Net update - #33

[msstate7]

Down 1 spot. Truly a back breaker

[msstate7]

aTm down 15 spots to #40 after home loss to lsu

[ZedFedder]

We have a real shot at beating Bama. They are not the same team as last year.

[msstate7]

We have a real shot at beating Bama. They are not the same team as last year.

We need it too bc I can't squint enough to see us beating Tennessee

[Rawdawg]

Like I said in the other thread, it was a missed opportunity and nothing else. Defend home court and steal a couple on the road and we?ll be fine.

Rams had a BPM of -8.4 yesterday. You just can?t have that out of your point guard. He?s been through it though and I expect him to play much better this week.

[Coach34]

Being at home helps but it will def be tough to beat Tennessee. We should beat Bama at home. Lose at Kentucky and then beat Vandy at home. 2-3 to start is not terrible by any means out of that group

[Dawgology]

Being at home helps but it will def be tough to beat Tennessee. We should beat Bama at home. Lose at Kentucky and then beat Vandy at home. 2-3 to start is not terrible by any means out of that group

Really all depends on who the refs want to win

[80 Dawg]

Like I said in the other thread, it was a missed opportunity and nothing else. Defend home court and steal a couple on the road and we?ll be fine.

Rams had a BPM of -8.4 yesterday. You just can?t have that out of your point guard. He?s been through it though and I expect him to play much better this week.

Where do you find these BPM stats?

[msstate7]

Currently 27th (5-1 in q1 and q2 games)

Tough next 2 games...
Bama 5th
Kentucky 17th

Big games for us tonight...
FAU at Tulane
ASU at Washington

Washington state beat USC on road - 65th now in net

NW beat Penn state on road last night - 69th now in net

Be sweet if these 2 can get to 50h for q1 win

[msstate7]

24th in kenpom
30th in BPI
32nd in rpi

[Leeshouldveflanked]

What is the Highest Net ranking to not make the tournament?

[chef dixon]

We are in great shape.

What's consistent every year is you really make your resume in the non-conference. We racked up good wins and that will carry us for the season as long as we win the games we should in the league. The years we have been on the outside looking in we got no quality wins in the non-conference. You will not be left out of the tournament for losing to Southern. Quality wins matter so much more than bad losses.

[msstate7]

We are in great shape.

What's consistent every year is you really make your resume in the non-conference. We racked up good wins and that will carry us for the season as long as we win the games we should in the league. The years we have been on the outside looking in we got no quality wins in the non-conference. You will not be left out of the tournament for losing to Southern. Quality wins matter so much more than bad losses.

If we can beat bama Saturday, we can almost punch our ticket assuming no collapse

[StarkVegasSteve]

What is the Highest Net ranking to not make the tournament?

I think a team in the 20s or high 30s missed the tourney a couple of years ago.

[gtowndawg]

If we can bet Bama Saturday we are back to talking seed positioning as opposed to "are we in?"

[Coach34]

Winning cures all

Need to get to 11-7 somehow in conference for a quality seed

[StarkVegasSteve]

If we can bet Bama Saturday we are back to talking seed positioning as opposed to "are we in?"

For the time being, our problem is going to be road games. We’re 0-2 in true road games, 1-2 if you want to throw in Rutgers, this year. Add that to last year when we were 4-6 on the road and it tells me we will struggle with road games and lose to inferior teams this year on the road.

[Coach34]

Well lets look at our road games:

@Kentucky
@Fla
@Mississippi
@Bama
@Mizzou
@LSU
@Auburn
@A&M

I think we go 3-5 at best there and probably 2-6. Means We need to go 6-2 at worst at home. Kentucky will be huge and Auburn is pretty good but we will be favorites in the rest most likely. 10-8 in the SEC would put us 21-10 heading into the SEC Tourney and about a 9-10 seed most likely

But defense travels and we may find a way to 11 SEC wins

[Rawdawg]

Well lets look at our road games:

@Kentucky
@Fla
@Mississippi
@Bama
@Mizzou
@LSU
@Auburn
@A&M

I think we go 3-5 at best there and probably 2-6. Means We need to go 6-2 at worst at home. Kentucky will be huge and Auburn is pretty good but we will be favorites in the rest most likely. 10-8 in the SEC would put us 21-10 heading into the SEC Tourney and about a 9-10 seed most likely

But defense travels and we may find a way to 11 SEC wins

21-10 with our schedule and we?re a 7 seed. Right now, according to Torvik, we profile as a 5-6 seed.

[TALL DAWG]

We have a long way to go.
But, if we don?t collapse as stated above we?ll have a good chance for a good seed.

[PGHBulldogBG]

We need to win @Mizzou @LSU and need to win two of the three home games against Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky. If we do that and don’t drop any other home games we will be 10-8 and will make the tournament. They aren’t going to leave out a team in the SEC with a winning conference record that also has 11 non conference wins

[Coach34]

We need to win @Mizzou @LSU and need to win two of the three home games against Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky. If we do that and don’t drop any other home games we will be 10-8 and will make the tournament. They aren’t going to leave out a team in the SEC with a winning conference record that also has 11 non conference wins

easily in at 10-8. Probably in at 8-10

[99jc]

We need it too bc I can't squint enough to see us beating Tennessee

squint more

[msstate7]

squint more

Or get glasses. I'm still shocked. This is a very good Tenn team.

[PGHBulldogBG]

We have not beat an AP top 10 team since 2002. This just shows that for all those years we did not have proper coaching. Jans may not be perfect, but he is the best coach we have had in hoops in a long time. He gives me hope he can put together quality teams most years, make the tournament and possibly advance and give us a special March while he is here

[msstate7]

Washington st just beat Arizona. Very nice win for us

[smootness]

For the time being, our problem is going to be road games. We’re 0-2 in true road games, 1-2 if you want to throw in Rutgers, this year. Add that to last year when we were 4-6 on the road and it tells me we will struggle with road games and lose to inferior teams this year on the road.

