Lemonis Survives- For Now

[Todd4State]

Biggest week of Lemonis's career if he wants to keep his job and Karson Ligon comes up with the game of his life at a really good time. We needed to beat Memphis on the road and win at least 2/3 and we did it. Getting down to it, this week is just as big if not bigger. Really need to beat UAB on the road which won't be that easy and their RPI isn't great at 101. They've beaten Auburn twice and played very competitively against Alabama in a loss. The good news for MSU is we didn't have to pitch McPherson, Dotson, or Williams meaning they will almost certainly pitch Tuesday. I fully expect to start Noah Sullivan again. Then we go to Alabama and really need a series win- but 1/3 should be enough for Lemonis to keep his head above water- barely. And what I am referring to when I say head above water I'm talking about a chance to finish out the year and get into a regional. There is a path but with our RPI at 52 as I type this it's a narrow path. I think we're going to have to win at least 15 to have a chance. And we don't have a ton of high RPI games to make a leap- Alabama is one of those few. A series win there plus a win against UAB could vault us into the RPI 30's potentially. The only other high RPI games we have are the Governor's Cup and Ole Miss and Auburn. That's it. The rest of the schedule is RPI 37 or lower.


Pitching this week went pretty well or about as well as we could hope for. I think they have found the right combination of starters/relief pitchers to use FINALLY. Pico wasn't sharp this weekend but he always gives us a chance. Ben Davis gutted it out and saved the bullpen and the defense didn't help him out very much. Those innings he ate allowed us to have a chance to win the series. Siary was good but we left him in too long. We need to understand that he is only going to go 4-5 at the most every weekend and then go to the bullpen we have which is strong. Hungate and Stone Simmons were really good this weekend. Stone was really good against Memphis as well. He is starting to emerge as our relief ace. McPherson was really strong against UAB and we need to see more of that against UAB which I am almost certain he is going to pitch against them.

Joe Powell is only hitting .200 but as a first responder Lemonis might be the next guy he saves. His double was the key hit of the series and he might be taking over at catcher now going forward. Hines is above .300! Needs to keep that up. And he's even hitting clean up now. Sanders is taking over second base. Defense is strong and his .469 OBP will play. Cupp had a rough day defensively but he also had some good with the bad including his first career home run. I think he is really starting to come into his own at the plate but needs to put it all together with fielding too. Reese had some big home runs and I think he will have a big second half of the season.

LF is still a mystery. Stallman played well this weekend. I liked putting Frei out there although it didn't have the bang for the buck that I was hoping to see. Downs will still get opportunities as well. Chance broke out of his slump and had some good AB's. Stevens has been quietly productive and had a good game Saturday. Didn't have a hit Sunday but did have a RBI. Noah Sullivan I think is really emerging now. He's up to 7 home runs and is our best hitter.

So, good weekend but at the same time the loss on Friday was a game that we gave away and probably should have won. And because of that you still feel like there is a little meat left on the bone with this team. The other thing about this team is because of the lack of quality wins there isn't much margin for error. And that's scary in a sport where a bad weekend can rear it's head at anytime. There is a possibility that this team could do what it needs to do and gets hot and wins say 15 SEC games and still could get left out. We'll see how it plays out with a tough week ahead.

[MoreCowbell]

Anything short of a Super appearance he is done. I think last weekend was the turning point for people on the fence, people whos opinion matters. And mainly because the fans have come to point that no matter what he pulls out of his ass this year to finish, everyone realizes now he was far down the list of reasons we won a national championship and at his core will never be able to get us to the level we want to be.

[Todd4State]

Anything short of a Super appearance he is done. I think last weekend was the turning point for people on the fence, people whos opinion matters. And mainly because the fans have come to point that no matter what he pulls out of his ass this year to finish, everyone realizes now he was far down the list of reasons we won a national championship and at his core will never be able to get us to the level we want to be.

I agree. But I don't think it's quite over yet. He has more work to do to get to stay and is far from out of the woods.

With six weeks left in the season I do think the odds of him finishing the season improved though.

