Props to Bo Bounds this morning

[ShotgunDawg]

Bo gets it.

It appears as though our state is slowly getting smarter about football (at least MSU fans). Instead of having a meathead outlook on recruiting and just worrying about recruiting rankings, our state is beginning to understand population movements, how the 25 signee rule effects the talent pool, more kids playing football, more high schools, etc.... and on and on and on.

The difference between a 3 and 4 star recruit is meaningless. The talent level between these two players is so close that it's irrelevant. The success or failure of these players comes down to 1. Development 2. University fit 3. Schematic fit 4. Depth chart 5. Intangibles

Therefore, recruiting class that are made up of most of these types of players (about 8-35 or 40 in the recruiting rankings) will have very similar talent on the field.

We are entering into a new era of college football. The talent pool has grown to the point where the top 40 or so football schools in the country, especially those in the South, are all getting good football players and can beat anyone on any given day.

Parity is coming and the gap is closing. 10-20 year from now, don't be surprised when MSU and Bama are fielding the same talent levels on the field.

This type of stuff scares the crap out of school and teams that just rely on out-recruiting teams, buying players, and don't focus on player development. The boosters are about to lose control over having a major effect on college football. The more talent there is out there, and the more it becomes about player development and coaching, the less power the boosters will have to effect the outcome. They'll be left powerless in acquiring talent.

It's about evaluation and will become more so as we move forward.

I recommend that everyone listen to Bo Bounds' interview of Tom Luginbill this morning. At some point today he'll post it on his website.

[Goat Holder]

I'm starting to think the 'winning' is much simpler than even that. I think if you put the right in charge, it's just a matter of time before he's winning. Look around, it happens all over the country. It takes longer at places like MSU than it takes at places like Alabama, but still. Pay the right coach, and you win.

I still think Mullen is the right guy too. First of all, he won with another guy's players. And the talent has increased since he's been here. The players are slowly but surely developing the big time 'look' of a good football team. Take Arkansas for example, and the difference between their 2011 and 2012 teams. The only real difference was the head coach, but the players all had a different 'look'.

[smootness]

I actually think the talent pool will decrease over the next 10-20 years as fewer and fewer parents allow their kids to play football.

I will say, though, that I think this will happen in more affluent areas first, so the SEC may gain an even greater advantage on the rest of the country.

[Goat Holder]

I will say, though, that I think this will happen in more affluent areas first, so the SEC may gain an even greater advantage on the rest of the country.

That's already happened. Where have you been?

[smootness]

That's already happened. Where have you been?

I said even greater. Obviously the SEC has an advantage on the rest of the country. I'm saying I expect that to grow even more.

[ShotgunDawg]

I actually think the talent pool will decrease over the next 10-20 years as fewer and fewer parents allow their kids to play football.

I will say, though, that I think this will happen in more affluent areas first, so the SEC may gain an even greater advantage on the rest of the country.

This could happen, but if the population continues to boom, there will still be more kids playing football. The percentage% of kids playing football may go down, but the overall numbers will likely continue to rise.

Plus, as technology continues to progress, I expect they'll get much of this injury stuff figured out. For example, while the targeting penalty needs to be tweeked, I saw far less helmet to helmet hits this year. I actually think this rule will be better for the game in the long run.

[Big4Dawg]

http://www.thezone1059.com/page.php?page_id=81

[messageboardsuperhero]

I actually think the talent pool will decrease over the next 10-20 years as fewer and fewer parents allow their kids to play football.

I will say, though, that I think this will happen in more affluent areas first, so the SEC may gain an even greater advantage on the rest of the country.

Maybe there will be a smaller percentage of the population playing football, but the population will continue to grow. There will still probably be a greater total amount of people playing football in 10-20 years than there is today- especially in the south.

[smootness]

This could happen, but if the population continues to boom, there will still be more kids playing football. The percentage% of kids playing football may go down, but the overall numbers will likely continue to rise.

Plus, as technology continues to progress, I expect they'll get much of this injury stuff figured out. For example, while the targeting penalty needs to be tweeked, I saw far less helmet to helmet hits this year. I actually think this rule will be better for the game in the long run.