Everyone struggles on the road in conference. Check out the top 10 this week.

[msstate7]

Down 5 spots to #33

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Defense not doing so hot so far.

[msstate7]

Defense not doing so hot so far.

I agree, but to be fair...
Kenpom off rankings:
Bama - 1st
Tenn - 20th

This was a really tough week, and as frustrating as last night was, we did what we had to

[msstate7]

On the bright spot, Washington state is now 51st; this has a very good chance of becoming a Q1 win. Also, north Texas now 60th; this is now a solid Q2 win instead of a borderline one

[msstate7]

#33 currently, and Washington state is now a q1 win. Hopefully they keep winning.

Tonight's games besides ours...
Nebraska at Rutgers (-2.5)
Maryland at NW (-4.5)
North Texas (-2.5) at ECU
Tulane at UAB (-2.5)
UCLA at asu (-3.5)

We're getting 6.5 at Kentucky

[MoreCowbell]

#33 currently, and Washington state is now a q1 win. Hopefully they keep winning.

Tonight's games besides ours...
Nebraska at Rutgers (-2.5)
Maryland at NW (-4.5)
North Texas (-2.5) at ECU
Tulane at UAB (-2.5)
UCLA at asu (-3.5)

We're getting 6.5 at Kentucky

Rutgers won
Northwestern up 9
North Texas won
Tulane lost
ASU up 8

[msstate7]

Down 1 spot to #34.

Washington st at Stanford tonight. Need WSU to keep winning

[KOdawg1]

Truth is, winning 1 out of Tennessee, Bama, and Kentucky is what we needed to do. We did that. Now, we could've really solidified ourselves with another win, but we're still in a decent spot.

This Saturday is a must win. Vandy's net is 244. A loss to them at home would sink us.

Then next week we have Florida on the road and Auburn at home. Gotta find a way to split that. Lose both and things start to get dicey

[maroonmania]

Our defense has to get better for us to win against the upper half of the league. I'm not asking our team to hold these really good teams in the 50s but we aren't going to win any games allowing 82 and 90 points like we have the last 2. We just aren't good enough offensively to keep up with that kind of scoring pace. We held TN to 72 which is more what we need but even in that game we were fortunate that TN came out very cold from 3 range missing a LOT of open shots. Of course they heated up in the 2nd half and scored 50. Right now our defense is just not playing at the level we did last year. Not sure why either since we have a ton of returning players. A big part of it is rebounding which appears to be a huge issue for us at the moment and plays into why we are giving up more points this year.

[gtowndawg]

Our defense has to get better for us to win against the upper half of the league. I'm not asking our team to hold these really good teams in the 50s but we aren't going to win any games allowing 82 and 90 points like we have the last 2. We just aren't good enough offensively to keep up with that kind of scoring pace. We held TN to 72 which is more what we need but even in that game we were fortunate that TN came out very cold from 3 range missing a LOT of open shots. Of course they heated up in the 2nd half and scored 50. Right now our defense is just not playing at the level we did last year. Not sure why either since we have a ton of returning players. A big part of it is rebounding which appears to be a huge issue for us at the moment and plays into why we are giving up more points this year.

I think the league knows how to attack out defense (traps on the baseline, etc.) - and with no real offensive threat to counter that (as a team I mean) it's going to be hard to go 8-8 I'm afraid. It might also explain why Jans did well in the NCAA tournament (playing teams that have not played his defense multiple times before). Just a theory.

[Coach34]

Our problem is we struggle against teams that can score. Bama and Kentucky average 90 PPG to lead the conference. Tenn is 5th at 79 PPG. That 11 point difference is huge

We defend well but our guards are short and top notch guys shoot better over them.

Beat Vandy and Auburn at home to get things back on track. Fla gonna be tough to beat on the road.

[PMDawg]

Truth is, winning 1 out of Tennessee, Bama, and Kentucky is what we needed to do. We did that. Now, we could've really solidified ourselves with another win, but we're still in a decent spot.

This Saturday is a must win. Vandy's net is 244. A loss to them at home would sink us.

Then next week we have Florida on the road and Auburn at home. Gotta find a way to split that. Lose both and things start to get dicey

I think we really have to win both FL and Auburn to get back on track.

[Captain Falcon]

I think we really have to win both FL and Auburn to get back on track.

Nah I do not think both are must win at all. Just going 2-2 against Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss, Bama coming up would be huge for us. After that we have five games in a row where we will likely be favored.

Not at all in crisis mode yet, though we do have to beat a terrible Vandy team on Saturday, no doubt about it.

[msstate7]

Bad day for our net... down to #40. Vandy's net combined with lots of our previous opponents losing wasn't good.

This week...
At #45 Florida
#6 auburn

Need 1-1

[R2Dawg]

Bad day for our net... down to #40. Vandy's net combined with lots of our previous opponents losing wasn't good.

This week...
At #45 Florida
#6 auburn

Need 1-1

Agree, something seems odd though. We are one of only 3 SEC teams with 5 Quad 1 & 2 wins. We are 2-3 in quad 1 games and 3-? in quad 2.

[msstate7]

Agree, something seems odd though. We are one of only 3 SEC teams with 5 Quad 1 & 2 wins. We are 2-3 in quad 1 games and 3-? in quad 2.

Washington state loss yesterday cost us a Q1 win; we're 1-3 in Q1 and 4-1 in Q2. WSU is 53rd though, so that could be a Q1 win again soon, hopefully

[msstate7]

Memphis (-3.5) at Tulane
Rutgers at Illinois (-12.5)

Maybe one of these go our way today

[MetEdDawg]

Northwestern and Washington State losing didn't help at all. Georgia Tech lost yesterday and have now lost 6 of their last 7.

I personally think we miss out on the tournament this year. We play Auburn twice, still have Bama and Kentucky again, and we are too inconsistent offensively to count any other conference games as wins.

