The scramble to host a Regional

[Coach34]

ok- as the last couple of weeks are here- its time to look at the battle to host for the SEC:

State- 14-10. RPI is 18. play @UPig and then home to Mizzou. We simply have to win one against UPig to stay in the mix to host. Get swept and hosting is out. Winning the series would almost guarantee it. Handle bidness vs Mizzou with a sweep being especially helpful as 18 wins would damn near lock it up

Georgia- 13-11 in the SEC after sweeping Candy. RPI is 5. @SC and then home to the desperate Fla Gators. They are in great shape to be a host and pushing for a national seed if they continue to roll

SC- 13-11 in the SEC after saving G3 vs Mizzou to win the series. RPI is 13. Home to Georgia and then @Tenn. In a great position to host as well unless they have a complete breakdown.

Candy- 11-13 in the SEC losing 5 of last 6 to State and Georgia. RPI is 26 now. We broke them. Home to Tenn and then @TheKentuckyClownShow. Chances of hosting are slimmer than Will Rogers throwing a pass longer than 10 yards

Bammer- 10-14 in the SEC with an RPI of 14. Conference record is hurting them but RPI keeps them alive. LSU at home and then @Auburn. 5-1 and they likely host. finishing below .500 would really hurt their chances but not a complete deal killer

We are also battling teams from other conferences on the host bubble obviously but it comes down to us doing our job.

RPI teams:

#25 Mississippi (RPI gives them life but its mighty dim making a Regional)
#24 Oklahoma St
#23- Florida
#22- Duke
#21- Nebraska
#20- Dallas Baptist
#19- NC State
#18- State
#17- Oklahoma
#16- UC Santa Barbara

[basedog]

Interesting stuff. I think 7 make the hosting from the Sec. But it's only what I think.

[MoreCowbell]

I have a hard time seeing us not hosting if we win 1 at Ark and take 2 from Mizzou. 17-14 likely puts us at 5th place in the SEC and probably an RPI around 20. I would think that gets it done.

[Todd4State]

Like Base said I think we're starting to run into the issue of how many SEC teams the committee will take this year.

Right now we're number 10 in KPI the metric the committee is supposed to be using this year which is 6th in the SEC. Looking at the data I think our main competition is Georgia who has a higher RPI and KPI however, they have a worse SEC record, we beat them head to head and I'm not sure how the committee is going to view our loss to them being how weird it was and grossly mismanaged it was. Georgia and South Carolina will probably cannibalize each other and then South Carolina has Tennessee.

Here is how I see it for us:

Arkansas series- this is basically like us playing with house money. If we win it helps a lot and if we lose it won't hurt that bad. How many we win will determine how many we have to win against Mizzou which to me in some ways is more important. Win one and we essentially hold our ground.

North Alabama- Just have to win. Can NOT afford another Central Arkansas situation. The scary thing for us is assuming Pico moves to the rotation who do we start? We can't afford to "see if Colby Holcombe has figured it out" and we really probably need someone like Cam Schuelke to eat up a ton of innings. Hopefully this gets rained out but who knows a week from now what the weather will be?

Mizzou- Really need to sweep. Like I said a loss here could be offset by a win against Arkansas. Mizzou is not a good team- but they're good enough to beat us on any random day. We're going to need to focus and play clean baseball to sweep. The problem with Mizzou is their metrics are bad so any loss hurts.

I think if we get to 17 we host. My mind hasn't really changed about that. I'm not sure that the Mizzou/Arkansas combination matters much as long as we get there.

If Alabama loses one more SEC game I don't think they host. That would go against recent precedent but IF they did that would be good news for us IMO because there is no way they would host with a worse record than us assuming we win at least two more games. And I think LSU beats them at least once. Vanderbilt is in the same boat with a more difficult schedule and Leiter and Rocker ain't walking through that door.

