After 1 game, which remaining games do we win?

[Quaoarsking]

A poll can only have 10 options, so I marked UMass as a W, since they probably aren't any better than Eastern Kentucky anyway.

I voted 8-4, but we're probably more likely to drop one of the home games and go 7-5:

Non-conference games
Arizona State - yes, it's on the road, but Arizona State was awful last year and got raided by the portal
Toledo - they are well-coached, but they're going to lose any good players to the portal going forward.
UMass - the worst FBS program

SEC home games
Florida - Will Billy be fired after losing to us, or we he be fired before they even get here?
Texas A&M - A true tossup, so I went with homefield advantage. There's something wrong with that program - they've been clearly "better" and "more talented" than us for the last 10 seasons, yet we're 6-4 against them in that stretch.
Arkansas - We've won 9 of the last 12 and they just aren't that good. Not sure why so many people think we're a heavy underdog in this. We even beat them last year up there with our worst team since the Croom days.
Missouri - If they don't beat an overrated Ohio State team last year that was half opted-out, nobody is talking about them being playoff contenders this year.

SEC road games
Texas - Texas loses a game or 2 like this every year, so I wouldn't be shocked if we won, but I can't really pick it.
Georgia - pretty obvious loss
Tennessee - tempted to pick the upset, but I'll go with homefield advantage again.
Ole Miss - sigh. Probably a loss.

[msstate7]

7-5 would be an amazing first year for lebby

[Quaoarsking]

7-5 would be an amazing first year for lebby

I won't scoff at it, but I think it's too early to say that for sure. If Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M are all bad (pretty likely on the first 2 at least, we'll see on A&M), then he really should go 3-0 against them at home.

[HoopsDawg]

We aren't going 8-4 but that's ok. Just enjoy each week.

[Johnson85]

A poll can only have 10 options, so I marked UMass as a W, since they probably aren't any better than Eastern Kentucky anyway.

I voted 8-4, but we're probably more likely to drop one of the home games and go 7-5:

Non-conference games
Arizona State - yes, it's on the road, but Arizona State was awful last year and got raided by the portal
Toledo - they are well-coached, but they're going to lose any good players to the portal going forward.
UMass - the worst FBS program

SEC home games
Florida - Will Billy be fired after losing to us, or we he be fired before they even get here?
Texas A&M - A true tossup, so I went with homefield advantage. There's something wrong with that program - they've been clearly "better" and "more talented" than us for the last 10 seasons, yet we're 6-4 against them in that stretch.
Arkansas - We've won 9 of the last 12 and they just aren't that good. Not sure why so many people think we're a heavy underdog in this. We even beat them last year up there with our worst team since the Croom days.
Missouri - If they don't beat an overrated Ohio State team last year that was half opted-out, nobody is talking about them being playoff contenders this year.

SEC road games
Texas - Texas loses a game or 2 like this every year, so I wouldn't be shocked if we won, but I can't really pick it.
Georgia - pretty obvious loss
Tennessee - tempted to pick the upset, but I'll go with homefield advantage again.
Ole Miss - sigh. Probably a loss.



Man, yall are getting a lot more info out of these games than I am. I still feel like 5 games is the break even for me.

4 OOC, and one of UF and ark. If we get both of them, great. We have 6 opponents in the top 25 so anything beyond 6 would be hard.

Is a&m overrated? Probably. And I?d bet Notre Dame is also. But they?re probably not bad.

[EdwardDrayton]

We aren't going 8-4 but that's ok. Just enjoy each week.

^^^^^^^

[MoreCowbell]

We will win the 4 ooc and after seeing other teams around country we have a great chance to beat Florida and Arkansas. Very pleased with what I saw today. Thought we would win 4 before the season but will change it to 6.

[Commercecomet24]

We aren't going 8-4 but that's ok. Just enjoy each week.

Yep I agree. I believe we'll go 6-6 and bowl again.

[Homedawg]

I won't scoff at it, but I think it's too early to say that for sure. If Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M are all bad (pretty likely on the first 2 at least, we'll see on A&M), then he really should go 3-0 against them at home.

A&M is bad? They played a team w a pulse.

[Homedawg]

We will win the 4 ooc and after seeing other teams around country we have a great chance to beat Florida and Arkansas. Very pleased with what I saw today. Thought we would win 4 before the season but will change it to 6.

Our run offense and run defense scare the crap out of me. And that was against eku

[Homedawg]

We aren't going 8-4 but that's ok. Just enjoy each week.

Almost zero chance

[Quaoarsking]

A&M is bad? They played a team w a pulse.

"We'll see on Texas A&M" ...

[LC Dawg]

I don't think you can take much from today's game except that our offense will be more exciting. I still say 6-6 would be a really good year. And 8-4 would be a miracle.
ETA: Also, it's obvious we are much better coached.

[Quaoarsking]

So, according to the poll, almost everyone expects us to beat Arizona State, Florida, and Arkansas, which would get us to 6-6.