[Pancho]

groundhog day each season then.

[confucius say]

We have 18 sec games left.
Half are against top 15 rpi.
Six are against top 10 rpi.
And 15 are against top 45 rpi.

14-16 will get us in as long as we don't lose noncon games

[DownwardDawg]

We have 18 sec games left.
Half are against top 15 rpi.
Six are against top 10 rpi.
And 15 are against top 45 rpi.

14-16 will get us in as long as we don't lose noncon games

And that should get him fired.

[Todd4State]

And that should get him fired.

The caveat is we have to see how the team performs if they get into the postseason at all.

If they make a SR I'm sure he will be back.

Less than that all bets are off.

[MStateDawg]

Downs will still get opportunities as well.

But why? He's hitting .053 vs SEC pitching. He's been awful. In Friday's loss, Lemonis benched Nolan Stevens (hitting over .300 vs SEC pitching) and instead played downs in RF. Downs goes 0-4 and we lose. The next day Stevens returns to the lineup and gets on base in all 4 plate appearances (2 hits and 2 walks). Stevens has to play in RF EVERY game. He hits good and he's a plus defender. In LF you can rotate Frei & Stallman. Downs has shown absolutely nothing against legitimate competition to justify him him continually getting starts at any of the OF spots.

https://hailstate.com/sports/baseball/roster/downsaaron/12064

[PGHBulldogBG]

We very well may win the Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri series to get us to 11 wins. That means we can't be swept, lose any non conference games and take 1 from Bama and Auburn just to get to 13 wins. That is going to be extremely tough to do all of that. Just getting to 13 wins will be a major struggle and that won't guarantee us in the tournament. Lemo needs a miracle and to figure out a way to sweep UF which even though they are down he has a horrible record against Sully.

[KB21]

IMO, they have to take 2 out of 3 against Alabama. It's not just about doing enough to get into the regionals. They have to start showing that they can beat good teams. They have to start showing that they can make the play that is needed to be made when the game is in the balance. I think going 1 out of 3 vs Alabama almost cinches Lemonis's fate.

[Coach34]

We make a Super? He is 100% back. Firing him wont even be discussed.

If you watch- this team likes each other. We dont seem to have any issues of bad attitudes and such. That helps as we try to navigate these last 6 weeks.

Game by game we will ride it out

[Coach34]

IMO, they have to take 2 out of 3 against Alabama. It's not just about doing enough to get into the regionals. They have to start showing that they can beat good teams. They have to start showing that they can make the play that is needed to be made when the game is in the balance. I think going 1 out of 3 vs Alabama almost cinches Lemonis's fate.

I agree with this. We need to take 2/3. Losing this series wont officially end it- but it will be damn close.

[TNDawg35]

No chance we get in the tourney with 13 conference wins with our RPI. Our best non-conference win is Southern Miss. I think we will have to get to at least 14 wins and that's going to be a struggle.

[DownwardDawg]

The caveat is we have to see how the team performs if they get into the postseason at all.

If they make a SR I'm sure he will be back.

Less than that all bets are off.

True. I was just thinking about if we squeak into a Regional instead of hosting. Then not make it out.
Our expectations are to host regionals and Super Regionals.

[HoopsDawg]

No chance we get in the tourney with 13 conference wins with our RPI. Our best non-conference win is Southern Miss. I think we will have to get to at least 14 wins and that's going to be a struggle.

Lemonis's poor non conf scheduling coming back to haunt him and us.

[Coach34]

But why? He's hitting .053 vs SEC pitching. He's been awful. In Friday's loss, Lemonis benched Nolan Stevens (hitting over .300 vs SEC pitching) and instead played downs in RF. Downs goes 0-4 and we lose. The next day Stevens returns to the lineup and gets on base in all 4 plate appearances (2 hits and 2 walks). Stevens has to play in RF EVERY game. He hits good and he's a plus defender. In LF you can rotate Frei & Stallman. Downs has shown absolutely nothing against legitimate competition to justify him him continually getting starts at any of the OF spots.

https://hailstate.com/sports/baseball/roster/downsaaron/12064

A) Downs had a little bad luck in that 0-4- he absolutely crushed a ground ball that the 3rd baseman got lucky in snagging to turn a DP.