[Todd4State]

Also if Georgia is the team that is rumored to be cheating and that actually comes to light soon- that's probably very much in our favor too. They may end up getting disqualified from the regionals altogether if that happens.

[Santiago]

State not having to play 3 of the top 4 east teams, and a weak non-conference to me is the knock on our strength of schedule.

[Pancho]

and we struggle vs juco pitching

[Todd4State]

State not having to play 3 of the top 4 east teams, and a weak non-conference to me is the knock on our strength of schedule.

Not a big issue with the committee. Last time I looked our SOS is 18.

Funny thing though is we had so many fans talking about how brutal our SEC schedule was preseason.

[Coach34]

yeah- we have the 18th toughest schedule in the country right now. So soft

[Cooterpoot]

I have a hard time seeing us not hosting if we win 1 at Ark and take 2 from Mizzou. 17-14 likely puts us at 5th place in the SEC and probably an RPI around 20. I would think that gets it done.

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

We don't have to win both. I think getting one against Arky is paramount though. We have to get one there and then probably sweep Mizzou. I'll believe we're actually playing that UNA game when I see it.

[Coach34]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

Win the UPig series and we are guaranteed. Nolan has us at a 26 predicted RPI and that includes UPig sweeping us.

[Todd4State]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

I would be surprised if we drop 5 spots for playing UNA. Some of the teams around us like Cal Santa Barbara have entire series against teams with similar RPI's.

[Cooterpoot]

I would be surprised if we drop 5 spots for playing UNA. Some of the teams around us like Cal Santa Barbara have entire series against teams with similar RPI's.

I think it's about a 5 spot drop based on their numbers. Almost certainly a 3 spot drop. But you can make it up by winning games.
Softball is in a very similar position. AL who is three spots behind us in the conference has a higher RPI and projected to just over us. RPI is 100% manufactured horse shit used to get things done a certain way.

[Commercecomet24]

I think it's about a 5 spot drop based on their numbers. Almost certainly a 3 spot drop. But you can make it up by winning games.
Softball is in a very similar position. AL who is three spots behind us in the conference has a higher RPI and projected to just over us. RPI is 100% manufactured horse shit used to get things done a certain way.

Yep, you nailed it!

[basedog]

Just keep winning.

[Coursesuper]

I think it's about a 5 spot drop based on their numbers. Almost certainly a 3 spot drop. But you can make it up by winning games.
Softball is in a very similar position. AL who is three spots behind us in the conference has a higher RPI and projected to just over us. RPI is 100% manufactured horse shit used to get things done a certain way.

RPI is the HR equivalent of College sports.

[Jacknut]

We're gonna be a high 2 seed. We'll take one from the Hogs, beat UNA and take 2-3 from Mizzou. It's not unrealistic to think we might host, but don't be overly disappointed if we don't.

[Homedawg]

We don't have to win both. I think getting one against Arky is paramount though. We have to get one there and then probably sweep Mizzou. I'll believe we're actually playing that UNA game when I see it.

I'd love to be wrong. But I think we have to get to 18 sec wins and it's not a guarantee but feel good. At 17 better have one against ark. Something just says we get left out at 17. Obviously, games other than ours have to be played and can move things one way on another. Think win 5 out of 6 and we have taken it of the committees hands.

[State82]

I'd love to be wrong. But I think we have to get to 18 sec wins and it's not a guarantee but feel good. At 17 better have one against ark. Something just says we get left out at 17. Obviously, games other than ours have to be played and can move things one way on another. Think win 5 out of 6 and we have taken it of the committees hands.

I agree. I would be shocked to get a host spot with 17 conference wins. Now 18, I think that is a good possibility.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Regional hosting FAQ

(1) Is hosting based on RPI and other Measures of baseball performance Exclusively?
(2) Do the potential hosts need to promise anything related to revenue? Hot Dog Sales, Coke Sales, Hotel Room Kick-Backs, Etc. Like Bowl Games do?

