunch

But we are plugging in better talent than last year. We lost that game in Tempe by a touchdown. One dropped sure TD pass and a pass into the RZ that got called back for bogus offensive PI and we are probably tied or up a TD late in he 4th.

Now, having said that, if we totally blow the USM game I'm pretty much done. Their athletic department is a absolute joke. I know people that used to work in it and they needed another job to make ends meet. We blow this game and Lebby is on borrowed time.

[Coach34]

But we are plugging in better talent than last year. We lost that game in Tempe by a touchdown. One dropped sure TD pass and a pass into the RZ that got called back for bogus offensive PI and we are probably tied or up a TD late in he 4th.

Now, having said that, if we totally blow the USM game I'm pretty much done. Their athletic department is a absolute joke. I know people that used to work in it and they needed another job to make ends meet. We blow this game and Lebby is on borrowed time.

well you also have to look at them having a bunch of guys that are in their 2nd season in the program. They are experienced and know the Off and Def

[wablty]

ASU beat us by 7 points at their house they had a NFL running back and we had a lame duck coach who drives naked through Wendys. I don't know where the 17 yawls brain cells are. I think now we beat the shit out of them!

Hi, ASU fan. I wouldn't put much stock in the major regression because RB is gone angle.

Shaun Aguano has been the RB coach across staffs since 2019. He replaced Eno Benjamin with Rachaad White. He meant to replace White with Chip Trayanum, but he got homesick and went to go be a backup at Ohio State, so they brought in Vallady (who was great for a year). Then into Cam Skattebo. Now it's Kanye Udoh (1,100 yds, 12 TDs) from a 12 win team, plus the depth built up. Raleek Brown is, apparently, healthy for the first time since he was a 5 star freshman at USC and looking great. tldr, don't expect ASU's RBs to suck.

ASU's flaw, if you can call it that, is they're relying on transfer WRs to give them more dynamic receiving options besides Tyson and Metayer and their DL, which returns 7 of the top 8 and held Texas to 50 yards rushing, doesn't get tons of pressure. Solid at stopping the run, not a ton of juice so far at getting to the passer.

All that being said, I think the early road game to you guys could be a very dangerous game for us. Mississippi State got better. I'm anticipating a tough, physical game that y'all have a reasonable chance to win if you've got decent play from the QB.

IF you can't throw enough to make ASU respect it, we're probably going to boat race you unless the existing DL just had a massive "Look how cool we are" playoff regression. Because it's the same dudes, pretty much everywhere except WR, C and RB.

[wablty]

I promise- they will have another RB thats fairly solid. They are a Top 20 football team. Would be a great win if we can pull off the upset

Shaun Aguano, ASU's RB coach, started there in 2019. He had Eno Benjamin, who was good. Then he had Rachaad White who was good. Then Chip Trayanum got homesick and transferred to Ohio State to be a backup linebacker or something, so they brought in Valladay who was excellent. Into Cam Skattebo. Now it's Kanye Udoh, and rumor is Raleek Brown (former 5 star and 'next big thing' at USC) is finally healthy since early in his freshman year. I'm just an ASU fan passing through, so take it for what it's worth, but we aren't worried about running back. Prognosticators are, but they're dumb. We're gonna be pretty okay there.

The biggest issue for ASU is likely the pass rush. 7 of the top 8 from the DL are returned, but they didn't get a ton of pressure last year. They're all old, developed players, and it's now or never for them to show some juice. Previously? Good against the run (top rushing defense in Big 12, held Texas to 50 yards), but no reliable pressure. Which is why they sent the house and lost to Texas on 4th and 13. If your QB can pat the ball and make things happen, you've got a pretty decent chance to pull off an upset.

[Ezsoil]

Only if the DL learned how to get in the O Backfield and how to tackle.

Well looking back at last years OM game ..I felt the defensive scheme was quite good...much better than earlier in the year ...there was better gap integrity and it appeared we were better prepared and were in the right set on certain down and distance situations.

[Pinto]

Only 22 out of 133 teams have 11 or more returning starters on their rosters. Arizona State has 17.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Hi, ASU fan. I wouldn't put much stock in the major regression because RB is gone angle.

