2024 football prediction

[Walkerhill]

Watching OU film to see the Lebby offense, I had high expectations of Gabriel, who is statistically one of the most prolific college qbs ever. But what stood out was the opposite, he has clear issues with footwork and accuracy. He often bailed himself out with his feet, doing a good job both throwing on the run and scrambling, and also throws a nice deep ball. But as a pocket passer he misses short and intermediate passes frequently, throwing to receivers feet and behind targets.

OU had a good o-line but few draft prospects at rb or wr. Lebby did a lot with average skill players. Looking back this has largely been the case at UCF and OM as well.

He will do the same at State. Shapen has a big year and ends up a dark horse Heisman candidate, finding his way onto watch lists late in the season. If he retains the starting position, Gabriel falls way down the ladder in qb rating playing in a west coast style offense. Ty Thompson, the man who transferred from OU,to make way for Gabriel, also has a superior season to Gabriel statistically.

[Homedawg]

5-7

[BeardoMSU]

5-7


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skawrfm0AIM&ab_channel=ClintonLynch

[viverlibre]

I'm holding out for 6-6. That will be something to build on.

[CaptainObvious]

16-0! A guy can dream right?

[Commercecomet24]

6-6, would be a good start for Lebby.

[KOdawg1]

6-6 and a semi-exciting offense, and I'll be happy

[BuckyIsAB****]

7-5

[BuckyIsAB****]

Just beat OM

[BeardoMSU]

Just beat OM

So 1-11 and you'd be happy as long as we beat OM?

[Walkerhill]

5-7

I have no idea on record. I would bet money we have a top 30 offense with a ceiling in the 10-15 range. No idea how to gauge our defense.

I could see us winning some shootouts if the offense is really good and getting to 7-8 wins, losing some shootouts and struggling to get bow eligible if the offense is good but not great.

If the defense outperforms the low expectations (maybe the staff is better than we think, we land some defensive transfers, or both) then maybe we nab some upsets. It would be sweet to play spoiler on OM CFP hopes, for example.

My wild guess prediction today is 6 wins capped with a bowl win. SEC wins are Florida and Arkansas.

[Homedawg]

I have no idea on record. I would bet money we have a top 30 offense with a ceiling in the 10-15 range. No idea how to gauge our defense.

I could see us winning some shootouts if the offense is really good and getting to 7-8 wins, losing some shootouts and struggling to get bow eligible if the offense is good but not great.

If the defense outperforms the low expectations (maybe the staff is better than we think, we land some defensive transfers, or both) then maybe we nab some upsets. It would be sweet to play spoiler on OM CFP hopes, for example.

My wild guess prediction today is 6 wins capped with a bowl win. SEC wins are Florida and Arkansas.

If you think we are going to finish in the top 15 in offense you are about to be crushed.

[Todd4State]

I bet we find a way to beat a team we shouldn't.

Arizona State will be a big game for us as far as having a bowl eligible season. Going 4-0 would be helpful.

I feel pretty confident about Arkansas in Starkville. I think we can beat Mizzou in Starkville. I think it's really unlikely that they replicate last season. Florida will be a big game for us as well. Egg Bowl- who knows how that is going to go?

[BuckyIsAB****]

So 1-11 and you'd be happy as long as we beat OM?

No id be pissed

[TrapGame]

6-6 with an outside shot at 7. I think we'll be better than some think.

[Coach34]

I think 5-7 but 6-6 is attainable

[PMDawg]

Just beat OM

Horrible take from the 1980s.

[viverlibre]

Horrible take from the 1980s.

Concur, i hate that kind of mindset, and it is way too prevalent in our fan base. Too many of our fans are obsessed with OM.

[DownwardDawg]

7-5
I'll "accept" 6-6 if we look competitive and our coach doesn't look lost and embarrass us on national television.

[maroonmania]

We SHOULD win more than 4 but over 4.5 is not easy money. IMO, to get to 5 we have to win our 3 non P5 OOC games and then we have to win 2 of @Arizona State, Florida and Arkansas. We will be pretty significant underdogs in all other games. So 5 wins is very doable but not a slam dunk. TA&M is sort of a wild card. I expect them to be much improved under Elko but who knows. And sorry, meant this under the Fanduel betting thread.