Many of the potential hosts that are not MSU or Ole Miss probably can't even promise 200 tickets to be sold. Unless they get to host MSU or OM.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I'd love to be wrong. But I think we have to get to 18 sec wins and it's not a guarantee but feel good. At 17 better have one against ark. Something just says we get left out at 17. Obviously, games other than ours have to be played and can move things one way on another. Think win 5 out of 6 and we have taken it of the committees hands.

We win 2 of 3 at Arky and outside of losing the series to Mizzou we will host. No one has taken a series at Arky all year and only Florida and James Madison have won there. I mean they are 31-2 at home. To go in there and take a series against arguably the best home team in college baseball would be a LOUD statement. Then again, we went into Alex Box last year and took a series so it could happen.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Regional hosting FAQ

(1) Is hosting based on RPI and other Measures of baseball performance Exclusively?
(2) Do the potential hosts need to promise anything related to revenue? Hot Dog Sales, Coke Sales, Hotel Room Kick-Backs, Etc. Like Bowl Games do?

Many of the potential hosts that are not MSU or Ole Miss probably can't even promise 200 tickets to be sold. Unless they get to host MSU or OM.

Not anymore. They ended stuff like that in the mid 00s. When bidding went away completely they did away with that.

[Quaoarsking]

Regional hosting FAQ

(1) Is hosting based on RPI and other Measures of baseball performance Exclusively?
(2) Do the potential hosts need to promise anything related to revenue? Hot Dog Sales, Coke Sales, Hotel Room Kick-Backs, Etc. Like Bowl Games do?

Many of the potential hosts that are not MSU or Ole Miss probably can't even promise 200 tickets to be sold. Unless they get to host MSU or OM.

1. "Yes"
2. "No"

[Homedawg]

We win 2 of 3 at Arky and outside of losing the series to Mizzou we will host. No one has taken a series at Arky all year and only Florida and James Madison have won there. I mean they are 31-2 at home. To go in there and take a series against arguably the best home team in college baseball would be a LOUD statement. Then again, we went into Alex Box last year and took a series so it could happen.
I said if we get to 18 I feel good but no guarantee. Now if the 4 are 2 and 2. I think it's a lot closer to a lock.

[BeardoMSU]

https://twitter.com/brianhadad/status/1787969112343294062?t=kFyuUlJmooScbK378L920Q&s=19

[BeardoMSU]

I think we'll host....just really hope the seeding works out where we can avoid A$M and Ark.

[Homedawg]

https://twitter.com/brianhadad/status/1787969112343294062?t=kFyuUlJmooScbK378L920Q&s=19

Bet he didn't think ark wasn't hosting in 22 either. But....... I pray he's right. Get to 18 and I'll feel better. Can't get swept!!

[Todd4State]

Kendall has some connections on the committee or at least he used to and so that's probably a good sign.

I do agree with him- if the season ended today we would host but we have some opportunities to screw it up.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Kendall has some connections on the committee or at least he used to and so that's probably a good sign.

I do agree with him- if the season ended today we would host but we have some opportunities to screw it up.

I think the biggest thing is DON'T GET SWEPT. Find a way to at least win 1.

[KOdawg1]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.
Wrong

[QuadrupleOption]

ok- as the last couple of weeks are here- its time to look at the battle to host for the SEC:

State- 14-10. RPI is 18. play @UPig and then home to Mizzou. We simply have to win one against UPig to stay in the mix to host. Get swept and hosting is out. Winning the series would almost guarantee it. Handle bidness vs Mizzou with a sweep being especially helpful as 18 wins would damn near lock it up

Georgia- 13-11 in the SEC after sweeping Candy. RPI is 5. @SC and then home to the desperate Fla Gators. They are in great shape to be a host and pushing for a national seed if they continue to roll

SC- 13-11 in the SEC after saving G3 vs Mizzou to win the series. RPI is 13. Home to Georgia and then @Tenn. In a great position to host as well unless they have a complete breakdown.

