A quick Snapshot of our weekend SP's

[Coach34]

They have been outstanding in 11/12 starts.

Those 11 starts- 45.2 IP/5 ER's- ERA 0.98...67 K's/12 BB's

1 bad start- 2.1 IP/7 ER's...3 K's/1BB

Total- 48 IP/12 ER's..70 K's/13 BB's

[BeardoMSU]

Night and day from last year.

[smootness]

While this is definitely reason to be hopeful, we have to acknowledge we have played what must be the weakest schedule in the country so far.

[parabrave]

While this is definitely reason to be hopeful, we have to acknowledge we have played what must be the weakest schedule in the country so far.

The main thing to take away is far less walks. And also to mention is fewer infield errors.

[CaptainObvious]

The main thing to take away is far less walks. And also to mention is fewer infield errors.

That is indeed all you can take away from those stats considering the competition level. We have 4 pretty solid games coming up. Southern Miss has played well so far and so has Evansville who has put up some gaudy numbers averaging double digits in runs and hits. They have scored over 14 runs in 4 of their 9 games coming into today, twice scoring 18 runs.

[MetEdDawg]

While this is definitely reason to be hopeful, we have to acknowledge we have played what must be the weakest schedule in the country so far.

Our SOS is 205. It's not great, but it's no where close to dead last.

I would have liked to not play a team like Mount St Mary's because they are pretty awful. But it's still much improved by our staff.

[Quaoarsking]

Yeah, it's pretty good. Our RPI is going to be deflated though with the weak schedule and picking up 4 bad losses already. I doubt we get selected for a Regional unless we can get to .500 in the SEC.

[parabrave]

That is indeed all you can take away from those stats considering the competition level. We have 4 pretty solid games coming up. Southern Miss has played well so far and so has Evansville who has put up some gaudy numbers averaging double digits in runs and hits. They have scored over 14 runs in 4 of their 9 games coming into today, twice scoring 18 runs.

USM has a brand new team/ They lost alot of last years team.

[Quaoarsking]

Over the last 10 seasons:

15-15 have been selected for the NCAA Tournament 6 of 9 times
14-16 have been selected 7 of 10 times
13-17 have been selected 4 of 10 times

No 12-18 team or less has been selected, though Alabama did get in in 2021 at 12-17.

Generally speaking, with 13-15 SEC wins, you need a good RPI to get selected, otherwise you're out. I don't expect us to have a good RPI. People often act like just getting to 13 SEC wins will be enough for us, but I don't think it will, not this year, and definitely not 12 or 11 wins.

[Todd4State]

Yeah, it's pretty good. Our RPI is going to be deflated though with the weak schedule and picking up 4 bad losses already. I doubt we get selected for a Regional unless we can get to .500 in the SEC.

We will likely get in to the regionals with 12 SEC wins unless we somehow have an overall losing record which is unlikely in a scenario where we win 12 SEC games.

If we win 13 SEC games we will be a lock.

[Todd4State]

Over the last 10 seasons:

15-15 have been selected for the NCAA Tournament 6 of 9 times
14-16 have been selected 7 of 10 times
13-17 have been selected 4 of 10 times

No 12-18 team or less has been selected, though Alabama did get in in 2021 at 12-17.

Generally speaking, with 13-15 SEC wins, you need a good RPI to get selected, otherwise you're out. I don't expect us to have a good RPI. People often act like just getting to 13 SEC wins will be enough for us, but I don't think it will, not this year, and definitely not 12 or 11 wins.

RPI at this time of year if very volatile. It's way too soon to assume our RPI will be bad. I wouldn't start worrying about RPi until week 3 of SEC play. Even then I would take it with a grain of salt until week five of SEC play.

[Todd4State]

Our SOS is 205. It's not great, but it's no where close to dead last.

I would have liked to not play a team like Mount St Mary's because they are pretty awful. But it's still much improved by our staff.

They're essentially the equivalent of a SWAC team. It really only hurts if you lose.

[Saltydog]

What about Holcombe?

[Todd4State]

What about Holcombe?

He'll have to figure it out if he wants to pitch. His mechanics are awful right now.

[HoopsDawg]

We will likely get in to the regionals with 12 SEC wins unless we somehow have an overall losing record which is unlikely in a scenario where we win 12 SEC games.

If we win 13 SEC games we will be a lock.

Guy posts a fact saying that no team has ever gotten a bid at 12-18. Then u just completely ignore said fact and say we likely get in at 12-18, lol. That's a message board for you.

[Coach34]

League note:

Missouri is bad. Lost series to Northern Kentucky this weekend and gave up a ton of runs. 10 in G2 and 16 today
Mississippi is not very good has lost their last 2 Friday nights

[Coach34]

Guy posts a fact saying that no team has ever gotten a bid at 12-18. Then u just completely ignore said fact and say we likely get in at 12-18, lol. That's a message board for you.

