Most likely gonna be 8/9-seed

[msstate7]

Here's the 3-pt shooting % for the 7 thru 10-seeds on Bracketmatrix...

BYU 37.8%
Mizzou (won't be them - thank God)
Kansas 35.2%
Marquette 32.8%
Gonzaga 34.4%
Memphis 38.8%
UConn 35.4%
Creighton 34.4%
New Mexico 34.8%
Georgia (won't be them)
Utah st 37.1%
Baylor 35.1%
Ark (won't be them)
Vandy (won't be them)
West Virginia 32.6%

This is just one stat, but it seems to be a big one for us this season.

When you consider mizzou is almost certainly above the 8-line, it gives me a little hope bc we're 3-1 (and the 1 was almost a win) against the lines 8 and below. Hopefully we can win 1.

[msstate7]

Using 35% team 3-pt in sec, we're 0-8 (0-9 if you count tourney) vs sec above it and 8-2 (9-2 if you count tourney vs teams below. Seems to be a big correlation. Using this, and this alone, I want Marquette

[StarkVegasSteve]

Using 35% team 3-pt in sec, we're 0-8 (0-9 if you count tourney) vs sec above it and 8-2 (9-2 if you count tourney). Seems to be a big correlation. Using this, and this alone, I want Marquette

I don't want any part of Shaka Smart in the NCAAT. Also, they're relentless defensively. You give Shaka 4-5 days to gameplan and Hubbard may not touch the ball. These are the teams I'd prefer from most likely could win to we'll get beat by double digits:

1. West Virginia
2. Baylor
3. Kansas
4. New Mexico
5. Marquette
6. Utah St
7. Creighton
8. Gonzaga
9. Memphis
10. BYU










4352352345. UCONN


If we've got to be a 8/9 you would rather be the 8. The good news is that I think UCONN is going play their way on to the 7 line so we won't have to deal with them. I think Mizzou and BYU move up to the 6 line, St. Mary's will bump down to the 7 line, Kansas will move down to the 8, and Creighton might jump to an 8. I also think Memphis probably stays at 8. I don't think we'll get them though because the tournament usually doesn't like rematches in the first round.

[basedog]

It is a new season, yes, I know you can't change stats as they are what they are. But the Ncaa is a different feel, let's hope we win game one in the new season and don't look back now. Btw, I'm not sure I would play Kugel, he seems to have a chip on his shoulder, I just think he is not a good team player, maybe I am wrong. But our team chemistry is the worse of our faults in my opinion.

[StarkVegasSteve]

It is a new season, yes, I know you can't change stats as they are what they are. But the Ncaa is a different feel, let's hope we win game one in the new season and don't look back now. Btw, I'm not sure I would play Kugel, he seems to have a chip on his shoulder, I just think he is not a good team player, maybe I am wrong. But our team chemistry is the worse of our faults in my opinion.

You have to play him. The upside is just too big. He's got the ability. I know people don't see it, and a lot of that is they don't want to. They just want to run the kid down. But he's the most NBA type player on our team. Does he get in his own head, absolutely. But he makes plays. Hell he had 3 steals last night. He also only had one 1 TO. No he didn't shoot the ball well but no one did. Harris and Melendez were a combined 1-10. I just don't get the constant need to run down Kugel. No one runs down Melendez or Harris. They do the same stuff. Also, if you take him out you're having to play Jones and Harris extended minutes. They both are foul prone and you can't rely on foul prone players in the tournament.

[basedog]

You have to play him. The upside is just too big. He's got the ability. I know people don't see it, and a lot of that is they don't want to. They just want to run the kid down. But he's the most NBA type player on our team. Does he get in his own head, absolutely. But he makes plays. Hell he had 3 steals last night. He also only had one 1 TO. No he didn't shoot the ball well but no one did. Harris and Melendez were a combined 1-10. I just don't get the constant need to run down Kugel. No one runs down Melendez or Harris. They do the same stuff. Also, if you take him out you're having to play Jones and Harris extended minutes. They both are foul prone and you can't rely on foul prone players in the tournament.