Candy- 11-13 in the SEC losing 5 of last 6 to State and Georgia. RPI is 26 now. We broke them. Home to Tenn and then @TheKentuckyClownShow. Chances of hosting are slimmer than Will Rogers throwing a pass longer than 10 yards

Bammer- 10-14 in the SEC with an RPI of 14. Conference record is hurting them but RPI keeps them alive. LSU at home and then @Auburn. 5-1 and they likely host. finishing below .500 would really hurt their chances but not a complete deal killer

We are also battling teams from other conferences on the host bubble obviously but it comes down to us doing our job.

RPI teams:

#25 Mississippi (RPI gives them life but its mighty dim making a Regional)
#24 Oklahoma St
#23- Florida
#22- Duke
#21- Nebraska
#20- Dallas Baptist
#19- NC State
#18- State
#17- Oklahoma
#16- UC Santa Barbara

We have as good a chance as any. I think like everyone else here - win 1 at Ark and win the series against Mizzou, end up17-13 and we're probably ok.

But I'm glad we're talking about HOSTING and not about whether or not we'll even make the tourney. It's a good change from the last couple of years.

[Commercecomet24]

I think 18 wins gets us, 17 is a toss up. Kendall Rogers generally knows his stuff though. Just win and it'll all take care of itself.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I think 18 wins gets us, 17 is a toss up. Kendall Rogers generally knows his stuff though. Just win and it'll all take care of itself.

That's the biggest thing. Take it out of the committee's hands.

[CaptainObvious]

I hope all of you guys are right!

I just don't see our batters having much success against Arkansas pitching. You can expect at least 12 K's for the series between Hines and Jordan. Kohler, Larry and whoever the catcher is still have to bat.

Maybe they will have some success up there with the bats. I certainly hope so. Like y'all have said, win 1 at UArk.

It would be so Lemonis to take one from UArk and lose 2 of 3 to Missouri! 😳

[Coach34]

I hope all of you guys are right!

I just don't see our batters having much success against Arkansas pitching. You can expect at least 12 K's for the series between Hines and Jordan. Kohler, Larry and whoever the catcher is still have to bat.

Maybe they will have some success up there with the bats. I certainly hope so. Like y'all have said, win 1 at UArk.

It would be so Lemonis to take one from UArk and lose 2 of 3 to Missouri! ��

Well UPig sweeping us wouldnt "surprise" me. We dont seem to play them very well lately. They have the best SP in the country going Friday- he struck what- 16 vs the Clowns last weekend? However they are beatable on Sat/Sun. Purdue will battle Friday and who knows. Jerk has been good as the #2 and gives us a chance. We have no idea what we will get on Sunday.

[Coach34]

Hagen Smith is pulling a Skeens. If it continues we will have seen 2 of the best seasons by SEC pitchers in history in B2B years

Smith in 2024:

9-0
66 IP
29 hits/25 walks
10 ER's
125 K's
.132 BA allowed
7 XBH's in 66 IP's

[Commercecomet24]

Well UPig sweeping us wouldnt "surprise" me. We dont seem to play them very well lately. They have the best SP in the country going Friday- he struck what- 16 vs the Clowns last weekend? However they are beatable on Sat/Sun. Purdue will battle Friday and who knows. Jerk has been good as the #2 and gives us a chance. We have no idea what we will get on Sunday.

You know 34, a big thing now, at every level is to pitch off. What we did last year at lsu in game 1 against Skenes. I wouldn't be surprised if we move Khal to Saturday and Lo to Sunday, and go with Auger or whoever friday night. With no midweek game we have everyone rested completely. While personally I always love seeing aces go against each other, pitching off is a great strategy for winning a series. I've watched team win series over and over doing this.