Shaun Aguano has been the RB coach across staffs since 2019. He replaced Eno Benjamin with Rachaad White. He meant to replace White with Chip Trayanum, but he got homesick and went to go be a backup at Ohio State, so they brought in Vallady (who was great for a year). Then into Cam Skattebo. Now it's Kanye Udoh (1,100 yds, 12 TDs) from a 12 win team, plus the depth built up. Raleek Brown is, apparently, healthy for the first time since he was a 5 star freshman at USC and looking great. tldr, don't expect ASU's RBs to suck.

ASU's flaw, if you can call it that, is they're relying on transfer WRs to give them more dynamic receiving options besides Tyson and Metayer and their DL, which returns 7 of the top 8 and held Texas to 50 yards rushing, doesn't get tons of pressure. Solid at stopping the run, not a ton of juice so far at getting to the passer.

All that being said, I think the early road game to you guys could be a very dangerous game for us. Mississippi State got better. I'm anticipating a tough, physical game that y'all have a reasonable chance to win if you've got decent play from the QB.

IF you can't throw enough to make ASU respect it, we're probably going to boat race you unless the existing DL just had a massive "Look how cool we are" playoff regression. Because it's the same dudes, pretty much everywhere except WR, C and RB.

What are your thoughts on Leavitt? Can he rise to another level this year? It seemed like last year he just kind of managed the game and then Skattebo would take over late.

[Jack Lambert]

If they look crappy even with a win at USM he is in trouble.

[confucius say]

Meh. It's the first game with a ton of new players on both teams. Very little scout. Plus it's on the road and your opponent's Super Bowl.
Just win and get out of there.

[Hot Rock]

This doesn't need repeating, because it will be repeated 4500 more times til kick, but this game will decide the Jeff Lebby era. It's crazy to think that a game against a consensus top 15 team with a QB that's getting Heisman pub is that consequential, but it is. We HAVE to win the Arizona State game.

I mean does anyone else see another way to get to 6 wins without Arizona St?

Not me... Why this team won the BIG12 last year, has one of the QB's in the nation running it's offense. It only lost Scattaboo and it's running back room is as deep as ours. It has multiple high round draft picks on that defense

Must I go on?

Mississippi State does not have the proven players they have. We just brought in about 70 new players to roster just have the ability to have full practices. ASU will be favored and if you think this is a must win, then you don't know much about football and certainly about roster construction. We were a mess. Blame whoever but it's not on Lebby for what he inherited.

The DC, better show some improvement or we get another one after this year. I say go after Brent Venables to be the DC with Lebby and then let's role.

[Bothrops]

If our program has any pride they won't lose to Arizona State at home, period.

[Tater]

ASU was up 30-3 with 20 minutes to go in our game last year. Could easily be argued they let off the gas and then got their act together when they gave up a dumb 80 yd bomb.

[Hot Rock]

If our program has any pride they won't lose to Arizona State at home, period.

and you don't know football at all if you truly believe that.

Arizona State was a playoff team last year that pushed Texas to the edge in the playoff game. They could have easily beaten them and been the team that faced Ohio State in the championship game.

They lost one player of note and he wass a big piece in RB Scattebo but everyone is back on a top rated defense, he QB is picked to be a Heisman candidate and they have several good RB's.

Anyone saying this is a must win for us is either lying on purpose or knows nothing of them or us.

Yes, Our talent level has improved but they have equal or better talent and have been together for years and proven they play well together. If anything, it's a must win for them.

[StarkVegasSteve]

and you don't know football at all if you truly believe that.

Arizona State was a playoff team last year that pushed Texas to the edge in the playoff game. They could have easily beaten them and been the team that faced Ohio State in the championship game.

They lost one player of note and he wass a big piece in RB Scattebo but everyone is back on a top rated defense, he QB is picked to be a Heisman candidate and they have several good RB's.

Anyone saying this is a must win for us is either lying on purpose or knows nothing of them or us.

Yes, Our talent level has improved but they have equal or better talent and have been together for years and proven they play well together. If anything, it's a must win for them.