[msstate7]

Northwestern and Washington State losing didn't help at all. Georgia Tech lost yesterday and have now lost 6 of their last 7.

I personally think we miss out on the tournament this year. We play Auburn twice, still have Bama and Kentucky again, and we are too inconsistent offensively to count any other conference games as wins.

February is very favorable for us. Right now, bracket matrix has us in 77/78

[msstate7]

ESPN BPI has us a favorite in 8 of remaining 13 sec games

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Our guards better shoot better than 7-28 like they did against Vandy

[msstate7]

Our guards better shoot better than 7-28 like they did against Vandy

Hubbard is in a slump 3/14 yesterday and 1/11 Wednesday night. Hes better than this, so I'm not too concerned YET

[MetEdDawg]

Also notice Davis is getting reduced minutes. 15 minutes yesterday and 3 of his 4 lowest minutes totals have come in our last 3 games.

Hubbard needs to distribute a little more. Taking too many 15+ foot jumpers and not great 3 point shots. He had 3 assists yesterday which is tied for his 2nd highest. Needs to continue working to distribute

[HoopsDawg]

Agree, something seems odd though. We are one of only 3 SEC teams with 5 Quad 1 & 2 wins. We are 2-3 in quad 1 games and 3-? in quad 2.

Vandy so bad we beat them by 13 and drop 7 spots.

[msstate7]

Vandy so bad we beat them by 13 and drop 7 spots.

Wasn't just the win vs vandy. Washington state lost (now Q2 win), north Texas lost, and NW lost. Bad day for our previous opponents

[smootness]

Hubbard is in a slump 3/14 yesterday and 1/11 Wednesday night. Hes better than this, so I'm not too concerned YET

That just means he is due.

[Quaoarsking]

You can't really get bent out of shape over day-to-day NET movement. There's so many moving parts that mix into the formula.

[State82]

You can't really get bent out of shape over day-to-day NET movement. There's so many moving parts that mix into the formula.
Kinda like studying baseball RPI the first week of March.

[msstate7]

Memphis (-3.5) at Tulane
Rutgers at Illinois (-12.5)

Maybe one of these go our way today

1 of 2...
Rutgers blown out
Tulane beat Memphis

[msstate7]

Found the reason we dropped so much... north Texas dropped 15 spots today. Dang

[Commercecomet24]

Kinda like studying baseball RPI the first week of March.

I miss the days when we could just look at won/loss and conference records lol! To complicated now!

[PGHBulldogBG]

I miss the days when we could just look at won/loss and conference records lol! To complicated now!

Exactly. It’s crazy we have to focus so much on what other teams we played did. I understand punishing teams like Ole Miss on purpose for only playing 1 or 2 P5 teams but most teams like us play a decent number of power 5 teams on neutral courts and won them so it’s a bit silly to be judged based on how they do

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Hubbard is in a slump 3/14 yesterday and 1/11 Wednesday night. Hes better than this, so I'm not too concerned YET

Agreed that Hubbard was 1-11 against Kentucky on Wednesday. But he was 4/11 against Vandy on Saturday.

[Johnson85]

That just means he is due.

Probably, but always worry about freshmen hitting a wall late in the season though. Not sure that's a thing anymore with them playing so much AAU year round. But I'm assuming he hasn't been required to play defense like at state before.

[msstate7]

Agreed that Hubbard was 1-11 against Kentucky on Wednesday. But he was 4/11 against Vandy on Saturday.

Thanks

[Quaoarsking]

Having your NET ranking partially depend on what your opponents do isn't that different from the days where your RPI ranking partially depended on what your opponents do

[RocketDawg]

If South Carolina hangs on and beats Kentucky (it's 33-25 at the half), I suppose that would be a better loss for us?

[Homedawg]

If South Carolina hangs on and beats Kentucky (it's 33-25 at the half), I suppose that would be a better loss for us?

Can't hurt. Uk is gonna for sure be a quad one at end of the year. Msstate7 will keep us posted I know

[msstate7]

Can't hurt. Uk is gonna for sure be a quad one at end of the year. Msstate7 will keep us posted I know

I like your reasoning... I have no idea if this helped or hurt. I do know GT along again isn't gonna help though

[Homedawg]

I like your reasoning... I have no idea if this helped or hurt. I do know GT along again isn't gonna help though

And the acc is bad. They don't have many quad one chances. So gtech adding a quad one win to up their own standing isn't great

[Coach34]

And the acc is bad. They don't have many quad one chances. So gtech adding a quad one win to up their own standing isn't great

SEC is much better than the ACC

[Homedawg]

SEC is much better than the ACC

And it's not close

[PGHBulldogBG]

The ACC is so bad that Virginia is still probably the 3rd best team in that league outside Duke and UNC and this is probably one of the worst if not worst Virginia teams Bennett has had. FSU might be next best and they lost a ton of non conference games. Miami and Clemson are not living up to expectations

[Pancho]

What is contributing to this lack of overall talent in the ACC?

[msstate7]

Big games for us tonight besides ours...
Tulane (-6.5) at UTSA
Illinois (-2.5) at NW
Utah at wash st (-1.5)

[msstate7]

#42 (down 2 spots)

Big games for us tonight...
SMU (-1.5) at north Texas
Arizona st at Oregon (-8.5)

[msstate7]

Big games for us tonight besides ours...
Tulane (-6.5) at UTSA
Illinois (-2.5) at NW
Utah at wash st (-1.5)

Tulane loss was bad. UTSA has a net in the 270s
NW and wash st wins were nice. WSU is back a Q1 win

[Coach34]

We have to win Saturday. Got to get to 8 SEC wins

[Johnson85]

We have to win Saturday. Got to get to 8 SEC wins

I guess I just never learn but I really didn't think we'd have to sweat out selection Sunday this year.

Maybe we still won't but we don't seem to be heading in the right direction.