It's what I see, JMO, as an ex coach his role would be much different. He is far from our best NBA potential, team chemistry is important. He dribbles way too much, plays too much one on one.

[StarkVegasSteve]

It's what I see, JMO, as an ex coach his role would be much different. He is far from our best NBA potential, team chemistry is important. He dribbles way too much, plays too much one on one.

He's basically our only NBA potential. Melendez has some sneaky potential. Murphy could get there, but I doubt it. This isn't the NBA of the 80s, 90s, or even 00s. Ball dominant guards run the league and that's what he is. No one gives a rip about defense so Matthews has none, Hubbard is too short and out of position, Nwoko can't shoot outside of 6 ft so he's not going anywhere, Harris is too streaky and needs to be about 3 inches taller, and for Jones just see Matthews.

That's the NBA potential of our team. If this was 1981, then Matthews would be a 1st round pick along with Murphy, Melendez, and Kugel. Those 4 play good defense and can make enough shots.

[Goldendawg]

Using 35% team 3-pt in sec, we're 0-8 (0-9 if you count tourney) vs sec above it and 8-2 (9-2 if you count tourney vs teams below. Seems to be a big correlation. Using this, and this alone, I want Marquette

Yeah, but we double in the post on "defense"!*****

[RezDog7]

Murphy is not near aggressive enough.

[Goldendawg]

It is a new season, yes, I know you can't change stats as they are what they are. But the Ncaa is a different feel, let's hope we win game one in the new season and don't look back now. Btw, I'm not sure I would play Kugel, he seems to have a chip on his shoulder, I just think he is not a good team player, maybe I am wrong. But our team chemistry is the worse of our faults in my opinion.

He was about 0 for 7 from the field and doesn't give the ball back after given to him at all. (Note: I wonder if some of these guys are tired of seeing our volume shooter take so many shots, 34% last season, and probably similar this season, whether he is hot or cold.).

[basedog]

He was about 0 for 7 from the field and doesn't give the ball back after given to him at all. (Note: I wonder if some of these guys are tired of seeing our volume shooter take so many shots, 34% last season, and probably similar this season, whether he is hot or cold.).

I agree. again team chemistry sucks. Gott find shooters that is the bottom line.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I agree. again team chemistry sucks. Gott find shooters that is the bottom line.

BINGO. Our guys that we brought in to make shots have to hit shots. Our team chemistry is fine though. The players are more adept to handle this area than the fans. These kids all played on AAU teams that were cobbled together with guys from all over and most played on 2-3 AAU teams a year.

[MoreCowbell]

He's basically our only NBA potential. Melendez has some sneaky potential. Murphy could get there, but I doubt it. This isn't the NBA of the 80s, 90s, or even 00s. Ball dominant guards run the league and that's what he is. No one gives a rip about defense so Matthews has none, Hubbard is too short and out of position, Nwoko can't shoot outside of 6 ft so he's not going anywhere, Harris is too streaky and needs to be about 3 inches taller, and for Jones just see Matthews.

That's the NBA potential of our team. If this was 1981, then Matthews would be a 1st round pick along with Murphy, Melendez, and Kugel. Those 4 play good defense and can make enough shots.

Murphy is most NBA potential not really a debate

[PGHBulldogBG]

West Virginia and Marquette would be the best options if we want to win our first game and I think we could beat them. UConn, BYU, Utah State or Kansas would be bad match ups and probably Mizzou type game all over again. New Mexico or Creighton would be 50/50. Not sure about Baylor or Gonzaga they both significantly underachieved this year.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Murphy is most NBA potential not really a debate

He's got the size, but he's just not there mentally or with the nuances of the game. Far too often he tries some finesse move from 3 ft and misses or loses the ball instead of just dunking the damn thing and taking a foul if he has to. That's got to be the next phase of his game. I just don't know that it'll come here. He's going to test the NBA waters.