B) But I 100% agree that Stevens should never sit. Downs/Stallman should be a platoon situation. Frei is a better hitter from the left side so having him bat RH'ed doesnt really do us any good.

[DawgFromOxford]

Lemonis's poor non conf scheduling coming back to haunt him and us.

The non conf schedule was fine. Problem was we just didn?t beat any non con team with a pulse other than going 1-1 with Southern Miss.

[MStateDawg]

A) Downs had a little bad luck in that 0-4- he absolutely crushed a ground ball that the 3rd baseman got lucky in snagging to turn a DP.

Has he had bad luck for 4 years? Because that's how long he's been here and he's done virtually nothing versus SEC pitching:

Conference stats only:
2022: .154 (2 for 13 with 0 RBIs)
2023: .077 (1 for 13 with 0 RBIs)
2024: .259 (14 for 54 with 5 RBIs)
2025: .053 (1 for 19 with 1 RBI)

Career: .181 (18 for 99 with 6 RBIs)

He's fine for depth on a 40 man roster and being an occasional pinch hitter, but he has no business starting in critical games over legitimate SEC players.

[Coach34]

The non conf schedule was fine. Problem was we just didn?t beat any non con team with a pulse other than going 1-1 with Southern Miss.

This. Troy is still Top 25. So are the Nasty Bunch and Arizona

We have to win games and the RPI will take care of itself.

[KB21]

Has he had bad luck for 4 years? Because that's how long he's been here and he's done virtually nothing versus SEC pitching:

Conference stats only:
2022: .154 (2 for 13 with 0 RBIs)
2023: .077 (1 for 13 with 0 RBIs)
2024: .259 (14 for 54 with 5 RBIs)
2025: .053 (1 for 19 with 1 RBI)

Career: .181 (18 for 99 with 6 RBIs)

He's fine for depth on a 40 man roster and being an occasional pinch hitter, but he has no business starting in critical games over legitimate SEC players.

I'm inclined to agree with this. Downs has gone from hitting the ball really well to not even making quality contact when he does make contact. Whereas Reed Stallman tags the ball every single time he makes contact, and Reed has a better eye at the plate. He's going to get on base more. Stallman and Stevens should not sit going forward.

[Coach34]

Has he had bad luck for 4 years? Because that's how long he's been here and he's done virtually nothing versus SEC pitching:

Conference stats only:
2022: .154 (2 for 13 with 0 RBIs)
2023: .077 (1 for 13 with 0 RBIs)
2024: .259 (14 for 54 with 5 RBIs)
2025: .053 (1 for 19 with 1 RBI)

Career: .181 (18 for 99 with 6 RBIs)

He's fine for depth on a 40 man roster and being an occasional pinch hitter, but he has no business starting in critical games over legitimate SEC players.

So you're saying the only time he got a steady amount of AB's against SEC pitching he hit .260? Ok. Trout is 12/48 against SEC pitching for a .250 average but we let him hit every game

[Coach34]

I'm inclined to agree with this. Downs has gone from hitting the ball really well to not even making quality contact when he does make contact. Whereas Reed Stallman tags the ball every single time he makes contact, and Reed has a better eye at the plate. He's going to get on base more. Stallman and Stevens should not sit going forward.

Stallman is 5/27 against SEC pitching. .185

[Coach34]

Lemonis's poor non conf scheduling coming back to haunt him and us.

Q4 games by school:

UPig 17-1
Georgia 14-0
Texas 10-0
Tennessee 13-0
LSU 19-1
Mississippi 10-0
Candy 10-0
Bama 13-1
Auburn 9-2
Oklahoma 13-0
Florida 13-0
Kentucky 9-2
SC 14-0
State 12-0

[KB21]

Stallman is 5/27 against SEC pitching. .185

He's also had a lot of bad luck with a .235 BABIP. While I don't have access to his exit velocity data from Trackman, it's obvious that he hits the ball hard. When his BABIP has positive regression, his counting stats will improve dramatically.