[Rawdawg]

We have to win Saturday. Got to get to 8 SEC wins

This. We can?t afford another home loss because frankly you can?t say we?ll win a road game to make up for it.

[smootness]

Having your NET ranking partially depend on what your opponents do isn't that different from the days where your RPI ranking partially depended on what your opponents do

This will always be the case for anything that involves SOS.

[klong-dog]

We have to win Saturday. Got to get to 8 SEC wins



Against a pissed off Bruce Pearl lead squad.... I sure don't like our chances.
They are experienced and have as much size and even better athletes than us, plus they can score and defend. Auburn 75-67

[Pancho]

I'm beginning to wonder if we even accept the upcoming NIT bid...............

[msstate7]

North Texas beat SMU. Nice win for us

[StarkVegasSteve]

So we currently sit at 43 in the NET with 12 games remaining. 6 of those are Q1 opportunities. The issue is that only two of them are at home(Auburn and Kentucky). We somehow need to find a way to win 2-3 of those Q1 games and win the rest, which is not an easy task since 2 of the Q2 games are road games, and we play like hot garbage on the road.

7-5 or better coming home in SEC play and we are in safely. 6-6 and we are sweating but probably still in the play in. Anything worse, hello NIT.

[klong-dog]

Well, we're about to drop these next 3. Hope we can finish strong again but hard to see it.

[msstate7]

#38 up 5 spots

NW #61. They have a shot at becoming a Q1 win.

Washington st now #41. This one is getting more solid as a Q1.

Be great if Arizona st (#118) and Tulane (#117) would start winning games to get in top 100 to make these wins Q2.

Games to watch today...
Purdue (-10.5) at Rutgers (#101)
North Texas (#71) at fau (-9.5)

[R2Dawg]

#38 up 5 spots

NW #61. They have a shot at becoming a Q1 win.

Washington st now #41. This one is getting more solid as a Q1.

Be great if Arizona st (#118) and Tulane (#117) would start winning games to get in top 100 to make these wins Q2.

Games to watch today...
Purdue (-10.5) at Rutgers (#101)
North Texas (#71) at fau (-9.5)

The whole quad thing is interesting and in many ways I like it. Wonder why football don't pick that up?

I know one reason why - it would take out all the bias for blue bloods and the favorite eye test.

If we just win enough SEC games, we in. We are a NCACCT team, no doubt.

[msstate7]

The whole quad thing is interesting and in many ways I like it. Wonder why football don't pick that up?

I know one reason why - it would take out all the bias for blue bloods and the favorite eye test.

If we just win enough SEC games, we in. We are a NCACCT team, no doubt.

A split this week would be huge, but tough to get. After bama next Saturday, this is our February schedule...
Georgia
At mizzou
Ark
OM
At lsu
Kentucky

We should rack up some wins in this stretch.

[R2Dawg]

A split this week would be huge, but tough to get. After bama next Saturday, this is our February schedule...
Georgia
At mizzou
Ark
OM
At lsu
Kentucky

We should rack up some wins in this stretch.

Agree we got a better schedule upcoming. OM and UK at home, Hump gonna be rockin.

[maroonmania]

The whole quad thing is interesting and in many ways I like it. Wonder why football don't pick that up?

I know one reason why - it would take out all the bias for blue bloods and the favorite eye test.

If we just win enough SEC games, we in. We are a NCACCT team, no doubt.

In some ways though it seems a little silly. For example, why should beating the #50 in the Net be worth significantly more than beating the #51 team in the Net. Bottom line is it shouldn't be.

[Quaoarsking]

I would support reforming it so that the 20 or so ranks on the edges of the Quadrants are allocated.

So a home game over #25 could be 0.75 Q1 games and 0.25 Q2 games. A home game against #30 could be 0.5 Q1 and 0.5 Q2, etc.

[msstate7]

In some ways though it seems a little silly. For example, why should beating the #50 in the Net be worth significantly more than beating the #51 team in the Net. Bottom line is it shouldn't be.

I don't think it makes a lot of difference to NET; but humans look at resumes, and a Q1 win looks better than Q2

[Rawdawg]

A win this week erases the USC and UF losses and basically puts you in position to make a run at seeding. Going 2-0 and you?ve started the run. 0-2 and we?re back to holding serve at home and looking for a couple of road wins in February.

[Commercecomet24]

Well, we're about to drop these next 3. Hope we can finish strong again but hard to see it.

Oops!

[smootness]

In some ways though it seems a little silly. For example, why should beating the #50 in the Net be worth significantly more than beating the #51 team in the Net. Bottom line is it shouldn't be.

There just has to be a cut off somewhere. It is unavoidable.

[RocketDawg]

A win this week erases the USC and UF losses and basically puts you in position to make a run at seeding. Going 2-0 and you?ve started the run. 0-2 and we?re back to holding serve at home and looking for a couple of road wins in February.

Turns out the South Carolina loss wasn't all that bad after they handled Kentucky. Beating Tennessee and Auburn should more than make up for that loss and the one to Southern.

[R2Dawg]

In some ways though it seems a little silly. For example, why should beating the #50 in the Net be worth significantly more than beating the #51 team in the Net. Bottom line is it shouldn't be.

Maybe but just like the NCAAT field, you have to cut it off somewhere. I do like the real in season evaluations of how teams do not just an eye test pass on teams that the selection group favor like we do in football.

[maroonmania]

I'm fine to use a team's Net ranking as an evaluation for the tourney. That, to me, is just another form of an RPI. But to say a team does or doesn't get in the tourney because of their Quad 1 record or Quad 2 record etc. I'm not real crazy about. Not all Quadrant records are equal. If a team beats 3 top 10 teams that's a heck of a lot different that if a team has 3 wins over teams in the 40s and so forth and so on. Breaking everything into quadrants to evaluate teams seems artificial.