[Coursesuper]

You know 34, a big thing now, at every level is to pitch off. What we did last year at lsu in game 1 against Skenes. I wouldn't be surprised if we move Khal to Saturday and Lo to Sunday, and go with Auger or whoever friday night. With no midweek game we have everyone rested completely. While personally I always love seeing aces go against each other, pitching off is a great strategy for winning a series. I've watched team win series over and over doing this.

Whatever we have to do to get 1 is the way to play it. I like this approach gives us our best chance.

[Coach34]

You know 34, a big thing now, at every level is to pitch off. What we did last year at lsu in game 1 against Skenes. I wouldn't be surprised if we move Khal to Saturday and Lo to Sunday, and go with Auger or whoever friday night. With no midweek game we have everyone rested completely. While personally I always love seeing aces go against each other, pitching off is a great strategy for winning a series. I've watched team win series over and over doing this.

yeah no doubt. I would 100% support us doing it this weekend.

[Homedawg]

You know 34, a big thing now, at every level is to pitch off. What we did last year at lsu in game 1 against Skenes. I wouldn't be surprised if we move Khal to Saturday and Lo to Sunday, and go with Auger or whoever friday night. With no midweek game we have everyone rested completely. While personally I always love seeing aces go against each other, pitching off is a great strategy for winning a series. I've watched team win series over and over doing this.

problem w that is, we have a thurs, fri sat seried next week and would have to bump lo and Khal both up 2 days or have pen guy throw on thursday against missouri.

[Commercecomet24]

problem w that is, we have a thurs, fri sat seried next week and would have to bump lo and Khal both up 2 days or have pen guy throw on thursday against missouri.

That's a good point. I'd be willing to gamble on it myself, but that's just me. Whatever Parker does I'm good with because he's proven to me that he knows what he's doing. I trust the guy.

[Coach34]

That's a good point. I'd be willing to gamble on it myself, but that's just me. Whatever Parker does I'm good with because he's proven to me that he knows what he's doing. I trust the guy.

Yeah I'd be willing to make that gamble vs Mizzou

[KOdawg1]

Best hope to win vs Smith is work his pitch count up, and hope it's close enough that we can touch their bullpen late in the game. He's gonna go 6-7 innings and give us close to nothing.

I wouldn't waste Stephen or Lo against him but that's just me

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

I disagree. If we win 1 at Arkansas and then sweep Missouri, we would be 18-12 in SEC play. I think 18-12 gets a regional host.

[Brobi-wan]

This team is weird enough to beat Arkansas Friday night and lose the series.

[State82]

While personally I always love seeing aces go against each other, pitching off is a great strategy for winning a series. I've watched team win series over and over doing this.

Without question I would do that this weekend. Whatever gamble it may present against Mizzou I would just accept it and move on.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Hagen Smith is pulling a Skeens. If it continues we will have seen 2 of the best seasons by SEC pitchers in history in B2B years

Smith in 2024:

9-0
66 IP
29 hits/25 walks
10 ER's
125 K's
.132 BA allowed
7 XBH's in 66 IP's

I would be tempted to start Holcombe vs Smith. Save my bullets for Game 2 and 3.

[Homedawg]

I would be tempted to start Holcombe vs Smith. Save my bullets for Game 2 and 3.

Shit why even play.....

[Todd4State]

I would be tempted to start Holcombe vs Smith. Save my bullets for Game 2 and 3.

If we're going to do the reverse rotation thing we could start Pico. Things are set up pretty well for that actually. And then go Stephen and Loo.

[Commercecomet24]

Shit why even play.....

Well it would be over by the 7th lol!

[The Federalist Engineer]

Shit why even play.....

I heard CH was a top-5 SEC starter ***

Applying the Herm Edward's philosophy, you play to win the 'game'. The 'game' is the series-win, not just Friday.

They have Smith, Tygart, and Molina. So good on 3 three nights. The way MSU pitches, we are going soft on Sunday. I'm just flipping the weekend to go soft on Friday.

Yeah, MSU is pitching Stephen on Friday. Hope we win, will be watching