Hurricane Milton Thread

[TheRef]

Alright everyone in the main part of Florida. Shift your eyes towards the Yucatan towards Hurricane Milton, your next enemy. Freshly a category 5 Hurricane and expected to make landfall Thursday night at 7:00 PM near Tampa Bay. Storm Surge expected to be 8-12 feet in that area as well. May drop to as low as a Cat 3 by landfall, but will still carry plenty of danger with it. Start making preparations now and I imagine there will be evac orders made soon.

Latest images from NHC

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142024_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/152801_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142024_peak_surge+png/152801_peak_surge.png

[TheRef]

Wind speeds now up to 175 MPH. Strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane since 2005 (Rita).

[BrunswickDawg]

Ah, the joys of the Coastal Lifestyle.

Still recovering from Helene here in SE Georgia. We activated our city IRT this morning and started a discussion of known needs based on our flood incidents from Irma in '17 - which saw a 3-4 foot storm surge and TS force winds.

The real concern is resource availability. South Georgia (south of Macon to Valdosta, and most communities east to the coast) are all reeling right now. GA Power is out of utility poles. Some small towns are projected to be out of power for 3 more weeks.
GEMA and FEMA resources are focused on their recovery. The good news is that most of those areas look in the clear. The bad news is, Glynn, Camden, and a couple of neighboring counties aren't clear. So throwing Milton and his giant red stapler at us right now isn't fun. Oh, and we have King Tides this week, and with winds blowing off the water there will be no outlet for waters to even at low tide.

I should have known not to plan on heading to Athens for the game this weekend....

[HoopsDawg]

Wind speeds now up to 175 MPH. Strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane since 2005 (Rita).

Pls keep us updated. I have expected travel in the area on Friday

[Ranchdawg]

Growing up in Pass Christian, Ms. was a kid in hurricane Camille and Katrina in central Ms. I truly feel bad for these people in the Tampa/St. Pete and the whole south central Fl. I hate these monster storms. Katrina literally took away most everything that I knew from my childhood. My grandmother’s house and store building (we no longer owned) two blocks off the beach. That storm hurt so many people and damaged so much.

In New Orleans after Katrina people called FEMA Fix Everything My Ass!

[DownwardDawg]

Pls keep us updated. I have expected travel in the area on Friday

You won't be traveling to the Tampa area on Friday.

[TheRef]

Yeah Tampa Bay will not be open for travel Friday if the path remains the same.

[JNC23]

Supposed to head toward the Destin Area Thursday. Those that are educated on models and projections - is Destin included in the areas that should take caution?

[Furlow]

Headed to Tybee Island tomorrow. Decided not to go to football game in Athens. Hope we can miss the weather.

[BrunswickDawg]

Headed to Tybee Island tomorrow. Decided not to go to football game in Athens. Hope we can miss the weather.

Should mostly miss Tybee

[starkvegasdawg]

Air Force recon has measured sub 900mb pressure and winds above the surface over 200mph. The eye is about the size of a Prius.

[RocketDawg]

Air Force recon has measured sub 900mb pressure and winds above the surface over 200mph. The eye is about the size of a Prius.

Didn't Camille have gusts about 220 mph? This could be another Katrina from a storm surge standpoint, even though the winds are expected to drop quite a bit (as I recall, Katrina's weakening to a Cat 3 was not expected).

[Gutter Cobreh]

https://x.com/nbergwx/status/1843444771135861007?s=46&t=tJQ_5BDOP2-sIxnGPUicBg

[RocketDawg]

The Weather Channel is showing video of people evacuating the Tampa Bay area, heading northward on (I believe) I-275. It's bumper-to-bumper, stop and go even now, 2 or 3 days ahead of landfall. They're showing good common sense.

[confucius say]

I thought landfall was supposed to be late Wednesday? Not Thursday night.

[Activated Alpha]

I am not knowledgable on this at all, but what is keeping it from turning northward toward us?

[RocketDawg]

I thought landfall was supposed to be late Wednesday? Not Thursday night.

I believe it's actually early Thursday morning - like 1 a.m.

[schddog72]

The Weather Channel is showing video of people evacuating the Tampa Bay area, heading northward on (I believe) I-275. It's bumper-to-bumper, stop and go even now, 2 or 3 days ahead of landfall. They're showing good common sense.