[msstate7]

I'm fine to use a team's Net ranking as an evaluation for the tourney. That, to me, is just another form of an RPI. But to say a team does or doesn't get in the tourney because of their Quad 1 record or Quad 2 record etc. I'm not real crazy about. Not all Quadrant records are equal. If a team beats 3 top 10 teams that's a heck of a lot different that if a team has 3 wins over teams in the 40s and so forth and so on. Breaking everything into quadrants to evaluate teams seems artificial.

NET accounts for that.

[maroonmania]

Looks like our Net Ranking is back up to #38 after the Auburn win.

[R2Dawg]

I'm fine to use a team's Net ranking as an evaluation for the tourney. That, to me, is just another form of an RPI. But to say a team does or doesn't get in the tourney because of their Quad 1 record or Quad 2 record etc. I'm not real crazy about. Not all Quadrant records are equal. If a team beats 3 top 10 teams that's a heck of a lot different that if a team has 3 wins over teams in the 40s and so forth and so on. Breaking everything into quadrants to evaluate teams seems artificial.

Agree the Q1 & Q2 is tricky. You can only play who you play but that is where conf record can make or break you.

[Johnson85]

NET accounts for that.

The NET doesn't utilize quadrants at all, correct? That's just what talking heads and the committee do to have an easy way to identify "good" wins and how teams do against tournament quality teams, correct?

I do think it's absurd how wide the range is for teams that can give you a quad 1 win. I would assume the 30th best team is generally a lot closer to the 60th best team than the top 5. Certainly not as pronounced as in football but I think there are still a pretty good drop off from the truly top teams to the second tier.

[msstate7]

NET explained

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-05-12/net-explained-ncaa-adopts-new-college-basketball-ranking-replace-rpi

[msstate7]

#37 (no change)

Need some wins from NW. They're currently #59. Need them in the top 50 for a Q1 win.

Big games today...
NW at Purdue (-12.5)
Penn st at Rutgers (-6.5)
UAB at north Texas (-7.5)

GT beating North Carolina helped out some. They need to keep winning. They have home wins over Duke and Carolina now, so that loss while not good looks better

[msstate7]

#44 (down 7)

Here's sec...
#5 bama
#6 Tenn
#8 auburn
#26 Kentucky
#38 South Carolina
#39 Florida
#49 aTm
#61 OM
#85 Georgia
#93 lsu
#130 ark
#137 mizzou
#226 vandy

[BuckyIsAB****]

#44 (down 7)

Here's sec...
#5 bama
#6 Tenn
#8 auburn
#26 Kentucky
#38 South Carolina
#39 Florida
#49 aTm
#61 OM
#85 Georgia
#93 lsu
#130 ark
#137 mizzou
#226 vandy

My God we would rip the football team apart if they played like this bunch does and getting excited to pat them on the back about beating teams ranked 85 and below

[Quaoarsking]

My God we would rip the football team apart if they played like this bunch does and getting excited to pat them on the back about beating teams ranked 85 and below

When was the last time the football team didn't play like this on the road against a likely top 10 team / SEC champion?

[Homedawg]

When was the last time the football team didn't play like this on the road against a likely top 10 team / SEC champion?

There's a fact

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

When was the last time the football team didn't play like this on the road against a likely top 10 team?

2020 vs UGA. Took like 45 scholarship players and make UGA fight for that W

[msstate7]

2020 vs UGA. Took like 45 scholarship players and make UGA fight for that W

So 4 seasons ago.

[Homedawg]

My God we would rip the football team apart if they played like this bunch does and getting excited to pat them on the back about beating teams ranked 85 and below
We do have wins against 2 top 8 teams so there's that too.

[Quaoarsking]

The takeaway from the NET ratings is "we're still on track to be one of the 68 teams to make the tournament."

This will be the first time we've done it in back-to-back years since 2008 and 2009. People will complain about anything.

[msstate7]

The takeaway from the NET ratings is "we're still on track to be one of the 68 teams to make the tournament."

This will be the first time we've done it in back-to-back years since 2008 and 2009. People will complain about anything.

If we do make it, it will be only the 6th time in our history to go back-to-back. It would be 2/2 for Jans.

[BuckyIsAB****]

That?s fair points. But all I was saying was no one would be talking about how we save the season by beating bad teams and not even getting off the bus on the road.

[msstate7]

That?s fair points. But all I was saying was no one would be talking about how we save the season by beating bad teams and not even getting off the bus on the road.

Maybe it will change with no saban, but as long as I see Saban and oats on their sidelines, I knew we were beat. They own us

[Quaoarsking]

At this point in our program, I define seasons like this:
Good season - make the NCAA Tournament
Meh season - make the NIT
Bad season - don't make either


Obviously I want us to become a more prestigious program that gets high seeds and makes the 2nd (or 3rd) weekend more often, but I just don't think that's a realistic expectation of the program today. If Jans gets us into the Tournament again this year (which isn't guaranteed but still 80% according to Torvik), I would say he's 2/2 on having a good season.

[LC Dawg]

My God we would rip the football team apart if they played like this bunch does and getting excited to pat them on the back about beating teams ranked 85 and below

We celebrated a bowl streak with multiple.500 and sub .500 seasons.

[BuckyIsAB****]

We celebrated a bowl streak with multiple.500 and sub .500 seasons.

And we are celebrating this team beating Vandy at home to put us at 3-6 in conference play

[msstate7]

And we are celebrating this team beating Vandy at home to put us at 3-6 in conference play

Funny you didn't mention the 2 top 10 wins at home.

[RezDog7]

NIT bound at best. This team is hot garbage.

[LC Dawg]

And we are celebrating this team beating Vandy at home to put us at 3-6 in conference play

No one is celebrating anything. We are 3-6 against the toughest conference schedule in the country so far and have wins over the #6 and #8 NET teams (along with the Vandy win that you mentioned).
We haven't yet played the five worst teams in the conference.
Our schedule gets easier now and we have to win the easier games if we want to make the NCAA tournament.
That's just starting facts.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

So 4 seasons ago.