I don't think technology can really solve the problem. Fewer helmet-to-helmet hits is better than more, but I don't think this is going to drastically reduce the head/concussion issues. I expect that in several years, they'll do some more studies that show that CTE is basically still as prevelant as it ever was. They are obviously being smarter about how they treat concussions and in keeping players off the field longer (and though it stinks for him, it's a good sign that Jahvid Best's career is now basically over b/c of too many concussions), but the bottom line is that when playing a sport like football, your brain will constantly be slamming against your skull, and when that happens repeatedly, it is bad for you.

You can't take that away from football. Just falling down on the ground over and over leads to this, especially if you're hitting your head on the ground or having it whip around. There's just no avoiding it. And obviously parents have already started pulling their kids out of football.

It wouldn't shock me if in 30 years or so, football was essentially gone.

ETA: The population argument is a good one, but I still think we're going to see the percentage come down far enough that it actually will reduce the overall pool.

[Bullmutt]

I don't know that we're actually seeing more concussions now than in years past, but it certainly appears that most of those we see are of greater severity. There would seem to be little way of avoiding this when we now have 275 lb. players who are capable of running as fast as the 200 lb. players of thirty years ago, and they just keep getting bigger, stronger and faster. When they collide, cumulative damage is going to be done. I realize that a top notch strength and conditioning program is a must if a school is going to be able to compete, but a part of me wonders whether these programs are not a major contributor to this concussion phenomenon. Hopefully, helmet/cushioning/pad technology can be improved enough in the future to at least partially alleviate some of this.

[smootness]

I agree with you. And I have no doubt technology will continue to improve, but there's really no way to keep the brain from crashing into the skull when you're hit that hard, no matter what you're wearing. You can protect bones and ligaments and muscles, but you can't really protect what happens to organs inside the body.

Steroids have also played a role in addition to that of strength programs. There's no doubt that most of these players aren't simply lifting more weights than they used to.

[CadaverDawg]

The targeting rule will make people's lives better POST-football....but all it will do is shorten careers due to more knees getting blown out.

No targeting rule = Longer career but potential mental problems later in life.
Targeting rule = Shorter careers but less long term damage

Most players would say they would rather get a concussion than to have their ACL blown out.

[Bullmutt]

Agree, CD. It won't be until they're 40+ and looking back that they'll recognize the fallacy of that line of thinking.

[CadaverDawg]

Agree, CD. It won't be until they're 40+ and looking back that they'll recognize the fallacy of that line of thinking.

Yep. Many think the risk is worth the reward, and "it won't happen to me" when it comes to long term mental issues. And it may not. But the league has to cover it's' own ass, so I understand why they make the rule. If all those players hadn't sued, this would be a non issue, so they only have themselves to blame. They knew they were going to get smashed in the head repeatedly playing pro football.

I saw a stat where ACL injuries in the NFL have grown every single season over the last 3-4 years at a significant rate. The NFL is in a tough spot, because you can't make the hit zone from the thigh pads to the chest...but you also can't allow this targeting rule to shorten players' careers even more than they already are with constant knee injuries. Glad I'm not making the decisions on these rules.

[Bothrops]

This could happen, but if the population continues to boom, there will still be more kids playing football. The percentage% of kids playing football may go down, but the overall numbers will likely continue to rise.

Plus, as technology continues to progress, I expect they'll get much of this injury stuff figured out. For example, while the targeting penalty needs to be tweeked, I saw far less helmet to helmet hits this year. I actually think this rule will be better for the game in the long run.

Some day a safer helmet will be designed, but it won't look anything like what's currently being used. Alien football may be coming.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Some day a safer helmet will be designed, but it won't look anything like what's currently being used. Alien football may be coming.

CAVS is actually working on this project with a Dr from Meridian and I believe Virginia Tech. Unfortunately, players like RK are more concerned about how their helmet looks than protecting whats inside the helmet. Well, I doubt There is a whole lot that needs protecting inside RK's helmet.

[Bo Darville]

One thing that has changed in high school football is the amount of hitting that is done in practice. When I played in high school, we hit full contact on Mondays and Tuesdays. It was common to practice for 3 hours with 90 minutes of scrimmage. I was 2nd string tailback in 10th grade and would easily get 80-90 carries in two days. All full contact and full tackling to the ground. They don't do things that way now. Coaches are smarter. Schemes have developed to spread out the offenses and defenses, I think you see less contact. However, the spreading of the field can cause more severe contact such as the targeting type shots. And they drink water now during practices. Coaches were stupid then.