Around half of us expect to beat Texas A&M and Missouri, which would get us to 8-4, as well as starting 7-2 and being in the playoff hunt in mid-November.

[Leeshouldveflanked]

4Wins?.Shapen will get injured and our DL is not good.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Our run offense and run defense scare the crap out of me. And that was against eku

Agreed. We need to run the ball better. And I?m still worried about the defense against the run, and also the defense creating a pass rush.

If Lebby goes 8-4 we should build a statue of him outside the stadium. It ain?t happening.

[Saltydog]

5 wins tops. We gave up 300 yards of offense to EKU for goodness sakes. We win one game and the wool starts to sprout.

[BigDawg81]

The game went like I thought it would. I?m little disappointed about the run game. It was awful.

[Offshore Dawg]

At this point in the season. 4 OOC and maybe Florida & Ark.

[klong-dog]

Man, yall are getting a lot more info out of these games than I am. I still feel like 5 games is the break even for me.

4 OOC, and one of UF and ark. If we get both of them, great. We have 6 opponents in the top 25 so anything beyond 6 would be hard.

Is a&m overrated? Probably. And I?d bet Notre Dame is also. But they?re probably not bad.
This

[Pancho]

I watched AZ State late last night. Their O is leagues above EKU. I think we need at least 40 points minimum to think of a W out west next saturday. They are going to move the ball on us. gotta see where we improve from game 1 to game 2. Go Lebby

[confucius say]

Yall realize we are an underdog against Arizona state right? 3.5 points.

[msstate7]

Yall realize we are an underdog against Arizona state right? 3.5 points.

Fpi favors them at 56.7%. Not sure how good this metric is this early though

[Quaoarsking]

We win one game and the wool starts to sprout.

I was already expecting to beat Florida, and it turns out Florida may be a good bit worse than I thought. I already thought the A&M game was a tossup, and now I realize A&M may be worse than I thought. (The jury's still out on that one though.)

So it's not that I'm overreacting to our game against Eastern Kentucky, it's just that we have evidence that 2 of our opponents may be worse than most people were expecting, and we get them at home, and they may be even more letdown after we play them.

[confucius say]

I was already expecting to beat Florida, and it turns out Florida may be a good bit worse than I thought. I already thought the A&M game was a tossup, and now I realize A&M may be worse than I thought. (The jury's still out on that one though.)

So it's not that I'm overreacting to our game against Eastern Kentucky, it's just that we have evidence that 2 of our opponents may be worse than most people were expecting, and we get them at home, and they may be even more letdown after we play them.

Aggie and Florida both played top 10-15 teams.

[Homedawg]

So, according to the poll, almost everyone expects us to beat Arizona State, Florida, and Arkansas, which would get us to 6-6.

Around half of us expect to beat Texas A&M and Missouri, which would get us to 8-4, as well as starting 7-2 and being in the playoff hunt in mid-November.

We have some maroon colored glasses fans then.

[Pancho]

what frame of mind will napier and his team be in after they lose to A&M? Lebby needs to be 3-0 at that point and pull out all the stops. I think he will and florida will be looking for a coach by october

[Quaoarsking]

Aggie and Florida both played top 10-15 teams.

Ah yes, Miami and Notre Dame - 2 programs that would never be overrated to start the season!

[Pancho]

Notre Dame is set up to not lose a game. Miami is way better than i expected.

[TheLostDawg]

Ah yes, Miami and Notre Dame - 2 programs that would never be overrated to start the season!

Not just this but Florida packed the place and was fired up. They had a huge home field advantage. I picked this as a loss because but I think that it will go down to the end like Mullen first year there

[Quaoarsking]

Before yesterday, I had Florida beating Miami and then losing to us. Before yesterday, I had Texas A&M beating Notre Dame and a tossup with us. So of course I'm going to be a little more confident in our games with those 2 teams after yesterday, especially Florida.

[Johnson85]

We have some maroon colored glasses fans then.

That's what it seems to me also.

I really don't know how to say who is what with all the transfers every year, but I just haven't seen anything to make me feel like we are likely to go 6-6 or better. I think it's entirely possible we have 6 teams on the schedule that we are better than, but most teams don't beat every team they are better than (although it certainly gets more likely when it's only 6 as opposed to 8 or 9 teams on your schedule.

Even assuming we are better than ASU, Toldeao, UF, Ark, and Umass, I would assume all of them with the possible exception of UMass are within upset distance of us, and all but Umass and Toledo easily within upset distance.

On the flipside, I think it's very likely UT and UGA have enough of a talent advantage over our DLine that they are pretty much out of upset range.

[PMDawg]

We win the next 3, we're looking good to win 6 or even 7, with a very outside shot at 8.
We win 2 of the next 3, we're looking at 5 or 6 wins.
We win 1 of the next 3, we're going to have to hope we get to 4.

[Quaoarsking]

How did I know that Notre Dame was overrated?? Am I a wizard?

[Brobi-wan]

Now we know Aggie is too.