Bracketmatrix shows me if we beat Tenn- we are in the NCAA Tourney

[AlmostPositive]

Great post. May need to explain Stockholm Syndrome to the board. Common sense is not so common these days.

You are probably right. My notion of it, which may not be exactly right, is coming under the spell of your oppressor, like kidnap victims accepting the legitimacy of their captors.

Cutting to the chase, if we beat TN and LSU and don't get an invitation, the fix will have been in.

[Quaoarsking]

You are probably right. My notion of it, which may not be exactly right, is coming under the spell of your oppressor, like kidnap victims accepting the legitimacy of their captors.

Cutting to the chase, if we beat TN and LSU and don't get an invitation, the fix will have been in.

Major conference teams with RPIs around 50 get left out every year.

[MedDawg]

Seems to me there's a sort of Stockholm syndrome sympathy for the idea that we don't deserve to be in the NCAAT because of a sub-mediocre early schedule.

Here's newsflash for anyone in this group: Your schedule doesn't determine anything at all about how good your team is. Winning and losing does. You are clinging to a popular fiction if you buy the idea that other teams with lesser bodies of work should go ahead of us because they bravely lost to higher quality teams in the non-conference phase.

RPI and SOS have fully factored in everything related to the schedule. You're double dipping, illogically, to say RPI SOS AND bad non-con games are working against us. The selection committee may be thinking that way, but they need to ask themselves what their goal is in selecting the field.

Yes, and I'd like to add it's stupid that our RPI would be better than it is now if we scheduled Duke and North Carolina and lost by 50. The RPI is 75% scheduling (ours and our opponents) and only 25% our wins/losses. Ridiculous!

Plus, as I pointed out in another thread, if we schedule #150 teams instead of #300 teams, our RPI would be much much better, but the #150 teams are just as beatable as the #300 teams. There should be some sort of maximum RPI penalty, so that all teams worse than #150 are treated the same in the RPI.

[smootness]

Yes, and I'd like to add it's stupid that our RPI would be better than it is now if we scheduled Duke and North Carolina and lost by 50. The RPI is 75% scheduling (ours and our opponents) and only 25% our wins/losses. Ridiculous!

Plus, as I pointed out in another thread, if we schedule #150 teams instead of #300 teams, our RPI would be much much better, but the #150 teams are just as beatable as the #300 teams. There should be some sort of maximum RPI penalty, so that all teams worse than #150 are treated the same in the RPI.

There seems to be a disconnect. I think some are saying, 'We will be in if we do X,' when what they mean is, 'I think we should be in if we do X.'

And I think some are saying, 'No, it is not a definite that we would be in,' and some are hearing, 'No, we shouldn't get in.'

The bottom line is, the selection committee will determine who gets in, and they have no set criteria. So none of us know what will happen. Period. And yes, RPI factors in SOS. You can say that is dumb all you want, but it is a fact, and the committee obviously looks at RPI. They also, however, look at other things. And even though SOS is factored into RPI calculations, the reality is that we have seen in the past that if teams have similar RPIs and similar resumes, the committee gives more credit to those who scheduled tougher in the OOC. That is simply a fact. You can disagree with it all you want, but it is true.

None of this is Stockholm Syndrome. I'm not claiming the selection committee to be pure and great and always logical. I'm just telling you what I've seen them do in the past. I obviously hope like crazy we get in. And I think that if we win the next 2, we will deserve to get in. But I don't think it is a guarantee at that point that we will get in.

[Quaoarsking]

None of the mock brackets factor in any bid-stealers at this point, but there are bound to be at least a couple. If we head to St. Louis as a "last 4 in," we may find ourselves the odd man out if the enough conference tournaments have upset winners.

Just ask St. Mary's from the year Stans and Varnado won the SECT. They thought they were in, but were suddenly out when we won our tournament. A team (or 2 or 3 or 4) finds themselves in that situation every year.

[smootness]

None of the mock brackets factor in any bid-stealers at this point, but there are bound to be at least a couple. If we head to St. Louis as a "last 4 in," we may find ourselves the odd man out if the enough conference tournaments have upset winners.

Just ask St. Mary's from the year Stans and Varnado won the SECT. They thought they were in, but were suddenly out when we won our tournament. A team (or 2 or 3 or 4) finds themselves in that situation every year.

This is a great point. The projected brackets right now are assuming that no teams who would not otherwise get in will win their conference tournament. The bubble can only shrink from here, it won't expand.

If WKU wins the CUSA tourney, for example, they take one of those spots, as Middle Tennessee is likely getting in either way.

ETA: Lunardi now has us as the #4 team out. I would imagine beating Tennessee would probably move us in for his projection. And then further in with a win over LSU. But I still think a first game loss in the SECT would put us right on the edge.

[AlmostPositive]

There is what the selection committee will do, and then there is what they should do. If they see their mission as Select-NCAA-Teams-And-Shame-Under-shechedulers, then maybe they can justify leaving us out.

[Quaoarsking]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

Updated again. Now the 4th team out but not in on many brackets

ETA: it would be nice if the site would mark the first four out on each bracket somehow