[Coach34]

I agree he needs to play- I'm just saying platooning them is probably the best road forward

[Todd4State]

Lemonis's poor non conf scheduling coming back to haunt him and us.

Lemonis having pitcher tryouts against Troy and Arizona are what is haunting us.

[Coach34]

SEC SOS for 2025:

UPig- 31
Georgia- 40
Texas- 28
Tenn- 60
LSU- 101
Mississippi- 16
Candy- 14
Bama- 42
Auburn- 11
Oklahoma- 44
Florida- 8
Kentucky- 49
SC- 12
State- 38

[StarkVegasSteve]

Lemonis having pitcher tryouts against Troy and Arizona are what is haunting us.

That and two blown leads against Texas, 5 errors against OU, a blown lead in Game 1 against LSU, and not being able to hit in Game 2 against LSU. Oh and then errors against South Carolina that cost us a sweep.

[Coach34]

Lemonis having pitcher tryouts against Troy and Arizona are what is haunting us.

We are 1-11 vs Q1

That is our problem

[MStateDawg]

Trout is 12/48 against SEC pitching for a .250 average but we let him hit every game

I'm not a big fan of his either but I don't know that we really have a better option for CF. We definitely have better options than Downs starting over Stevens.

[BravesDoggy]

And that should get him fired.

Why? Cholk 2 only exceeded 14 league wins 2 times in 8 years.

Lemons has 2 of the 3 twenty SEC win seasons in the last 35 seasons.

[MStateDawg]

That and two blown leads against Texas, 5 errors against OU, a blown lead in Game 1 against LSU, and not being able to hit in Game 2 against LSU. Oh and then errors against South Carolina that cost us a sweep.

There's unfortunately been a lot of swing games in the SEC slate, none of which have gone our way.

Texas Series:
Game 1: Had a 2 run leading going into the 7th, lost by 1
Game 2: Tied going into the 7th (final inning), lost by 2
Game 3: Down by 1 going into the 7th (final inning), lost by 3

Oklahoma Series:
Game 2: Gave up 6 earned runs and lost 13-11. (Barf)

LSU Series:
Game 2: Pico throws a gem and we lose 2-1


We've had some incredibly frustrating loses thus far.

[KB21]

There's unfortunately been a lot of swing games in the SEC slate, none of which have gone our way.

Texas Series:
Game 1: Had a 2 run leading going into the 7th, lost by 1
Game 2: Tied going into the 7th (final inning), lost by 2
Game 3: Down by 1 going into the 7th (final inning), lost by 3

Oklahoma Series:
Game 2: Gave up 6 earned runs and lost 13-11. (Barf)

LSU Series:
Game 2: Pico throws a gem and we lose 2-1


We've had some incredibly frustrating loses thus far.

Plus, the things we do or don't do that have cost us in those games have been consistent over the past four years. Whether it is a base running error, not being able to field the ball or make the throw when the game is in the balance, giving away at bats, or leaving a pitcher in too long, these have been consistent issues over the past four years.

[Coach34]

I'm not a big fan of his either but I don't know that we really have a better option for CF. We definitely have better options than Downs starting over Stevens.

Reeves was mentioned as a possibility there. He has shown to be a solid bat. Get him some work and time there

[KOdawg1]

In a sport where bad teams beat good teams all the time, we've struggled to beat good teams.

Our problem isn't losing the Texas or LSU series. It's getting swept. Take 1 game in each of those series and we're 5-7 right now and the outlook on this season is completely different.

[QuadrupleOption]

There's unfortunately been a lot of swing games in the SEC slate, none of which have gone our way.