Wife and I flew into Tampa yesterday (Sunday) afternoon from San Antonio, but we live in upstate South Carolina. Our car was at stepdaughter's house just south of Tampa Bay. We left at 2:30 AM (Eastern time) this morning and encountered very little traffic along I-75 North or I-4 East through Orlando, and made it through Jacksonville on I-95 and farther north to I-26 through light traffic. When daylight came, the southbound/westbound lanes were filled with utility bucket trucks and other related equipment, headed towards the Tampa area. Without counting, there were easily 300 of them. We are sooooo glad we left when we did!!

My SIL and her hubby (who had gone on to Santa Fe, NM from San Antonio) are from the Bradenton, FL area and are now stuck out there with no back anytime soon. If the storm surge goes as projected, their house will surely be flooded as they live very close to Tampa Bay itself.

My wife has other close relatives in that area. Prayers for safety of all those folks will be greatly appreciated.

[starkvegasdawg]

I am not knowledgable on this at all, but what is keeping it from turning northward toward us?

The cold front that has it feeling so good outside.

[starkvegasdawg]

Didn't Camille have gusts about 220 mph? This could be another Katrina from a storm surge standpoint, even though the winds are expected to drop quite a bit (as I recall, Katrina's weakening to a Cat 3 was not expected).

It broke all the anemometers so no one really knows.

[parabrave]

It broke all the anemometers so no one really knows.

It had sustained winds of 200 at the port of Gulfport. To this day I can still hear the shrill whistle of the wind. We lived off of St James Blvd College Park, Mississippi City/

[parabrave]

Wife and I flew into Tampa yesterday (Sunday) afternoon from San Antonio, but we live in upstate South Carolina. Our car was at stepdaughter's house just south of Tampa Bay. We left at 2:30 AM (Eastern time) this morning and encountered very little traffic along I-75 North or I-4 East through Orlando, and made it through Jacksonville on I-95 and farther north to I-26 through light traffic. When daylight came, the southbound/westbound lanes were filled with utility bucket trucks and other related equipment, headed towards the Tampa area. Without counting, there were easily 300 of them. We are sooooo glad we left when we did!!

My SIL and her hubby (who had gone on to Santa Fe, NM from San Antonio) are from the Bradenton, FL area and are now stuck out there with no back anytime soon. If the storm surge goes as projected, their house will surely be flooded as they live very close to Tampa Bay itself.

My wife has other close relatives in that area. Prayers for safety of all those folks will be greatly appreciated.

I 75 Northbound out of Tampa has been red most of the day and is still at this min. Were in the upstate do you live? I lived in Anderson for awhile years ago/

[parabrave]

Air Force recon has measured sub 900mb pressure and winds above the surface over 200mph. The eye is about the size of a Prius.

The latest AF Hunter flight

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF302-1114A-MILTON.png

[TheRef]

Milton has undergone a successful eyewall replacement cycle and is expected to strengthen to probably the peak today. Currently holds the 5th lowest pressure by any Atlantic hurricane at 897 mb (Wilma in 2005 holds the record at 885 mb).

Track holding to make landfall around Sarasota or St. Petersburg at 1:00 AM 10/10.

[DownwardDawg]

Milton has undergone a successful eyewall replacement cycle and is expected to strengthen to probably the peak today. Currently holds the 5th lowest pressure by any Atlantic hurricane at 897 mb (Wilma in 2005 holds the record at 885 mb).

Track holding to make landfall around Sarasota or St. Petersburg at 1:00 AM 10/10.

Just an incredible storm. So fascinating and destructive all at once.

[redstickdawg]

It broke all the anemometers so no one really knows.

I was in 4th grade after Camille and our school class visisted Keesler AFB several months later. The meteorologists gave us a tour and mentioned that their anemometer broke during the storm while registering ~220mph.

[parabrave]

Milton has undergone a successful eyewall replacement cycle and is expected to strengthen to probably the peak today. Currently holds the 5th lowest pressure by any Atlantic hurricane at 897 mb (Wilma in 2005 holds the record at 885 mb).

Track holding to make landfall around Sarasota or St. Petersburg at 1:00 AM 10/10.

Maybe south of Sarasota. The last 3 storms that were predicted to hit Tampa went south at the last moment, Charlie, Ian and one other I forgot the name of.

