5 remaining games, ranked toughest to easiest, % of W

[klong-dog]

@ Oklahoma

@ Alabama

(H) LSU

(H) Texas

@ Arkansas


1. @ Alabama 25%
2. @ Arkansas 55%
3. @ Oklahoma 60%
4. Texas 78%
5. LSU 82%

[msstate7]

3-2, and we good.

[Coach34]

I predicted 10-8. Would love it for us to get there

[R2Dawg]

I predicted 10-8. Would love it for us to get there

It will be disappointing if we don't finish 10-8 with our remaining schedule.

[PGHBulldogBG]

I am thinking 10-8 with wins over LSU, Texas and Arkansas.

[CaptainObvious]

Frankly, I'll be disappointed if State doesn't win all 5!😳

[LC Dawg]

10-8 is very attainable and in this league is a really good record. I think we'll have enough Q1 wins for the committee to ignore the Butler loss.

[cheewgumm]

11 - 7

Bama only

Optimist

[CaptainObvious]

If we had a true post player offensively and defensively, no telling what this season could be!

[R2Dawg]

11 - 7

Bama only

Optimist

Me too or we get Bama and lose one we shouldn't - at Ark

[BeardoMSU]

11 - 7

Bama only

Optimist

Yaaass

[Count Istvan Teleky]

Yaaass

After the way they are getting handled tonight ... who knows?

[Pancho]

mizzou has a deep bench full of 3 point snipers

[1996]

10-8 is very attainable and in this league is a really good record. I think we'll have enough Q1 wins for the committee to ignore the Butler loss.

Ignore it?meaning what?

[Hot Rock]

Mizzou is one of those teams that when they are hitting threes, they can beat the shit out of you. Live by 3 die by 3.

Plus, that is biggest weakness. Per T&L, when holding opponents to less than 10 made 3's we win.. If not, it's unlikely we get a win.

It's why I don't know what to wish. A 5-12 matchup could be the worst matchup as that's usually a good shooting mid-major. 6-11 usually is a P5 with flaws and can be good matchups for us.

Having said that, I want to win every damn game we can. I love winning.

[confucius say]

If we had a true post player offensively and defensively, no telling what this season could be!

Murphy is a true post player. Especially offensively. He's very good with his back to the basket and can face up within 12-15 feet as good as anybody in the league not named Broome

[Walkerhill]

We need to be thinking about the second game instead of the first. If you are a 6 you almost always will play a legit top 10 team to make the sweet 16, probably at a regional pod that favors them. As a 4/5 you get a second tier team and have more likelihood of playing on a favorable or neutral court.

To me, losing in the second round is no better than the first. No one remembers who teams 16-32 were. You make the sweet 16 you get a signature program achievement and you get a week of press heading into second weekend.

[sleepy dawg]

We need to be thinking about the second game instead of the first. If you are a 6 you almost always will play a legit top 10 team to make the sweet 16, probably at a regional pod that favors them. As a 4/5 you get a second tier team and have more likelihood of playing on a favorable or neutral court.

To me, losing in the second round is no better than the first. No one remembers who teams 16-32 were. You make the sweet 16 you get a signature program achievement and you get a week of press heading into second weekend.

To me winning a game in the tournament is a hell of a lot better than winning no games in the tournament. I could care less what other people remember. I care about what the experience is like for me and getting to play 2 tournament games would be great. Sweet 16 is obviously better, but 0 wins and 1 win are not equivalent.

Here's some fun stats. From 2012-2022 (last 10 years not counting last year... I don't have those stats added in yet.) 6 seeds beat 11 seeds only 47.5% of the time. 5s beat 12s 57.5% of the time. both 5s and 6s lose a lot of 1st round games, but 6's have performed pretty bad in recent history. 5 seeds beat 4 seeds only 33.3% of the time. 6 seeds beat 3 seeds only 18.8% of the time. So you're right, that a 6 seed is going to have a very tough road, 5 seeds are pretty tough too. Here's the fun part though... 7 seeds have beaten beat 10 seeds 61.5% of the time and they have beaten 2 seeds 42.9% of the time. It's very strange, but 7 seeds have greatly outperformed 6s and 5s in the first and second round while playing what should be tougher seeds in both rounds. Take that as you will.

[R2Dawg]

After the way they are getting handled tonight ... who knows?

Mizzou might be 2nd best team in SEC. They had a slow start but they are dominating everyone they play now. Hate to see them in my bracket in March.

[R2Dawg]

Murphy is a true post player. Especially offensively. He's very good with his back to the basket and can face up within 12-15 feet as good as anybody in the league not named Broome

He is more skilled than Broome to me and has more upside at next level. His quickness and explosiveness with the ball is NBA ready.

[StarkVegasSteve]

To me winning a game in the tournament is a hell of a lot better than winning no games in the tournament. I could care less what other people remember. I care about what the experience is like for me and getting to play 2 tournament games would be great. Sweet 16 is obviously better, but 0 wins and 1 win are not equivalent.

Here's some fun stats. From 2012-2022 (last 10 years not counting last year... I don't have those stats added in yet.) 6 seeds beat 11 seeds only 47.5% of the time. 5s beat 12s 57.5% of the time. both 5s and 6s lose a lot of 1st round games, but 6's have performed pretty bad in recent history. 5 seeds beat 4 seeds only 33.3% of the time. 6 seeds beat 3 seeds only 18.8% of the time. So you're right, that a 6 seed is going to have a very tough road, 5 seeds are pretty tough too. Here's the fun part though... 7 seeds have beaten beat 10 seeds 61.5% of the time and they have beaten 2 seeds 42.9% of the time. It's very strange, but 7 seeds have greatly outperformed 6s and 5s in the first and second round while playing what should be tougher seeds in both rounds. Take that as you will.