No it's a must win for us. You can not like and not think it's fair all day long, and by the way I agree with you. It's not fair to hold us to that standard that we HAVE to beat Arizona St. But the fact of the matter is we do. Look, unless your head has been buried in the sand for the last 19 months, our program has ZERO juice. None. Zilch. Nada. Beating Arizona St gives you that juice. It means you're going to get 4-0 and you'll be 4-0 when Tennessee comes to town. If that's the case, DWS will be a zoo. It will be wild in there. You beat them and get to 5-0 and you just have to find ONE MORE WIN and you're in a bowl. And we desperately need a bowl game.

Now take the inverse of that, say we lose, that means AT BEST you're 3-1 going into Tennessee and out of all likelihood 3-2 coming out of it with A&M, Florida, and Texas. You'll be 3-5 coming out of that stretch and the season will be slipping through your grasp. At that point 3-9 looks a hell of a lot more likely than any other scenario. So at that point you'll have went 2-10 and 3-9 under Lebby with NO CONFERENCE WINS since October 21, 2023. Your program juice is gone and it will take you years to get it back. Because look, no one is going to take this job if you fire Lebby after 2 seasons after firing Arnett after 10 games. So if you don't fire Lebby, you'll have 40K in the stands and if you do it could be worse. Because you're not getting a sitting HC unless you take a chance on an up and coming G5 guy, who would have to completely rebuild the roster......yet again.

So should Arizona St be categorized as a must win or the most important game of the Jeff Lebby era? No. But it is. You need people to believe again.

[Coach34]

A) Lebby took over a rebuild that had gone Air Bone and a staff that didnt recruit very well at all

B) Lebby is getting 3 years at State unless he is caught with a goat or goes 0-12

C) We will be a home underdog vs Arizona St as they will be a Top 20 team coming in. Home underdogs win every weekend. Do I expect us to win? No. Do I hope we win? Yes. Close loss at home and we are ok- they are a good team. Home loss that is definitive? Thats bad and nothing can be salvaged from it.

D) Us winning 6 games this year has as much chance happening as Lemon running a marathon. We have to hope we win 1 SEC game. We are staring 0-8 in the SEC dead in the face again.

[Hot Rock]

A) Lebby took over a rebuild that had gone Air Bone and a staff that didnt recruit very well at all

B) Lebby is getting 3 years at State unless he is caught with a goat or goes 0-12

C) We will be a home underdog vs Arizona St as they will be a Top 20 team coming in. Home underdogs win every weekend. Do I expect us to win? No. Do I hope we win? Yes. Close loss at home and we are ok- they are a good team. Home loss that is definitive? Thats bad and nothing can be salvaged from it.

D) Us winning 6 games this year has as much chance happening as Lemon running a marathon. We have to hope we win 1 SEC game. We are staring 0-8 in the SEC dead in the face again.

All this is true but.... if State can beat ASU, I think they may get that SEC win and may even go bowling.

[Hot Rock]

No it's a must win for us. You can not like and not think it's fair all day long, and by the way I agree with you. It's not fair to hold us to that standard that we HAVE to beat Arizona St. But the fact of the matter is we do. Look, unless your head has been buried in the sand for the last 19 months, our program has ZERO juice. None. Zilch. Nada. Beating Arizona St gives you that juice. It means you're going to get 4-0 and you'll be 4-0 when Tennessee comes to town. If that's the case, DWS will be a zoo. It will be wild in there. You beat them and get to 5-0 and you just have to find ONE MORE WIN and you're in a bowl. And we desperately need a bowl game.

Now take the inverse of that, say we lose, that means AT BEST you're 3-1 going into Tennessee and out of all likelihood 3-2 coming out of it with A&M, Florida, and Texas. You'll be 3-5 coming out of that stretch and the season will be slipping through your grasp. At that point 3-9 looks a hell of a lot more likely than any other scenario. So at that point you'll have went 2-10 and 3-9 under Lebby with NO CONFERENCE WINS since October 21, 2023. Your program juice is gone and it will take you years to get it back. Because look, no one is going to take this job if you fire Lebby after 2 seasons after firing Arnett after 10 games. So if you don't fire Lebby, you'll have 40K in the stands and if you do it could be worse. Because you're not getting a sitting HC unless you take a chance on an up and coming G5 guy, who would have to completely rebuild the roster......yet again.

