EliteDawgs Official Christmas Forecast:

[TheRef]

Okay...So the GFS is indicating a cold front coming through about midnight on the 21st. This will drop temperatures from the 60s to the upper teens. The upper half of MS will be below freezing until about halfway through Christmas Eve. The lowest will be around the 22nd or 23rd of December. It's a little too early to know if we will get any wintery precip through this cold snap. I wouldn't put it past us to have some snow or ice. Keep in mind, this is only one model's interpretation of the data and this is 220+ hours out. Things WILL change from this forecast but I figured I would go ahead and put this out there. I'm sure slick can give the ECMWF's interpretation of this.

[starkvegasdawg]

I saw on the NWS forecast discussion a mention of possible severe weather next weekend. Their mention of high SRH is what made me read it twice. Your thoughts on any possible severe weather?

[TheRef]

I saw on the NWS forecast discussion a mention of possible severe weather next weekend. Their mention of high SRH is what made me read it twice. Your thoughts on any possible severe weather?

With a 40+ degree temperature difference between pre-front and post-front temps means that there is a very real possibility of severe wx. The only thing is that you're going to need a LOT of instability with such low temps. So the questions will be moisture content and instability of the layer.

[K9 Avenger]

LOVE the forecasting... thanks to you, and others that contribute, for doing this.

[Harrydawg]

Same here, thanks for doing this....I have a question about this severely cold weather the week of Christmas....I will be in New York City that week, what does the weather look like up there?

[TheRef]

Same here, thanks for doing this....I have a question about this severely cold weather the week of Christmas....I will be in New York City that week, what does the weather look like up there?

NYC looks cold as well. Temperatures look to be below freezing all week.

[hoopdawg92]

Bump for an update...local forecasts have 70's for later this week!

[TheRef]

NAM doesn't quite push out far enough for me to see very well. GFS, however, has pushed everything back a couple of days. Everything could start getting chilly around Monday or Tuesday. Which means we could have a very cold Christmas Eve and Day. When this system pushes through, there will be some rain associated with it since we won't drop below freezing I don't see us getting snow/sleet with this system.

[Ronny]

..but the Liberty Bowl is simply too far away to make an accurate weather forecast.

This time of year weather in the Deep South turns on a dime.

And even the best meteorologist can't make accurate predictions.

I say Christmas day will be when you start to formulate a relatively accurate forecast for Dec. 31st.

[TheRef]

..but the Liberty Bowl is simply too far away to make an accurate weather forecast.

This time of year weather in the Deep South turns on a dime.

And even the best meteorologist can't make accurate predictions.

I say Christmas day will be when you start to formulate a relatively accurate forecast for Dec. 31st.

I never was trying to forecast for NYE or NYD. I don't know who you are referring to but I wasn't even close to making a forecast for that time period.

[ScoobaDawg]

Ronny is drunk. Ref appreciate it. I follow storm2k closely and another former weatherman who left to go back to school to teach. Sadly the MSU weather grad in dallas just loved to have his face in front of the camera and not a big fan of him.

I've been following both areas (dallas and Mississippi/Alabama) as i'll be making the drive over to the sip on Sunday and having to drive back on the 26th.

[Ronny]

I never was trying to forecast for NYE or NYD. I don't know who you are referring to but I wasn't even close to making a forecast for that time period.

...what you are doing.

You are warning that Christmas may be cold?

It takes a real meteorological trailblazer to come up with that one.

I thought you concentrated on game day forecasts.

The fact you do not means I will be ignoring your bullcrap in the future.

BTW I am not drunk. I think the ref is the drunk one here.

[Pollodawg]

Somebody needs some midol.

[bully99]

Ref, it just proves the limitations of forecasting weather. A week ago many weather websites were predicting artic outbreak and record cold for second half of December, now they're talking about record warmth for this weekend and severe weather. You guys do a good job, but beyond a few days, it's just not real reliable.

[Belegal]

Dark tonight - probably turning light towards morning.

[SignalToNoise]

...what you are doing.

You are warning that Christmas may be cold?

It takes a real meteorological trailblazer to come up with that one.

I thought you concentrated on game day forecasts.

The fact you do not means I will be ignoring your bullcrap in the future.

BTW I am not drunk. I think the ref is the drunk one here.

Judging from the thread title, he was offering an early forecast for Christmas day.

What the **** is your problem? Heavy flow this time of month?

[PMDawg]

...what you are doing.

You are warning that Christmas may be cold?

It takes a real meteorological trailblazer to come up with that one.

I thought you concentrated on game day forecasts.

The fact you do not means I will be ignoring your bullcrap in the future.

BTW I am not drunk. I think the ref is the drunk one here.

Moronic asshole gon' moronic asshole.

[FISHDAWG]

Ronny has a heavy flow every day ...... thanks guys, the rest of us get it

[TheRef]

Ref, it just proves the limitations of forecasting weather. A week ago many weather websites were predicting artic outbreak and record cold for second half of December, now they're talking about record warmth for this weekend and severe weather. You guys do a good job, but beyond a few days, it's just not real reliable.

That's very true. The only really reliable forecast that you can have is at most 3 days. Anything past that is, as a retired professor who taught me said, magic. Now most of you understand that when reading my forecasts that are long range. Truth is, we don't have many things that go far enough in the future to give a good long-range forecast. In fact, there is only one forecast model that is free to the public that goes out beyond 4 days (GFS) and the other, which is better (ECMWF), is a pay-for-use model and not available publicly. Therefore, I'm kinda limited on what I can use to forecast when I don't pay for it. Now if some of you would like to criticize my forecast and provide your own forecast then I greatly appreciate it and welcome it. Ronny, did you date a meteorologist that dumped you on air or something? Or do you just like to yell at a meteorologist when we get a forecast wrong. We know we're wrong sometimes, but why don't you try to guess what an ever-changing atmosphere will do at any given moment when we have a VERY limited observation network that's flawed in and of itself. /rant

[Barking 13]

Ref, you're cool.... I like to use my weather rock***

[TheRef]

Ref, you're cool.... I like to use my weather rock***

But seriously, the weather rock never lies.

[CJDAWG85]

So much hositility... Just go have a coke and a smile.

[donald igwebuike]

But seriously, the weather rock never lies.

for the next 2-3 weeks.

Hope its not 84/84 or 87/88

[TheRef]

for the next 2-3 weeks.

Hope its not 84/84 or 87/88

To be honest with you, I have no idea what you're talking about.

ETA: Just did a google search on it and I understand what it is now. The analog year process is very similar to the strict climatology process. However, you try to use the exact observations in order to predict what will happen due to what has happened in the past. This, however, is only really good for everyday situations and for maybe a very unique situation that has happened once before. For unusual events that don't have any analogs, it will be quite difficult. NWP Models take into account more things than just a similar situation.