[TheRef]

So Milton has delayed the Eastward turn and as such, the track has shifted slightly south. Center of track now goes straight through Sarasota. Expected arrival of 0200 ET on 10/10.

Latest (1900 CT) wind speeds of 165 MPH and a central pressure of 902 mb.

Milton is still an extremely dangerous hurricane. Is expected to lessen to a high end Cat 3 by landfall, but will carry extremely damaging storm surge.

[DownwardDawg]

So Milton has delayed the Eastward turn and as such, the track has shifted slightly south. Center of track now goes straight through Sarasota. Expected arrival of 0200 ET on 10/10.

Latest (1900 CT) wind speeds of 165 MPH and a central pressure of 902 mb.

Milton is still an extremely dangerous hurricane. Is expected to lessen to a high end Cat 3 by landfall, but will carry extremely damaging storm surge.

It's an incredible storm.

[Pancho]

our folks relocated up to st simons for the yet to be determined future

[Dawgpile]

Supposed to head toward the Destin Area Thursday. Those that are educated on models and projections - is Destin included in the areas that should take caution?

Not sure if this helps, but we were in Gulf Shores last year when Idalia hit the big bend. The surf was high up to the dunes and hitting hard. Big plumes of spray were visible from a 1/4 mile off the beach.

[TheRef]

As of 2200 CDT, Milton sitting at 160 MPH (Cat 5), pressure at 915 mb. Track now showing between Sarasota and Venice. Still looking like overnight the morning of 10/10 for landfall.

[DownwardDawg]

As of 2200 CDT, Milton sitting at 160 MPH (Cat 5), pressure at 915 mb. Track now showing between Sarasota and Venice. Still looking like overnight the morning of 10/10 for landfall.

Devastating

[911mom]

Milton has certainly motivated many more people to evacuate than any other hurricane we have encountered in the 30 plus years we have lived in Tampa. Yes, this one ( like many previously ) was originally targeting Tampa . Can anyone explain why they seeming tend to move south when closer ?

[Brobi-wan]

Milton has certainly motivated many more people to evacuate than any other hurricane we have encountered in the 30 plus years we have lived in Tampa. Yes, this one ( like many previously ) was originally targeting Tampa . Can anyone explain why they seeming tend to move south when closer ?

Probably an Indian burial ground or the fountain of youth that Ponce de L?on was looking for somewhere under the city.

[parabrave]

Milton has certainly motivated many more people to evacuate than any other hurricane we have encountered in the 30 plus years we have lived in Tampa. Yes, this one ( like many previously ) was originally targeting Tampa . Can anyone explain why they seeming tend to move south when closer ?

SVD where are you for this one/ One of the reasons is like the ref said. Storms are usually on a predicted, forecasted, track with turns factored in. When they don't make that move then the tract is adjusted. The storm will make a move that is known but there are always "jogs" that are unforeseen. Ian and Charlie are 2 prime examples where both were forecasted to hit Tampa but both Jogged and hit the Port Charlotte and FT Myers beach areas/ Remember the best forecasting is done 2 days out thats why there is a cone.

[TheRef]

Milton has certainly motivated many more people to evacuate than any other hurricane we have encountered in the 30 plus years we have lived in Tampa. Yes, this one ( like many previously ) was originally targeting Tampa . Can anyone explain why they seeming tend to move south when closer ?

So Milton failed to make the predicted eastward turn that would have sent it closer to Tampa and St Pete. However, with the dry air zone still sitting steadily over the gulf coast, it's going to push Milton down further to a more moist and warm airmass that will give the Hurricane the best environment to thrive and build.

Right now, Milton is searching for the best environment to thrive and survive. Tropical systems depend on as little wind shear as possible, warmest water temperatures, and most PWAT (precipitable water) available. Also, Helene left a pretty substational "shadow" of cooler water in its wake which is creating the path for Milton to push further south. Even with the Gulf Stream, Milton will take the jog over and hit with devastating impact and destruction.

[TheRef]

0100 AM CDT update. Winds steady at 160 MPH, pressure at 914 mb. Conditions in Florida expected to deteriorate considerably this afternoon. Landfall expected within 24 hours now.

[TheRef]

Recon flight is ongoing right now. Pressure now down to 910 mb.