[Negative Waves]

I think one of the next steps will be weight classes for positions in football. 270 max for lineman, 210 max for running backs, etc. When I watch football replays from games in the 80's, the players were just as tall, but they were much leaner. With all the muscle and weight they put on now, it's a wonder that any of the players walk off the field at the end of their careers.

[Coach34]

I think one of the next steps will be weight classes for positions in football. 270 max for lineman, 210 max for running backs, etc. When I watch football replays from games in the 80's, the players were just as tall, but they were much leaner. With all the muscle and weight they put on now, it's a wonder that any of the players walk off the field at the end of their careers.

You guys have touched on all this- but it comes down to this:

Players are still getting bigger, faster, and stronger. No helmet can protect the brain slamming into the skull from various types of hits. That's the bottom line. The athleticism and the collisions from these BSF players cant possibly be legislated out of the game. For example- I saw a player this past weekend go up high and make a good grab, DB tackled him in mid-air- nothing illegal, but then his head hit the ground hard and caused a concussion. It's just part of the game now because these guys run faster, jump higher, and weigh more than they used to. They train year around instead of working other jobs in the offseason.

Football is too popular to go away- but waivers and warnings to its danger will begin to be part of the business.

[smootness]

They crazy thing is, we haven't even seen all the effects of the 'faster, bigger, stronger' players yet. Obviously players have gradually been getting bigger and more athletic, but it's really been in the last couple of decades that we've seen monsters flying all over the field, and a lot of these studies have been on players either before that or just in the early stages of it.

Even back when guys were smaller, not as fast, and the collisions weren't as violent, the effects were not good. We could see a higher and higher % of these retired players dealing with catastrophic issues soon.

I can promise you it isn't too popular to go away, because fans aren't the ones making these decisions. There's nothing you can do if you look up and all the sudden the player pool is much smaller. Sure, there will be waivers and warnings, but how many parents are going to sign a waiver that says, 'Playing football can/does cause long-term mental damage that can result in early death, depression, and the loss of ability to function normally in society. I understand the risk I am imposing on my child'?

When someone like Troy Aikman says he wouldn't let his son play football, you know the impact will be pretty severe.

I would bet that one of the next things you see is a big movement to essentially eliminate football before a certain age because they will argue that children can't understand the effects playing football could have on them long-term.

Plus, there will always be other options...baseball, basketball, soccer, and on and on.

[FlabLoser]

I think one of the next steps will be weight classes for positions in football. 270 max for lineman, 210 max for running backs, etc. When I watch football replays from games in the 80's, the players were just as tall, but they were much leaner. With all the muscle and weight they put on now, it's a wonder that any of the players walk off the field at the end of their careers.

Most other contact sports have weight classes. So I agree with Waves on this one.

[fishwater99]

They crazy thing is, we haven't even seen all the effects of the 'faster, bigger, stronger' players yet. Obviously players have gradually been getting bigger and more athletic, but it's really been in the last couple of decades that we've seen monsters flying all over the field, and a lot of these studies have been on players either before that or just in the early stages of it.

Even back when guys were smaller, not as fast, and the collisions weren't as violent, the effects were not good. We could see a higher and higher % of these retired players dealing with catastrophic issues soon.

I can promise you it isn't too popular to go away, because fans aren't the ones making these decisions. There's nothing you can do if you look up and all the sudden the player pool is much smaller. Sure, there will be waivers and warnings, but how many parents are going to sign a waiver that says, 'Playing football can/does cause long-term mental damage that can result in early death, depression, and the loss of ability to function normally in society. I understand the risk I am imposing on my child'?

When someone like Troy Aikman says he wouldn't let his son play football, you know the impact will be pretty severe.

I would bet that one of the next things you see is a big movement to essentially eliminate football before a certain age because they will argue that children can't understand the effects playing football could have on them long-term.

Plus, there will always be other options...baseball, basketball, soccer, and on and on.

I think Junior High should be the start of contact football. Play flag before then..