So should Arizona St be categorized as a must win or the most important game of the Jeff Lebby era? No. But it is. You need people to believe again.

I went through the 5 years of Croom with offense that could not complete a pass vs air and decades with only 1-5 seasons being winning seasons. No, it's not a must win. Mississippi State is bigger than wins and losses this one year. Lebby may get canned if another 2 win season happens but I don't expect that. But ASU a must win? Heck no, but fans may disappear. Stands will be empty and it could get ugly before it gets better but calling ASU a must win for this Staff is not accurate. That's a dang good team over there.

You are right that it would excite the fanbase if they did win it but does not make it a must win for Lebby or even Hutzler. Again, that is a dang good team in ASU and yes it will take years to come back. We on year two for Lebby, he gets three.. Hutzler gets this year.

In the end, Lebby may not work out but ASU is a top 20 program or even better with a Heisman candidate QB that had State down 30-3 in 3rd qt last year before they sent in the scrubs.

[confucius say]

and you don't know football at all if you truly believe that.

Arizona State was a playoff team last year that pushed Texas to the edge in the playoff game. They could have easily beaten them and been the team that faced Ohio State in the championship game.

They lost one player of note and he wass a big piece in RB Scattebo but everyone is back on a top rated defense, he QB is picked to be a Heisman candidate and they have several good RB's.

Anyone saying this is a must win for us is either lying on purpose or knows nothing of them or us.

Yes, Our talent level has improved but they have equal or better talent and have been together for years and proven they play well together. If anything, it's a must win for them.

Agree. It would be a signature win for us. But it's not a must win for Lebby's career.

[confucius say]

There is so much roster turnover from year to year that it's hard to know how good a team is this early, but you could convince me that we have a better chance of beating Ark, OM, and TN than ASU.

[Coach34]

All this is true but.... if State can beat ASU, I think they may get that SEC win and may even go bowling.

agreed. That game will tell us alot

[PGHBulldogBG]

ASU is going to be our 3rd hardest game outside of Texas and UGA. They return alot from a playoff team. I don?t see us winning that. Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

[Coach34]

Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

and again- we will be the underdog in all 3 games.

[StarkVegasSteve]

ASU is going to be our 3rd hardest game outside of Texas and UGA. They return alot from a playoff team. I don?t see us winning that. Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

If that is our best chance then we will be 3-9. Two of those are on the road and the other is OM, who we have beaten once since Kiffin got there.

[Coach34]

If that is our best chance then we will be 3-9. Two of those are on the road and the other is OM, who we have beaten once since Kiffin got there.

Exactly. People are trying to hang out hope Mississippi will underwhelm but from what I've seen their QB this year might be better than the one that just left. He'll **** up some because he is still young but his ceiling is sky high. Plus- the runs he will have will be more explosive than their previous guy. I dont think they will be as good as last year overall- but their explosiveness makes them just as dangerous.

UPig and Mizzou have just as much talent as we do- and they are at home. We could pull an upset on the road- but its gonna be tough.

[confucius say]

Exactly. People are trying to hang out hope Mississippi will underwhelm but from what I've seen their QB this year might be better than the one that just left. He'll **** up some because he is still young but his ceiling is sky high. Plus- the runs he will have will be more explosive than their previous guy. I dont think they will be as good as last year overall- but their explosiveness makes them just as dangerous.

UPig and Mizzou have just as much talent as we do- and they are at home. We could pull an upset on the road- but its gonna be tough.

You think Simmons is a better runner than Dart?

[Coach34]

You think Simmons is a better runner than Dart?

Yes- faster but not as physical

[MrCoachKlein]

Exactly. People are trying to hang out hope Mississippi will underwhelm but from what I've seen their QB this year might be better than the one that just left. He'll **** up some because he is still young but his ceiling is sky high. Plus- the runs he will have will be more explosive than their previous guy. I dont think they will be as good as last year overall- but their explosiveness makes them just as dangerous.