Q and I dont agree alot but the guy is good with stats.

[Todd4State]

Guy posts a fact saying that no team has ever gotten a bid at 12-18. Then u just completely ignore said fact and say we likely get in at 12-18, lol. That's a message board for you.

The last five years are more in line with my comment than the last ten if you do research. One of the 13 win teams that didn't make it the last five years was a South Carolina team that had a losing season overall.

[Quaoarsking]

RPI at this time of year if very volatile. It's way too soon to assume our RPI will be bad. I wouldn't start worrying about RPi until week 3 of SEC play. Even then I would take it with a grain of salt until week five of SEC play.

I agree with this statement in principle, but I think it's really likely that our RPI is lower than would be generally expected from our conference record, regardless of what that record turns out to be. We've probably played a very soft non-conference schedule and haven't even done that well in it. But we'll see. Austin Peay could turn out to be the best team in the ASUN and not a pair of RPI-killing losses, but I doubt any of the other teams we've played will help us at all.

[Quaoarsking]

The last five years are more in line with my comment than the last ten if you do research. One of the 13 win teams that didn't make it the last five years was a South Carolina team that had a losing season overall.

Here are all from the last 5 years:
2018 Kentucky (38-22, 13-17), RPI 31 - not selected
2018 Texas A&M (39-20, 13-17), RPI 37 - selected
2019 Missouri (34-22-1, 13-16-1), RPI 31 - not eligible
2019 Florida (33-24, 13-17), RPI 30 - selected
2021 Georgia (31-25, 13-17), RPI 44 - not selected
2021 LSU (34-22, 13-17), RPI 19 - selected
2022 South Carolina (27-28, 13-17), RPI 69 - not selected


Who knows if Missouri would have been selected in 2019. They might have been. Either way, I think 13-17 is very dicey for us. Maybe we'd get the benefit of the doubt for being an "elite" program with great support. Without actually running the numbers, I suspect we won't have an RPI in the 30s if we do end up 13-17. It would help our chances if Air Force, Austin Peay, Mt. St. Mary's, etc., all have really good conference records themselves.

[Coach34]

Austin Pea is pretty good- 10-2 now.

Ga Southern played #21 Campbell tough this weekend winning a game from them

[Todd4State]

I agree with this statement in principle, but I think it's really likely that our RPI is lower than would be generally expected from our conference record, regardless of what that record turns out to be. We've probably played a very soft non-conference schedule and haven't even done that well in it. But we'll see. Austin Peay could turn out to be the best team in the ASUN and not a pair of RPI-killing losses, but I doubt any of the other teams we've played will help us at all.

Even if it is I don't think many of us expected to host anything this year. The RPI's of our SEC opponents should be very high. LSU, Arkansas, and Texas A&M should easily be top 20 and very likely top 10. A win or two there helps. Most SEC teams we play will be in the top 50. Except maybe Mizzou and Ole Miss.

So at the end of the day it comes down to SEC wins and how we do there. We just have to make sure we win enough OOC games to stay over .500 which we likely will.

And like basketball your last ten games count. Meaning Mizzou is way more potentially damaging than Austin Peay no matter how they end up.

I'm guessing that unless we tank again we end up in the top 50 RPI more than likely if we play up to our potential as a team.

[Todd4State]

Austin Pea is pretty good- 10-2 now.

Ga Southern played #21 Campbell tough this weekend winning a game from them

Austin Peay plays Auburn this weekend. So that will probably tell the tale on them. It's easy to be hyper focused on OOC games like that right now but they really don't matter all that much in the grand scheme of things.

[bulldogcountry1]

They have been outstanding in 11/12 starts.

Those 11 starts- 45.2 IP/5 ER's- ERA 0.98...67 K's/12 BB's

1 bad start- 2.1 IP/7 ER's...3 K's/1BB

Total- 48 IP/12 ER's..70 K's/13 BB's

And no help from Holcombe, Ligon, Simmons, and, and Loftin.

[MStateDawg]

And no help from Holcombe, Ligon, Simmons, and, and Loftin.

Simmons' absence is baffling. He's 2 years post op and still not throwing. Why did we even waste the roster spot?

[PMDawg]

I would have liked to not play a team like Mount St Mary's because they are pretty awful.

Yeah, and they almost no hit us. LOL Luckily, we were able to scratch out a win in that game, thanks mostly to our pitching. So, the point is valid - pitching is improved and does not seem to be our problem this year. Hopefully the bats come around, because, frankly, they have been putrid so far. And that's against some really bad competition. We have a looooong way to go if we hope to hit SEC pitching. USM is going to be interesting to watch this week.

[RockyDog]

Mississippi Southern has the same record as MSU and is hitting .239 as a team against the likes of Marist, Indiana State, and Missouri State. Not sure i'd call that playing well if you are trying to prop them up above MSU.

