Quaoarsking
12-14-2013, 04:26 PM
I present 4 possible college football playoff scenarios in addition to the actual BCS. These are my best guesses at what a committee would pick based on how they choose teams in other sports, not necessarily how I would design the brackets myself. Regular season matchups are avoided in the early rounds, just as they are in other sports. I'm assuming the Final 4 would be at neutral sites, no matter the size of the tournament, and earlier playoff games at the site of the higher seed (lower division football goes home sites until final).
BCS System:
Florida State vs. Auburn
On the one hand, you have to have an outstanding regular season to get here. You can't sleepwalk for 14 weeks and then get hot and take the title. On the other hand, over half the FBS is effectively locked out of ever winning a title, and unless you play in the SEC, you essentially can't lose a game -- only two non-SEC teams (2007 Ohio State and 2008 Oklahoma) have made it in the last 10 years without being undefeated, and there was just no other choice those years. It is hotly debated whether it's a pro or con that one fluky play (like a 109-yard missed FG return) can end a otherwise great team's playoff dreams, and this system relies heavily on a team's prestige and preseason perception.
4-Team Playoff (starts after next season):
Florida State vs. Alabama
Auburn vs. Michigan State
I think Baylor deserves the nod over Michigan State, but this is how I think a committee would pick it. I definitely do NOT think they would create an Iron Bowl II matchup in the semifinals. Saturday Down South speculated they would give Michigan State the 3 seed and Alabama the 4, while I think they would say "Strength of Schedule!!" and give Auburn the 1 seed instead. Either way, I think these are the semifinal matches.
You get most of the same pros and cons as above, other than teams have a little more leeway to recover from a single loss. A 2-loss team will get in 3 or 4 times a decade rather than once in 16 years like the BCS (some people hate that, others like it). The fans get 3 awesome meaningful postseason games rather than just 1, which is the only major substantive difference in the 4-team playoff and the BCS.
8-Team Playoff:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_14_12_13_3_30_54.png
They may or may not give autobids to conference champions. This year, the 5 power conference champions would make it either way, but that's not always the case. If they decided to give autobids to the 5 major conference champions and the best mid-major, replace Central Florida as the 8 seed. Otherwise, I think South Carolina nabs the final spot over Missouri and Stanford due to SOS and their head-to-head win over Mizzou.
This is my favorite system, since you would still have to have a great regular season to make the playoff; if they did no autobids or did something like "take the 4 [or 5] best conference champions, regardless of their conference," it would be pretty rare for a 3-loss team to ever make the bracket. Fans would get 7 awesome games without really affecting the regular season. Teams outside the 5 major conferences would have a chance, but they would still have to be good to make it (probably just 2008 Utah, 2009-10 TCU, and maybe Boise once). If they decided to automatically take the 5 power conference champions, you would see 3-loss teams make it some (or 5-loss, in the case of 2012 Wisconsin), but it would make every conference regular season and championship game really exciting.
16-Team Playoff:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_14_12_13_3_34_16.png
A 16-team playoff means all 10 conference champions get in, along with 6 at larges. I think Oklahoma, with their win over Oklahoma State would get the last slot, beating out Clemson, who has nothing impressive on their resume, and Arizona State who has a great SOS but 3 losses.
This is Dan Wetzel's proposal from the excellent Death to the BCS. It would be the most similar to other sports in which every team can begin the season knowing it has a shot if it can win its conference championship. You'd get some bad teams like ULL and Rice in, but you can also look at them as a reward to Auburn and FSU for a great regular season -- they get a warmup game against scrubs to start the playoff, while similarly-talented teams like South Carolina and Oregon who let up a couple times and lost have much tougher roads to get to the national championship game. And it would mean 15 games for the fans, although probably only 11 or 12 of them would be great. Having said all that, if Rice or Bowling Green pulled off a first-round upset, they would become America's darling and drum up a lot of interest. 16 seeds may never win a game, but 13/14 seeds would win a couple times per decade.
FCS 24-Team Playoff:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_14_12_13_3_57_08.png
Far-fetched, but this is the same system used by the FCS -- 10 autobids and 14 at larges. I am betting the committee would want to reward teams like Louisville and Northern Illinois, who only lost once, rather than give bids to 4-loss SEC teams, but it's anyone's guess.
This is probably too many teams, but if the NCAA took over the administration of the playoff, they might choose this system. It would be a lot of great games for fans to watch. Yes, it would be kinda lame if LSU won the national championship after their regular season, but the odds of that are virtually nil -- no team would win in Stillwater, win in Tallahassee, win in Columbus/Columbia and then beat Alabama and Auburn at neutral sites in 5 consecutive weeks. And if somehow LSU did it, no one would begrudge them the title. It would transform the regular season, though, into jockeying for favorable seeding, for better or worse.