Our best shot against them is that he's out with explosive runs.

[shoeless joe]

I am of the opinion that we will not beat ASU...i hope i'm wrong.

That being said i keep seeing people throw out that "they were a playoff team last year"...and since i have lost a large portion of my college football enthusiasm due to the NIL and portal combination and don't keep up with it like i have in the past... my question is: if they had played a full SEC schedule would they have been a playoff team?

again...i get that their roster and probably talent level is greater than ours and us winning will be an upset, but them being a playoff team out of the pac10/big12 means very little to me.

[TrapGame]

If we can't beat ASU then we aren't winning a single SEC game. Mizzou supposedly upgraded their D with a couple of potential NFL caliber edge rushers plus Drink's offense is pretty good. Ark will be tough because Petrino can still coach an offense.

[CaptainObvious]

ASU is going to be our 3rd hardest game outside of Texas and UGA. They return alot from a playoff team. I don?t see us winning that. Our best chance for 6 is Ark, Mizzou and OM

Are they though?

Last year, 4 of their 7 conferences wins were against UCF, Kansas, Okie State, and Utah, all with losing records including OK St. going 0-9 Big 12.

Their 2.losses were to 8-5 Texas Tech and 5-7 Cincinnati, both on the road. They had several 1 score wins including 31-28 against Texas State where they had to kick a 4th Qtr. field goal to win.

Scattebo is gone. The road is difficult. Handle business at Hattiesburg and have a different game plan with better players against ASU. Things could go our way. The bottom of the SEC is better than the middle of the Big 12.

[confucius say]

Our best shot against them is that he's out with explosive runs.

What position groups of theirs are much better than ours, or better at all?

[PGHBulldogBG]

Are they though?

Last year, 4 of their 7 conferences wins were against UCF, Kansas, Okie State, and Utah, all with losing records including OK St. going 0-9 Big 12.

Their 2.losses were to 8-5 Texas Tech and 5-7 Cincinnati, both on the road. They had several 1 score wins including 31-28 against Texas State where they had to kick a 4th Qtr. field goal to win.

Scattebo is gone. The road is difficult. Handle business at Hattiesburg and have a different game plan with better players against ASU. Things could go our way. The bottom of the SEC is better than the middle of the Big 12.

Yes, they actually got a lot better as the year went on. They nearly beat Texas in the Peach Bowl after stubbing their toe a few times. In reality, they should have won that game and Texas was the 2nd best team in the SEC. They did lose Scattebo, but return 17 starters. I would anticipate they would be 5th in the SEC this year if they were in the SEC. We do not play Bama or LSU though so that is why I say they are the 3rd toughest game on the schedule. That being said, I by no means think we go 6-6. I was just saying that ASU is going to be better than Ark and Mizzou. Possibly a toss up with Ole Miss about whether they are better than them or not, but they are more experienced.

[MrCoachKlein]

What position groups of theirs are much better than ours, or better at all?

Everything except RB and maybe TE? Their front 7 is the biggest gap followed by QB, secondary/WR then OL. Wish 247 would release their team talent composite earlier than they do.

[confucius say]

Everything except RB and maybe TE? Their front 7 is the biggest gap followed by QB, secondary/WR then OL. Wish 247 would release their team talent composite earlier than they do.

Who on their DL is a big gap ahead of our DL? Same question for secondary and OL and WR. Below is their depth chart.

https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/ole-miss/91602

[MrCoachKlein]

Who on their DL is a big gap ahead of our DL? Same question for secondary and OL and WR. Below is their depth chart.

https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/ole-miss/91602

I'm not trying to be a downer just my opinion.

Going by ourlads starters, I'd take:
QB: OM
Simmons > Shapen - OM+

OL: OM - Going out on a limb and throwing Jimothy in there.
Lewis > Pounds - State +
Jackson > Townsend - State
Townsend > Keenum - OM
Kutas > Reese - OM +
Williams > Steen/Work - OM

WR: OM
Stribling > Mosley - OM +
Harrison > Thompson - OM
Evans > Lee - State +
You could argue the 4th between Williams and Odom, but Odom is younger, higher rated and OM has had a look at both and would seem to prefer Odom.

