D1 has us hosting in final projection

[ScoobaDawg]

Very fluid though.
https://d1baseball.com/stories/2024-d1baseball-field-of-64-projections/

Seems to think Duke is our competition.
Duke's game against fsu (which would give them 20 acc victories and a top 16 rpi). Is at noon.
I seem to remember the announcement coming out right before or during the sec championship game.

[Quaoarsking]

I hope he's right. It would be a big departure from what the selection committee has been doing lately, but it's not like the committee has never had big departures before.

Also, I kinda suspect that if the committee does pick us to be a host, they won't give us such an easy regional - we would probably get a 2 seed who barely missed hosting, or at least some conference champions and/or Power Conference teams. Southern Miss, Nicholls, and Tulane is probably the easiest stack that any host gets in the entire mock bracket.

[ScoobaDawg]

Host list released at 730pm

[Goldendawg]

Duke up 5-2, top of the 3rd. Need FSU to rally.

[Todd4State]

I think we end up hosting. RPI is really our only bad metric. And the other metrics are really good.

Plus most of our bad losses were to teams early in the year that won their conference and also when we were missing Mershon and Kohler. Those teams ended up with sub 100 RPI's even though the reality is they really aren't bad teams.

And then you have the Georgia SEC officials debacle which is a game that should be thrown out.

[AROB44]

When are the regional sites announced? Are they televised?

[Goldendawg]

Duke now up 9-2. If we don't host, we did it to ourselves.

[maroonmania]

Can anyone determine what our RPI would be if we had canceled the UNA game like we would have without the NCAA warning not to? East Carolina canceled a low RPI game anyway and that's the ONLY reason they are ine spot ahead of us.

[Todd4State]

Can anyone determine what our RPI would be if we had canceled the UNA game like we would have without the NCAA warning not to? East Carolina canceled a low RPI game anyway and that's the ONLY reason they are ine spot ahead of us.

We only lost two spots when we played them so I'm not sure it would have made that much difference.

[Quaoarsking]

Can anyone determine what our RPI would be if we had canceled the UNA game like we would have without the NCAA warning not to? East Carolina canceled a low RPI game anyway and that's the ONLY reason they are ine spot ahead of us.

My calculation has us still at #24 if we don't play UNA at all, because the gap in front of us is too big to make it up:
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/team-impact?team=Mississippi-State

We're at 0.5821, and the next team in front of us is East Carolina, at 0.5841. The game against UNA cost us, but not quite 0.002 points.

However, there is a big bunch of teams in front us from 18 to 23, with #18 being just at 0.5848. If we had beaten Georgia in the game where the SEC incorrectly ejected half of our team, we jump all of them to finish at #18. The committee isn't really supposed to consider "what ifs" because we can't prove that we would have won had that not happened, but I think they might take it into account anyway. If our RPI were #18, I think we definitely host.

And I'll do the obligatory thing and point out that if you drop our 5 games against MSM, Alcorn, and UNA, and replace them with wins over Arkansas State and Northwestern State (two teams that aren't very good and that we likely beat, but not RPI killers), that also brings us up to #18. So just dumping UNA alone doesn't help us enough, but swapping out those 5 does.

[Goldendawg]

Duke up 14 -4.

[MrCoachKlein]

Any metric that punishes you for winning is asinine.

[CaptainObvious]

If Duke run-rules FSU, Shirley they will not give FSU a Top 8 Seed.

[maroonmania]

My calculation has us still at #24 if we don't play UNA at all, because the gap in front of us is too big to make it up:
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/team-impact?team=Mississippi-State

We're at 0.5821, and the next team in front of us is East Carolina, at 0.5841. The game against UNA cost us, but not quite 0.002 points.

However, there is a big bunch of teams in front us from 18 to 23, with #18 being just at 0.5848. If we had beaten Georgia in the game where the SEC incorrectly ejected half of our team, we jump all of them to finish at #18. The committee isn't really supposed to consider "what ifs" because we can't prove that we would have won had that not happened, but I think they might take it into account anyway. If our RPI were #18, I think we definitely host.

And I'll do the obligatory thing and point out that if you drop our 5 games against MSM, Alcorn, and UNA, and replace them with wins over Arkansas State and Northwestern State (two teams that aren't very good and that we likely beat, but not RPI killers), that also brings us up to #18. So just dumping UNA alone doesn't help us enough, but swapping out those 5 does.

Yes, that Saturday GA game really sticks out and could very well be the difference in hosting or not yet the outcome was totally taken out of our hands by the incompetence of the SEC office. The other games we lost were legitimate losses. That one absolutely was not and should be thrown out for consideration by the NCAA committee although I'm sure it won't be.

[maroonmania]

My calculation has us still at #24 if we don't play UNA at all, because the gap in front of us is too big to make it up:
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/team-impact?team=Mississippi-State

We're at 0.5821, and the next team in front of us is East Carolina, at 0.5841. The game against UNA cost us, but not quite 0.002 points.

However, there is a big bunch of teams in front us from 18 to 23, with #18 being just at 0.5848. If we had beaten Georgia in the game where the SEC incorrectly ejected half of our team, we jump all of them to finish at #18. The committee isn't really supposed to consider "what ifs" because we can't prove that we would have won had that not happened, but I think they might take it into account anyway. If our RPI were #18, I think we definitely host.

And I'll do the obligatory thing and point out that if you drop our 5 games against MSM, Alcorn, and UNA, and replace them with wins over Arkansas State and Northwestern State (two teams that aren't very good and that we likely beat, but not RPI killers), that also brings us up to #18. So just dumping UNA alone doesn't help us enough, but swapping out those 5 does.


If Duke run-rules FSU, Shirley they will not give FSU a Top 8 Seed.

Very few if any teams lose national seeding over tourney results. I'm not really even sure how much tourney results play into the hosting discussion.