Over the last 10 seasons:

15-15 have been selected for the NCAA Tournament 6 of 9 times
14-16 have been selected 7 of 10 times
13-17 have been selected 4 of 10 times

No 12-18 team or less has been selected, though Alabama did get in in 2021 at 12-17.

Generally speaking, with 13-15 SEC wins, you need a good RPI to get selected, otherwise you're out. I don't expect us to have a good RPI. People often act like just getting to 13 SEC wins will be enough for us, but I don't think it will, not this year, and definitely not 12 or 11 wins.