Way too early Christmas Weather

[slickdawg]

Let me preface this with this:

LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE LARGE ERRORS.


The NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) has another arctic blast headed in just before Christmas. A 1050mb high pressure swings down into Wyoming out of Canada, and pumps in Arctic Air strait down into the US, plains eastward. Adding more fun to this is the model projecting precipitation falling over the southern plains into the lower MS valley. This is 15 days out and a WHOLE LOT can change, but in general terms, there's a good chance we'll see another cold blast around Christmas. That's how the patterns seem to be setting up this winter - which doesn't officially start until December 21. Stay tuned, I'm sure TheRef and I will geek out more on this.

Why is this remotely related to sports? One week after Christmas, a whole bunch of us will be in Memphis, outdoors, for a bowl game. If this is another one of these week long events with temps in the 20's, that won't be much fun. The 1991 Liberty Bowl might be the coldest I've ever been at a football game.

[TheRef]

And geek out we will, slick. I know that the CPC put out a product earlier in November saying that this Winter would be warmer than normal and we all in Hilbun laughed at it. We don't know what they were looking at but early indications are that we may actually have a colder than average Winter. Don't be surprised if you see wave after wave of cold air start setting up throughout the Winter. So make sure you have your coats ready to go for a long while because we will most likely need it.

[gtowndawg]

nm
And geek out we will, slick. I know that the CPC put out a product earlier in November saying that this Winter would be warmer than normal and we all in Hilbun laughed at it. We don't know what they were looking at but early indications are that we may actually have a colder than average Winter. Don't be surprised if you see wave after wave of cold air start setting up throughout the Winter. So make sure you have your coats ready to go for a long while because we will most likely need it.

[TheRef]

nm

Remember now...no tailgating at the Super Bowl.

[starkvegasdawg]

Let me preface this with this:

LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE LARGE ERRORS.


The NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) has another arctic blast headed in just before Christmas. A 1050mb high pressure swings down into Wyoming out of Canada, and pumps in Arctic Air strait down into the US, plains eastward. Adding more fun to this is the model projecting precipitation falling over the southern plains into the lower MS valley. This is 15 days out and a WHOLE LOT can change, but in general terms, there's a good chance we'll see another cold blast around Christmas. That's how the patterns seem to be setting up this winter - which doesn't officially start until December 21. Stay tuned, I'm sure TheRef and I will geek out more on this.

Why is this remotely related to sports? One week after Christmas, a whole bunch of us will be in Memphis, outdoors, for a bowl game. If this is another one of these week long events with temps in the 20's, that won't be much fun. The 1991 Liberty Bowl might be the coldest I've ever been at a football game.

Would love to see another white Christmas. Saw my only one in my almost 40 years of life a couple years ago. Officially it didn't count as there was not an 1" of snow on the ground but screw it, I from MS and if it was snowing on Christmas then it was a white Christmas.

[Barking 13]

All I know, is the fishing is done for this year... once the water gets cold and muddy, it won't perk up again till it hits a surface temp of around 60

[slickdawg]

This is in degrees (f) below normal. You'll see near Memphis in purple, temps over 40 degrees below normal.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbJbL9PCYAAyWJE.jpg

[TheRef]

Is that from WxBell?

[slickdawg]

I'm not sure, but it looks like it. I ripped it of storm2k.

[CJDAWG85]

So should we expect it to be really cold for XMas or the white death/rain too?

[TheRef]

I'm not sure, but it looks like it. I ripped it of storm2k.

It looks like WxBell...if WxBell isn't getting any revenue from that, they will rip them a new one for that. Ryan Maue is ferocious about that type of stuff. He doesn't mess around.

[slickdawg]

It looks like WxBell...if WxBell isn't getting any revenue from that, they will rip them a new one for that. Ryan Maue is ferocious about that type of stuff. He doesn't mess around.

Actually, I think it was from a tweet from Bastardi from WxBell.

[slickdawg]

This one should get some interest too.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_336_10m_wnd_precip.gif

[MetEdDawg]

Doesn't the GFS always have a southern snow storm 14-15 days out? That was always our joke around Hilbun anyways. There's always that one guy in every meteorology class that starts freaking out when the GFS or Canadian modeled wrap around snow down here on day 14.

I'm with those of you that have mentioned it already. Definitely was looking like early cold with shots of that nasty cold this year in terms of long range projecting. I think we will get some wrap around snow from a southern low at least once this year though. And if we really end up with cold air coming directly from a 1050 mb high, may God have mercy on our souls.

[TheRef]

I'll tell you this right now. If we have a strong high develop over Alaska and a Low in the South, God help us because like this cold shot, air is coming from Siberia, going over the pole and down straight to us. That's when you should be praying.

[slickdawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbOGvqvCQAAm29s.png

[slickdawg]

If this verifies, it's going to be epic cold. Like 1983 or 1989.

[CJDAWG85]

So no precipitation... Just really cold

[starkvegasdawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbOGvqvCQAAm29s.png

Ok, tell me what I'm missing here. It looks like for Starkville it is showing temps running around 15 degrees below normal. I saw that was in Celsius. I looked and our normal high around Christmas is 54F or 12C. So 15 degrees C colder than normal would be around -3C or highs in the upper 20's. So what is this weather nerd wanna be overlooking? I remember those two outbreaks in the 80's you were referencing. At least one of them we were down around 0 for a couple of days.