Same. Get in and win a game and then let's reevaluate. That's the next step in our progression under Chris. We made the play in his first year, made the regular field his second, and now it's time to win a game.

[Coach34]

Its been 30 years since we have made the 2nd weekend of the Tourney.
We havent won an NCAA Tourney game in 17 years

Let's win a game and celebrate that. Anything past that is gravy at this point.

[MoreCowbell]

We will lose at Bama and at Ark on senior night with tourney appearance on line for them. Ark much better team than a month ago. 3-2, finish 10-8. Will be a 6 seed.

[klong-dog]

We will lose at Bama and at Ark on senior night with tourney appearance on line for them. Ark much better team than a month ago. 3-2, finish 10-8. Will be a 6 seed.

plus you have to add the Calipari affect.

[Pancho]

can he actually coach in the clutch last few minutes when he doesn't have better overall talent?

[StarkVegasSteve]

We will lose at Bama and at Ark on senior night with tourney appearance on line for them. Ark much better team than a month ago. 3-2, finish 10-8. Will be a 6 seed.

That would be incredible. You avoid the 1 seed as long as possible, get a 3 seed that you probably are better than talent wise in the second round, and let the chips fall where they may after that.

[AROB44]

can he actually coach in the clutch last few minutes when he doesn't have better overall talent?

You're not talking about Jans, are you? If you are, you have to be either kidding or on something.

[basedog]

I think many don't understand our history in Basketball, overall not so hot and Jans has taken to the Ncaa hopefully for the third year in a row.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I think many don't understand our history in Basketball, overall not so hot and Jans has taken to the Ncaa hopefully for the third year in a row.

Outside of about a 6 year run in the late 50s-early 60s, Richard's two year run in 95 and 96, and Rick's run from 02-05, our basketball history is nothing. For far too long, we had fans hanging on to meaningless Western Division Championships acting like we did something. I mean we were winning those when 3 of the 6 teams in the division didn't care in a given year.

I mean Jans has been here 2.5 years and is already 8th all time in wins and his .635 winning percentage is better than anyone except Earl Hayes and Ron Greene, who left us for Murray St. My how college basketball times have changed.

[SpaceBully]

9-9...........lose to BAMA & ARKY

[LC Dawg]

What I would like to see:

- Finish with a top 8 seed for the SEC Tournament
- Win a game in the tournament
- Get some rest before NCAA tournament

[ArrowDawg]

Outside of about a 6 year run in the late 50s-early 60s, Richard's two year run in 95 and 96, and Rick's run from 02-05, our basketball history is nothing. For far too long, we had fans hanging on to meaningless Western Division Championships acting like we did something. I mean we were winning those when 3 of the 6 teams in the division didn't care in a given year.

I mean Jans has been here 2.5 years and is already 8th all time in wins and his .635 winning percentage is better than anyone except Earl Hayes and Ron Greene, who left us for Murray St. My how college basketball times have changed.

I agree with all of that, and we should absolutely do everything we can to hold on to Jans. With that said, it'd be nice to actually win a tournament game. Getting there is great, but it WILL get old just only getting there and never winning anything.

[MoreCowbell]

Dropping 4 spots to 24 in the AP after a top 10 win and 6 point road loss hurts. Very well could be out completely even with a win vs LSU and loss at Bama

[PGHBulldogBG]

Lunardi has us a 7 seed right now and I wish his bracket would hold true. Getting SDSU, Houston and Wisconsin would be about the best path we could ask for because those are all defensive oriented teams. We do not want to go up against any top SEC team besides Tennessee and want to avoid Duke, Louisville, etc basically teams that are real athletic and shoot well from 3.

[Pancho]

ouch

[StarkVegasSteve]

Lunardi has us a 7 seed right now and I wish his bracket would hold true. Getting SDSU, Houston and Wisconsin would be about the best path we could ask for because those are all defensive oriented teams. We do not want to go up against any top SEC team besides Tennessee and want to avoid Duke, Louisville, etc basically teams that are real athletic and shoot well from 3.

I want to avoid Bama, Florida, and Auburn. I don't even think Duke would give us just a ton of problems. Tell Cam, Shawn, and Keshawn they have 5 fouls a piece and there's Cooper Flagg. Jordan Rules him.


Here's the thing about Bama, Florida, and Auburn. Maybe outside of Auburn, they all have a flaw. Bama has to be hitting or they are toast. Florida is about 25 pts better on average home than they are away. Doesn't bode well for the tourney. For Auburn, the one thing I know about them is that they will have a scare in the first or second round. They always do. Under Pearl, they're average margin of victory in Rd. 1 is 6 and that's with a 19 point win over Jax State. Take that out and it's 3. They've also only advanced out of the first weekend once, the year they went to the F4. The other years: 31 point loss to Clemson, 18 point loss to Miami, 17 point loss to Houston all in the second round. And then the loss to Yale last year by 2 in the first round.

Basically, let's get there and let's the chips fall where they may. Crazy things happen every year.

[parabrave]

Lunardi has us a 7 seed right now and I wish his bracket would hold true. Getting SDSU, Houston and Wisconsin would be about the best path we could ask for because those are all defensive oriented teams. We do not want to go up against any top SEC team besides Tennessee and want to avoid Duke, Louisville, etc basically teams that are real athletic and shoot well from 3.

Hadad said that he has us as a solid 7 and thats no matter what happens the rest of the season/