3 seasons yeah.

For football, we only have 1 (maybe 2) road top 10 games a year, and the talent gap is quite wide between us and them. So yes, you have to go back a few season to find a time our team played well at a top 10 team. That's the criteria of my comment; "when was the last time our football team played well on the road vs a top 10 team?"

[MoreCowbell]

If we do make it, it will be only the 6th time in our history to go back-to-back. It would be 2/2 for Jans.

We are luckily getting a lot of credit for barely making it last year with the same roster. Bracketologists see that and just assume we will figure it out and get in. If we had not made it last year I think at this point most would have us outside looking in.

[msstate7]

We are luckily getting a lot of credit for barely making it last year with the same roster. Bracketologists see that and just assume we will figure it out and get in. If we had not made it last year I think at this point most would have us outside looking in.

You think that's what they're doing instead of looking at our solid net, BPI, rpi, and kenpom?

[Quaoarsking]

NIT bound at best. This team is hot garbage.

With all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about. Every metric out there has us a likely NCAA Tournament team.

[Johnson85]

You think that's what they're doing instead of looking at our solid net, BPI, rpi, and kenpom?

I think people are just getting confused by how shitty we look when we play shitty. Some of that is selective memory. Good basketball teams have inexplicably shitty games every year. Some of it is we really do seem to have a bigger drop off than most teams when we play shitty. Usually that's going to be a sign of poor coaching or poor attitudes. Sometimes it's just the way a team is built and being really dependent on one thing (like making 3's) that it just derails the team when it's not working that night. I honestly don't know what this team's deal is. Last year we seemed to show up and play D almost every game. We played like shit sometimes because we just couldn't hit the broad side of a barn shooting, but seemed to still play D and work the offense even when the shooting didn't give us a real chance. Seems like this year we just lose intensity when things don't go well. Or maybe just don't have intensity so things don't go well. Just odd to have so many returning players and seem to take a step back on something that seems like a character issue. Maybe last year everybody was just excited to have good coaching and responded really well, and now are letting off some and not responding to Jans requirements' as well.

[Quaoarsking]

Personally I think shitty is "not even going to make the NIT." Rick Ray's teams were shitty. After the first 2 years, none of Howland's teams were shitty, and definitely neither of Jans's NCAA teams.

Maybe we're just too strict on ourselves.

[Captain Falcon]

This team is not bad at all, they just are too flawed to be SEC championship contenders. We have beaten two legit contenders and likely should have beaten Bama in Starkville too. but we lack the consistency that the top teams have.

This team has all the makings of a Top 30-40 team that on its best day can beat almost anyone and on its worst day can get whooped or take a bad loss.

We have taken our lumps against a hard schedule and now it is time to take care of business in games we will be favored in.

[Homedawg]

You think that's what they're doing instead of looking at our solid net, BPI, rpi, and kenpom?

And two top 10 wins... smh.

[Homedawg]

We are luckily getting a lot of credit for barely making it last year with the same roster. Bracketologists see that and just assume we will figure it out and get in. If we had not made it last year I think at this point most would have us outside looking in.

Um no

[Commercecomet24]

With all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about. Every metric out there has us a likely NCAA Tournament team.

This!

[Captain Falcon]

We do not have much wiggle room anymore and have to win these upcoming games, but yes, we are 100% a tourney team if the season ended today.

[MoreCowbell]

You think that's what they're doing instead of looking at our solid net, BPI, rpi, and kenpom?

Look I am all for this team and have been but we have been disappointing overall. Our net is ok, nothing great. We are 3-6 in conference right there next to Ark, Vandy and Mizzou and cannot win on the road. We have 2 good wins but also 2 terrible losses.

I definitely think making it last year with same returning roster plays a factor. When before the season experts already had us penciled in it carries weight for sure.

Look at Florida. Better overall record, conference record, NET, RPI, KenPom, beat us head to head and we are in ahead of them. Difference? We made it in last year.

[msstate7]

Florida has 1 Q1 win. We have 3

[Goldendawg]

This is last year's team, except for Hubbard failing in our lap and now DJ (who is now injured) is out. Jan's recruiting last year and portal evaluations and signees did nothing to improve this team from last year. Taylor, a poor fit and gone. Jimmy Bell, a beast in OOC games. Little help in SEC play. DJ's minutes will probably go to a walk on. Fort not a difference maker. Murphy in doghouse and will probably hit portal at season's end and can't say I blame him. Tolu's game has been figured out by opposing SEC coaches. Jans has to prove he can recruit and find an offensive identity next year. Today's game is not defense first or you don't play. Players want to score & play in an exciting offense. This team is again what it is. Late seed for NCAA Tourney and one and done. They are very hard to watch and get excited about at times for even two games in a row. We will be there for the GA game. Worried as our mediocre roster now has injuries.

[MoreCowbell]

Delete

[MoreCowbell]

Florida has 1 Q1 win. We have 3

Q1/Q2 record: FLA 4-7 MSU 5-7
You just disregarded every other metric that you used for us being in. I am not bashing this team just stating my opinion and backing it up with examples.

I put $750 on us to go 9-9 in conference. Thought that was easy money. Have been high on this team all year and we can beat anybody. Does not mean we have not been disappointing.

[msstate7]

Q1/Q2 record: FLA 4-7 MSU 5-7
You just disregarded every other metric that you used for us being in. I am not bashing this team just stating my opinion and backing it up with examples.

I put $750 on us to go 9-9 in conference. Thought that was easy money. Have been high on this team all year and we can beat anybody. Does not mean we have not been disappointing.
Our resumes are very similar, but we have 2 top 10 net wins. They don't have that. Our high end wins are very pretty on a tourney resume

[Quaoarsking]

Q1/Q2 record: FLA 4-7 MSU 5-7
You just disregarded every other metric that you used for us being in. I am not bashing this team just stating my opinion and backing it up with examples.