[Duckdog]

12-0

[DesotoDog1967]

What defense are they even running? 4-3????

[Walkerhill]

If you think we are going to finish in the top 15 in offense you are about to be crushed.

In the last 7 years Lebby offenses have ranked 5, 4, 2, 3, 6, 33, 4 in total offense.

I expect 15-20 probably just based on the state of our offensive personnel when he took over and the amount of new and/or unproven players. If we wind up top 15 in total offense, Lebby did a heck of a coaching job.

That being said, a lot of those previous teams had similar challenges - 2018 UCF had a freshman starter qb, 2020 Ole Miss was coming off prolonged ncaa probation from the Freeze era, 2022 Oklahoma had severe player attrition the preceding off season.

If anything, I am being a little cautious and pessimistic vs. past performance.

[Leroy Jenkins]

We'll see what he can bring in when the post spring portal opens. He put together a pretty solid class in the 2 weeks before signing day. I'm curious to see what he can do after a few months on the job.

[msumudcat]

Floor 5-7 Ceiling 7-5. Take the middle at 6-6

[preachermatt83]

Floor 5-7 Ceiling 7-5. Take the middle at 6-6

This

[Goldendawg]

6-6 Floor, 8-4 ceiling, 7-5 great 1st year. Some opponents on our schedule have to mesh into a team from August fall practice to the first game just like us. The portal has changed things. Good coaches must put things together every year now.

[schddog72]

Floor 5-7 Ceiling 7-5. Take the middle at 6-6

Don't mean to be a downer, but I think 7-5 is extremely optimistic. My realistic expectation is 4-8 (floor as well) with a ceiling of 7-5. I would be extremely happy with 6-6 in the first year given what we lost vs what's coming back. I hope I'm wrong, though!!

[Quaoarsking]

A lot will depend on whether Texas and Missouri are great teams again like they were last year, or regress back to their typical selves.

I would expect us to beat Missouri at home unless they're a top 10-15 team again. And if Texas is back to typical Texas, we would have a shot in Austin, but not if they're a top 5 team again. Texas loses to a team worse than us every other year anyway.

[Dawgface]

Any of you insiders have a report on how Spring practice is looking?

[Walkerhill]

Don't mean to be a downer, but I think 7-5 is extremely optimistic. My realistic expectation is 4-8 (floor as well) with a ceiling of 7-5. I would be extremely happy with 6-6 in the first year given what we lost vs what's coming back. I hope I'm wrong, though!!

These bold over/under projections crack me up. No one could possibly know at this point.

1) my original point was that we can have reasonable confidence in the offense improving, based on Lebby’s track record and the apparent fit of Shapen to this scheme. So far so good. Defense is a total question mark - we don’t even know what scheme we’ll be running and our co-coordinators have very little experience by SEC standards. These guys have coached alongside Saban, Muschamp, Durkin, Don Brown so they have a pedigree, and Lebby has coached with them so he knows what he is getting firsthand. But… the floor here is Peter Simon bad until proven otherwise.

2) Some of our opponents have concerns also. Napier is on the hot seat. UF always has talent but what has really been done to improve results? Mizzou was great last year but lost a ton and lost an elite DC and is breaking in a new one that is even more untested than ours. Arkansas brought back Petrino in what has to be one of the weirdest shotgun marriage coaching staffs ever. ASU was a dumpster fire last year. A&M have a ton of resources and made good coaching hires imo but still you never know with staff changes. Even Ole Miss - on paper they should beat us at home, but throw out the paper and the records in the Egg Bowl - especially if they have CFP pressure on them and we get to play spoiler. The idea these are unwinnable completely and our ‘ceiling’ should not even consider them is just poor ol State mentality and nothing more.

3) Also, the spring transfer portal could completely change the talent equation, not just for us, but for any of these teams.

Wake me up in July for win/loss predictions that mean diddly squat.

[was21]

Horrible take from the 1980s.

How 'bout the 1920's