[StarkVegasSteve]

West Virginia and Marquette would be the best options if we want to win our first game and I think we could beat them. UConn, BYU, Utah State or Kansas would be bad match ups and probably Mizzou type game all over again. New Mexico or Creighton would be 50/50. Not sure about Baylor or Gonzaga they both significantly underachieved this year.

We'd be fine against Kansas or Utah St. Probably be fine against Baylor too. New Mexico would definitely be 50/50. I want no part of Creighton, UCONN, or Gonzaga. Creighton has Kalkbrenner inside who would torture Murphy and Nwoko. UCONN is UCONN. They have size and speed, but have had a couple of injuries and puzzling losses. Seem to be putting it together now. Dan Hurley has only lost once in March in the past 3 years. And Gonzaga could be Michigan State from last year all over again. An experienced tourney coach with a team who underachieved, you could probably say that about Kansas too but they are just lost. They want the season to be over.

[LC Dawg]

You have to play him. The upside is just too big. He's got the ability. I know people don't see it, and a lot of that is they don't want to. They just want to run the kid down. But he's the most NBA type player on our team. Does he get in his own head, absolutely. But he makes plays. Hell he had 3 steals last night. He also only had one 1 TO. No he didn't shoot the ball well but no one did. Harris and Melendez were a combined 1-10. I just don't get the constant need to run down Kugel. No one runs down Melendez or Harris. They do the same stuff. Also, if you take him out you're having to play Jones and Harris extended minutes. They both are foul prone and you can't rely on foul prone players in the tournament.

I get frustrated with Kugel but a lot of people think he doesn't care or he doesn't try or play hard because sometimes his body language is not great. I think that is a result of him getting down on himself when things don't go well. I'll give him credit for continuing to play hard last night when his shot wasn't falling (and by not falling I mean not even touching the rim).
I think a lot of the frustration with fans and with himself is that everyone, including Jans, knows the ability is there.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I get frustrated with Kugel but a lot of people think he doesn't care or he doesn't try or play hard because sometimes his body language is not great. I think that is a result of him getting down on himself when things don't go well. I'll give him credit for continuing to play hard last night when his shot wasn't falling (and by not falling I mean not even touching the rim).
I think a lot of the frustration with fans and with himself is that everyone, including Jans, knows the ability is there.

I've just never understood the doesn't care or doesn't try. He's probably our second best on ball defender. I just have never understood the hate he gets. It's a little like Lamar Peters. Lamar was constantly hated on and called out. That never made any sense either.

[basedog]

I've just never understood the doesn't care or doesn't try. He's probably our second best on ball defender. I just have never understood the hate he gets. It's a little like Lamar Peters. Lamar was constantly hated on and called out. That never made any sense either.

First off, I don't hate any player. Second, not sure where u are getting "we don't have bad team chemistry", but we do. There is so much one on one, and yes there has been a few jealous players.
It's prettt common regardless of sports where players are made are upset with someone playing ahead of them or they are t satisfied with the minutes they are playing.
It's very common, I've seen as an athlete and coach. Hell it happens in politics and work places with jealousy.

I am a Jans fan big time, but he has to do better in the portal and recruiting. I'm done debating and I hope we make some NCAA noise!!!

[R2Dawg]

Murphy is most NBA potential not really a debate

Yep, Murphy is only one that will sniff an NBA shot. Get his outside shot going and he could make a roster. Long, skilled and athletic. Add in an outside face up shot and he is there.

No one else is even close.

Hub increases his % and range he might get a look. No one thought Curry would have the career he's had.

[Coach34]

Some thoughts:

1. Yes Kugel is frustrating but he is talented. As SVS said- his problem is in his head. That is what is holding him back
2. Hubbard changing his game this season has really elevated him. He's become a complete offensive player this season as opposed to a volume shooter from 3.
3. Jones has really improved as the season has went on. More than just an athletic defender
4. Murphy is likely going to be a 2nd round draft pick. He does need to come back and get tougher around the rim but wont surprise if he doesnt
5. Harris and Melendez have been inconsistently disappointing. One thing you hope vets bring is consistentcy. They do not
6. Our tournament hopes depend squarely on the match-up. We need to win a game. Facing a 1 or 2 seed in Round 2 will be the end of our season tho.