RB: STATE
Booth > Diggs - State +
Bothwell > Taylor - State ++

TE: STATE
Traore > Wright - State

DL: OM
Womack > Hibbler - OM ++
Harris > Burroughs - OM ++
Brown and Whitson may be a push
Umanmielen > Jennings/Sylla - OM + (counting standup edge as DL)

LB: OM
Dottery > Smith - OM
Perkins > Tillman - OM ++

DBs - This one may actually be a push.
Jones > Fletcher - State
Mitchell > Williams - State +
Ryan > Lanier - OM ++
Braxton > Brumfield/Lewis - OM +
Smith > Gushiken - State +


I count 14 OM wins to 9 for State (counted WR4). I gave a + for where I thought the talent was really out of wack on one side. 13 for OM and 7 for us in my not so informed opinion. Vegas, analyst and I'd argue realist agree that they are more talented though.

[confucius say]

What have you seen to think their DL guys are way better than our DL guys?
Same question with OL? Reese was voted the best lineman in the state.

[MrCoachKlein]

What have you seen to think their DL guys are way better than our DL guys?
Same question with OL? Reese was voted the best lineman in the state.

Just going by recruit/transfer ratings, NFL scout projections and my opinion. I'm sure I got some things wrong. Putting the RGs at even makes OL a push, so we have the advantage at RB & TE. Push OL & DBs.

[Hot Rock]

I am sitting here thinking 3 wins is going to be a popular choice. I have not read anything and then you may have a lot of 4 & 5 wins.

To me, it's 3 wins or flip a coin between 4, 5 & 6. Why? If they are good enough to win 4, then they are good enough to win 6 as they play several teams that are on the same level. ASU, TN, AR, MO, OM and even Fla if it's QB is limping. Hell, you could even say 7 wins if they get to 4 but if they are just somewhat improved, then it's 3 wins as there are only 3 teams on our schedule with less talent than State until proven otherwise. Beat just of those listed above and you can get one or even 3 more.

Best odds to be right is to say 3 wins. I am not. I am going 5 wins but that's a lot of wishful thinking in it but make no mistake, I will be excited if they get on a roll.

[Hot Rock]

I am of the opinion that we will not beat ASU...i hope i'm wrong.

That being said i keep seeing people throw out that "they were a playoff team last year"...and since i have lost a large portion of my college football enthusiasm due to the NIL and portal combination and don't keep up with it like i have in the past... my question is: if they had played a full SEC schedule would they have been a playoff team?

again...i get that their roster and probably talent level is greater than ours and us winning will be an upset, but them being a playoff team out of the pac10/big12 means very little to me.

Umm, had Texas on the ropes in the playoffs so maybe or maybe not but they could be even better this year. They still got most everyone back. Lost a couple but word is they will not miss them and includes Scattaboo who was a beast last year.

[Todd4State]

Umm, had Texas on the ropes in the playoffs so maybe or maybe not but they could be even better this year. They still got most everyone back. Lost a couple but word is they will not miss them and includes Scattaboo who was a beast last year.

I don't believe for a second that they won't miss Scattaboo. That would be like saying MSU won't miss Dak in 2016.

[Todd4State]

I'm not trying to be a downer just my opinion.

Going by ourlads starters, I'd take:
QB: OM
Simmons > Shapen - OM+

OL: OM - Going out on a limb and throwing Jimothy in there.
Lewis > Pounds - State +
Jackson > Townsend - State
Townsend > Keenum - OM
Kutas > Reese - OM +
Williams > Steen/Work - OM

WR: OM
Stribling > Mosley - OM +
Harrison > Thompson - OM
Evans > Lee - State +
You could argue the 4th between Williams and Odom, but Odom is younger, higher rated and OM has had a look at both and would seem to prefer Odom.