[Coach34]

Simmons' absence is baffling. He's 2 years post op and still not throwing. Why did we even waste the roster spot?

Apparently had a setback. Word on the screet is to not expect anything from him or Pico this season

[Todd4State]

Apparently had a setback. Word on the screet is to not expect anything from him or Pico this season

The fact that Simmons still coaches first base is very telling.

[Todd4State]

And on a related note we're starting Karson Ligon tomorrow. We need to get him going.

[Coach34]

And on a related note we're starting Karson Ligon tomorrow. We need to get him going.

Yep. I'd like to see him go about 4 innings and then follow him with Loftin for 3

[R2Dawg]

Yep. I'd like to see him go about 4 innings and then follow him with Loftin for 3

Haven't kept up but whats up with Loftin?

[Todd4State]

Yep. I'd like to see him go about 4 innings and then follow him with Loftin for 3

That would be ideal. But maybe a bit optimistic given that Loftin has only thrown 1 maybe 2 innings this year. I'd be good with 3 from Ligon and 2 from Loftin and then let our bullpen go to work from there.

[MStateDawg]

Haven't kept up but whats up with Loftin?

Rumor is that he's been battling some tendonitis. He threw a couple innings vs JSU and looked pretty pedestrian.

[Commercecomet24]

Yep. I'd like to see him go about 4 innings and then follow him with Loftin for 3

Both he and Loftin could be a huge help if they can get it going.

[smootness]

Even if it is I don't think many of us expected to host anything this year. The RPI's of our SEC opponents should be very high. LSU, Arkansas, and Texas A&M should easily be top 20 and very likely top 10. A win or two there helps. Most SEC teams we play will be in the top 50. Except maybe Mizzou and Ole Miss.

So at the end of the day it comes down to SEC wins and how we do there. We just have to make sure we win enough OOC games to stay over .500 which we likely will.

And like basketball your last ten games count. Meaning Mizzou is way more potentially damaging than Austin Peay no matter how they end up.

I'm guessing that unless we tank again we end up in the top 50 RPI more than likely if we play up to our potential as a team.

The things you are saying do not line up. Just staying above .500 with 13 SEC wins and an RPI above 50 does not put us in the tournament.

[Todd4State]

The things you are saying do not line up. Just staying above .500 with 13 SEC wins and an RPI above 50 does not put us in the tournament.

See Alabama 2021. 12-17 with a RPI of 36. I picked top 50 because that's how the committee sees it.

[smootness]

See Alabama 2021. 12-17 with a RPI of 36. I picked top 50 because that's how the committee sees it.

So we are guaranteed it because one team on time with a resume sort of similar did it? Also, no idea what you mean by the committee seeing anything top 50 as the same thing.

[Todd4State]

So we are guaranteed it because one team on time with a resume sort of similar did it? Also, no idea what you mean by the committee seeing anything top 50 as the same thing.

I never said guaranteed. I said likely. Top 50 = high quad 1 RPI.

[Offshore Dawg]

While this is definitely reason to be hopeful, we have to acknowledge we have played what must be the weakest schedule in the country so far.

you are either throwing strikes or walking batters.

[Coach34]

our SOS is 110 out of over 300 teams. The hyperbole right now is off the charts

Mizzou and Mississippi have worse SOS right now. Tenn's is at 93 currently

[Commercecomet24]

our SOS is 110 out of over 300 teams. The hyperbole right now is off the charts

Mizzou and Mississippi have worse SOS right now. Tenn's is at 93 currently

It's because very few pay attention to any other teams, they just see our warts. Look around and it don't take long to see that very few have played against very stiff competition. You play and SEC schedule and play well and everything takes care of itself. Will we play well in the SEC? We'll see, but the fact the pitching staff isn't walking a small village every single game gives me some cause for hope!

[Homedawg]

It's because very few pay attention to any other teams, they just see our warts. Look around and it don't take long to see that very few have played against very stiff competition. You play and SEC schedule and play well and everything takes care of itself. Will we play well in the SEC? We'll see, but the fact the pitching staff isn't walking a small village every single game gives me some cause for hope!

Correct take on all counts.

[State82]

We'll see, but the fact the pitching staff isn't walking a small village every single game gives me some cause for hope!

That in itself should be good for an additional 5-6 conference wins at least.

[TheLostDawg]

I agree with this statement in principle, but I think it's really likely that our RPI is lower than would be generally expected from our conference record, regardless of what that record turns out to be. We've probably played a very soft non-conference schedule and haven't even done that well in it. But we'll see. Austin Peay could turn out to be the best team in the ASUN and not a pair of RPI-killing losses, but I doubt any of the other teams we've played will help us at all.

Or they'll be our long beach state of this year.. or worse