[Tater]

I don't want any part of Shaka Smart in the NCAAT. Also, they're relentless defensively. You give Shaka 4-5 days to gameplan and Hubbard may not touch the ball. These are the teams I'd prefer from most likely could win to we'll get beat by double digits:

1. West Virginia
2. Baylor
3. Kansas
4. New Mexico
5. Marquette
6. Utah St
7. Creighton
8. Gonzaga
9. Memphis
10. BYU










4352352345. UCONN


If we've got to be a 8/9 you would rather be the 8. The good news is that I think UCONN is going play their way on to the 7 line so we won't have to deal with them. I think Mizzou and BYU move up to the 6 line, St. Mary's will bump down to the 7 line, Kansas will move down to the 8, and Creighton might jump to an 8. I also think Memphis probably stays at 8. I don't think we'll get them though because the tournament usually doesn't like rematches in the first round.

Chris Jans is the last coach to beat UConn in the tournament.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Chris Jans is the last coach to beat UConn in the tournament.

And you better believe Dan Hurley remembers that. All his assts have told Jans he talks about that loss than the two national championships. That's not rumors either. Jans told that story on a podcast back in December.

[EdwardDrayton]

I've just never understood the doesn't care or doesn't try. He's probably our second best on ball defender. I just have never understood the hate he gets. It's a little like Lamar Peters. Lamar was constantly hated on and called out. That never made any sense either.

I think it's what LC said; some folks judge based on the on court body language. That is just not a sound way to know what goes on in a player's head.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I think it's what LC said; some folks judge based on the on court body language. That is just not a sound way to know what goes on in a player's head.

It's not. And I get that. But this is high level major college basketball. This isn't Upward. We're not trying to find guys to win the Most Christlike star to sow on their undershirt. Body language doesn't mean crap. Kobe Bryant had god awful body language. But it was because he wanted to rip your heart out and stomp on it. Michael had terrible body language for the same reason. Wanting to win sometimes means you look pissed when things don't go right.

[NCMSTFAN]

Some thoughts:

1. Yes Kugel is frustrating but he is talented. As SVS said- his problem is in his head. That is what is holding him back
2. Hubbard changing his game this season has really elevated him. He's become a complete offensive player this season as opposed to a volume shooter from 3.
3. Jones has really improved as the season has went on. More than just an athletic defender
4. Murphy is likely going to be a 2nd round draft pick. He does need to come back and get tougher around the rim but wont surprise if he doesnt
5. Harris and Melendez have been inconsistently disappointing. One thing you hope vets bring is consistentcy. They do not
6. Our tournament hopes depend squarely on the match-up. We need to win a game. Facing a 1 or 2 seed in Round 2 will be the end of our season tho.

Good post, I agree with all of this

[msu15]

Need to advance or this season will go down as a failure.

[LC Dawg]

It's not. And I get that. But this is high level major college basketball. This isn't Upward. We're not trying to find guys to win the Most Christlike star to sow on their undershirt. Body language doesn't mean crap. Kobe Bryant had god awful body language. But it was because he wanted to rip your heart out and stomp on it. Michael had terrible body language for the same reason. Wanting to win sometimes means you look pissed when things don't go right.

I think people misinterpret Kugel being upset with himself as him not caring or trying. I didn't think he wasn't trying but he would go into a funk sometimes when things weren't going well. I sometimes wondered if Kugel didn't handle Jans coaching intensity but I think Jans has done well with Kugel. Earlier in the season if his shots weren't falling he would let it affect other aspects of his game but that hasn't been the case lately. Jans would really ride him when he had defensive lapses but Kugel has responded well to that.