I put $750 on us to go 9-9 in conference. Thought that was easy money. Have been high on this team all year and we can beat anybody. Does not mean we have not been disappointing.

You're probably going to win that bet. Congrats!

[msstate7]

#44 still.

We picked up a Q2 win with Rutgers now at #100 .

Big games today...
Georgia (#88) at us (-8.5)
North Texas (#86, -4.5) at Tulsa (#177)
Nebraska (#52) at NW (#60, -5.5)

[msudawg1200]

Our resumes are very similar, but we have 2 top 10 net wins. They don't have that. Our high end wins are very pretty on a tourney resume

And we lost to #197 at home. Can't believe we lost that game.

[PGHBulldogBG]

And we lost to #197 at home. Can't believe we lost that game.

That game is single-handedly putting us on the bubble. We would probably be a 7 or 8 seed without that loss to date since we have those UT and Auburn wins.

[Coach34]

Being 3-6 in the SEC right now has a lot to do with us being on bubble also

Must win tonight

[Quaoarsking]

A loss tonight would change everything. Remember 12 years ago when a home loss to Georgia killed our season and Stansbury's career.

100% must win tonight.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

A loss tonight would change everything. Remember 12 years ago when a home loss to Georgia killed our season and Stansbury's career.

100% must win tonight.

Yep. Our record isn't great. We are in NCAA consideration because of who we have played. The next 3 games don't help the strength of schedule or Quad opportunities. So they have to be WINS.

[Captain Falcon]

A loss tonight would change everything. Remember 12 years ago when a home loss to Georgia killed our season and Stansbury's career.

100% must win tonight.

That 2012 Georgia game started the collapse but we still almost saved it. And then lost to them again in the first round of the SEC Tourney. That one was for sure the nail in the coffin.

[Captain Falcon]

Yes, goes without saying tonight (and the two after it) are must win. Three straight Q3 games, gotta have all three of them.

[msudawg1200]

What is the status of Hubbard and DJ?

[StarkVegasSteve]

What is the status of Hubbard and DJ?

Hubbard is good to go, he came back in the other night. DJ is probably out 2 weeks.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I believe we are the only team in the country that played 8 Quad 1 games in the first 9 conference games. All of our conference games were Quad 1 except for Vandy. Obviously, the reason South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Florida were Quad 1 is because they were on the road.

We have 9 games remaining. The only Quad 1 games will be Auburn, Kentucky (maybe), and Texas A&M (maybe because it's on the road).

So now it's time to pile up wins. We started off 3-6. Now we need to go 6-3.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Hubbard is good to go, he came back in the other night. DJ is probably out 2 weeks.

After Georgia and Missouri, we don't play for 7 days (against Arkansas). There is no midweek game next week. So maybe DJ won't miss as many games.

[R2Dawg]

I believe we are the only team in the country that played 8 Quad 1 games in the first 9 conference games. All of our conference games were Quad 1 except for Vandy. Obviously, the reason South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Florida were Quad 1 is because they were on the road.

We have 9 games remaining. The only Quad 1 games will be Auburn, Kentucky (maybe), and Texas A&M (maybe because it's on the road).

So now it's time to pile up wins. We started off 3-6. Now we need to go 6-3.

Yep, 6-3 and we in. 5-4 and we got to win 1-2 in SECT for shot.

[confucius say]

Analytics have us favored in the next four. At least 65-35 in all four. Then the fifth at LSU is 50-50.

[msstate7]

Analytics have us favored in the next four. At least 65-35 in all four. Then the fifth at LSU is 50-50.

Dang shame that dj got hurt right before this stretch or winnable games. Oh well, hopefully Murphy, Scott, and/or jones step up. Be great if one steps up and can hit some outside shots to really open it up for tolu

[Coach34]

Yep, 6-3 and we in. 5-4 and we got to win 1-2 in SECT for shot.

Disagree. I think 8 wins gets us in. We go 9-9? We'll be a damn 7-8 seed

[Coach34]

Dang shame that dj got hurt right before this stretch or winnable games. Oh well, hopefully Murphy, Scott, and/or jones step up. Be great if one steps up and can hit some outside shots to really open it up for tolu

Play both bigs together some. Work Hi/lo in the paint with them and make the other 3 stay behind the arc. That will give teams problems

[confucius say]

Dang shame that dj got hurt right before this stretch or winnable games. Oh well, hopefully Murphy, Scott, and/or jones step up. Be great if one steps up and can hit some outside shots to really open it up for tolu

I think we will start Hubbard, Moore, Jones, Cam, Tolu tonight. And I think Jones give you another shooter and better offense than DJ.

But I think Hubbard, Moore, Cam, Murphy, Tolu could be your best offensive grouping of Murphy picks up where he left off.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Yep, 6-3 and we in. 5-4 and we got to win 1-2 in SECT for shot.

6-3 we are in. I think if we go 5-4, we are still probably in. But I just don't want to chance it.

[msstate7]

#44 (no change)

There was some good movement for us last night...

NW up to #55 from #60. This is close to becoming a Q1 win. They host #100 Penn state Sunday.

North Texas up to #77 from #86. This is close to becoming a Q2 win. They travel to #45 SMU Sunday.

Tonight's games...
Arizona state at Colorado (-15.5)
Washington st (-8.5) at Oregon st

Rutgers is #98, so be pulling for them to get to #75 for a Q2 win.

[msstate7]

aTm lost 5 spots after winning at mizzou last night. Not sure what their opponents did, but that's concerning

[State82]

aTm lost 5 spots after winning at mizzou last night. Not sure what their opponents did, but that's concerning

Yikes. That is kinda sucky. I know they are really bad but that is a tough reward for winning on the road.