[TheRef]

Pressure steady at 910 mb from dropsonde 20 minutes after the first. So pressure is fairly stable at this point. Will continue to update as recon flight continues.

[TheRef]

Pressure now down to 909 mb.

[TheRef]

Milton Advisory 17 has been released. Track has moved back to Sarasota with landfall at 0100 10/10. Expected landfall wind speeds of 130 MPH (Low end Cat 4).

Currently sitting at 160 MPH (Category 5) with minimum pressure at 907 mb.

Buckle up for the most intense 24 hours because Milton will stay a Hurricane throughout the entirety of being over and through Florida. If you haven't evacuated yet, you won't be able to.

[TheRef]

I would be lying to you if I said I wasn't worried about the impact of this storm. While Helene was and is bad for multiple states and so many lost souls, Milton may cause more catastrophic destruction and leave a path of death in its wake. Hotels are requiring those who stay to sign a waiver of liability and have a next of kin on file. Multiple Waffle House locations are closed. Expected landfall at Category 4, which the last Cat 4 landfall was Hurricane Ian in 2022.

For those in the path, the next 48 hours will be a living hell. Survival cannot be guaranteed.

[KentuckyDawg13]

My son and nephew have a house in St. Pete where the storm surge prediction is 10-15ft. They evacuated that area and went Southeast to West Palm Beach to ride it out at their Aunt's home on the Atlantic.
Going to be an interesting 24 hrs of monitoring this.
Reminds me of my days as a youth, as my father was an Air Force Hurricane Hunter based out of Keesler AFB. Growing up on the Gulf Coast, I have ridden out many storms, ranging from Camille to Katrina.
It hits a little differently when it's your kid though.

[911mom]

Thank you so much to those who answered my question as I am truly appreciative. This thread has been truly informative and fascinating .Just to give a shout out , I have researched almost every weather broadcaster in the Tampa Bay Area. A small minority did not spend at least a portion of their education from Mississippi State University . Now those of us who live in/near path will wait and pray.

[DownwardDawg]

Thank you for all these updates. Great thread! God speed all in the path.

[TheRef]

Latest from NHC

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/324051731262603274/1293566632328691732/image0.jpg?ex=6707d74e&is=670685ce&hm=6645d8d5e639783ca77bfde7123e9ff0a5f15239e84fa00 0cee96abcf16c7a11&

[parabrave]

New Storm surge map. Just the change from being on the other side of the eye is amazing. Tampa has gone from being at 15' to 6'/ Meanwhile Sarasota and Ft Myers has gone up drastically.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092734.shtml?wsurge#contents

[parabrave]

The eye is now showing up on radar. This is a link to the Tampa NWS radar

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KTBW/standard

[schddog72]

I 75 Northbound out of Tampa has been red most of the day and is still at this min. Were in the upstate do you live? I lived in Anderson for awhile years ago/

We live in Duncan (between Greenville & Spartanburg); I lived in Anderson from 1991/2004.

[parabrave]

We live in Duncan (between Greenville & Spartanburg); I lived in Anderson from 1991/2004.

Check your PM

[Brobi-wan]

Praying for y’all in the storm path! Good luck and come out on the other side!

[911mom]

Prayers for all who were affected by hurricane Milton . Milton , we are happy that you have finally left the state . Tons of both rain and wind which seemed to last forever. Thankful that it is sunny and beautiful weather today.

[Cooterpoot]

Could've been worse. The tv weather peeps are disappointed it was the end of Tampa.

[Pancho]

yea, they were full on gasm for tampa to be blown all the way up

[TheRef]

I can tell you right now, any actual Meteorologist worth their salt is thankful there was no real destruction. I know many Meteorologists who will second guess themselves for the rest of their lives or commit suicide because they feel that they should/could have done more. Don't you EVER insinuate that Meteorologists want to see destruction and death.

[DownwardDawg]

I can tell you right now, any actual Meteorologist worth their salt is thankful there was no real destruction. I know many Meteorologists who will second guess themselves for the rest of their lives or commit suicide because they feel that they should/could have done more. Don't you EVER insinuate that Meteorologists want to see destruction and death.

Yes. Those meteorologists were begging people to leave. I watch these weather events nonstop and I never got the slightest hint that any of them wanted destruction. They were doing their jobs. Constantly explaining to people that they were showing you a worse case scenario. People hear what they want to hear.