[camsu]

Glad I live in CA this winter. Of course, we need rain lots of rain so we don't burn next summer and that does not look good

[BeastMan]

I'll admit that both the Liberty Bowls were cold as hell but it doesn't even compare the the level of coldness I felt for the Snow Bowl. That was probably the coldest I've ever been in my life.

[M.Fillmore]

Al Gore told me to get my short pants on and go barefooted. It's all warming up.

[slickdawg]

Ok, tell me what I'm missing here. It looks like for Starkville it is showing temps running around 15 degrees below normal. I saw that was in Celsius. I looked and our normal high around Christmas is 54F or 12C. So 15 degrees C colder than normal would be around -3C or highs in the upper 20's. So what is this weather nerd wanna be overlooking? I remember those two outbreaks in the 80's you were referencing. At least one of them we were down around 0 for a couple of days.

Different models have different outputs. Some have us in the 83/89 category, others are milder, but generally below freezing. For example, the GFS has Dallas getting down to 8 degrees in this on the 25th or so.

[DownwardDawg]

Ok, tell me what I'm missing here. It looks like for Starkville it is showing temps running around 15 degrees below normal. I saw that was in Celsius. I looked and our normal high around Christmas is 54F or 12C. So 15 degrees C colder than normal would be around -3C or highs in the upper 20's. So what is this weather nerd wanna be overlooking? I remember those two outbreaks in the 80's you were referencing. At least one of them we were down around 0 for a couple of days.

I was deer hunting in Jasper County when it got down to 0 one morning. Wind chill was supposedly around 8-9 below. It was stupid cold. We didn't last long.

[FlabLoser]

TWC has Jackson at 69 degrees on Dec 20.

[slickdawg]

Per Joe Bastardi

ECWMF "control" run takes Siberian system over pole then has it over N Plains by 22cnd. If right would rival 89,83 pic.twitter.com/GaFzbiXTiy


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbO1qyVCUAAZ1ww.jpg

[FlabLoser]

I'll never forget 89. My car was coated with about 4 inches of ice. The college closed that morning and everybody had to leave. It took me a couple hours to get in the car. Students were pouring hot water, rubbing alcohol, and chipping away at their cars until about noon.

[slickdawg]

The NWS is eluding to this now. This far in advance is pretty rare for them because of the potential for large errors in models


LONG RANGE FORECAST...
...FOR THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...
...THURSDAY DEC 19 THROUGH MONDAY DEC 23...

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THAT COULD START JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF
THE LATEST 42-MEMBER NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE (NAEFS) SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOWER END OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT /TWO
TO THREE DAY/ PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER
END OF THE IMPACTS SUGGEST A 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.

BASED ON THE LAST 3-4 RUNS OF THE NAEFS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
DEC 19 OR DEC 20. THE FORECAST 500 MB PATTERN AND FORECAST MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA STRONGLY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
PLUNGING AIRMASS AT LEAST AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED IN
TEXAS ON DEC 5-6. THIS MORNINGS /12Z/ DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL COLD SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY DEC 19 OR FRIDAY DEC 20. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEC 21-22.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE IS MUCH MORE
PROBLEMATIC AND A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE NAEFS...WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY 42 INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS USING TWO SEPARATE PHYSICS
PACKAGES...SHOWS A HUGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THAT HUGE RANGE
IS TYPICAL WITH ANY STRONG SYSTEMS IN THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING CHANCES THAT VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE PERIOD DEC 20-23...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

09/PATRICK

[FlabLoser]

I hate all caps.

[slickdawg]

Let me preface this with this:

LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE LARGE ERRORS.


The NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) has another arctic blast headed in just before Christmas. A 1050mb high pressure swings down into Wyoming out of Canada, and pumps in Arctic Air strait down into the US, plains eastward. Adding more fun to this is the model projecting precipitation falling over the southern plains into the lower MS valley. This is 15 days out and a WHOLE LOT can change, but in general terms, there's a good chance we'll see another cold blast around Christmas. That's how the patterns seem to be setting up this winter - which doesn't officially start until December 21. Stay tuned, I'm sure TheRef and I will geek out more on this.

Why is this remotely related to sports? One week after Christmas, a whole bunch of us will be in Memphis, outdoors, for a bowl game. If this is another one of these week long events with temps in the 20's, that won't be much fun. The 1991 Liberty Bowl might be the coldest I've ever been at a football game.


As prefaced, long range computer models typically have large errors. This was a perfect example of one.


Now chicken little, excuse me, Joe Bastardi, is squaking about the 240 hour (10 days) ECMWF bringing bitter cold.

Unless it's withing the 3-5 day range, there's very little skill in forecasting the weather.

[TheRef]

As prefaced, long range computer models typically have large errors. This was a perfect example of one.


Now chicken little, excuse me, Joe Bastardi, is squaking about the 240 hour (10 days) ECMWF bringing bitter cold.

Unless it's withing the 3-5 day range, there's very little skill in forecasting the weather.

As the great Dr. Charles Wax says, anything past 3 days is magic!!!

[slickdawg]

As the great Dr. Charles Wax says, anything past 3 days is magic!!!

Words of wisdom.

[bully99]

James Spann over in Birmingham says anything past 7 days is "Voodoo" land. Bastardi does hype the future a lot, but he said nice things about MSU when he and his son visited campus in the summer.

[FlabLoser]

I'm hearing there could be a tornado outbreak in the south this weekend. Should be over 70 degrees on Friday. That makes the skies angry in the winter time.