[msudawg1200]

aTm lost 5 spots after winning at mizzou last night. Not sure what their opponents did, but that's concerning

If that's the case we'd likely fall 15-20 spots with a loss

[gtowndawg]

aTm lost 5 spots after winning at mizzou last night. Not sure what their opponents did, but that's concerning

Dang

[R2Dawg]

Disagree. I think 8 wins gets us in. We go 9-9? We'll be a damn 7-8 seed

I'm not saying we might not could get in at 8 wins but that would depend on what some others likely do. I think we go 9-9 we in regardless. I was looking at it from a control your own destiny standpoint.

[confucius say]

Disagree. I think 8 wins gets us in. We go 9-9? We'll be a damn 7-8 seed

Not possible. We won't be 7-8 seed at 9-9 in the league. That's insane.

[confucius say]

aTm lost 5 spots after winning at mizzou last night. Not sure what their opponents did, but that's concerning

Where are you seeing that? Aggie has moved up 4 spots from 50 to 46 since sunday and their only game was at Mizzou last night. So if they dropped 5 spots after winning last night then that would mean they moved up 9 spots from Sunday to Wednesday without playing, which seems impossible this time of year, and then fell back 5 yesterday. Seems unlikely.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net

[Coach34]

Not possible. We won't be 7-8 seed at 9-9 in the league. That's insane.

UPig was an 8 seed last year with an 8-10 SEC record.

[MoreCowbell]

You're probably going to win that bet. Congrats!

Man I hope so

[MoreCowbell]

You're probably going to win that bet. Congrats!

I bet the over (19.5 wins) the day before conference play started. 9-9 in SEC would put us at 20.

[StarkVegasSteve]

UPig was an 8 seed last year with an 8-10 SEC record.

I think the difference is that Arkansas played 17 Q1 games last year. They also did not have a Q4 loss anchoring them down. However, I think 9-9 and we are in safely. Bubble is not great this year.

[MoreCowbell]

Not possible. We won't be 7-8 seed at 9-9 in the league. That's insane.

Definitely possible. If you go by Warren Nolan prediction of 20-11 and 9-9 in conference we would have a 30 NET with the #13 SOS. 7-9 vs Q1/Q2 opponents with 3/4 top 20 wins and 6/7 wins against tourney teams.

8 seed would probably be too high honestly.

[Dawgs87]

aTm lost 5 spots after winning at mizzou last night. Not sure what their opponents did, but that's concerning

I think that aTm actually went up 5 spots, from 51 to 46

[msstate7]

I think that aTm actually went up 5 spots, from 51 to 46

Wow, I'm dumb. Thanks for this correction bc that's good news if we win Saturday

[confucius say]

UPig was an 8 seed last year with an 8-10 SEC record.

Without a lost to southern and a 21 in the NET. Not happening for us.

[confucius say]

Wow, I'm dumb. Thanks for this correction bc that's good news if we win Saturday

I don't expect we would do the same.

[msstate7]

I don't expect we would do the same.

I just don't wanna be punished for winning

[StarkVegasSteve]

I just don't wanna be punished for winning

I would rather not be punished at all but if we have to, I would rather be punished slightly from winning than a huge hit with a loss.

[Coach34]

Definitely possible. If you go by Warren Nolan prediction of 20-11 and 9-9 in conference we would have a 30 NET with the #13 SOS. 7-9 vs Q1/Q2 opponents with 3/4 top 20 wins and 6/7 wins against tourney teams.

8 seed would probably be too high honestly.

Exactly- we'll be an 8 if we get to 9-9. The SEC is even stronger this year than last- looking at putting a record 9 teams in

[confucius say]

I just don't wanna be punished for winning

Agree. That's the down side of playing horrible teams. Good thing is that it is on the road though, so we may move up slightly. Then next week vs Ark I would not expect any upward movement even if we win.

The 10 point margin rule is important in games like this. We need to win by double figures.

[confucius say]

Exactly- we'll be an 8 if we get to 9-9. The SEC is even stronger this year than last- looking at putting a record 9 teams in

Bookmark.

[PGHBulldogBG]

I want us to make the tournament with an 8-10 SEC record, but the chance of it happening this year is extremely slim. Our non conference resume does not have the same wins it had last year. We beat Big East champ 2 seed Marquette on a neutral court and we beat a TCU team that was a 6 seed. This year our best non conference wins were bubble teams NW and Wazzu on neutral courts. That was equal to our non conference neutral win last year against Utah. Also, we only had 1 non conference loss last year to Drake on a neutral court which was quad 2 and they won their conference and made the NCAA as a 12 seed. We did not have a horrendous home loss to Southern either. Our resume was much better although I will say the bubble may be a bit softer this year so that could help. We just need to get to 9-9 and that should secure a bid, but 10-8 would be the best. Also I don’t really think the selection committee looks at conference tournaments much anymore unless an underdog wins the conference. The last few years some teams have got hot in their tournaments and made the final or semis and lost but didn’t get in. Vandy was a prime example last year and I believe Rutgers was the same

[Coach34]

I want us to make the tournament with an 8-10 SEC record, but the chance of it happening this year is extremely slim. Our non conference resume does not have the same wins it had last year. We beat Big East champ 2 seed Marquette on a neutral court and we beat a TCU team that was a 6 seed. This year our best non conference wins were bubble teams NW and Wazzu on neutral courts. That was equal to our non conference neutral win last year against Utah. Also, we only had 1 non conference loss last year to Drake on a neutral court which was quad 2 and they won their conference and made the NCAA as a 12 seed. We did not have a horrendous home loss to Southern either. Our resume was much better although I will say the bubble may be a bit softer this year so that could help. We just need to get to 9-9 and that should secure a bid, but 10-8 would be the best.

Damn guys you have to start looking at the metrics and not the name on the jersey.

2023 OOC SOS- 197
2024 OOC SOS- 110

2023 SOS- 52
2024 SOS- 19

We are stronger this year than last year by a good margin