BCS System:
Florida State vs. Auburn
On the one hand, you have to have an outstanding regular season to get here. You can't sleepwalk for 14 weeks and then get hot and take the title. On the other hand, over half the FBS is effectively locked out of ever winning a title, and unless you play in the SEC, you essentially can't lose a game -- only two non-SEC teams (2007 Ohio State and 2008 Oklahoma) have made it in the last 10 years without being undefeated, and there was just no other choice those years. It is hotly debated whether it's a pro or con that one fluky play (like a 109-yard missed FG return) can end a otherwise great team's playoff dreams, and this system relies heavily on a team's prestige and preseason perception.
4-Team Playoff (starts after next season):
Florida State vs. Alabama
Auburn vs. Michigan State
I think Baylor deserves the nod over Michigan State, but this is how I think a committee would pick it. I definitely do NOT think they would create an Iron Bowl II matchup in the semifinals. Saturday Down South speculated they would give Michigan State the 3 seed and Alabama the 4, while I think they would say "Strength of Schedule!!" and give Auburn the 1 seed instead. Either way, I think these are the semifinal matches.
You get most of the same pros and cons as above, other than teams have a little more leeway to recover from a single loss. A 2-loss team will get in 3 or 4 times a decade rather than once in 16 years like the BCS (some people hate that, others like it). The fans get 3 awesome meaningful postseason games rather than just 1, which is the only major substantive difference in the 4-team playoff and the BCS.
8-Team Playoff:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_14_12_13_3_30_54.png
They may or may not give autobids to conference champions. This year, the 5 power conference champions would make it either way, but that's not always the case. If they decided to give autobids to the 5 major conference champions and the best mid-major, replace Central Florida as the 8 seed. Otherwise, I think South Carolina nabs the final spot over Missouri and Stanford due to SOS and their head-to-head win over Mizzou.
This is my favorite system, since you would still have to have a great regular season to make the playoff; if they did no autobids or did something like "take the 4 [or 5] best conference champions, regardless of their conference," it would be pretty rare for a 3-loss team to ever make the bracket. Fans would get 7 awesome games without really affecting the regular season. Teams outside the 5 major conferences would have a chance, but they would still have to be good to make it (probably just 2008 Utah, 2009-10 TCU, and maybe Boise once). If they decided to automatically take the 5 power conference champions, you would see 3-loss teams make it some (or 5-loss, in the case of 2012 Wisconsin), but it would make every conference regular season and championship game really exciting.
16-Team Playoff:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_14_12_13_3_34_16.png
A 16-team playoff means all 10 conference champions get in, along with 6 at larges. I think Oklahoma, with their win over Oklahoma State would get the last slot, beating out Clemson, who has nothing impressive on their resume, and Arizona State who has a great SOS but 3 losses.
This is Dan Wetzel's proposal from the excellent Death to the BCS. It would be the most similar to other sports in which every team can begin the season knowing it has a shot if it can win its conference championship. You'd get some bad teams like ULL and Rice in, but you can also look at them as a reward to Auburn and FSU for a great regular season -- they get a warmup game against scrubs to start the playoff, while similarly-talented teams like South Carolina and Oregon who let up a couple times and lost have much tougher roads to get to the national championship game. And it would mean 15 games for the fans, although probably only 11 or 12 of them would be great. Having said all that, if Rice or Bowling Green pulled off a first-round upset, they would become America's darling and drum up a lot of interest. 16 seeds may never win a game, but 13/14 seeds would win a couple times per decade.
FCS 24-Team Playoff:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/35_14_12_13_3_57_08.png
Far-fetched, but this is the same system used by the FCS -- 10 autobids and 14 at larges. I am betting the committee would want to reward teams like Louisville and Northern Illinois, who only lost once, rather than give bids to 4-loss SEC teams, but it's anyone's guess.
This is probably too many teams, but if the NCAA took over the administration of the playoff, they might choose this system. It would be a lot of great games for fans to watch. Yes, it would be kinda lame if LSU won the national championship after their regular season, but the odds of that are virtually nil -- no team would win in Stillwater, win in Tallahassee, win in Columbus/Columbia and then beat Alabama and Auburn at neutral sites in 5 consecutive weeks. And if somehow LSU did it, no one would begrudge them the title. It would transform the regular season, though, into jockeying for favorable seeding, for better or worse.