Texas Series:
Game 1: Had a 2 run leading going into the 7th, lost by 1
Game 2: Tied going into the 7th (final inning), lost by 2
Game 3: Down by 1 going into the 7th (final inning), lost by 3

Oklahoma Series:
Game 2: Gave up 6 earned runs and lost 13-11. (Barf)

LSU Series:
Game 2: Pico throws a gem and we lose 2-1


We've had some incredibly frustrating loses thus far.

The hallmark of poorly coached teams, IMO. Same issues we had last year, when you could make the exact same post about MANY SEC games. Yet we found a way to lose all of them, either through lack of bullpen production, lack of timely hitting with RISP, or bad fielding.

Same sh!t, different year. Losing to every team with a pulse and limping into an NCAA Regional to get bounced in the Sunday game isn't going to cut it.

[HoopsDawg]

SEC SOS for 2025:

UPig- 31
Georgia- 40
Texas- 28
Tenn- 60
LSU- 101
Mississippi- 16
Candy- 14
Bama- 42
Auburn- 11
Oklahoma- 44
Florida- 8
Kentucky- 49
SC- 12
State- 38

That's going to plummet the next month.

[DawgFromOxford]

Plus, the things we do or don't do that have cost us in those games have been consistent over the past four years. Whether it is a base running error, not being able to field the ball or make the throw when the game is in the balance, giving away at bats, or leaving a pitcher in too long, these have been consistent issues over the past four years.

Which is why it?s time for Lemonis to go. We?re lacking consistency in every area. When we pitch well we don?t hit well. When we hit well we don?t pitch well. When we pitch and hit well we give up runs on errors. This team rarely puts a complete game together. And there?s nothing that tells me future Lemonis teams are going to be any different.

[Schultzy]

Gotta sweep somebody to get back in it mathematically.

[Coach34]

Gotta sweep somebody to get back in it mathematically.

Get to 12-15 at the end and sweep Mizzou we are easily in. Need to position ourselves to where if we lose a game to Mizzou it doesnt cut our throat

[confucius say]

Mizzou may be the worst sec team this century.
If we lose to them, we deserve nothing.

[Tbonewannabe]

Get to 12-15 at the end and sweep Mizzou we are easily in. Need to position ourselves to where if we lose a game to Mizzou it doesnt cut our throat

Mizzou would be a horrible loss, maybe Q3 loss by the time we play them. We would probably need to win every series to offset a Mizzou loss.

[Coach34]

Mizzou may be the worst sec team this century.
If we lose to them, we deserve nothing.

This is baseball. They are going to beat someone most likely. 0-30 is doubtful. Just hope it aint us

[confucius say]

This is baseball. They are going to beat someone most likely. 0-30 is doubtful. Just hope it aint us

I wonder what the worst sec record this century is. I don't remember an 0-30. Maybe 4-26.

[BrunswickDawg]

I wonder what the worst sec record this century is. I don't remember an 0-30. Maybe 4-26.

We were 6-24 in 2010.
Ole Miss was 6-24 in '23
Mizzou was 6-24 in '14
UK was 6-24 in '02
Vandy was 5-24 in '00
Bama was 5-24-1 in 2017
UGA was 5-23 in '10

Lowest I can find is 4-22 by Bama in 1994

[confucius say]

Mizzou about to break a record.

[EdwardDrayton]

Mizzou about to break a record.

Awww, now look what you gone and done did. :)

[sandjunky]

Guarantees a sweep! State goes 15-15

[Dawgface]

Guarantees a sweep! State goes 15-15

That would be one of the best comebacks of our time. ��

[Pancho]

mercy percy

[StarkVegasSteve]

Guarantees a sweep! State goes 15-15

That would keep Lemonis? job safe. A 12-6 conference finish, after starting 3-9, would put us comfortably in with an outside shot at hosting.

[parabrave]

That would keep Lemonis? job safe. A 12-6 conference finish, after starting 3-9, would put us comfortably in with an outside shot at hosting.

or he can pull a 22 om. Barely make a regional get hot and win it all.

[Tbonewannabe]

or he can pull a 22 om. Barely make a regional get hot and win it all.

I am 100% ok with that. OM also had maybe the weakest CWS group ever.