RB: STATE
Booth > Diggs - State +
Bothwell > Taylor - State ++

TE: STATE
Traore > Wright - State

DL: OM
Womack > Hibbler - OM ++
Harris > Burroughs - OM ++
Brown and Whitson may be a push
Umanmielen > Jennings/Sylla - OM + (counting standup edge as DL)

LB: OM
Dottery > Smith - OM
Perkins > Tillman - OM ++

DBs - This one may actually be a push.
Jones > Fletcher - State
Mitchell > Williams - State +
Ryan > Lanier - OM ++
Braxton > Brumfield/Lewis - OM +
Smith > Gushiken - State +


I count 14 OM wins to 9 for State (counted WR4). I gave a + for where I thought the talent was really out of wack on one side. 13 for OM and 7 for us in my not so informed opinion. Vegas, analyst and I'd argue realist agree that they are more talented though.

How can you have Simmons over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career.

[StarkVegasSteve]

How can you have Simmons over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career.

Because like everyone else he has bought into the narrative that one good drive against UGA means Simmons is going to be the best QB OM has ever had.

[confucius say]

Just going by recruit/transfer ratings, NFL scout projections and my opinion. I'm sure I got some things wrong. Putting the RGs at even makes OL a push, so we have the advantage at RB & TE. Push OL & DBs.

I just don't see any way you have Umaneilen as way better than Jennings on the edge. The former has had two years of below average production at Nebraska.
I also don't see how you have their DT way way better (you have 2 pluses) than ours. Their DT have proven nothing.

I think both rosters are very unproven. Their schedule is weaker. We will see come thanksgiving, but just looking at rosters the gap has closed considerably unless Simmons really is as good right now as Dart was last year like they and some on here think.

[Coach34]

How can you have Simmons over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career.

Simmons looked good when he has played and has been widely talked about how the gap between him and Dart wasnt much last year. Everybody also knows Shapen wont finish the season at QB or will miss significant time depending on when he gets hurt this year.

[Bothrops]

If we're out of sync offensively after a one possession in Hattiesburg it's probably going to be cemetery gates for the season and the future.

[StarkVegasSteve]

If we're out of sync offensively after a one possession in Hattiesburg it's probably going to be cemetery gates for the season and the future.

Most of the time the first 5-10 plays are extremely scripted. I will be interested to see what we look like after like the 2nd or 3rd possession. I also have a pretty good feeling USM is going to be beyond bad on defense so I really will worry if we can't move the ball with relative ease on them for most of the ballgame, especially on the ground.

[MrCoachKlein]

Because like everyone else he has bought into the narrative that one good drive against UGA means Simmons is going to be the best QB OM has ever had.

That's quite the stretch. As for Todd saying "How can you have Simmons over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career." That's like saying how can you have Arch over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career.

I think Simmons is a better prospect and Shapen will get hurt. Shapen may indeed look better than him this year since it's the kids 1st year starting. Go on and tell me you wouldn't swap Shapen for Simmons....

I hope I'm wrong bc GTHOM.

[smootness]

That's quite the stretch. As for Todd saying "How can you have Simmons over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career." That's like saying how can you have Arch over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career.

I think Simmons is a better prospect and Shapen will get hurt. Shapen may indeed look better than him this year since it's the kids 1st year starting. Go on and tell me you wouldn't swap Shapen for Simmons....

I hope I'm wrong bc GTHOM.

What are we basing his prospect status on? Because he and Shapen were almost identical coming out of HS. #35 QB and #36 QB

[MrCoachKlein]

What are we basing his prospect status on? Because he and Shapen were almost identical coming out of HS. #35 QB and #36 QB

1 is injured every year on his last year and the other has 4 years of eligibility left. Granted KT will most likely take over, but if they are as close as #35 & #36, give me the one that can play 4x as long.

[StarkVegasSteve]

That's quite the stretch. As for Todd saying "How can you have Simmons over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career." That's like saying how can you have Arch over Shapen? Shapen has done way more in his career.

I think Simmons is a better prospect and Shapen will get hurt. Shapen may indeed look better than him this year since it's the kids 1st year starting. Go on and tell me you wouldn't swap Shapen for Simmons....

I hope I'm wrong bc GTHOM.

Give the kid that has played for 4 years. Even DJU looked good for one game and we saw how the rest of his career turned out............